COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland

The HSC began testing for COVID-19 during February 2020, as of 19 February there were 35 completed tests all of which returned negative results.[6] On 27 February, the HSC confirmed that the first presumptive case had been discovered in Northern Ireland in a woman who had returned from Italy, the case was sent to the Public Health England reference laboratory where it was confirmed as Northern Ireland's first case on 29 February.[7][7]

Cases continued to rise throughout early March with cases rising to seven by the end of the first week.[8] On 9 March Belfast City Council voted to cancel the annual St Patrick's Day parade in the city.[9] By the end of the second week the HSC started to advise people showing symptoms to isolate for seven days, cases had also jumped to 45 by the 15th March.[10] On St Patrick's Day, parades across all of Northern Ireland had been cancelled as cases reached 52.[11]

On 19 March, Northern Ireland recorded its first death from COVID-19, with cases reaching 77.[12][13] Reacting to the news, First Minister Arlene Foster said "This is a sad day for Northern Ireland. Our thoughts and prayers are first and foremost with the family and friends of the patient who has died. And we are immeasurably grateful to our health service staff who cared for this person. This is not unexpected news. We knew that this pandemic would inevitably cost precious lives. We cannot stop it. But it is incumbent on all of us to do whatever we can to slow its spread and shield those most vulnerable from the effects of this virus."[13] On 22 March, a second person died from the coronavirus, with cases rising to 128.[14]

On 20 March, the UK Government announced measures to further tackle the spread of the virus which included closing bars, restaurants, gyms and many other social venues.[15]

Also on 20 March the UK Government announced a Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, were it would offer grants to companies to pay 80% of a staff wage each month up to a total of £2,500 per a person, if companies kept staff on their payroll. The scheme would cover three months' wages and would be backdated to the start of March.[16] Later in March the Self Employed Income Support Scheme (SEISS) was announced.[17] The scheme paid a grant worth 80% of self employed profits profits up to £2,500 each month, on companies who's trading profit was less than £50,000 in the 2018-19 financial year or an average less than £50,000 over the last three financial tax years for those who suffered a loss of income. Her Majesty's Revenue & Customs (HMRC) were tasked with contacting those who were eligible and the grant was taxable.

Cases confirmed by 20 March were 86 in total.[18]

On 21 March, Northern Ireland suffered its largest increase in new cases to date with 22 new cases confirmed.[19] On 22 March, a second person died from the virus.[14]

On 23 March, the government announced that new measures were to be introduced to increase social distancing, with wide-ranging restrictions made on freedom of movement, enforceable in law,[20] for a planned "lockdown" period intended to last for three weeks.[21]

The government directed people to stay at home throughout this period, with the only following exceptions:[22]

• essential purchases
• once-daily exercise, either alone or with members of their household
• medical needs
• providing care for others
• essential work travel where working from home is not possible

Many other non-essential activities, including all public gatherings and social events except funerals, are to be proscribed.[20]

A third victim died from COVID-19 on 23 March, followed by two more deaths on 24 March.[23][24] On 25 March, the largest increase in new cases to date was recorded as cases rose by 37 to 209, with 2 new deaths also being confirmed.[25] Speaking at a press conference on 25 March, Northern Ireland's Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael McBride said he believes the actual figure of cases to be "many thousands" and testing would increase to approximately 1000 new tests everyday.[26]

On 26 March, a further 3 people died from the virus with 32 new confirmed cases.[27] On 27 March, 34 new cases and 3 new deaths were confirmed, with leading GPs in Northern Ireland writing an open letter calling for a complete lockdown, stating "Please hear and act on our heartfelt plea and move to adopt a 'complete lockdown' as we have seen in other countries, at the earliest opportunity. Time is of the essence.".[27] On 28 March, Northern Ireland experienced the highest rate of increased new cases yet with 49 new cases, and a further 2 deaths.[28]

Electronic display sign normally used for traffic management displays COVID19-related advices on an almost deserted Chichester Street in Belfast City Centre, 24 March.

