2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 8 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election
United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
November 4, 2008
Turnout64.04%[1]
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,048,462 751,985
Percentage 57.40% 41.17%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Kentucky
Government

Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.23% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe red state. In the primaries Hillary Clinton was slightly defeating McCain in the hypothetical polls for the Bluegrass State. Once Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Kentucky was moved into the safe GOP category. In the end, Kentucky voted for McCain with 57.40% of the vote. This was the first time since 1960 when Kentucky did not vote for the winning candidate in a presidential election. This was the first time ever that Floyd and Knott counties voted for the Republican candidate.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote as a presidential candidate.


Primaries
  • 2008 Kentucky Democratic primary
  • 2008 Kentucky Republican primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll, almost all of them by a double-digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $183,738 while a conservative interest groups spent just $212.[16] Each ticket visited the state once.[17]

Analysis

Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Anglo Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from the South, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago.

In the 2008 primary, exits polls conducted found that 30 percent of Clinton supporters opted not to vote for Obama in the general election, 40% would vote McCain and the rest would support Obama in the general election. Several counties in the southeastern part of the state swung Republican and went to McCain as solidly Democratic Floyd and Knott counties voted Republican for the first time ever. Obama decided to not spend campaign funds on Kentucky and instead went to more viable battleground states like North Carolina and Indiana instead. McCain won Kentucky by a margin of 16.22 points on election day and performed slightly worse than George Bush in 2004. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in big cities and urban areas while McCain improved upon Bush in rural areas. Kentucky was the first state called for McCain an hour before Vermont was called for Obama.

At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also served as Senate Minority Leader at the time, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which Rowan County, Hancock County, Menifee County, Wolfe County, and Henderson County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results
United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,048,462 57.40% 8
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 751,985 41.17% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 15,378 0.84% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 5,989 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,694 0.26% 0
Totals 1,826,508 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%

