Texas Democratic primary, 2016

Texas Democratic primary, 2016

March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)

 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 147 75
Popular vote 936,004 476,547
Percentage 65.19% 33.19%

Texas results by county
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie

The 2016 Texas Democratic primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state of Texas as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in eleven states including their own Texas primary.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
65.2%
Bernie Sanders
33.2%
Others
1.6%
Emerson[1]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 275

February 26–28, 2016 Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided
6%
American Research Group[2]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 26–28, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
YouGov/CBS News[3]

Margin of error: ± 6.9%
Sample size: 750

February 22–26, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
2%
Monmouth[4]

Margin of error: ± 5.6
Sample size: 304

February 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided
6%
Emerson College[5]

Margin of error: ± 5.4
Sample size: 328

February 21–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
4%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.9
Sample size: 405

February 18–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
3%
KTVT-CBS 11[7]

Margin of error: ± 3.8
Sample size: 675

February 22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
10%
TEGNA/SurveyUSA[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.1
Sample size: 569

February 21–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided
7%
Austin American-Statesman[9]

Margin of error: ± 5.0
Sample size: 411

February 19–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided
8%
UT/TT[10]

Margin of error: ±4.57
Sample Size: ? Dem Voters

February 12–19, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Rocky de la Fuente
2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Willie Wilson 1%
Public Policy Polling[11]

Margin of error: ± 4.3
Sample size: 514

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[12]

Margin of error ± 4.57%
Sample Size: 459

October 30 – November 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Martin O'Malley 1% Lawrence Lessig 0% No Opinion 7%
CBS-DFW[13]

Margin of error: ± 3.09%
Sample size: 1008

October 23–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Undecided 28%
Texas Lyceum[14]

Margin of error: ± 7.15%
Sample size: 185

September 8–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton
36%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Joe Biden
15%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0% Undecided 23%
UoT/Texas Tribune[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.58%
Sample size: 457

June 5–14, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1% Undecided 12%
UoT/Texas Tribune[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.89%
Sample size: 401

February 6–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
62%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
6%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Undecided 14%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
UoT/Texas Tribune

Margin of error: ± 4.73%
Sample size: 429

October 10–19, 2014 Hillary Clinton
60%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden
10%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 13%
UoT/Texas Tribune

Margin of error: ± 4.75%
Sample size: 426

May 30 – June 8, 2014 Hillary Clinton
64%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
8%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 10%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
UoT/Texas Tribune

Margin of error: ± 4.82%
Sample size: 414

October 18–29, 2013 Hillary Clinton
67%
Joe Biden
7%
Elizabeth Warren
5%
Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Don't Know 17%
UoT/Texas Tribune

Margin of error: ± 5.89%
Sample size: 376

May 31 – June 9, 2013 Hillary Clinton
66%
Joe Biden
11%
Andrew Cuomo
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Don't Know 19%

Results

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 75

Texas Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 936,004 65.19% 147 21 168
Bernie Sanders 476,547 33.19% 75 0 75
Rocky De La Fuente 8,429 0.59%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 5,364 0.37%
Willie Wilson 3,254 0.23%
Keith Russell Judd 2,569 0.18%
Calvis L. Hawes 2,017 0.14%
Star Locke 1,711 0.12%
Uncommitted N/A 0 8 8
Total 1,435,895 100% 222 29 251
Source: The Green Papers, Texas Secretary of State

