2008 United States presidential election in Virginia

The 2008 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election
United States presidential election in Virginia, 2008
November 4, 2008
Turnout74.0% (of registered voters)[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,959,532 1,725,005
Percentage 52.63% 46.33%
County and Independent City Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Virginia was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 6.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 16 of 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state, despite the fact that initially Virginia was a swing state that both campaigns targeted heavily in 2008 and that Virginia had been one of the most reliable red states in the nation since 1952. The financial meltdown, changing demographics, and population increases in voter-rich Northern Virginia helped make the state more competitive for Obama. It was the first time in over 40 years that Virginia voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson's victory in 1964.

This also marked the first presidential election since 1924 in which Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential candidate whilst neighboring West Virginia voted for the Republican presidential candidate.

Primaries
  • Virginia Democratic primary, 2008
  • Virginia Republican primary, 2008

Campaign
Elections in Virginia

Virginia was one of the first Southern states to break away from its traditional Democratic roots. It voted for Dwight Eisenhower by a convincing margin in 1952, and had voted for every Republican nominee since then save for Johnson's massive landslide in 1964.

However, the Democrats have made strong gains in the past years with winning two gubernatorial races in a row, regaining control of the Virginia Senate, and electing Democrat Jim Webb to the U.S. Senate in the Democratic wave of the 2006 midterms over incumbent Republican George Allen. Democrats have been able to make such gains in Virginia due in large part to the ever-expanding Northern Virginia, particularly the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C. Historically, this area had been strongly Republican. However, in recent years it has been dominated by white liberals who tend to vote Democratic.[2] It was, ultimately, this rapid demographic change that provided a huge new influx of Democratic voters to Virginia.[3]

Both presidential campaigns and the mainstream media treated Virginia as a swing state for most of the campaign. Obama campaigned extensively in Virginia and counted on the booming northern parts of the state for a Democratic victory. Victory for McCain would have been extremely difficult without Virginia; he would have had to win every swing state as well as at least one Democratic-leaning state.

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

After McCain clinched the Republican Party nomination in early March, he took a wide lead in polls against Obama, averaging almost 50%. But through the summer, polling was dead even. After the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Obama took a wide lead in the polls. In October, Obama won every single poll taken, and reached over 50% in most of them. The final three polls averaged Obama leading 52% to 46%.[17][18]

Fundraising

Obama raised $17,035,784. McCain raised $16,130,194.[19]

Spending and visits

Obama spent over $26 million to McCain spending just $14 million.[20] The Obama-Biden ticket visited the state 19 times compared to just 10 times for McCain-Palin.[21]

Analysis
Voters wait in queue at a polling station on the campus of George Mason University

On Election Day, early returns showed McCain ahead.[22] This was due in large part to the fact that many of the rural areas began to report first. However, Obama swamped McCain by scoring a near-sweep in Northern Virginia, which reported its returns last.

Obama did extremely well throughout the most populous regions of the state. Northern Virginia overwhelmingly supported Obama.[23] Fairfax County and Arlington counties, traditionally the most Democratic counties in the region, gave Obama over 60% of the vote. Moreover, Loudoun and Prince William counties, normally the more conservative counties in the region, voted Democratic for the first time since LBJ's 1964 landslide.

The two other major metropolitan areas in the eastern part of the state, Richmond and Hampton Roads, are somewhat less Democratic than Northern Virginia. In both areas, Obama improved significantly on John Kerry's performance.[23] While Obama easily won Richmond itself (which is 57% African American), he also made significant inroads into Richmond's traditionally heavily Republican suburbs. He carried Henrico County with 57% of the vote; that county last supported a Democrat with Harry S. Truman in 1948.[24] In Chesterfield County, Obama did almost 20 points better than Kerry.[25] Both counties have historically been strongly Republican, although Henrico is something of a swing county at state-level elections.

Obama also did very well in Hampton Roads. The four Democratic-leaning cities along the harbor - Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Portsmouth - gave him margins exceeding 60%. Obama also split the Republican-leaning cities of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach; he barely won the former and barely lost the latter. Obama's strong performance in the area likely contributed to Democrat Glenn Nye unseating two-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake in the 2nd Congressional District, a heavy military district which includes all of Virginia Beach and large portions of Norfolk and Hampton.

Obama also significantly outperformed Kerry in Western Virginia, an area where the national Democratic Party has historically not done well. Danville and Roanoke, usually the most Democratic cities in this region, gave him moderate support. He also had a major breakthrough in the Shenandoah Valley, historically one of the most Republican areas of the state. He won Harrisonburg, the largest city in the region, with a resounding 57% of the vote. He also won the second-largest city in the area, Staunton, albeit more narrowly. The Shenandoah Valley had been among the first regions of the state to turn Republican. The old Byrd Democrats in this region started splitting their tickets as early as the 1930s, and some counties in this region haven't supported a Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Several rural counties in Eastern Virginia with high African-American populations voted for Obama as well.

