Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15

Prior to the 2015 United Kingdom general election, various polling organisations conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.

Opinion polls were conducted gradually from the months after the previous general election held on 6 May 2010, and increased in frequency before the general election which took place on 7 May 2015. Though most opinion polls published are for general election voting intention, some polls shown are for voting intention in separate by-elections.

Polls of individual constituencies are expensive compared to national polling and were previously an infrequent practice in the UK. However, a large number of individual constituency polls have been carried out in this period, most commissioned from independent polling providers by Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer and sponsor. In addition to polls listed in this article, other polling of constituencies has been carried out in private, often by political parties.[1]

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.[2]

Constituency polls

England

Amber Valley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 20152015 result44.0%34.8%3.0%15.9%2.4%–9.2% over Lab
3–12 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00034%35%4%23%3%2%1% over Con
14–20 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00029%41%6%20%2%2%12% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results45,95838.6%37.4%14.4%2.0%–7.6%1.2% over Lab

Bedford

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 20152015 result42.6%40.2%4.2%9.6%3.1%0.3%2.4% over Lab
23–30 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00028%38%14%15%3%2%10% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results45,10238.9%35.9%19.9%2.5%0.9%2.0%3.0% over Lab

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 20152015 result11.8%43.1%34.3%6.3%3.9%0.5%8.7% over Lib
3–13 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00014%35%36%9%5%2%1% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results44,65117.1%29.2%48.4%–1.6%3.7%19.1% over Lab

Berwick-upon-Tweed

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 20152015 result41.1%14.9%28.9%11.2%3.7%0.2%12.2% over Lib
21–28 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00033%16%30%17%3%1%3% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results38,43936.7%13.2%43.7%3.2%–3.2%7% over Con

Birmingham Edgbaston

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results41,29344.8%38.3%2.9%10.1%3.3%3.5%3.4% over Con
31 Jul–11 Aug 2014Ashcroft100148%29%3%12%5%1%19% over Con
12–18 May 2014Ashcroft100044%33%5%13%4%1%11% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results41,57140.6%37.6%15.4%1.8%1.1%3.6%3.1% over Con

Birmingham Yardley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results41,31341.6%14.0%25.6%16.1%1.7%1.0%16.0% over Lab
27–31 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00031%12%34%19%2%1%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results40,85032.2%19.2%39.6%2.9%––7.3% over Lab

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results39,39336.0%44.4%2.4%14.8%2.3%0.1%8.5% over Lab
30 Mar–4 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00037%42%3%15%2%1%5% over Lab
13–18 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00032%35%5%24%3%1%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results40,59136.5%41.8%13.3%4.1%-4.3%5.3% over Lab

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLDUKIPLabOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results47,11651.3%9.0%21.7%13.8%4.1%27.9% over LD
22–24 Nov 2013Survation/Alan Bown50837%11%27%20%5%10% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results46,85251.4%23.5%6.5%14.0%4.5%27.9% over LD

Bolton West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results47,57639.0%40.6%4.0%15.3%-1.1%1.6% over Lab
23–31 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00040%27%8%21%2%2%13% over Con
21–27 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00141%28%10%17%2%1%13% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,57638.5%38.3%17.2%4.0%1.1%0.8%0.2% over Con

Boston and Skegness

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLDUKIPLabGreenIFEBNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results43,33943.8%2.3%33.8%16.5%1.8%0.7%0.3%0.7%10% over UKIP
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00038%5%35%17%3%––2%3% over UKIP
5–9 Sep 2014Survation/Alan Bown34226.2%2.0%45.5%20.8%3.2%1.0%1.0%0.4%19.3% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,12549.4%14.8%9.5%20.6%––5.3%0.4%28.8% over Lab

Bradford East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results41,40646.6%11.3%29.3%9.9%2.1%-0.5%17.1% over LD
1–21 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00045%12%23%15%2%–3%22% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results40,45732.8%26.8%33.7%––4.6%2.0%0.9% over Lab

Brent Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results45,32462.1%20.3%8.4%3.9%4.1%1.2%41.8% over Con
11–22 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00154%13%19%7%5%1%35% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results45,32441.2%11.2%44.2%–1.5%2%3.0% over Lab

Brentford and Isleworth

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
17–26 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00132%45%10%7%4%1%13% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results53,76537.2%33.6%23.7%1.6%1.5%2.4%3.6% over Lab

