Cardiff North (UK Parliament constituency)

Coordinates: 51°31′01″N 3°12′11″W / 51.517°N 3.203°W / 51.517; -3.203

Cardiff North
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Outline map
Boundary of Cardiff North in Wales.
Preserved county South Glamorgan
Population 88,114 (2011 census)[1]
Electorate 67,194 (December 2010)[2]
Current constituency
Created 1950
Member of parliament Anna McMorrin (Labour)
Number of members One
Created from Cardiff Central
Overlaps
Welsh Assembly South Wales Central
European Parliament constituency Wales

Cardiff North (Welsh: Gogledd Caerdydd) is a UK constituency in the city of Cardiff represented since 2017 by Anna McMorrin of the Labour party. Since its 1950 creation it returns one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons of the UK Parliament.[n 1][n 2] The affiliation of the winning candidate for Cardiff North was that of the winning party nationally for the years 1979-2015 – a bellwether seat.

Cardiff North is one of four seats won (held or gained) by a Labour candidate in 2017 from a total of five covering its county. McMorrin's 2017 win was one of 30 net gains of the Labour Party.

The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 8% of the vote since the 14.3% majority won in that year. The seat has changed political allegiance twice since that year.

History

This seat is the residential quarter of Wales' capital, over half of northern Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing, with a higher number of a middle class population than other sections. Historically it has mainly elected Conservative MPs, but with new housing development Welsh Labour has over turned the nominal majority more recently, turning the seat into a national target swing-constituency. By 2004, the Conservatives held a majority of councillors within the district (13, against five Liberal Democrats, three independents and no Labour), but in the following 2005 general election Welsh Labour's Julie Morgan retained the seat but with a reduced majority.

BBC News political editor Nick Robinson profiled the constituency as part of the BBC's build-up to the 2010 general election:[3] saying:

Morgan stood again for Welsh Labour in 2010, whilst the Conservatives chose Jonathan Evans MEP, who had previously been the MP for Brecon and Radnor. Evans won by 194 votes.

In 2015, Labour attempted to take the seat back but new candidate, Craig Williams, took it with a surprising majority of 2,137. Many had expected it to be very close run again. Labour retook the seat in 2017 on a 6.1% swing, producing a majority of 4,174; this was the first time in the seat's history it had voted for a Labour candidate in an election they did not win and the first time it elected an MP who is not a member of the largest party in the House of Commons since October 1974.

Boundaries

1950–1974: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Gabalfa, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1974–1983: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1983–2010: The City of Cardiff wards of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane and St Mellons, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

2010–present: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau and Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

Cardiff city centre was in this constituency from its creation in 1950 until 1983, since when it has been in Cardiff Central.

Members of Parliament

ElectionMember[4][5]Party
1950 David Llewellyn Conservative
1959 Donald Box Conservative
1966 Ted Rowlands Labour
1970 Michael Roberts Conservative
Feb 1974 Ian Grist Conservative
1983 Gwilym Jones Conservative
1997 Julie Morgan Labour
2010 Jonathan Evans Conservative
2015 Craig Williams Conservative
2017 Anna McMorrin Labour

Elections

Elections in the 2010s

General Election 2017: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Anna McMorrin 26,081 50.1 +11.9
Conservative Craig Williams 21,907 42.1 −0.3
Plaid Cymru Steffan Webb 1,738 3.3 −1.2
Liberal Democrat Matt Hemsley 1,714 3.3 −0.5
UKIP Gary Oldfield 582 1.1 −6.6
Majority 4,174 8.0 N/A
Turnout 52,022 77.4 +1.3
Registered electors 67,220
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +6.1
General Election 2015: Cardiff North[6][7][8]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Craig Williams 21,709 42.4 +4.9
Labour Mari Williams 19,572 38.3 +1.2
UKIP Ethan R Wilkinson 3,953 7.7 +5.4
Plaid Cymru Elin Jones 2,301 4.5 +1.2
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Clark 1,953 3.8 −14.5
Green Ruth Osner 1,254 2.5 +1.7
Christian Jeff Green 331 0.6 0.0
Alter Change Shaun Jenkins 78 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,137 4.2 +3.8
Turnout 51,151 76.1 +3.4
Registered electors 37,456
Conservative hold Swing +1.8
General Election 2010: Cardiff North[9][10][11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jonathan Evans 17,860 37.5 +1.0
Labour Julie Morgan 17,666 37.1 −1.9
Liberal Democrat John Dixon 8,724 18.3 −0.4
Plaid Cymru Llywelyn Rhys 1,588 3.3 −0.9
UKIP Lawrence Gwynn 1,130 2.4 +1.2
Green Christopher von Ruhland 362 0.8 +0.8
Christian Derek Thomson 300 0.6 +0.6
Majority 194 0.4 N/A
Turnout 47,630 72.7 +2.2
Registered electors 65,553
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +1.5