Results by county

County[17] Clinton % Sanders %
Anderson99675.6%29922.7%
Andrews7666.1%3833.0%
Angelina1,95073.7%62223.5%
Aransas48863.1%27235.1%
Archer9958.9%6438.1%
Armstrong120.0%480.0%
Atascosa1,35571.7%47825.3%
Austin49273.4%16524.6%
Bailey8471.2%2924.6%
Bandera37855.4%29443.1%
Bastrop2,89659.0%1,95039.8%
Bland4661.3%2432.0%
Bee1,13375.1%32021.2%
Bell7,43069.9%3,09029.1%
Bexar76,53366.8%36,75032.1%
Blanco28454.9%23244.9%
Borden480.0%120.0%
Bosque35362.6%19935.3%
Bowie2,43776.7%68721.6%
Brazoria8,00969.6%3,72128.6%
Brazos3,56149.1%3,58949.5%
Brewster70143.7%77148.1%
Briscoe1657.1%1132.3%
Brooks1,60374.4%36216.8%
Brown31958.5%21238.9%
Burleson46974.0%14923.5%
Burnet87859.4%58039.3%
Caldwell1,54366.1%74231.8%
Calhoun70966.6%30528.6%
Callahan8744.2%10452.8%
Cameron20,33268.2%8,32027.9%
Camp48476.6%13421.2%
Carson5062.5%3037.5%
Cass77873.1%26524.9%
Castro12773.9%4023.3%
Chambers68867.9%29529.1%
Cherokee99074.2%32424.3%
Childress5458.7%3437.0%
Clay12062.5%6533.9%
Cochran450.0%337.5%
Coke2548.1%2548.1%
Coleman7560.0%4939.2%
Collin23,67059.1%16,17140.4%
Collingsworth3659.0%2439.3%
Colorado47474.8%15023.7%
Comal3,11260.0%2,02739.1%
Comanche22163.5%11733.6%
Concho2769.2%1128.2%
Cooke44956.4%33442.0%
Coryell1,01062.7%57735.8%
Cottle2757.5%1838.3%
Crane6266.0%2425.5%
Crockett26637.7%24034.0%
Crosby13158.2%9140.4%
Culberson35862.2%16027.8%
Dallam2461.5%1333.3%
Dallas113,66471.5%44,27527.8%
Dawson9270.2%3426.0%
Deaf Smith20067.8%8629.2%
Delta11067.9%5131.5%
Denton16,49150.7%15,78148.6%
Dewitt29370.3%11327.1%
Dickens1352.0%1144.0%
Dimmit1,80468.9%53420.4%
Donley3547.8%3550.7%
Duval2,27376.2%52317.5%
Eastland17155.7%12239.7%
Ector1,85564.9%94233.0%
Edwards4257.5%2737.0%
Ellis3,72569.5%1,56829.2%
El Paso36,14066.0%17,23431.5%
Erath42752.5%36544.9%
Falls55191.4%11517.0%
Fannin50763.0%27934.7%
Fayette58463.9%30933.8%
Fisher22653.3%14634.4%
Floyd6065.9%2426.4%
Foard8034.3%11248.1%
Fort Bend29,25974.6%9,77424.9%
Franklin16467.8%7330.2%
Freestone38076.8%10220.6%
Frio1,86467.7%63022.9%
Gaines9155.8%5936.2%
Galveston9,46668.2%4,24130.6%
Garza3556.5%2235.5%
Gillespie49360.9%31438.8%
Glasscock450.0%450.0%
Goliad38966.4%15125.8%
Gonzales36872.3%12925.3%
Gray11153.9%8641.8%
Grayson1,94052.8%1,68745.9%
Gregg3,42378.0%91120.8%
Grimes58473.2%20125.2%
Guadalupe3,79363.9%2,06734.8%
Hale31260.4%17634.0%
Hall6364.3%2828.6%
Hamilton11556.5%8440.2%
Hansford2158.3%1336.1%
Hardeman7139.4%8848.9%
Hardin62559.5%39827.9%
Harris157,00070.5%63,41628.5%
Harrison2,04676.9%53019.9%
Hartley1955.8%1936.5%
Haskell15958.7%9234.3%
Hays6,63446.9%7,32251.8%
Hemphill1565.2%834.8%
Henderson1,59371.6%59826.9%
Hidalgo40,30869.1%15,90727.3%
Hill71869.1%29728.6%
Hockley18358.3%11636.9%
Hood92862.6%52735.6%
Houston46480.0%10117.4%
Howard35163.5%19234.7%
Hudspeth9939.9%9739.1%
Hunt1,32960.5%84938.6%
Hutchinson15355.8%10337.6%
Irion2865.1%1432.6%
Jack8762.1%4632.9%
Jackson26670.6%9424.9%
Jasper93275.7%27021.9%
Jeff Davis14049.5%13246.6%
Jefferson16,58976.9%4,44120.6%
Jim Hogg1,42175.0%35618.8%
Jim Wells4,69771.7%1,43621.9%
Johnson2,27158.5%1,56640.4%
