United States Senate election in New York, 2012

United States Senate election in New York, 2012
November 6, 2012
Turnout 53.2% (voting eligible)[1]

 
Nominee Kirsten Gillibrand Wendy Long
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 4,822,330 1,758,702
Percentage 72.2% 26.3%
County results
U.S. Senator before election

Kirsten Gillibrand
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Kirsten Gillibrand
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won re-election to her first full term. She was opposed in the general election by Wendy Long (who ran on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets) and by three minor party candidates. Gillibrand was re-elected with 72% of the vote, by a margin of 46%, the highest margin for any statewide candidate in New York. She performed 9 points better than President Barack Obama did in the presidential race in New York. She carried 60 out of 62 counties statewide. There was one debate, held in October 2012, in which Gillibrand and Long debated various issues such as the economy, abortion rights, the debt and deficit, foreign policy, jobs, and tax and regulatory policy.

Background

Governor David Paterson appointed then-U.S. Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. Senator from New York until the 2010 special election, succeeding former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton, who resigned to serve as U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Gillibrand won the special election in 2010 with 62.95% of the vote over former U.S. Representative Joseph DioGuardi.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Gillibrand has also been endorsed by the Independence Party of New York and the Working Families Party, and also appeared on the ballot lines of both of those parties in the general election.[3][4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

The 2012 New York State Republican Convention took place on March 16, 2012.[8] Candidates Wendy Long, George Maragos, and Congressman Bob Turner each reached the threshold of 25% of the weighted vote necessary to qualify for the June 26 primary ballot; however, none of the candidates achieved a majority.[9] Long prevailed by a sizeable margin in the June 26 Republican primary, receiving 50.9% of the vote; Turner received 35.6% and Maragos 13.5%.[10]

Long was designated as the nominee for the Conservative Party of New York State, and appeared on its ballot line in the general election as well as the Republican Party line.[4][11]

Withdrew

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Wendy
Long		 George
Maragos		 Bob
Turner		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac March 28 – April 2, 2012 372 ±5.1% 11% 7% 19% 2% 61%
Siena College April 1–4, 2012 218 ±6.6% 10% 5% 19% — 66%
Siena College May 6–10, 2012 205 ±6.8% 12% 6% 15% — 67%
Siena College June 3–6, 2012 201 ±6.9% 11% 3% 16% — 70%

Endorsements

Endorsements for Wendy Long
Endorsements for Bob Turner

Source: Update for US Senate Election NY 2012: http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/USSenator_07292013.pdf

Results

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Wendy Long 75,924 50.2%
Republican Bob Turner 54,196 35.9%
Republican George Maragos 21,002 13.9%
Total votes 151,122 100.0%

General election

Candidates

  • Colia Clark (Green), civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[15]
  • Chris Edes (Libertarian), Member of the New York Civil Liberties Union Board of Directors[16]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic, Working Families, Independence), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Wendy Long (Republican, Conservative), attorney
  • John Mangelli (Common Sense Party), Long Island foreclosure defense attorney
  • Scott Noren (Independent), oral surgeon (had previously sought the Democratic nomination)[15][17]
  • Tim Sweet (Independent-Republican), former social worker, journalist, pastor, businessman, author, and actor[18]

Debates

October 17, 2012 Saratoga Springs, NY

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) $13,778,867 $3,734,097 $10,541,156 $0
Wendy Long (R) $336,976 $240,564 $96,411 $250,077
Chris Edes (L) $2,017 $668 $1,348 $0
John Mangelli (I) $43,819 $43,820 $0 $22,120
Source: Federal Election Commission[19][20][21][22]

Top contributors

[23]

Kirsten Gillibrand Contribution Wendy Long Contribution
Boies, Schiller & Flexner $394,664 Citizens United $10,000
Davis Polk & Wardwell $314,600 Susan B. Anthony List $10,000
Corning Inc. $150,650 Davis, Polk & Wardwell $8,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co $143,800 Kirkland & Ellis $7,000
Morgan Stanley $140,800 Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz $6,000
National Amusements Inc. $126,850 Alta Partners $5,500
Goldman Sachs $117,400 Actimize $5,000
Blackstone Group $106,700 Carlyle Group $5,000
Sullivan & Cromwell $100,750 Credit Suisse Group $5,000
Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett $95,700 Crow Holdings $5,000

Top industries

[24]

Kirsten Gillibrand Contribution Wendy Long Contribution
Lawyers/law firms $4,050,294 Lawyers/law firms $38,550
Financial Institutions $2,748,640 Financial institutions $31,750
Real estate $1,257,504 Real estate $26,250
Retired $921,738 Retired $25,050
Women's issues $853,517 Misc. finance $16,000
Entertainment industry $764,677 Women's issues $15,150
Lobbyists $723,596 Republican/Conservative $11,250
Misc. finance $644,953 Education $7,250
Business services $621,286 Misc. business $7,000
Insurance $518,275 Construction services $5,000