Elections in the 2000s

General Election 2005: Cardiff North[12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Julie Morgan 17,707 39.0 −6.9
Conservative Jonathan Morgan 16,561 36.5 +4.9
Liberal Democrat John Dixon 8,483 18.7 +3.4
Plaid Cymru John Rowlands 1,936 4.3 −1.4
UKIP Don Hulston 534 1.2 −0.2
Forward Wales Alison Hobbs 138 0.3 +0.3
Rainbow Dream Ticket Catherine Taylor-Dawson 1 0.0 0.0
Majority 1,146 2.5 -11.8
Turnout 45,360 70.5 +1.5
Registered electors 64,390
Labour hold Swing −5.9
General Election 2001: Cardiff North[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Julie Morgan 19,845 45.9 −4.6
Conservative Alastair Watson 13,680 31.6 −2.0
Liberal Democrat John Dixon 6,631 15.3 +4.4
Plaid Cymru Sion Jobbins 2,471 5.7 +3.2
UKIP Don Hulston 613 1.4 N/A
Majority 6,165 14.3 -2.5
Turnout 43,240 69.0 −11.2
Registered electors 62,634
Labour hold Swing

Elections in the 1990s

General Election 1997: Cardiff North[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Julie Morgan 24,460 50.4 +11.5
Conservative Gwilym Jones 16,334 33.7 −11.5
Liberal Democrat Robyn Rowland 5,294 10.9 −2.7
Plaid Cymru Colin Palfrey 1,201 2.5 +0.6
Referendum Edward J. Litchfield 1,199 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,126 16.8 N/A
Turnout 48,488 80.2 -3.9
Registered electors 60,468
Labour gain from Conservative Swing -11.50
General Election 1992: Cardiff North[15][16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Gwilym Jones 21,547 45.1 −0.1
Labour Julie Morgan 18,578 38.9 +12.2
Liberal Democrat Eve Warlow 6,487 13.6 −12.9
Plaid Cymru Eluned Bush 916. 1.9 +0.4
BNP John Morse 121 0.3 N/A
Natural Law David Palmer 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,969 6.2 −12.4
Turnout 47,735 84.1 +3.1
Registered electors 56,721
Conservative hold Swing −6.2

Elections in the 1980s

General Election 1987: Cardiff North[17]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Gwilym Jones 20,061 45.3 −1.8
Labour Stephen Tarbet 11,827 26.7 +6.7
Social Democratic Anthony Jeremy 11,725 26.5 −4.0
Plaid Cymru Eluned Bush 692 1.5 −0.9
Majority 8,234 18.6 +10.0
Turnout 44,305 81.0 +3.72
Registered electors 54,704
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1983: Cardiff North[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Gwilym Jones 19,433 47.1 -0.21
Social Democratic Anthony Jeremy 12,585 30.5 N/A
Labour Jane Hutt 8,256 20.0 -16.16
Plaid Cymru Dafydd J.L. Huws 974 2.4 -0.58
Majority 6,848 16.60 +5.45
Turnout 41,248 77.28 +=1.58
Registered electors 53,377
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1970s

