Iowa caucuses, 2020

The 2020 Iowa caucuses are expected to be the first votes of that year's U.S. presidential cycle and are currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2020.[1]

Background

The Iowa caucuses first gained national attention in the 1970s when George McGovern leveraged the momentum from winning second place in the Democratic caucus as an underdog to winning the Democratic nomination in the 1972 election. [2] Future president Jimmy Carter was also able to use his win in the Iowa caucus of 1976 to propel himself to the presidency. These wins proved to be early momentum for the candidates and led to national attention on the caucuses themselves. [3]

Procedure

Historically, in the Democratic caucuses, Iowans divide into groups based on which candidate they support. Then, the voters are given a chance to switch groups, if they desire to do so. Once the groups are finalized, the chairman will decide how many representatives each group is entitled to. [4]

In the Republican caucuses, there is a straw poll which indicates the group's preferences for delegates. With an incumbent President running for reelection, the Republican caucuses will not have a straw poll and delegates will just be appointed by state party officials.

Candidates

As of July 2018, no candidates beside John Delaney and Andrew Yang have officially announced intentions to run in 2020. However, there were several prominent Democrats who visited Iowa in 2016 and 2017, potentially indicating their intention to run. These politicians include Sen. Bernie Sanders, Gov. Martin O'Malley, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. Tim Ryan, and Rep. Seth Moulton. [5][6]

Candidate Most recent position Candidacy Total pledged delegates Contests won

John Delaney		 U.S. Representative from Maryland
(2013–present)		 July 28, 2017

(Campaign)		 0 / 4051 (0%) 0

Polling

In early 2017, Martin O'Malley completed a poll of Iowa voters which was sponsored by his leadership PAC and was cited as evidence of his intention to run in the 2020 election. The poll asked about 9 potential candidates with O'Malley coming out on top with 18% and followed closely behind by Sen. Cory Booker with 17%. [7]

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of error Cory Booker Julian Castro Andrew Cuomo Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris Amy Klobuchar Martin O'Malley Sheryl Sandberg Howard Schultz Others Undecided
Public Policy Polling[7](for an O'Malley-aligned PAC) 1,062 March 3–6, 2017 – 17% 4% 8% 3% 3% 11% 18% 4% 1% – 32%

References

  1. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 25 August 2018.
  2. ↑ "Iowa Caucus History: George McGovern's Early Momentum in 1972". IPTV. 2016-11-29. Retrieved 2018-01-11.
  3. ↑ "History May Not Help Figure Out Iowa". NPR.org. Retrieved 2018-01-11.
  4. ↑ "Iowa Caucus: Iowa Caucus – History, Candidate Profiles, Campaign Events and Caucus News". 2007-12-22. Retrieved 2018-01-12.
  5. ↑ Swanson, Ian (2018-01-08). "Dem hopefuls flock to Iowa". TheHill. Retrieved 2018-01-12.
  6. ↑ Scherer, Michael (2018-05-12). "In wide-open 2020 presidential field, Democrats are road-testing messages — and trying to redefine their party". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2018-06-28.
  7. 1 2 Debenedetti, Gabriel (March 15, 2017). "O'Malley tests 2020 waters with Iowa poll". Politico. Retrieved March 15, 2017.
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