In contrast to Obama, McCain did well throughout rural Virginia.[25] He won the vast majority of its counties. In the part of Virginia protruding out west, Obama ran roughly even with Kerry, even though he comfortably won the election and Kerry lost. This area, save for one county and a few small towns, uniformly supported McCain. In addition, a number of unionized, Appalachian counties located next to Kentucky voted Republican; they had cast strong ballots for Bill Clinton. This was not surprising as this part of Virginia is a part of Appalachia, a region in which Obama consistently struggled during the course of the Democratic primary.

The Republican base in Virginia consists of the state's traditional Republican heartland in the Blue Ridge Mountains, social conservatives in the Shenandoah Valley and suburbanites in the east.[26] McCain closely matched George W. Bush's numbers among the first group and only did slightly worse than Bush amongst the second group. However, in 2008, suburbanites in Northern Virginia and in the Richmond/Hampton Roads areas abandoned the Republican Party in droves, and it was simply impossible for McCain to win the state without their support.

During the same election, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner solidly defeated former Governor (and his predecessor) Republican Jim Gilmore by a two-to-one margin for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by incumbent Republican John Warner (no relation to Mark Warner). Warner received 65.03% of the vote while Gilmore took in 33.73%. Warner won all but five counties in the state. Democrats also picked up three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Despite Obama's victory, the fact remains that Virginia's margin was 0.97% more Republican than the national average. As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which King and Queen County, Virginia voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results
United States presidential election in Virginia, 2008[27]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,959,532 52.63% 13
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,725,005 46.33% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 11,483 0.31% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 11,067 0.30% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 7,474 0.20% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 2,344 0.06% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 6,355 0.17% 0
Totals 3,723,260 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 65.1%