General Election 1979: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ian Grist 17,181 47.31 +5.38
Labour MD Petrou 13,133 36.16 +0.46
Liberal Mike German 4,921 13.55 -4.27
Plaid Cymru OJ Thomas 1,081 2.98 -1.57
Majority 4,048 11.15 +4.93
Turnout 36,316 75.70 +2.39
Registered electors 47,973
Conservative hold Swing
General Election October 1974: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ian Grist 13,480 41.93 -0.95
Labour J Collins 11,479 35.70 +4.09
Liberal Mike German 5,728 17.82 -3.06
Plaid Cymru P Richards 1,464 4.55 -0.09
Majority 2,001 6.22 -5.05
Turnout 22,151 73.31 -5.27
Registered electors 43,858
Conservative hold Swing
General Election February 1974: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Ian Grist 14,659 42.88 -4.07
Labour J Collins 10,806 31.61 -11.55
Liberal TAD Thomas 7,139 20.88 +15.11
Plaid Cymru P Richards 1,586 4.64 +0.52
Majority 3,853 11.27 +7.48
Turnout 34,190 78.58 +2.00
Registered electors 43,511
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1970: Cardiff North [19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Michael Roberts 21,983 46.95 -2.33
Labour Ted Rowlands 20,207 43.16 -7.56
Liberal Howard M O'Brien 2,701 5.77 N/A
Plaid Cymru Brian Morgan Edwards 1,927 4.12 N/A
Majority 1,776 3.79 N/A
Turnout 46,818 76.58 -2.39
Registered electors 61,057
Conservative gain from Labour Swing

Elections in the 1960s

General Election 1966: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Labour Ted Rowlands 23,669 50.72 +13.48
Conservative Donald Box 22,997 49.28 +4.64
Majority 672 1.44 -5.96
Turnout 46,666 78.97 -1.71
Registered electors 59,092
Labour gain from Conservative Swing
General Election 1964: Cardiff North [20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Donald Box 21,837 44.64 -13.12
Labour John A Reynolds 18,215 37.24 +0.95
Liberal Denis G Rees 7,806 15.96 N/A
Plaid Cymru Emrys Roberts 1,058 2.16 -2.97
Majority 3,622 7.40 -14.07
Turnout 48,916 80.68 -2.26
Registered electors 60,632
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1950s

General Election 1959: Cardiff North [21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Donald Box 28,737 57.76 -1.49
Labour George S Viner 18,054 36.29 -4.46
Plaid Cymru Emrys Roberts 2,553 5.13 N/A
Independent Stanley G Worth 408 0.82 N/A
Majority 10,683 21.47 +2.96
Turnout 49,752 82.94 +2.04
Registered electors 59,986
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1955: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative David Llewellyn 29,409 59.25 +2.70
Labour Leo Abse 20,224 40.75 -2.70
Majority 9,185 18.51 +5.42
Turnout 49,633 80.90 -4.69
Registered electors 61,352
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1951: Cardiff North [22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative David Llewellyn 29,408 56.55 +9.59
Labour Co-op John Evans 22,600 43.45 +2.18
Majority 6,808 13.09 +7.40
Turnout 52,008 85.59 +1.21
Registered electors 60,767
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1950: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative David Llewellyn 23,988 46.96 N/A
Labour William Howlett 21,081 41.27 N/A
Liberal DA Jones 6,017 11.78 N/A
Majority 2,907 5.69 N/A
Turnout 51,086 84.38 N/A
Registered electors 60,543
Conservative win (new seat)

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
  2. ↑ As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

References

  1. ↑ "Cardiff North: Usual Resident Population, 2011". Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
  2. ↑ "Beyond 20/20 WDS – Table view". 2011 Electorate Figures. StatsWales. 1 December 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
  3. ↑ Nick Robinson's Newslog "Taking The Pulse: Cardiff"
  4. ↑ "Cardiff North 1950–". Hansard 1803–2005. UK Parliament. Retrieved 2 February 2015.
  5. ↑ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "C" (part 2)
  6. ↑ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  7. ↑ "Cardiff North result". Election results for Cardiff North. City of Cardiff Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  8. ↑ "Cardiff North Parliamentary constituency". Election 2015. BBC News. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  9. ↑ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  10. ↑ Cardiff North Archived 9 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine. Cardiff County Council – candidates Cardiff North
  11. ↑ Cardiff North BBC Election – Cardiff North
  12. ↑ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  13. ↑ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  14. ↑ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  15. ↑ "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  16. ↑ "Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
  17. ↑ "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  18. ↑ "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  19. ↑ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1970.
  20. ↑ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1964.
  21. ↑ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1959.
  22. ↑ The Times' Guide to the House of Commons. 1951.
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