2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky
The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the presidential election which occurred simultaneously, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin.
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 County Results
McConnell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Lunsford: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
In 2007 Kentucky's unpopular Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, lost his re-election bid. The Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections and in October Chuck Schumer acknowledged they were aiming for McConnell's seat.[1]
State auditor Crit Luallen was considered a top contender for the Democratic nomination, but she decided to remain as auditor.[2] Lunsford was asked to run by Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear.[3] Seven candidates competed for the Democratic Primary nomination. The primaries for both parties took place on May 20, 2008 in which Lunsford took more than 50%.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Daniel Essek
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 168,127 | 86.09% | |
| Republican | Daniel Essek | 27,170 | 13.91% | |
| Total votes | 195,297 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Michael Cassaro
- Greg Fischer, businessman, Mayor of Louisville
- Bruce Lunsford, former Kentucky Secretary of Commerce and candidate for Governor in 2003 and 2007
- James Rice
- Kenneth Stepp
- David Williams
- David Wylie
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 316,992 | 51.15% | |
| Democratic | Greg Fischer | 209,827 | 33.85% | |
| Democratic | David L. Williams | 34,363 | 5.54% | |
| Democratic | Michael Cassaro | 17,340 | 2.80% | |
| Democratic | Kenneth Stepp | 13,451 | 2.17% | |
| Democratic | David Wylie | 7,528 | 1.21% | |
| Democratic | James E. Rice | 2,365 | 3.28% | |
| Total votes | 619,904 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Bruce Lunsford (D), businessman
- Mitch McConnell (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
Campaign
In October Lunsford and McConnell were statistically tied in the polls. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders."[6]
A debate scheduled for October 7 hosted by the League of Women Voters was canceled when incumbent McConnell decided not to participate even though Lunsford announced he wanted to debate.[7]
On November 2, 2008, media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal noted that the website of The New Republic had reported that anti-McConnell flyers questioning the senator's sexuality as well as the reasons for his 1967 military discharge were being distributed in Kentucky.[8][9]
Predictions
CQ Politics rated this race as 'Republican Favored',[10] but later rated it 'Leans Republican'.[10] The Cook Political Report considered it 'Lean Republican'.[11] The Rothenberg Political Report once considered it a 'Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party'[12] but later called the race 'Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party'.[13]
Polling
| Poll Source | Dates administered | Lunsford | McConnell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voter/Consumer Research | January 6–8, 2008 | 37% | 52% |
| Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV |
May 7–9, 2008 | 36% | 48% |
| Voter/Consumer Research | May 21–22, 2008 | 39% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 22, 2008 | 49% | 44% |
| Survey USA | June 13–16, 2008 | 46% | 50% |
| Voter/Consumer Research | June 15–17, 2008 | 39% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 25, 2008 | 41% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 29, 2008 | 42% | 52% |
| Survey USA | August 11, 2008 | 40% | 52% |
| Voter/Consumer Research | September 7–9, 2008 | 35% | 52% |
| Research 2000 for Daily Kos | September 15–17, 2008 | 37% | 50% |
| SurveyUSA | September 21–22, 2008 | 46% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 30, 2008 | 42% | 51% |
| SurveyUSA | October 20, 2008 | 48% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 21, 2008 | 43% | 50% |
| Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV |
October 22, 2008 | 43% | 47% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 29, 2008 | 44% | 51% |
| Survey USA | November 1, 2008 | 45% | 53% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 953,816 | 52.97% | -11.7% | |
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 847,005 | 47.03% | +11.7% | |
| Total votes | '1,800,821' | '100.0%' | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Results breakdown
Election results by county. Red indicates McConnell led in a county, while blue indicates that Lunsford received more votes. Counties are shaded to indicate the margin of victory.