Results breakdown

By county
County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Adair25.11%1,88873.32%5,5121.57%1187,518
Allen27.38%2,02371.16%5,2581.46%1087,389
Anderson32.81%3,46165.25%6,8841.94%20510,550
Ballard35.15%1,42762.49%2,5372.36%964,060
Barren32.33%5,43466.24%11,1331.43%24016,807
Bath48.65%2,21049.17%2,2342.18%994,543
Bell28.99%2,78269.61%6,6811.41%1359,598
Boone32.09%16,29266.59%33,8121.32%67050,774
Bourbon40.64%3,38557.86%4,8201.50%1258,330
Boyd42.99%8,88655.30%11,4291.71%35420,669
Boyle37.73%4,76460.96%7,6971.31%16512,626
Bracken36.51%1,24160.78%2,0662.71%923,399
Breathitt43.84%2,20553.10%2,6713.06%1545,030
Breckinridge36.49%3,11061.97%5,2811.54%1318,522
Bullitt33.12%10,17765.42%20,1021.45%44730,726
Butler29.30%1,55569.64%3,6961.06%565,307
Caldwell35.68%2,21262.36%3,8661.95%1216,199
Calloway40.02%6,16558.37%8,9911.61%24815,404
Campbell38.77%15,61959.68%24,0451.55%62640,290
Carlisle33.59%87964.92%1,6991.49%392,617
Carroll44.75%1,71652.99%2,0322.27%873,835
Carter43.97%4,31453.53%5,2522.50%2459,811
Casey20.46%1,21978.55%4,6790.99%595,957
Christian39.15%8,82259.97%13,5150.88%19922,536
Clark36.79%5,74961.84%9,6641.38%21515,628
Clay21.08%1,55277.54%5,7101.39%1027,364
Clinton18.24%76180.68%3,3661.08%454,172
Crittenden31.91%1,25466.26%2,6041.83%723,930
Cumberland24.92%69773.51%2,0561.57%442,797
Daviess44.20%19,28254.31%23,6921.49%64843,622
Edmonson31.35%1,65267.59%3,5621.06%565,270
Elliott61.03%1,53535.86%9023.10%782,515
Estill29.26%1,55569.35%3,6851.39%745,314
Fayette51.74%66,04046.92%59,8841.34%1,713127,637
Fleming39.08%2,27958.85%3,4322.07%1215,832
Floyd48.09%7,53049.43%7,7412.48%38815,659
Franklin48.87%11,76749.47%11,9111.67%40124,079
Fulton43.58%1,22654.39%1,5302.03%572,813
Gallatin40.03%1,27857.63%1,8402.35%753,193
Garrard27.91%2,01270.98%5,1171.11%807,209
Grant35.15%3,10963.37%5,6051.48%1318,845
Graves36.17%5,84362.25%10,0561.58%25616,155
Grayson31.85%3,15466.70%6,6051.45%1449,903
Green23.71%1,20474.52%3,7851.77%905,079
Greenup41.91%6,62156.01%8,8492.08%32815,798
Hancock51.49%2,12846.55%1,9241.96%814,133
Hardin39.13%15,65059.75%23,8961.11%44439,990
Harlan26.08%2,58672.27%7,1651.64%1639,914
Harrison38.42%2,91659.55%4,5202.03%1547,590
Hart33.59%2,29064.49%4,3971.92%1316,818
Henderson50.60%10,04947.95%9,5231.46%28919,861
Henry39.38%2,72458.99%4,0811.63%1136,918
Hickman36.09%81262.49%1,4061.42%322,250
Hopkins36.72%7,10461.59%11,9161.70%32819,348
Jackson14.22%74384.36%4,4071.42%745,224
Jefferson55.50%196,27243.51%153,8650.99%3,500353,637
Jessamine30.85%6,23667.83%13,7101.32%26720,213
Johnson28.26%2,41369.84%5,9641.90%1628,539
Kenton38.82%26,48059.69%40,7141.49%1,01968,213
Knott44.97%2,52352.58%2,9502.46%1385,611
Knox26.99%3,07471.56%8,1501.45%16511,389
LaRue30.96%1,91367.22%4,1531.81%1126,178
Laurel20.52%4,59378.48%17,5630.99%22222,378
Lawrence36.04%2,03662.01%3,5031.95%1105,649
Lee27.12%75271.33%1,9781.55%432,773
Leslie17.42%76681.28%3,5741.30%574,397
Letcher31.85%2,62365.17%5,3672.98%2458,235
Lewis31.52%1,51067.06%3,2131.42%684,791
Lincoln30.07%2,75268.55%6,2731.38%1269,151
Livingston35.31%1,62262.92%2,8901.76%814,593
Logan35.00%3,81163.59%6,9251.41%15410,890
Lyon40.91%1,57757.59%2,2201.50%583,855
McCracken38.12%12,39260.57%19,6941.31%42632,512
McCreary45.66%2,10552.80%2,4341.54%714,610
McLean44.39%1,96353.96%2,3861.65%734,422
Madison36.07%5,59361.02%9,4632.91%45115,507
Magoffin21.58%80875.43%2,8242.99%1123,744
Marion40.32%2,89157.21%4,1022.47%1777,170
Marshall36.85%11,28562.19%19,0430.95%29230,620
Martin23.31%1,25875.57%4,0781.11%605,396
Mason40.60%2,89157.60%4,1021.8%1287,121
Meade38.76%4,34359.71%6,6911.53%17211,206
Menifee51.27%1,27646.40%1,1552.33%582,489
Mercer31.40%3,15967.41%6,7811.19%12010,060
Metcalfe32.15%1,35065.11%2,7342.74%1154,199
Monroe22.87%1,06775.82%3,5371.31%614,665
Montgomery40.98%4,23457.56%5,9471.45%15010,331
Morgan42.82%1,85854.78%2,3772.40%1044,339
Muhlenberg48.27%6,22150.02%6,4471.71%22112,889
Nelson42.18%7,65455.87%10,1391.95%35318,146
Nicholas42.83%1,27255.02%1,6342.15%642,970
Ohio40.46%4,05957.63%5,7811.91%19210,032
Oldham34.11%9,99664.80%18,9921.09%31929,307
Owen35.66%1,69462.49%2,9691.85%884,751
Owsley22.60%38175.86%1,2791.54%261,686
Pendleton34.94%2,02763.36%3,6761.71%995,802
Perry33.20%3,44465.18%6,7621.63%16910,375
Pike42.05%9,52555.91%12,6652.04%46322,653
Powell41.28%2,06557.32%2,8671.40%705,002
Pulaski21.70%5,59077.09%19,8621.22%31425,766
Robertson44.43%45152.51%5333.05%311,015
Rockcastle22.47%1,41075.82%4,7571.71%1076,274
Rowan49.96%4,07447.92%3,9072.12%1738,154
Russell21.31%1,57976.97%5,7021.71%1277,408
Scott39.09%7,71259.72%11,7821.20%23619,730
Shelby37.06%6,87161.76%11,4511.18%21818,540
Simpson37.97%2,77560.71%4,4371.33%977,309
Spencer31.30%2,51966.82%5,3781.89%1528,049
Taylor29.14%3,16569.69%7,5681.17%12710,860
Todd31.23%1,54367.52%3,3361.25%624,941
Trigg34.41%2,24664.18%4,1891.41%926,527
Trimble38.93%1,48458.74%2,2392.33%893,812
Union46.47%2,80451.71%3,1201.82%1106,034
Warren40.03%17,65058.87%25,9571.10%48344,090
Washington35.83%1,89062.65%3,3051.52%805,275
Wayne30.59%2,20167.65%4,8681.76%1277,196
Webster43.14%2,39054.82%3,0372.04%1135,540
Whitley25.43%3,48473.08%10,0141.50%20513,703
Wolfe50.30%1,49347.44%1,4082.26%672,968
Woodford40.88%5,02757.98%7,1301.14%14012,297

By congressional district

John McCain carried 5 of the state's 6 congressional districts, including one of the two districts held by a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.85% 36.60% Ed Whitfield
2nd 60.54% 38.03% Ron Lewis (110th Congress)
Brett Guthrie (111th Congress)
3rd 43.36% 55.66% John Yarmuth
4th 60.41% 37.96% Geoff Davis
5th 67.01% 31.24% Hal Rogers
6th 55.41% 43.22% Ben Chandler

Electors
Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[18] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[19]

  1. James Henry Snider
  2. Walter A. Baker
  3. Edna M. Fulkerson
  4. Amy B. Towles
  5. Nancy Mitchell
  6. Don Ball
  7. Robert Gable
  8. Elizabeth G. Thomas

References
  1. https://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Statistics/turnout/2006-2010/08gen.pdf
  2. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-20.
  3. Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  4. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  5. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  6. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  7. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  8. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  9. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. roadto270
  13. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  14. Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-20.
  16. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  19. Kentucky's electors » Archive » Evening News and Tribune
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