Results breakdown

By city/county
City/County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Accomack County48.69%7,60750.14%7,8331.17%18315,623
Albemarle County58.43%29,79240.36%20,5761.21%61650,984
Alleghany County48.22%3,55350.41%3,7151.37%1017,369
Amelia County38.11%2,48860.81%3,9701.09%716,529
Amherst County41.46%6,09457.62%8,4700.93%13614,700
Appomattox County34.61%2,64164.26%4,9031.13%867,630
Arlington County71.71%78,99427.12%29,8761.16%1,283110,153
Augusta County29.47%9,82569.35%23,1201.18%39333,338
Bath County42.89%1,04355.47%1,3491.64%402,432
Bedford County30.75%11,01768.16%24,4201.10%39335,830
Bland County29.20%86468.64%2,0312.16%642,959
Botetourt County32.71%5,69365.90%11,4711.39%24217,406
Brunswick County62.84%4,97336.35%2,8770.81%647,914
Buchanan County46.52%4,06351.99%4,5411.49%1308,734
Buckingham County49.89%3,48949.01%3,4281.10%776,994
Campbell County31.34%8,09167.58%17,4441.08%27925,814
Caroline County55.45%7,16343.48%5,6171.08%13912,919
Carroll County32.66%4,10865.09%8,1872.25%28312,578
Charles City County68.34%2,83831.01%1,2880.65%274,153
Charlotte County43.93%2,70554.77%3,3721.30%806,157
Chesterfield County45.85%74,31053.31%86,4130.84%1,365162,088
Clarke County46.52%3,45751.68%3,8401.80%1347,431
Craig County33.44%87664.69%1,6951.87%492,620
Culpeper County44.59%8,80254.26%10,7111.15%22819,741
Cumberland County47.73%2,25551.19%2,4181.08%514,724
Dickenson County48.54%3,27849.22%3,3242.24%1516,753
Dinwiddie County48.45%6,24650.62%6,5260.93%12012,892
Essex County54.70%2,93444.35%2,3790.95%515,364
Fairfax County60.12%310,35938.93%200,9940.95%4,901516,254
Fauquier County42.71%14,61656.19%19,2271.10%37634,219
Floyd County39.08%2,93759.09%4,4411.84%1387,516
Fluvanna County48.57%6,18550.41%6,4201.02%13012,735
Franklin County37.86%9,61860.68%15,4141.45%36925,401
Frederick County38.56%12,96159.95%20,1491.49%50233,612
Giles County40.95%3,19257.24%4,4621.81%1417,795
Gloucester County35.98%6,91662.89%12,0891.13%21719,222
Goochland County38.31%4,81360.84%7,6430.84%10612,562
Grayson County34.35%2,48062.88%4,5402.77%2007,220
Greene County38.43%3,17460.29%4,9801.28%1068,260
Greensville County63.88%3,12235.38%1,7290.74%364,887
Halifax County48.23%8,12651.04%8,6000.74%12416,850
Hanover County32.80%18,44766.39%37,3440.81%45756,248
Henrico County55.70%86,32343.48%67,3810.81%1,262154,966
Henry County44.09%11,11854.56%13,7581.34%33925,215
Highland County37.97%59059.85%9302.19%341,554
Isle of Wight County42.87%8,57356.30%11,2580.83%16619,997
James City County44.95%17,35254.17%20,9120.88%33938,603
King and Queen County51.77%1,91847.58%1,7630.65%243,705
King George County42.71%4,47356.22%5,8881.08%11310,474
King William County39.87%3,34459.20%4,9660.93%788,388
Lancaster County46.63%3,23552.57%3,6470.81%566,938
Lee County34.89%3,21963.13%5,8251.98%1839,227
Loudoun County53.67%74,84545.42%63,3360.92%1,278139,459
Louisa County45.45%6,97853.29%8,1821.26%19315,353
Lunenburg County47.84%2,70351.33%2,9000.83%475,650
Madison County42.72%2,86256.10%3,7581.18%796,699
Mathews County35.66%1,94363.42%3,4560.92%505,449
Mecklenburg County47.26%7,12751.83%7,8170.91%13815,082
Middlesex County39.81%2,39159.02%3,5451.17%706,006
Montgomery County51.73%21,03146.81%19,0281.46%59440,653
Nelson County53.99%4,39144.84%3,6471.17%958,133
New Kent County34.96%3,49363.91%6,3851.13%1139,991
Northampton County57.70%3,80041.19%2,7131.11%736,586
Northumberland County44.72%3,31254.56%4,0410.72%537,406
Nottoway County48.84%3,41350.07%3,4991.09%766,988
Orange County44.98%7,10753.83%8,5061.19%18815,801
Page County40.76%4,23558.15%6,0411.09%11310,389
Patrick County33.75%2,87964.37%5,4911.89%1618,531
Pittsylvania County37.51%11,41561.55%18,7300.95%28830,433
Powhatan County29.31%4,23769.78%10,0880.91%13114,456
Prince Edward County54.34%5,10144.46%4,1741.20%1139,388
Prince George County44.55%7,13054.68%8,7520.77%12416,006
Prince William County57.52%93,43541.63%67,6210.86%1,390162,446
Pulaski County39.32%5,91858.85%8,8571.83%27515,050
Rappahannock County47.79%2,10550.56%2,2271.66%734,405
Richmond County43.20%1,61855.86%2,0920.93%353,745
Roanoke County38.87%19,81259.97%30,5711.16%59250,975
Rockbridge County42.64%4,34756.22%5,7321.14%11610,195
Rockingham County31.36%10,45367.40%22,4681.24%41333,334
Russell County42.90%4,93155.59%6,3891.51%17311,493
Scott County27.59%2,72570.68%6,9801.72%1709,875
Shenandoah County35.96%6,91262.45%12,0051.59%30619,223
Smyth County34.46%4,23963.54%7,8172.00%24612,302
Southampton County48.55%4,40250.55%4,5830.90%829,067
Spotsylvania County46.05%24,89752.91%28,6101.04%56254,069
Stafford County46.37%25,71652.69%29,2210.93%51855,455
Surry County60.72%2,62638.45%1,6630.83%364,325
Sussex County61.55%3,30137.78%2,0260.67%365,363
Tazewell County32.80%5,59665.65%11,2011.55%26417,061
Warren County43.39%6,99755.06%8,8791.55%25016,126
Washington County32.91%8,06365.62%16,0771.47%36024,500
Westmoreland County54.64%4,57744.40%3,7190.97%818,377
Wise County35.33%4,99563.05%8,9141.62%22914,138
Wythe County32.88%4,10765.70%8,2071.42%17712,491
York County40.42%13,70058.51%19,8331.07%36433,897
Alexandria71.73%50,47327.26%19,1811.01%71070,364
Bristol36.21%2,66562.22%4,5791.56%1157,359
Buena Vista45.73%1,10852.91%1,2821.36%332,423
Charlottesville78.35%15,70520.35%4,0781.30%26120,044
Chesapeake50.22%53,99448.94%52,6250.84%902107,521
Colonial Heights28.95%2,56269.62%6,1611.42%1268,849
Covington55.40%1,30443.33%1,0201.27%302,354
Danville59.13%12,35240.02%8,3610.85%17720,890
Emporia65.04%1,70234.28%8970.69%182,617
Fairfax57.69%6,57541.16%4,6911.16%13211,398
Falls Church69.56%4,69529.19%1,9701.26%856,750
Franklin63.68%2,81935.60%1,5760.72%324,427
Fredericksburg63.60%6,15535.27%3,4131.13%1099,677
Galax43.80%1,05254.83%1,3171.37%332,402
Hampton69.05%46,91730.14%20,4760.81%55067,943
Harrisonburg57.54%8,44441.21%6,0481.25%18314,675
Hopewell55.49%5,28543.56%4,1490.94%909,524
Lexington62.24%1,54336.87%9140.89%222,479
Lynchburg47.37%16,26951.36%17,6381.26%43434,341
Manassas55.17%7,51843.85%5,9750.98%13413,627
Manassas Park59.49%2,46339.47%1,6341.04%434,140
Martinsville63.48%4,13935.44%2,3111.07%706,520
Newport News63.93%51,97235.26%28,6670.81%65681,295
Norfolk71.03%62,81928.06%24,8140.92%81388,446
Norton49.14%74349.21%7441.65%251,512
Petersburg88.64%13,77410.19%1,5831.18%18315,540
Poquoson24.74%1,74874.01%5,2291.25%887,065
Portsmouth69.27%32,32729.97%13,9840.76%35446,665
Radford53.97%2,93044.54%2,4181.49%815,429
Richmond79.09%73,62320.03%18,6490.87%81393,085
Roanoke61.15%24,93437.76%15,3941.09%44440,772
Salem41.63%5,16457.13%7,0881.24%15412,406
Staunton50.56%5,56948.39%5,3301.05%11611,015
Suffolk56.24%22,44643.01%17,1650.74%29739,908
Virginia Beach49.14%98,88549.85%100,3191.02%2,045201,249
Waynesboro44.09%3,90654.35%4,8151.57%1398,860
Williamsburg63.77%4,32834.67%2,3531.56%1066,787
Winchester52.02%5,26846.66%4,7251.31%13310,126