On the evening of the 28 March the Northern Ireland Executive announced new stricter measures to combat the spread of the virus. Measures included:

• The ability to force businesses to shut and crack down on people who leave their homes without a "reasonable excuse".
• Penalties, ranging from fixed penalty notices to fines of up to £5,000, are being introduced as enforcement.
• Anyone who can work from home must work from home
• Employers must facilitate working from home where it is feasible
• No employer should compel an employee to come to work if it is feasible to work from home
• Every employer must take all reasonable steps to safeguard the health, safety and wellbeing of employees during the COVID-19 emergency, whether working from home or in the workplace
• Every employer must have particular regard to the safety of employees in the workplace and must put into effect the guidance on social distancing issued by the Department for the Economy
• Every employer has a legal duty to ensure, so far as it is reasonably practicable, the health, safety and welfare at work of all employees
• Where a business is failing to observe the Department for the Economy guidance and breaching the legal duty on health and safety, the statutory authorities will take robust action, which may include prosecution for criminal offences
• Where necessary, the Executive Office will also use its power of direction to close or restrict businesses that do not ensure the safety of their employees.

Commenting on the new measures, Arlene Foster said "We are asking the people of Northern Ireland to make fundamental changes to how they live their lives. But we are doing this to keep you safe, to flatten the curve of the Covid-19 infection so that the health service has the capacity to deal with those who need their help the most." Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill also commented "Each one of us has a personal responsibility to do everything we can to fight back against Covid-19 for the good of everyone across society. We will use every power we have to ensure people stay at home so that we save as many lives as we possibly can."[29][30][31]

On 29 March, new cases announced by the Public Health Agency were 86 and 6 new deaths, the highest for both in a single day to date.[32]

Following the announcement on 31 March that there were 53 new cases and 6 new deaths, the totals at the end of the month of March were 586 confirmed cases and 28 deaths.[33]

A deserted A1 on the outskirts of Newry during lockdown on 4 April.

On 1 April, a further 103 cases and 2 deaths were confirmed as Health Minister Robin Swann warned that 3000 people could die in the first wave of the pandemic.[34] On 2 April, 85 more cases and 6 more deaths were reported, bringing the total number of confirmed cases and deaths to 774 and 36 respectively.[35] On 3 April, the largest increase in deaths and cases to date was published by the Public Health Agency with 130 cases and 12 deaths, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 904 and the number of deaths to 48.[36]

On 4 April, a further 94 new cases and 8 new deaths were announced, as Northern Ireland's first coronavirus testing centre for healthcare workers opened at the SSE Arena, Belfast.[37] Health Minister Robin Swann said the new testing facility in Belfast “will allay some of the concern and speculation we have had of late. I fully understand the frustration that we have not been able to scale up testing numbers more quickly. This is not down to a lack of will or action. There are significant challenges including laboratory and staffing capacity and the unprecedented levels of global demand for testing reagents and swabs.”[38]

It was reported that more than 33,000 people so far had claimed unemployment benefits since the lockdown began, ten times the normal rate. Economists forecast that a lengthy lockdown and disruption would lead to hundreds of thousands of job losses.[39]

On 5 April, an additional 91 cases and 7 deaths were reported, bringing the total number of cases and deaths to 1,089 and 63 respectively.[40]

On 6 April, the Orange Order announced that the annual 12th July celebrations were cancelled, as a further 69 cases and 7 deaths were confirmed.[41] A further 97 cases and 3 deaths were announced by the Public Health Agency on 7 April, as a second drive-through testing centre opened at an MOT centre in Belfast.[42] With Easter weekend approaching, on 8 April, the Police Service of Northern Ireland warned people against visiting local beauty spots, as the death toll increased to 78 with 5 more deaths and 84 new cases being reported.[43]

The tower at Belfast City Hospital has been converted to a field hospital.

A further 4 deaths and 138 cases were confirmed on 9 April as experts predicted a deep recession in Northern Ireland following the crisis.[44][45] Research by the Northern Ireland Assembly Library found that Northern Ireland has a lower coronavirus death rate per capita than the other countries of the United Kingdom, and a lower death rate than the Republic of Ireland.[2] It was also revealed that Northern Ireland has a higher coronavirus testing rate per capita than the other countries of the United Kingdom.[3]

On 10 April, a further 10 deaths and 112 cases were reported, bringing the totals to 92 deaths and 1,589 cases.[46]