| County[15] | Precincts | Reporting | Lunsford | % Lunsford | McConnell | % McConnell | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 16 | 16 | 2,198 | 30.88% | 4,920 | 69.12% | 7,118 (R) |
| Allen | 13 | 13 | 2,331 | 31.85% | 4,987 | 68.15% | 7,318 (R) |
| Anderson | 14 | 14 | 4,787 | 46.27% | 5,558 | 53.73% | 10,345 (R) |
| Ballard | 13 | 13 | 1,893 | 46.68% | 2,162 | 53.32% | 4,055 (R) |
| Barren | 24 | 24 | 6,735 | 41.15% | 9,630 | 58.85% | 16,365 (R) |
| Bath | 12 | 12 | 2,747 | 61.36% | 1,730 | 38.64% | 4,477 (D) |
| Bell | 33 | 33 | 3,494 | 38.83% | 5,505 | 61.17% | 8,999 (R) |
| Boone | 60 | 60 | 15,224 | 30.75% | 34,285 | 69.25% | 49,509 (R) |
| Bourbon | 18 | 18 | 4,325 | 52.26% | 3,951 | 47.74% | 8,276 (D) |
| Boyd | 47 | 47 | 11,174 | 54.23% | 9,430 | 45.77% | 20,604 (D) |
| Boyle | 25 | 25 | 5,854 | 46.90% | 6,627 | 53.10% | 12,481 (R) |
| Bracken | 8 | 8 | 1,382 | 41.17% | 1,975 | 58.83% | 3,357 (R) |
| Breathitt | 21 | 21 | 3,111 | 61.41% | 1,955 | 38.59% | 5,066 (D) |
| Breckinridge | 15 | 15 | 3,736 | 44.02% | 4,752 | 55.98% | 8,488 (R) |
| Bullitt | 44 | 44 | 12,501 | 41.85% | 17,368 | 58.15% | 29,869 (R) |
| Butler | 12 | 12 | 1,771 | 33.59% | 3,501 | 66.41% | 5,272 (R) |
| Caldwell | 13 | 13 | 2,821 | 46.30% | 3,272 | 53.70% | 6,093 (R) |
| Calloway | 30 | 30 | 6,870 | 45.39% | 8,266 | 54.61% | 15,136 (R) |
| Campbell | 66 | 66 | 14,789 | 37.55% | 24,591 | 62.45% | 39,380 (R) |
| Carlisle | 6 | 6 | 1,220 | 46.51% | 1,403 | 53.49% | 2,623 (R) |
| Carroll | 11 | 11 | 2,157 | 57.23% | 1,612 | 42.77% | 3,769 (D) |
| Carter | 23 | 23 | 5,220 | 53.74% | 4,494 | 46.26% | 9,714 (D) |
| Casey | 15 | 15 | 1,783 | 30.55% | 4,053 | 69.45% | 5,836 (R) |
| Christian | 44 | 44 | 9,030 | 40.79% | 13,109 | 59.21% | 22,139 (R) |
| Clark | 26 | 26 | 7,436 | 48.49% | 7,898 | 51.51% | 15,334 (R) |
| Clay | 20 | 20 | 2,458 | 33.85% | 4,804 | 66.15% | 7,262 (R) |
| Clinton | 13 | 13 | 1,029 | 25.42% | 3,019 | 74.58% | 4,048 (R) |
| Crittenden | 12 | 12 | 1,615 | 41.59% | 2,268 | 58.41% | 3,883 (R) |
| Cumberland | 9 | 9 | 763 | 28.62% | 1,903 | 71.38% | 2,666 (R) |
| Daviess | 84 | 84 | 20,779 | 47.94% | 22,563 | 52.06% | 43,342 (R) |
| Edmonson | 10 | 10 | 1,996 | 38.06% | 3,249 | 61.94% | 5,245 (R) |
| Elliott | 7 | 7 | 1,830 | 71.99% | 712 | 28.01% | 2,542 (R) |
| Estill | 15 | 15 | 2,162 | 41.36% | 3,065 | 58.64% | 5,227 (R) |
| Fayette | 274 | 274 | 68,029 | 54.15% | 57,605 | 45.85% | 125,634 (R) |
| Fleming | 18 | 18 | 2,845 | 50.04% | 2,841 | 49.96% | 5,686 (D) |
| Floyd | 42 | 42 | 10,105 | 64.35% | 5,598 | 35.65% | 15,703 (D) |
| Franklin | 44 | 44 | 13,888 | 59.00% | 9,651 | 41.00% | 23,539 (R) |
| Fulton | 13 | 13 | 1,456 | 53.49% | 1,266 | 46.51% | 2,722 (D) |
| Gallatin | 8 | 8 | 1,435 | 45.66% | 1,708 | 54.34% | 3,143 (R) |
