Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018

November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)

 
Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull

Incumbent Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican


The 2018 Maryland gubernatorial election will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Maryland. The Republican and Democratic primaries were held on June 26, 2018.[1] Incumbent Republican Governor Larry Hogan is running for reelection to a second term in office. His Democratic opponent is the former president and CEO of the NAACP, Ben Jealous.

Background

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win since 1988; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26-points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26-points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25-points in 2008 (62%-37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony G. Brown by a margin of 52-47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[2] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

Currently, Governor Hogan has a 68% approval rating, the second highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who has a 71% approval rating.[3] In a staunchly Democratic state, he has high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Hogan
Statewide Officials
State Legislators
Local Officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 210,935 100.00%
Total votes 210,935 100.00%

Democratic primary

A county map of the democratic primary results with Ben Jealous in blue and Rushern Baker in green.

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings[53]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember[54]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former Vice Chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman[55]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for Governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so a notice had to be posted to tell voters that vote will count for this ticket if cast for Kamenetz and Ervin. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race.[56])

Declined

Endorsements

Rushern Baker
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate[75]
  • David Trone, businessman[16]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Evrin (withdrew)
U.S. Representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
  • Edward Burroughs, Prince George’s County Board of Education Member
  • Ryan Dorsey, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Jessica Fitzwater, Frederick County Councilmember
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators

Local officials

  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council[96]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council[96]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. Representatives
Attorney General
State Senators
  • Susan Lee, State Senator
  • Will Smith, State Senator
State Delegates
  • Al Carr, State Delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, State Delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, State Delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, State Delegate
  • Karen Young, State Delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, State Delegate
  • Marice Morales, State Delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, State Delegate
  • David Moon, State Delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, State Delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, State Delegate
Local Officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase[16]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
Individuals
Alec Ross
Individuals
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, State Delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, State Delegate
Local Officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council
Krish Vignarajah
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rushern
Baker
Valerie
Ervin
Ben
Jealous
Kevin
Kamenetz†
Richard
Madaleno
Jim
Shea
Krish
Vignarajah
Other Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 505 ± 4.5% 25% 7% 23% 9% 6% 5% 2%[102] 22%
OpinionWorks May 29 – June 6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 16% 5% 16% 4% 4% 4% 7%[103] 44%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 532 ± 6.0% 16% 8% 21% 6% 4% 4% 2%[104] 39%
Mason-Dixon February 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 26% 14% 15% 4% 3% 2% 3%[105] 32%
Goucher College February 12–18, 2018 409 ± 4.8% 19% 10% 12% 2% 2% 2% 6%[106] 47%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 501 ± 4.5% 24% 14% 14% 5% 1% 2% 8%[107] 33%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 400 ± 5.0% 28% 10% 11% 3% <1% 1% 1%[108] 46%
Goucher College September 14–18, 2017 324 ± 5.4% 13% 6% 8% 2% 2% 1% 22%[109] 44%

† Deceased candidate

Results

Democratic primary results[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Jealous 231,895 39.6%
Democratic Rushern Baker 171,696 29.3%
Democratic Jim Shea 48,647 8.3%
Democratic Krish O'Mara Vignarajah 48,041 8.2%
Democratic Rich Madaleno 34,184 5.8%
Democratic Kevin Kamentez/Valerie Ervin 18,851 3.2%
Democratic Alec Ross 13,780 2.4%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 9,405 1.6%
Democratic James Jones 9,188 1.6%
Total votes 585,687 100.0%

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018 deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[112]

Green State Central Committee Designation[112]
April 20 - April 25
Candidate Delegates in favor Delegates against Delegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers 15 0 5

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for Governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010[113]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith

Results

Candidate Votes in favor Votes against Not voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith 32 1 0

General election

Debates

Governor Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their first and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television.[114]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[115] Likely R September 14, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[116] Likely R August 31, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[117] Likely R September 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[118] Likely R September 14, 2018
Daily Kos[119] Likely R September 5, 2018
Fox News[120][lower-alpha 1] Likely R October 9, 2018
Politico[121] Likely R October 9, 2018
Governing[122] Likely R September 14, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Ben
Jealous (D)
Other Undecided
University of Maryland October 4–7, 2018 648 LV ± 4.5% 58% 38% 0% 3%
814 RV ± 4.0% 56% 36% 0% 2%
Gonzales Research October 1–6, 2018 806 ± 3.5% 54% 36% 2%[123] 9%
Mason-Dixon September 24–26, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 52% 37% 2%[124] 9%
Goucher College September 11–16, 2018 472 ± 4.5% 54% 32% 2%[125] 9%
Gonzales Research August 1–8, 2018 831 ± 3.5% 52% 36% 1%[126] 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) July 10–14, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 34% 14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018 968 ± 4.5% 51% 39% 10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018 617 ± 3.9% 44% 31% 22%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 50% 33% 17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 823 ± 3.5% 49% 36% 15%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 49% 33% 18%

Results

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Larry Hogan/Boyd Rutherford (incumbent)
Democratic Ben Jealous/Susan Turnbull
Libertarian Shawn Quinn/Christina Smith
Green Ian Schlakman/Annie Chambers
Write-ins
Majority
Turnout

See also

References

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  77. @DonnaFEdwards (May 15, 2018). "You're terrific, but I'll be supporting my friend @ValerieErvin for MD Governor should she choose to run" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  81. Wiggins, Ovetta (23 March 2018). "U.S. Sen. Kamala D. Harris endorses Ben Jealous in run for Maryland governor". Maryland Politics. The Washington Post. Retrieved 7 May 2018.
  82. 1 2 Amara, Kate (13 July 2017). "Bernie Sanders endorses Ben Jealous for governor".
  83. Rosario Dawson [@rosariodawson] (11 July 2017). "Wish I could be there!Excited for the people of Maryland to get to vote for @BenJealous for Governor! What a benefi…" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  96. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Kevin Kamenetz". www.facebook.com.
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  98. "Rich will be the first openly LGBTQ Governor of Maryland". Victory Fund. November 14, 2017.
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  101. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1An1xLI5htcXrjJ9GaiOpIUJmYHnprpXV/view
  102. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe and James Jones with <1%
  103. Alec Ross with 1%, someone else with 6%
  104. Alec Ross with 2%
  105. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%
  106. Alec Ross 3%, Ralph Jaffe 1%, Other 2%
  107. Maya Rockeymoore 6%, Alec Ross with 1%, Ralph Jaffe with 0%
  108. Alec Ross with 1%
  109. Doug Gansler 11%, Maya Rockeymoore 8%, Alec Ross with 1%. Other 2%
  110. 1 2 "2018 Gubernatorial Primary Election State Candidates List". Maryland State Board of Elections. December 13, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  111. "Rev Annie Chambers Elected to the Baltimore Resident Advisory Board". Maryland Green Party. April 3, 2017. Retrieved December 7, 2017.
  112. 1 2 Maryland Green Party (April 30, 2018). "Candidate for Governor Ian Schlakman Secures Green Nomination". Maryland Green Party. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
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  114. https://www.c-span.org/video/?451834-1/maryland-governors-debate
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  116. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  117. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  118. "2018 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. August 9, 2018.
  119. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. August 13, 2018.
  120. "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  121. "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  122. "Governors Races July Ratings". Governing. July 16, 2018.
  123. Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  124. Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  125. Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  126. Shawn Quinn (L) with 1%, Ian Schlakman (G) with 0%
Official campaign websites
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