Jones17363.1%9534.7%
Karnes72653.0%47934.9%
Kaufman2,23469.6%95129.6%
Kendall64156.2%49143.0%
Kenedy6359.4%3230.2%
Kent2236.7%2846.7%
Kerr1,02058.4%70940.6%
Kimble2944.6%3452.3%
King266.7%133.3%
Kinney21160.8%10730.8%
Kleberg1,74070.7%63025.6%
Knox6871.6%1717.9%
Lamar92469.3%38829.1%
Lamb17253.3%8726.9%
Lampasas32459.8%20738.2%
Lavaca32268.5%13729.2%
Lee36765.4%18032.1%
Leon28974.3%8922.9%
Liberty1,04371.3%38326.2%
Limestone59279.1%14419.3%
Lipscomb2264.7%1132.4%
Live Oak20367.4%7324.3%
Llano51964.8%26733.3%
Loving325.0%541.7%
Lubbock5,78257.3%4,13741.0%
Lynn1458.3%1041.7%
Madison22775.2%7023.2%
Martin3659.0%1727.9%
Mason8962.7%5035.2%
Matagorda1,08874.2%34423.5%
Maverick4,34369.5%1,50824.2%
McCulloch9366.0%4330.5%
McLennan5,53167.0%2,63331.9%
McMullen480.0%120.0%
Medina1,07369.7%43628.3%
Menard2356.1%1639.0%
Midland1,55663.1%85434.6%
Milam57767.8%25229.6%
Mills5053.2%4143.6%
Mitchell10973.2%3322.2%
Montague15354.3%12243.3%
Montgomery7,54059.5%5,04039.8%
Moore14959.9%8132.5%
Morris48871.4%16924.7%
Motley1368.4%631.6%
Nacogdoches1,60065.2%82933.8%
Navarro95772.5%33425.3%
Newton60544.2%52940.4%
Nolan27065.5%12229.6%
Nueces15,67170.5%6,17527.8%
Ochiltree3653.7%2943.3%
Oldham1168.8%425.0%
Orange1,85268.1%81630.0%
Palo Pinto36159.5%23037.9%
Panola55980.1%13018.6%
Parker1,80854.6%1,47544.5%
Parmer8272.6%2623.0%
Pecos81655.4%48833.2%
Polk86071.1%32626.9%
Potter1,49056.5%1,09441.5%
Presidio77657.4%44733.1%
Rains17364.3%8933.1%
Randall1,59151.0%1,48947.7%
Reagan1263.2%736.8%
Real2853.9%2344.2%
Red River37870.1%8718.2%
Reeves1,12859.6%56329.7%
Refugio54964.1%25429.7%
Roberts360.0%240.0%
Robertson89670.9%28922.9%
Rockwall1,72659.5%1,04636.1%
Runnels8057.6%5539.6%
Rusk1,11478.1%27619.4%
Sabine19266.4%8228.4%
San Augustine36883.1%6214.0%
San Jacinto56272.1%19324.7%
San Patricio2,63873.2%85023.6%
San Saba5867.4%2731.4%
Schleicer5864.4%2426.7%
Scurry15461.6%8534.0%
Shackelford1550.0%1446.7%
Shelby34677.8%9020.2%
Sherman1961.3%825.8%
Smith5,77873.5%2,00325.5%
Somervell6649.3%6750/0%
Starr6,93677.8%1,63518.3%
Stephens4555.6%3543.2%
Sterling550.0%440.0%
Stonewall5957.8%3635.3%
Sutton2769.2%1025.6%
Swisher14160.5%7833.5%
Tarrant68,04465.2%35,73334.2%
Taylor1,79454.6%1,42743.4%
Terrell6743.5%6441.6%
Terry14159.0%8334.7%
Throckmorton2661.9%1638.1%
Titus55271.3%19725.5%
Tom Green1,65755.9%1,23941.8%
Travis69,44648.2%74,06851.4%
Trinity33371.8%11725.2%
Tyler45374.3%37222.8%
Upshur72571.7%26926.6%
Upton9155.8%4527.6%
Uvalde1,74463.4%76227.7%
Val Verde1,77665.8%76528.3%
Van Zandt72264.1%37733.5%
Victoria2,20664.5%1,11932.7%
Walker1,29261.3%78937.4%
Waller1,22167.4%55930.9%
Ward30662.2%14729.9%
Washington78273.0%27825.9%
Webb18,55971.9%6,17723.9%
Wharton96176.5%22418.3%
Wheeler3759.7%2337.1%
Wichita1,95855.5%1,52443.2%
Wilbarger13661.5%7533.9%
Willacy2,08170.0%66022.2%
Williamson16,39652.7%14,55446.7%
Wilson1,28271.5%48126.8%
Winkler3069.8%1125.6%
Wise75156.2%55841.8%
Wood66368.7%28529.5%
Yoakum942.9%1047.6%
Young20158.8%13238.6%
Zapata1,97367.9%68523.6%
Zavala1,55775.5%37318.1%
Total936,00465.2%476,54733.2%