| Garrard | 13 | 13 | 2,858 | 40.11% | 4,268 | 59.89% | 7,126 (R) |
| Grant | 23 | 23 | 3,408 | 39.33% | 5,257 | 60.67% | 8,665 (R) |
| Graves | 30 | 30 | 7,839 | 48.76% | 8,239 | 51.24% | 16,078 (R) |
| Grayson | 23 | 23 | 3,863 | 39.23% | 5,983 | 60.77% | 9,846 (R) |
| Green | 10 | 10 | 1,777 | 35.73% | 3,197 | 64.27% | 4,974 (R) |
| Greenup | 32 | 32 | 8,258 | 52.83% | 7,374 | 47.17% | 15,632 (D) |
| Hancock | 10 | 10 | 2,298 | 56.09% | 1,799 | 43.91% | 4,097 (D) |
| Hardin | 55 | 55 | 17,318 | 43.68% | 22,326 | 56.32% | 39,644 (R) |
| Harlan | 35 | 35 | 4,440 | 45.92% | 5,229 | 54.08% | 9,669 (R) |
| Harrison | 17 | 17 | 3,814 | 50.47% | 3,743 | 49.53% | 7,557 (D) |
| Hart | 19 | 19 | 2,962 | 44.60% | 3,680 | 55.40% | 6,642 (R) |
| Henderson | 42 | 42 | 11,048 | 56.06% | 8,659 | 43.94% | 19,707 (D) |
| Henry | 20 | 20 | 3,194 | 46.52% | 3,672 | 53.48% | 6,866 (R) |
| Hickman | 6 | 6 | 1,049 | 47.49% | 1,160 | 52.51% | 2,209 (R) |
| Hopkins | 40 | 40 | 8,481 | 44.87% | 10,419 | 55.13% | 18,900 (R) |
| Jackson | 14 | 14 | 1,245 | 24.71% | 3,794 | 75.29% | 5,039 (R) |
| Jefferson | 515 | 515 | 195,401 | 55.73% | 155,241 | 44.27% | 350,642 (D) |
| Jessamine | 37 | 37 | 7,847 | 39.60% | 11,969 | 60.40% | 19,816 (R) |
| Johnson | 31 | 31 | 3,252 | 38.81% | 5,128 | 61.19% | 8,380 (R) |
| Kenton | 108 | 108 | 19,217 | 36.26% | 33,787 | 63.74% | 53,004 (R) |
| Knott | 30 | 30 | 3,477 | 62.14% | 2,118 | 37.86% | 5,595 (D) |
| Knox | 30 | 30 | 4,329 | 39.01% | 6,767 | 60.99% | 11,096 (R) |
| LaRue | 12 | 12 | 2,523 | 41.97% | 3,489 | 58.03% | 6,012 (R) |
| Laurel | 45 | 45 | 6,850 | 31.15% | 15,138 | 68.85% | 21,988 (R) |
| Lawrence | 18 | 18 | 2,641 | 47.47% | 2,923 | 52.53% | 5,564 (R) |
| Lee | 10 | 10 | 1,073 | 39.77% | 1,625 | 60.23% | 2,698 (R) |
| Leslie | 17 | 17 | 1,083 | 25.15% | 3,224 | 74.85% | 4,307 (R) |
| Letcher | 32 | 32 | 4,198 | 51.82% | 3,903 | 48.18% | 8,101 (D) |
| Lewis | 14 | 14 | 1,787 | 38.26% | 2,884 | 61.74% | 4,671 (R) |
| Lincoln | 17 | 17 | 4,119 | 45.47% | 4,939 | 54.53% | 9,058 (R) |
| Livingston | 10 | 10 | 2,142 | 47.35% | 2,382 | 52.65% | 4,524 (R) |
| Logan | 20 | 20 | 4,379 | 40.70% | 6,379 | 59.30% | 10,758 (R) |
| Lyon | 6 | 6 | 1,821 | 47.80% | 1,989 | 52.20% | 3,810 (R) |
| McCracken | 54 | 54 | 13,006 | 42.91% | 17,303 | 57.09% | 30,309 (D) |
| McCreary | 18 | 18 | 1,576 | 30.41% | 3,606 | 69.59% | 5,182 (R) |
| McLean | 8 | 8 | 2,225 | 50.55% | 2,177 | 49.45% | 4,402 (D) |
| Madison | 56 | 56 | 14,657 | 45.96% | 17,237 | 54.04% | 31,894 (R) |
| Magoffin | 14 | 14 | 2,719 | 58.81% | 1,904 | 41.19% | 4,623 (D) |
| Marion | 17 | 17 | 4,304 | 57.68% | 3,158 | 42.32% | 7,462 (D) |
| Marshall | 25 | 25 | 7,463 | 48.94% | 7,785 | 51.06% | 15,248 (R) |
| Martin | 14 | 14 | 1,203 | 33.19% | 2,422 | 66.81% | 3,625 (R) |