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Solid D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Safe D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[27] Safe D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[28] Safe D November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		 Wendy
Long (R)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac March 28 – April 2, 2012 1,597 ±2.5% 58% 25% 1% 13%
Siena College April 1–4, 2012 808 ±3.4% 63% 23% — 14%
Siena College May 6–10, 2012 766 ±3.5% 60% 26% — 14%
Quinnipiac May 22–28, 2012 1,504 ±2.5% 58% 24% 1% 15%
Siena College June 3–6, 2012 807 ±3.4% 65% 22% — 12%
Siena College July 10–15, 2012 758 ±3.6% 62% 25% — 13%
Quinnipiac July 17–23, 2012 1,779 ±2.3% 57% 24% 1% 16%
Siena College August 14–19, 2012 671 ±3.8% 65% 22% — 13%
Quinnipiac September 4–9, 2012 1,468 ±2.5% 64% 27% — 9%
Marist October 18–21, 2012 565 ±4.1% 68% 24% — 8%
Siena College October 22–24, 2012 750 ±3.6% 67% 24% — 8%
SurveyUSA October 23–25, 2012 554 ±4.1% 64% 22% 7% 7%
Hypothetical polling
with George Maragos
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		 George
Maragos (R)		 Other Undecided
Siena College November 8–13, 2011 803 ±3.5% 65% 17% — 18%
Siena College January 8–12, 2012 805 ±3.5% 63% 22% — 15%
Siena College January 29 – February 1, 2012 807 ±3.4% 63% 20% — 17%
SurveyUSA February 24–26, 2012 518 ±4.4% 53% 23% — 25%
Siena College February 26–29, 2012 808 ±3.4% 68% 19% — 13%
Quinnipiac March 28 – April 2, 2012 1,597 ±2.5% 57% 23% 2% 15%
Siena College April 1–4, 2012 808 ±3.4% 65% 21% — 14%
Siena College May 6–10, 2012 766 ±3.5% 60% 25% — 15%
Quinnipiac May 22–28, 2012 1,504 ±2.5% 57% 24% 1% 16%
Siena College June 3–6, 2012 807 ±3.4% 65% 23% — 13%
with Bob Turner
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		 Bob
Turner (R)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac March 28 – April 2, 2012 1,597 ±2.5% 57% 27% 1% 13%
Siena College April 1–4, 2012 808 ±3.4% 65% 24% — 11%
Siena College May 6–10, 2012 766 ±3.5% 59% 25% — 15%
Quinnipiac May 22–28, 2012 1,504 ±2.5% 56% 26% 0% 15%
Siena College June 3–6, 2012 807 ±3.4% 63% 25% — 11%
with Marc Cenedella
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		 Marc
Cenedella (R)		 Undecided
Siena College January 29 – February 1, 2012 807 ±3.4% 65% 18% 17%
with Harry Wilson
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		 Harry
Wilson (R)		 Undecided
Siena College November 8–13, 2011 803 ±3.5% 63% 21% 16%
Siena College January 8–12, 2012 805 ±3.5% 63% 23% 14%

Results

According to preliminary results, Gillibrand won re-election by a landslide margin with over 70% of the vote on November 6, 2012.

United States Senate election in New York, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand (Incumbent) 4,822,330 72.22% +9.22%
Republican Wendy Elizabeth Long 1,758,702 26.34%
Green Colia Clark 36,547 0.60%
Libertarian Chris Edes 28,315 0.50%
Independent John Mangelli 20,223 0.30%
Write-In Write-In 2,001 0.02%
Majority 3,053,412
Turnout 6,677,666 100.00%

See also

References

  1. ↑ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ↑ Hill, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Day after win, NY Sen. Gillibrand is running again". Associated Press. Retrieved December 28, 2010.
  3. ↑ Johnson, Michael (March 12, 2012). "State Independence Party Backs Gillibrand". Capital Tonight. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  4. 1 2 "New York Democrats back Kirsten Gillibrand for US Senate; Conservatives pick Wendy Long". The Post-Standard. Associated Press. March 19, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  5. ↑ Benjamin, Liz (January 29, 2012). "A New Challenger To Gillibrand?". Capital Tonight. Retrieved January 30, 2012.
  6. ↑ "U.S. Senate Hopeful Speaks to Rockland Republicans - Pearl River, NY Patch". patch.com.
  7. ↑ Campbell, Colin (March 13, 2012). "Bob Turner Announces U.S. Senate Campaign Against Kirsten Gillibrand". Politicker. Retrieved March 13, 2012.
  8. ↑ Seiler, Casey (February 19, 2012). Save the date: GOP plans March 16 convention. Capitol Confidential (Albany Times-Union). Retrieved February 19, 2012.
  9. ↑ Benjamin, Liz (March 16, 2012). Three-Way GOP Primary For US Senate. Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  10. ↑ "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". Wall Street Journal. News Corporation. June 27, 2012. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
  11. ↑ "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". WSJ.com. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012.
  12. ↑ Vielkind, Jimmy (February 29, 2012). "Joe Carvin of Rye also challenging Gillibrand". Albany Times Union. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  13. ↑ Benjamin, Elizabeth (March 16, 2012). Carvin Out Of US Senate Race (Updated). Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
  14. ↑ "2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub.
  15. 1 2 "Liberal Alternatives To Kirsten Gillibrand". Irregular Times. April 16, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
  16. ↑ "Vote For Chris". www.vote-for-chris.net.
  17. ↑ Sultanik, Sara (January 24, 2011). "Ithaca Man to Run for U.S. Senate". WETM-TV. Retrieved January 24, 2011.
  18. ↑ "Alumnus vies for New York senate - The Daily Collegian Online". psu.edu.
  19. ↑ "Gillibrand Campaign Finances". fec.gov.
  20. ↑ "Long Campaign Finances". fec.gov.
  21. ↑ "Mangelli Campaign Finances". fec.gov.
  22. ↑ "Edes Campaign Finances". fec.gov.
  23. ↑ "New York Senate Race". opensecrets.org.
  24. ↑ "Kansas District 04 Race". opensecrets.org.
  25. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  27. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  28. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
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