Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis in the Imperial College Faculty of Medicine to study the COVID-19 pandemic and advise the government of the United Kingdom.[1] Its leader is Neil Ferguson.[2]

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Formation2020
Founded atImperial College London, Faculty of Medicine
HeadquartersLondon, England
ServicesReports relating to the COVID-19 pandemic to advise the UK government
Membership
50 scientists

On 16 March 2020 the COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two thirds of the time.[3] On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published.[4] It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates.[4] As of 20 June, the COVID-19 Response Team has produced 28 reports.[5]

Reports
COVID-19 reports
Rank Date Title
28 2020-06-18 Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020
27 2020-06-15 Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic
26 2020-06-08 Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
25 2020-05-29 Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions
24 2020-05-29 Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK
23 2020-05-21 State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
22 2020-05-12 Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries
21 2020-05-08 Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil
20 2020-05-04 Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios
19 2020-05-01 The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
18 2020-05-01 The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa
17 2020-04-29 Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study
16 2020-04-23 Role of testing in COVID-19 control
The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines.
15 2020-04-17 Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic
Reports presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".
14 2020-04-03 Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective
13 2020-03-30 Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
12 2020-03-26 The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression
11 2020-03-24 Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
10 2020-03-20 Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17-18 March 2020
9 2020-03-16 Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
This report made an informed estimate of impact for both UK and the USA, according to different strategies. The dire impact expressed helped convert the Jonhson government from laisser-faire to mitigative strategies.
8 2020-03-11 Symptom progression of COVID-19
7 2020-03-09 Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights
6 2020-02-21 Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
5 2020-02-15 Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
4 2020-02-10 Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)
3 2020-01-25 Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
2 2020-01-22 Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
1 2020-01-17 Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

Estimates

11 European countries estimates on March 28, 2020
Population infected by country
ICCRT's model projection for March 28[4] WHO lab-confirmed March 29
Country Population Infected

(95% range)

 Infected

(mean %)

 Cases

(est.)

 Cases Detected

(% of pop.)

Austria 8,999,973 0.36%-3.1% 1.1% 99000 8291 0.09%
Belgium 11,579,502 1.3%-9.7% 3.7% 428400 9134 0.08%
Denmark 5,785,741 0.40%-3.1% 1.1% 63600 2201 0.04%
France 65,227,357 1.1%-7.4% 3.0% 1956800 37145 0.06%
Germany 83,792,987 0.28%-1.8% 0.72% 603300 52547 0.06%
Italy 60,496,082 3.2%-26% 9.8% 5928600 92472 0.15%
Norway 5,407,670 0.09%-1.2% 0.41% 22200 3845 0.07%
Spain 46,767,543 3.7%-41% 15% 7015100 72248 0.15%
Sweden 10,081,948 0.85%-8.4% 3.1% 312500 3447 0.03%
Switzerland 8,637,694 1.3%-7.6% 3.2% 276400 13152 0.15%
United Kingdom 67,803,450 1.2%-5.4% 2.7% 1830700 17093 0.03%
Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on March 29, 10am Central European Time.

World estimates for 3 strategies
Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies.[6]
Unmitigated Scenario Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week
InfectionsDeathsInfectionsDeathsInfectionsDeaths
East Asia & Pacific2,117,131,00015,303,00092,544,000442,000632,619,0003,315,000
Europe & Central Asia801,770,0007,276,00061,578,000279,000257,706,0001,397,000
Latin America & Caribbean566,993,0003,194,00045,346,000158,000186,595,000729,000
Middle East & North Africa419,138,0001,700,00030,459,000113,000152,262,000594,000
North America326,079,0002,981,00017,730,00092,00090,529,000520,000
South Asia1,737,766,0007,687,000111,703,000475,000629,164,0002,693,000
Sub-Saharan Africa1,044,858,0002,483,000110,164,000298,000454,968,0001,204,000
Total7,013,734,00040,624,000469,523,0001,858,0002,403,843,00010,452,000

See also

References
  1. Landler, Mark; Castle, Stephen (17 March 2020). "Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 30 March 2020.
  2. Adam, David (2020). "Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19". Nature. 580 (7803): 316–318. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6. PMID 32242115.
  3. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (16 March 2020). "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand" (PDF).
  4. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (30 March 2020). "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" (PDF). p. 35.
  5. "COVID-19 reports". Imperial College London. Retrieved 20 June 2020.
  6. "Report 12 - The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression". Imperial College London. Retrieved 4 April 2020.


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