| Mason | 20 | 20 | 3,095 | 44.58% | 3,847 | 55.42% | 6,942 (R) |
| Meade | 18 | 18 | 5,149 | 46.58% | 5,905 | 53.42% | 11,054 (R) |
| Menifee | 6 | 6 | 1,520 | 61.51% | 951 | 38.49% | 2,471 (D) |
| Mercer | 17 | 17 | 4,338 | 44.17% | 5,484 | 55.83% | 9,822 (R) |
| Metcalfe | 12 | 12 | 1,766 | 44.03% | 2,245 | 55.97% | 4,011 (R) |
| Monroe | 12 | 12 | 1,237 | 27.16% | 3,318 | 72.84% | 4,555 (R) |
| Montgomery | 18 | 18 | 5,526 | 54.25% | 4,660 | 45.75% | 10,186 (D) |
| Morgan | 12 | 12 | 2,475 | 57.03% | 1,865 | 42.97% | 4,340 (D) |
| Muhlenberg | 26 | 26 | 7,436 | 57.90% | 5,406 | 42.10% | 12,842 (R) |
| Nelson | 26 | 26 | 8,823 | 49.60% | 8,965 | 50.40% | 17,788 (R) |
| Nicholas | 5 | 5 | 1,737 | 59.47% | 1,184 | 40.53% | 2,921 (D) |
| Ohio | 25 | 25 | 4,664 | 47.08% | 5,242 | 52.92% | 9,906 (R) |
| Oldham | 34 | 34 | 10,204 | 35.25% | 18,744 | 64.75% | 28,948 (R) |
| Owen | 13 | 13 | 2,019 | 42.93% | 2,684 | 57.07% | 4,703 (R) |
| Owsley | 8 | 8 | 559 | 34.46% | 1,063 | 65.54% | 1,622 (R) |
| Pendleton | 12 | 12 | 2,155 | 37.97% | 3,520 | 62.03% | 5,675 (R) |
| Perry | 37 | 37 | 5,026 | 49.10% | 5,211 | 50.90% | 10,237 (R) |
| Pike | 57 | 57 | 12,912 | 57.16% | 9,679 | 42.84% | 22,591 (D) |
| Powell | 11 | 11 | 2,863 | 57.91% | 2,081 | 42.09% | 4,944 (D) |
| Pulaski | 57 | 57 | 8,108 | 32.20% | 17,072 | 67.80% | 25,180 (R) |
| Robertson | 5 | 5 | 498 | 49.21% | 514 | 50.79% | 1,012 (R) |
| Rockcastle | 14 | 14 | 1,837 | 30.55% | 4,177 | 69.45% | 6,014 (R) |
| Rowan | 18 | 18 | 4,710 | 58.71% | 3,312 | 41.29% | 8,022 (D) |
| Russell | 16 | 16 | 2,450 | 33.67% | 4,827 | 66.33% | 7,277 (R) |
| Scott | 35 | 35 | 9,238 | 47.36% | 10,267 | 52.64% | 19,505 (R) |
| Shelby | 33 | 33 | 7,546 | 41.15% | 10,790 | 58.85% | 18,336 (R) |
| Simpson | 13 | 13 | 3,118 | 44.29% | 3,922 | 55.71% | 7,040 (R) |
| Spencer | 11 | 11 | 3,159 | 39.64% | 4,811 | 60.36% | 7,970 (R) |
| Taylor | 20 | 20 | 4,163 | 38.52% | 6,644 | 61.48% | 10,807 (R) |
| Todd | 13 | 13 | 1,772 | 36.89% | 3,032 | 63.11% | 4,804 (R) |
| Trigg | 14 | 14 | 2,637 | 40.76% | 3,833 | 59.24% | 6,470 (R) |
| Trimble | 12 | 12 | 1,927 | 50.87% | 1,861 | 49.13% | 3,788 (D) |
| Union | 16 | 16 | 3,335 | 55.46% | 2,678 | 44.54% | 6,013 (D) |
| Warren | 63 | 63 | 19,162 | 43.84% | 24,547 | 56.16% | 43,709 (R) |
| Washington | 14 | 14 | 2,316 | 45.04% | 2,826 | 54.96% | 5,142 (R) |
| Wayne | 19 | 19 | 3,045 | 43.30% | 3,987 | 56.70% | 7,032 (R) |
| Webster | 14 | 14 | 3,000 | 54.39% | 2,516 | 45.61% | 5,516 (D) |
| Whitley | 36 | 36 | 4,849 | 36.37% | 8,484 | 63.63% | 13,333 (R) |
| Wolfe | 8 | 8 | 1,886 | 62.74% | 1,120 | 37.26% | 3,006 (D) |
| Woodford | 16 | 16 | 5,903 | 48.65% | 6,231 | 51.35% | 12,134 (R) |
References