Analysis

Clinton won the Texas primary by a landslide margin of over thirty points, thanks in large part to support from Hispanic/Latinos (whom she won by a margin of 71-29 over Bernie Sanders), African American voters (whom she won 83-15) and white women (63-35 over Sanders).[18] Clinton won all of the major cities (Fort Worth, Dallas, El Paso, San Antonio, and Houston, and Corpus Christi) except for Austin where Sanders won only narrowly due to the presence of the University of Texas.[19]

Sanders won few counties outside of Travis County. He won neighboring Hays County, home to another prominent college, Texas State University in San Marcos. Sanders also managed to very narrowly edge out Clinton in Brazos County, home to College Station and Texas A&M University, by 28 votes. In all three counties mentioned above, Sanders performed worse than Barack Obama did in the 2008 Texas Democratic primary and caucuses, despite all three containing a bloc of young voters, a demographic Sanders usually performs well in.

The rest of Sanders's victories came from 11 sparsely populated counties where Republicans have performed strongly in the past several elections. His strongest performance came from the Texas Panhandle in Armstrong County, where he won 80% of the vote, 4 votes to Clinton's 1. Two counties in particular, Glasscock and Coke, had Sanders and Clinton tie.[20]

References

  1. "EMERSON POLL: CRUZ CLINGS TO NARROW LEAD IN TEXAS; TRUMP ROMPS IN BAY STATE, CLINTON PULLS AWAY FROM SANDERS" (PDF).
  2. "Texas Democratic Presidential Primary".
  3. "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerTexas".
  4. "TEXAS: CRUZ, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES" (PDF).
  5. "2016 Texas Republican Presidential Primary – Cruz 29%, Trump 28% (Emerson College Polling Society 2/21-2/23)" (PDF).
  6. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll" (PDF).
  7. "Cruz Increases Lead In TX Against Trump In KTVT-CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll".
  8. "Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22696" (PDF).
  9. "Cruz, Clinton still lead in Texas".
  10. Ramsey, Ross. "UT/TT Poll: Clinton Still Leads in Texas, But Margin Has Narrowed, by Ross Ramsey". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved 2016-02-23.
  11. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  12. "Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). University of Texas / Texas Tribune. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  13. "Carson Leads Trump Slightly In Texas KTVT-CBS 11 Dixie Strategies Poll". cbslocal.com.
  14. "Texas Lyceum Poll Results: 2015 Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). texaslyceum.org. Retrieved 2015-10-01.
  15. "TX Tribune" (PDF). amazonaws.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  16. "Texas Statewide Survey" (PDF). Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  17. http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist233_countyselect.htm
  18. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-07-18.
  19. "Texas Primary Election Results". Retrieved 2016-07-18.
  20. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
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