On 11 April, 15 more deaths and 128 new cases were confirmed as Health Minister Robin Swann called on the Army for assistance in fighting the disease.[47] New cases increased by 89 to 1806, and deaths by 11 to 118 on 12 April.[48] On 15 April, 6 more people died of the virus and another 121 cases were confirmed, as lock-down measures were extended for another three weeks with Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill warning against complacency stating, "Our biggest danger in this period is complacency. The measures are showing positive results but if we relax our behaviour, we will be in danger." [49]

On 15 April, Arlene Foster, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, extended the period of lockdown in Northern Ireland to 9 May, as 121 new cases and 6 new deaths were confirmed.[50] Modelling by the Department of Health indicated that Northern Ireland had reached the peak of its outbreak, and that the health service in Northern Ireland could now cope with the expected peak in cases. Swann said that the peak "may now, potentially, be less severe than we had feared".[4]

On 20 April, the Department of Health launched a new website that provides daily statistic updates, such as information on hospital admissions and discharges, bed occupancy and a breakdown of case and death numbers by age and gender. Speaking about the launch, Health Minister Robin Swann said, "It is vitally important to keep the public well informed. That includes the publication of statistics, as well as the all-important advice on how we keep ourselves and are loved ones safe." [51] The new website also confirmed that 2,307 COVID-19 patients had been discharged from hospital by 20 April.[52]

On 21 April, Northern Ireland's chief scientific advisor said the rising curve of new cases had flattened in Northern Ireland, and evidence suggests Northern Ireland had passed the peak of its outbreak. He said that the number of cases could fall to a low level by mid-May if social distancing rules are obeyed until then.[5]

On 23 April, the First Minister, Arlene Foster, said Northern Ireland may be able to ease its lockdown sooner than other parts of the UK. She said that easing restrictions will depend when public health criteria are met, rather than on a timetable. The Health Minister said "it's important we take our scientific guidance based on the science that is applicable to Northern Ireland".[53]

As the death toll increased to 338 on 29 April, Health Minister Robin Swann committed to maximum transparency with regards to statistics regarding the COVID-19 outbreak, stating “I want to continue seeing the maximum possible transparency on this issue. I want to explore with NISRA if it is possible for it to report more frequently than once a week on deaths associated with Covid-19 across hospitals and the community. This is not straightforward and I want to thank all those who are working hard in this area to provide up to date and reliable statistics.” [54]

Following the announcement on 30 April that there were 73 new cases and 9 new deaths, the totals at the end of the month of April were 3536 confirmed cases and 347 deaths.[55]

On 30 April, the UK Statistics Authority wrote to the Permanent Secretary, Richard Pengelly stating there were gaps in the data and daily time series have been lost since the statistics began to be released through DoH news releases. It was further reported that daily surveillance statistics should be released in a transparent, easily accessible and orderly way.[56]

The new slogan "We all must do it to get through it" adapted by the NI Executive in May 2020

On 1 May, a further 18 deaths linked to COVID-19 were announced – 4 of the deaths happened in the past day (from the morning of 30 April until the morning of 1 May).[57] On 5 May fourteen deaths were announced in the same care home in Glengormley, County Down. [58]

On 7 May the Northern Ireland Executive met to discuss a roadmap to ending lockdown restrictions, with an announcement due during the week beginning 11 May. [59] However despite working on this roadmap, at the time Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill warned against easing restrictions in early May as the infection rate was still too high. Ms O'Neill stated, "We're still in the response stage, we're still in the fightback against Covid-19, but we're also in the space where we're planning for the recovery and that's the light at the end of the tunnel that we know everybody wants to be able to see." [60] Based on this evidence, the NI Executive extended the lockdown in Northern Ireland by a further three weeks until 28 May. [61] It was reported that the infection rate is higher in care homes than in the community, which is inflating the overall infection rate.[62]

On 8 May the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) reported 516 deaths linked to Covid-19 up to and including 1 May. It reported that almost half of the deaths were in care homes and that three-quarters of the deaths were among the over 75s.[63]

NI Executive roadmap to exiting lockdown

NI Executive roadmap to exiting lockdown

On 12 May the Northern Ireland Executive announced a roadmap for Northern Ireland to exit lockdown safely. The plan consists of five stages which are set to start at the end of full lockdown which is expected at the end of May. The plan does not have specific dates as it is fully dependent on how low the R rate is at every stage. [64]

Speaking about the roadmap, First Minister Arlene Foster said: “We recognise how difficult the current restrictions are. But those restrictions, and the determined people of Northern Ireland who have adhered to them, have saved lives and continue to do so. We don’t want to keep any restriction in place any longer than we have to, but in relaxing any measure we must be cognisant of the potential effects in the transmission of the virus and our ability to save lives.