- Stein, Sam (October 31, 2007). "Schumer Takes Aim At Senate's Top Republican". Huffington Post. Retrieved October 31, 2007.
- Daily Kos: KY-Sen: Schumer says Crit is in
- Gerth, Joseph (January 30, 2008). "Lunsford to challenge McConnell; Lewis is out". Courier-Journal.
- "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved August 1, 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
- "2008 Kentucky Statewide Election Results by Office". Kentucky State Board of Elections. June 11, 2008. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
- "McConnell, Lunsford race a dead heat". The Courier-Journal. September 27, 2008. Retrieved September 27, 2008.
- "Lunsford-McConnell Debate Now Off". Kentucky Post. September 30, 2008. Archived from the original on October 11, 2008. Retrieved October 17, 2008.
- "McConnell Outing Controversy Breaks Into National Mainstream Media". Proud of Who We Are (Press release). Proud of Who We Are. November 3, 2008.
- Michelle, Cottle; Orr, Christopher; Zengerle, Jason (November 2, 2008). "Democratic Gay-Baiting? You Don't Say..." The New Republic. Archived from the original on November 6, 2008.
- Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
- 2008 Senate Race Ratings Archived November 20, 2008, at the Wayback Machine The Cook Political Report, October 9, 2008
- 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, July 19, 2008
- 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 29, 2008
- http://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Results/2000-2009/2008/General%20Election/STATEwide%20by%20office%20gen%2008.txt
- http://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Results/2000-2009/2008/General%20Election/STATEwide%20by%20candidate%20by%20county%20gen%2008.txt
External links
- Kentucky State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for Kentucky at Project Vote Smart
- "Kentucky, U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on May 4, 2008. Retrieved June 27, 2008. – CQ Politics
- Kentucky U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- "Kentucky U.S. Senate race". Archived from the original on June 22, 2008. Retrieved July 26, 2008. – 2008 Race Tracker
- "Campaign contributions". Archived from the original on June 12, 2008. Retrieved July 21, 2016.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link) – OpenSecrets.org
- "McConnell (R-i) vs Lunsford (D)". Archived from the original on October 12, 2009. Retrieved May 23, 2008. – graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites
- "Bruce Lunsford for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on March 24, 2008. Retrieved September 9, 2016.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link) – Democratic nominee
- Mitch McConnell for Senate – Republican nominee
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