United States redistricting, 2022

Reapportionment

Article One of the United States Constitution establishes the United States House of Representatives and apportions Representatives to the states based on population, with reapportionment occurring every ten years. The decennial Census determines the population of each state. Each of the fifty states is guaranteed at least one representative, and the Huntington–Hill method is used to assign the remaining 385 seats to states based on the population of each state. Congress has provided for reapportionment every ten years since the passage of the Reapportionment Act of 1929.

Since 1913, the House has consisted of 435 representatives, a number set by statute, though the number of Representatives temporarily increased in 1959. Reapportionment also affects presidential elections, as each state is guaranteed electoral votes equivalent to the number of Representatives and Senators representing the state.

Prior to the 2022 elections, each state apportioned more than one Representative will draw new congressional districts based on the reapportionment following the 2020 Census. Based on projections of population growth, Northeastern and Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota may lose seats, while Western and Southern states such as California, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia may gain seats.^[4] The Southern states of Alabama and West Virginia may also lose seats.^[4]

Congressional redistricting methods

Congressional redistricting methods by state:

•   Independent commission
•   Politician commission
•   Passed by legislature with gubernatorial approval
•   Passed by legislature, governor cannot veto
•   Passed by legislature, simple majority veto override
•   One at-large district

Each United States Representative represents one congressional district, which encompasses all or part of a single state. The states have wide latitude in the re-drawing of congressional districts, a process known as redistricting. State power over redistricting is subject to limits set by the United States Constitution, rulings of the federal judiciary, and statutes passed by Congress. In the case of Wesberry v. Sanders, the Supreme Court established that states must draw districts that are equal in population "as nearly as is practicable." Subsequent court cases have required states to redistrict every ten years, although states can redistrict more often than that depending on their own statutes and constitutional provisions.^[5] Since the passage of the 1967 Uniform Congressional Districts Act, most states have been barred from using multi-member districts, and all states currently use single-member districts.^[6] The Voting Rights Act of 1965 establishes protections against racial redistricting plans that would deny minority voters an equal opportunity to elect representatives of their choice. The Supreme Court case of Thornburg v. Gingles established a test to determine whether redistricting lines violate the Voting Rights Act. In some states, courts have required the creation of majority-minority districts.^[7] Many states have also adopted other criteria, including compactness, contiguity, and the preservation of political subdivisions (such as cities or counties) or communities of interest.^[8] Some states, including Arizona, require the drawing of competitive districts.^[8]

In most states, the state legislature draws the new districts, but some states have established redistricting commissions.^[9] California, Arizona, Idaho, and Washington use independent commissions to draw House districts, while Hawaii and New Jersey use "politician commissions" to draw House districts.^[9] In all other states with multiple House districts, the legislature draws district lines, although some states have advisory commissions that can play a major role in drawing lines, and other states have backup commissions if the state legislature is unable to draw the lines itself.^[9] Most states draw new lines by passing a law the same way any other law is passed, but some states have special procedures.^[9] Connecticut and Maine require a 2/3 super-majorities in each house of the state legislature for redistricting plans, while district lines are not subject to gubernatorial veto in Connecticut and North Carolina.^[9] The legislatures of Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia can override gubernatorial vetoes with a simple majority vote,^[10] giving governors in those states little leverage in the drawing of new district maps.

Partisan control of Congressional redistricting

The elections preceding 2022, especially the 2018 elections and 2020 elections, will determine which party controls the redistricting process in each state. In many states, districts are drawn with the intent to benefit certain political groups, including one of the two major political parties, in a practice known as gerrymandering.

Legislative redistricting methods

State legislative redistricting methods by state:

•   Independent commission
•   Politician commission
•   Passed by legislature with gubernatorial approval
•   Passed by legislature, governor cannot veto
•   Passed by legislature, simple majority veto override

The states have wide latitude in re-drawing legislative districts, but the Supreme Court case of Reynolds v. Sims established that states must draw districts that are "substantially equal" in population to one another. Federal court cases have established that deviation between the largest and smallest districts generally cannot be greater than ten percent. Some states have laws requiring less deviation. Court cases have also required states to redistrict every ten years, although states can redistrict more often than that depending on their own statutes and constitutional provisions.^[5] States are free to employ multi-member districts, and different districts can elect different numbers of legislators.^[14] The Voting Rights Act of 1965 establishes protections against racial redistricting plans that would deny minority voters an equal opportunity to elect representatives of their choice. The Supreme Court case of Thornburg v. Gingles established a test to determine whether redistricting lines violate the Voting Rights Act.^[7] Many states have also adopted other criteria, including compactness, contiguity, and the preservation of political subdivisions (such as cities or counties) or communities of interest.^[8] Some states, including Arizona, require the drawing of competitive districts,^[8] while other states require the nesting of state house districts within state senate districts.^[15]

Thirteen states use independent or politician commissions to draw state legislative districts. In the other states, the legislature is ultimately charged with drawing new lines, although some states have advisory or back-up commissions. Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oregon have backup commissions that draw district lines if the legislature is unable to agree on new districts. Iowa, Maine, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont employ advisory commissions. In Connecticut and Maine, a 2/3 super-majority vote in each house is required to create new districts, while in Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, and North Carolina, the governor cannot veto redistricting plans.^[16] The legislatures of Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia can override gubernatorial vetoes with a simple majority vote,^[10] giving governors in those states little leverage in the drawing of new district maps.

Partisan control of legislative redistricting

The elections preceding 2022, especially the 2018 elections and the 2020 elections, will determine which parties and individuals control the redistricting process in states without independent commissions. In many states, legislative districts are drawn with the intent to benefit certain political groups, including one of the two major political parties.

Potential Changes

Voters in Michigan may vote in November 2018 on a volunteer-led ballot initiative that would establish an independent redistricting commission that would draw both state legislative and congressional districts. Studies have shown that Michigan's current districts have some of the highest partisan bias in the country.^[24][25]

Potential 2018 ballot measures may also occur in Ohio, Missouri, Oregon, South Dakota, Colorado, and Utah prior to redistricting which would create independent commissions or politician commissions responsible for redistricting.^[26][27]