Bellwether

A bellwether is one that leads or indicates trends; a trendsetter.

The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading the flock of sheep. A shepherd could then note the movements of the flock by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight.

Politics

In politics, the term more often applies in a metaphorical sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.

Australia

In Australian federal elections, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. Following this, the Division of Robertson in NSW became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continually won by party that also won government since the 1983 election. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status in the 2016 election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 until 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

Brazil

In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Norte is where the winning candidate took the lead in the last-round election from 1945 to 2014.[1] Tocantins, since its creation in 1988, always had the winning presidential candidate winning the state lead in votes.

Canada

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015. St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it was created in 1935. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977. In Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

France

Map of bellwethers in France

Since the fifth republic president was elected by popular vote in 1965 up to 2017, five departments have always voted the chosen candidate in the second round: Ardeche, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire. No region has done so in the first round.[2]

Germany

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor more times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural catholic populations, the traditional base of SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972.

Ireland

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,[3] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore.[4] Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election.

Philippines

In the Philippines, the winner of Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973. After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Basilan's streak that started in 1978 is currently the nation's longest.

For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016.

Portugal

In every general election to the National Assembly since the restoration of democracy the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

South Korea

Since the 1987 presidential election, the central province of North Chungcheong was the one in which the most voted candidate for the presidency was the national winner.

Spain

Since democracy was restored in 1977 up to 2015 elections, three provinces have always voted for the winning party (Teruel, Zaragoza and Huesca), as has the Autonomous Community of Aragon, where said provinces are located. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.[5]

Sweden

The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ("As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes") was coined in the early 1970s, but more recently (2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag.[6]

According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.[7][6]

United Kingdom

United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late 1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.

Long running bellwether constituencies

Former bellwether constituencies

Scottish Parliament

The constituencies of Cunninghame North, Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election.

Also, the constituencies of Almond Valley, Dundee City West, Edinburgh Eastern, Glasgow Southside, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies (Livingston, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central) achieved in the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections.

United States

States

The American bellwether states can be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

  • Ohio – 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.6%, slightly "too Republican"), perfect since 1964. Currently the longest perfect streak.
  • Florida – 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (91.3%, slightly "too Republican").
  • Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (89.7%, slightly "too Democratic").
  • Missouri – 3 misses (1956, 2008, 2012) from 1904 on (89.7%, slightly "too Republican"). Was often referred to as the "Missouri bellwether" until 2012, when it voted for Mitt Romney. Donald Trump won Missouri in 2016 by as many as 19 points, which suggests it will likely be less of a bellwether state in future elections.
  • New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (88.9%, slightly "too Democratic"). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in both 2000 and 2016. Additionally these are the only misses in the history of the state of New Mexico since becoming part of the Union.
  • Tennessee – 3 misses (1960, 2008, 2012) from 1928 on (87.0%, slightly "too Republican"). The state has now gone Republican in thirteen of the last 17 elections.

Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2016:[8]

  • Ohio – 29 wins out of 31 elections (93.5%)
  • New Mexico – 24 wins out of 27 elections (88.8%)
  • Illinois – 26 wins out of 31 elections (83.8%)
  • Nevada – 26 wins out of 31 elections (83.8%)

Smallest deviation from the national average

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[9] include:

  • Ohio – 2.2%
  • New Mexico – 2.8%
  • Illinois – 3.6%
  • Missouri – 3.7%
  • Delaware – 3.7%

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until the early 21st century include:

States that were bellwether states a very long time ago include:

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 to 2012 (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day. Also of note, from 1996 through 2012, Ohio has been within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.[13] Due to the Electoral College system, a bellwether of sufficient size is often also a focus of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state that can decide the election one way or the other. As of 2016, Ohio and Florida are seen as the most important swing states and no Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio and the controversial decision in Bush v. Gore ultimately hinged on a recount of Florida, that – had it gone for Gore – would have swung the Electoral College vote.

Iowa has voted for the winning candidate in all but three elections (1976, 1988, and 2000) since 1964.

Counties

To view full bellwether county list, see List of election bellwether counties in the United States.

American bellwether counties include:

Stock market

In the stock market, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is a stock that is believed to be a leading indicator of the direction of a sector, an industry or the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks are often used to determine the direction in which an industry or market is headed in the short term.[31] JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the United States, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, BSE and NSE. [32]

Sociology

In sociology, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends.

Commerce

The quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Category:Brazilian presidential election maps - Wikimedia Commons". commons.wikimedia.org.
  2. ↑ "L'élection présidentielle en France - Politiquemania". www.politiquemania.com.
  3. ↑ Ihaka, James (13 October 2008). "Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011.
  4. ↑ Shepheard, Nicola (7 September 2008). "Street shows swing voters". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011.
  5. ↑ "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies". electionresources.org.
  6. 1 2 "Som Karlstad röstar, röstar Sverige", Statistiska Centralbyrån, 6 March 2006. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  7. ↑ "Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin". Fof.se. Retrieved 2012-03-24.
  8. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (2016). The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President. Ohio University Press. p. 22. Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election.
  9. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (2016). The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President. Ohio University Press. p. 23.
  10. ↑ Sullivan, Robert David. "How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor". America Magazine. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  11. ↑ Everson, David (February 1990). "Illinois as a bellwether: So what?". Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  12. ↑ Shesgreen, Deirdre (24 June 2012). "Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall". USA Today. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  13. ↑ Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
  14. ↑ "Bellwether States and Counties". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2012-03-24.
  15. ↑ David Leip (2013). "Vigo County, IN Extends Bellwether Streak". Retrieved 2015-10-26.
  16. ↑ "Indiana County Is A Presidential Election Oracle". NPR. Retrieved 2012-03-24.
  17. ↑ Anonymous. "FINAL: VIGO COUNTY ELECTION 2008 RESULTS » Election 2008 » News From Terre Haute, Indiana". Tribstar.com. Archived from the original on 2009-02-15. Retrieved 2012-03-24.
  18. ↑ Indiana Secretary of State. "2012 General Election". Retrieved November 7, 2012.
  19. 1 2 3 4 Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections See individual state presidential results county maps. County maps available without a subscription from 1960 – present.
  20. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State. "President Results by County Statewide". Retrieved November 10, 2012.
  21. ↑ "The Ohio county that picks presidents is leaning Trump". BBC. 2016-07-23. Retrieved 2016-07-23.
  22. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State. "President Results by County Statewide". Retrieved November 7, 2012.
  23. ↑ The Political Graveyard; Sargent County, North Dakota
  24. ↑ ‘There Are No Bellwether Counties’
  25. ↑ 1892 ‘Presidential Election of 1892’ (and subsequent elections’ maps)
  26. ↑ Herdt, Timm (3 November 2012). "Ventura County voters are nearly flawless in picking presidential winners". Ventura County Star. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  27. ↑ CHRISTOPHER, LONG, (12 June 2010). "BEXAR COUNTY". www.tshaonline.org.
  28. ↑ Texas Secretary of State. "Office of the Secretary of State 2012 General Election Election Night Returns for BEXAR COUNTY". Retrieved November 7, 2012.
  29. ↑ Reinhard, Beth(June 23, 2012). The Cornerstone. National Journal. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  30. ↑ In Race to 270, It May Come Down to 106 Counties. Associated Press. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  31. ↑ Staff, Investopedia (26 October 2009). "Bellwether Stock". investopedia.com.
  32. ↑ https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/how-tcs-displaced-infosys-as-the-bellwether-of-indias-it-sector-2558319.html
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