“The Executive’s recovery strategy sets out a pathway for us to emerge from lockdown in the safest way possible. This will require a series of judgements and decisions as we move forward. These decisions will be evidence-based, taking account of our unique circumstances here in Northern Ireland. As we embark on our phased recovery, we will remain focused on the health and wellbeing of our population; the impacts on our society; and our economy as a whole. Above all else, our priority will be saving lives.”

Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said: “We don’t underestimate the impact that the severe restrictions have had on everyone across our society. While they are still absolutely necessary, it is important that we give people hope for the future. Today we have set out our pathway for future recovery which gives an indication of how the restrictions on different aspects of life may be eased at various stages. The incremental five-step approach reflects the risk-based judgements we will make at each stage. These decisions will be evidenced by medical and scientific advice and benchmarked against our guiding principles and international best practice.

“The Executive’s strategy is not time-bound because it’s vital that we retain the flexibility needed to respond to the complex emerging situation based on all relevant evidence. Our recovery from Coronavirus will require a real partnership effort with the community. We are appealing to the public to please be patient. Keep adhering to the restrictions, follow the public health advice and stay at home. We will keep you updated every step of the way when we are in a position to slowly and carefully move out of lockdown.” [65][66]

On Monday 18 May the Northern Ireland Executive activated some aspects of step one with garden and recycling centres allowed to open. However, on the same day, it was announced that further measures of step one would be activated on Tuesday 19 May such as groups of up to six people who do not share a household being able to meet outside and private church services being allowed. [67]

On 26 May the Department of Health announced that there were zero deaths in the previous 24 hours, the first time since 18 March. [68] On 29 May NISRA announced that there were 716 deaths from all sources up to 22 May[69]

At the end of May there were a total of 4716 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Northern Ireland with 523 deaths. [70]

Deaths and cases continued to drop at the start of June, as the Health Minister announced an £11.7 million support package for care homes in Northern Ireland, which includes funding for sick pay for staff. [71]

For the first time since lockdown there were zero deaths recorded from the 6th to the 9th of June and then from the 13the to the 14th of June. As well as this the Executive announced further easing of lockdown measures with all non-essential retail allowed to reopen from 12 June. [72] The Health Minister also announced a new ID card for support carers which allows them to access stores during priority shopping hours. [73]

On 15 June the Executive announced more lockdown easing this time focusing on the hospitality industry with hotels, restaurants and bars that sell food or have a large beer garden being allowed to open from 3 July 2020. [74] On 16 June the NI Statistics and Research Agency announced that unemployment in Northern Ireland had doubled between the months of March and May due to COVID-19 restrictions. [75] On 18 June it was announced that from 6 July other services such as hairdressers and barbers are allowed to open. [76]

On 20 June there were no confirmed cases in the previous 24 hours for the first time since the first week of March. [77] On 25 June is was announced that Northern Ireland would be reducing its 2 metre social distancing rule to 1 metre. [78]

Cases are likely to be higher as statistics are based on positive test results. Suspected hospital discharges combined with suspected inpatients gives a higher total. BBC states that death toll is 70% higher than reported. [83]

The chart below does not include 870 positive cases identified from regional test centres, mobile test units and home testing kits from before 25 June. This is because the Department of Health daily figures did not include this data until 25 June 2020 and there is no information for dates on these cases. [84]

The large spike in confirmed cases on 25 June was due to the Department of Health including cases confirmed in National Initiative laboratories, there were 870 backdated cases added on the 25 June. [84]

The Department of Health had originally announced daily updates regarding inpatients and outpatients hospitalised with suspected COVID-19, these numbers were combined with the confirmed numbers. This suggests that not all of the cases had been confirmed with a test. However from 11 June the Department of Health changed the statistics to confirmed cases only.

This chart was revised on 11 Jun when the information changed from suspected to confirmed discharges.

On 25 June 2020 the Department of Health announced that daily testing numbers would be a combination of tests from the HSC Trust laboratory and the National Initiative laboratory.