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried 6 of the state’s 11 congressional districts, including four districts held by Republicans at the time of the election. John McCain carried five districts, one of which was held by Democrats on election day.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 51.35% 47.67% Jo Ann Davis (110th Congress)
Robert J. Wittman (111th Congress)
2nd 48.48% 50.45% Thelma Drake (110th Congress)
Glenn Nye (111th Congress)
3rd 23.74% 75.52% Robert C. Scott
4th 48.80% 50.33% Randy Forbes
5th 50.59% 48.29% Virgil Goode (110th Congress)
Tom Perriello (111th Congress)
6th 56.93% 41.85% Bob Goodlatte
7th 53.16% 45.89% Eric Cantor
8th 29.65% 69.28% Jim Moran
9th 58.71% 39.60% Rick Boucher
10th 46.06% 52.90% Frank Wolf
11th 42.06% 57.01% Thomas M. Davis (110th Congress)
Gerry Connolly (111th Congress)

Electors
Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[29]

  1. Christia Rey
  2. Sandra Brandt
  3. Betty Squire
  4. Susan Johnston Rowland
  5. Marc Finney
  6. Dorothy Blackwell
  7. James Harold Allen Boyd
  8. Marian Van Landingham
  9. Robert Edgar Childress
  10. Rolland Winter
  11. Janet Carver
  12. Michael Jon
  13. Sophie Ann Salley

References
  1. "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on 2018-10-18. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
  2. "Back to the Future - The American Prospect". 12 July 2007. Archived from the original on 2007-07-12.
  3. Continetti, Matthew (October 2, 2006). "George Allen Monkeys Around". The Weekly Standard. 12 (3). Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  4. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". www.dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-25.
  5. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved May 4, 2015.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  6. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  7. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com.
  8. Based on Takeaway
  9. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com.
  10. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
  11. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  12. "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  13. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  14. "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
  15. "Associated Press News". AP News.
  16. Reports, Rasmussen. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  17. "2008 - Virginia: McCain vs. Obama - RealClearPolitics". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  18. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=51
  19. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-18.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  20. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  21. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  22. "Election 2008: Time lapse of U.S. counties". USA Today. 4 July 2008. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  23. Leip, David. "2008 Presidential General Election Results". David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  24. Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  25. "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  26. Trende, Sean (19 February 2009). "Virginia Governor's Preview". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2009-05-31. The question in Virginia is always whether the Republican Party can hold together its somewhat unwieldy three-legged coalition of historically Republican Virginians in the mountainous Appalachian western portion of the state, social conservatives in the rural areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and suburbanites in Northern Virginia and in the Richmond/Hampton Roads areas. Why this coalition is having troubles recently could fill a book. For our purposes, we will oversimplify somewhat and observe the following.
  27. http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008election.pdf
  28. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  29. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 4, 2011. Retrieved March 18, 2011.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

See also
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