Brighton Kemptown

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results45,30639.2%40.7%3.0%9.8%7.0%0.4%1.5% over Lab
11–21 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00037%33%6%13%10%1%4% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results42,70534.9%38.0%18.0%3.2%5.5%0.5%3.1% over Lab

Brighton Pavilion

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeGreenLabConLDUKIPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results54,67641.8%27.3%22.8%2.8%5.0%0.4%14.6% over Lab
11–20 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00138% 28%21%5%8%1%10% over Lab
5–12 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00032%33%18%5%9%2%1% over Green
6 May 2010General Election Results51,83431.3%28.9%23.7%13.8%1.8%0.4%2.4% over Lab

Bristol North West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
17-23 April 2015Ashcroft1,00534%43%8%8%6%0%9% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results50,33625.9%38.0%32.5%2.3%1.0%1.3%5.5% over LD

Bristol West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results64,21835.7%15.2%18.8%3.0%26.8%0.4%8.8% over Green
17-23 April 2015Ashcroft1,00138% 14%20%2%25%1%13% over Green
6 May 2010General Election Results55,34727.5%18.4%48.0%1.2%3.8%1.1%20.5% over Lab

Broxtowe

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
26 Jun–4 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00030%39%7%18%4%1%1%9% over Con
8–13 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00030%44%10%13%1%1%1%14% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results52,72739.0%38.3%16.9%2.3%0.8%2.7%–0.7% over Lab

Burnley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
27–30 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00111%38%23%25%2%1%1%13% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results41,84516.6%31.3%35.7%2.2%–9.0%5.2%4.3% over Lab

Bury North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
2-14 October 2014Ashcroft1,00432%41%5%20%2%1%9% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results44,96140.2%35.2%17%2.9%-4.8%5% over Lab

Camborne and Redruth

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenMKOMRLPOthersLead
24–26 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00137%24%13%14%8%––3%13% over Lab
25 Nov 2014Survation/University of Exeter50030.0%22.4%6.3%33.0%6.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%3% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results42,49337.6%16.3%37.4%5.1%1.4%1.8%–0.4%0.2% over LD

Cambridge

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24–28 Mar 2015Ashcroft100017%31%40%3%9%–9% over Lab
3–12 Sep 2014Ashcroft100019%33%32%7%8%1%1% over LD
4–8 Apr 2014ICM/Lord Oakeshott50018%41%28%5%5%2%13% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results50,13025.6%24.3%39.1%2.4%7.6%1.0%13.5% over Con

Cannock Chase

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
16–24 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00238%32%5%21%3%–1%6% over Con
22–27 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00032%27%8%30%2%–1%2% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results45,55933.1%40.1%17.0%3.5%–4.8%1.6%7% over Lab

Carlisle

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
11-16 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00130%41%5%18%3%3%11% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results42,20039.3%37.3%15.6%2.3%1.5%4.1%2.0% over Lab

Carshalton and Wallington

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
29 Oct–6 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00012%23%43%17%3%1%20% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results45,9188.7%36.8%48.3%2.9%0.8%2.4%11.5% over Con

Castle Point

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15–24 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00012%41%2%36%3%5%5% over UKIP
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00216%37%3%36%2%6%1% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results45,02614.7%44.0%9.4%–-31.9%17.0% over Ind

Cheadle

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15–22 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00019%30%34%13%2%3%4% over CON
26 May-1 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00321%29%32%15%2%1%3% over CON
6 May 2010General Election Results52,5129.4%40.8%47.1%2.7%––6.3% over CON

Cheltenham

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
27 Oct-1 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,0007%34%42%11%5%1%8% over CON
6 May 2010General Election Results52,7685.1%41.2%50.5%2.3%–0.99.3% over CON

Chippenham

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
14-20 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00039%14%24%16%6%1%15% over LD
26 May-1 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00035%12%26%19%7%1%9% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results52,38541.0%6.9%45.8%3.4%0.9%2%4.8% over Con

City of Chester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
26 Feb-5 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00045%34%7%10%3%1%11% over Con
13–18 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00037%36%7%15%5%1%1% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results46,85335.1%40.6%19.1%2.6%1.1%1.5%5.5% over Lab

Clacton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results44,20736.7%14.4%44.4%1.8%1.9%-7.8% over Con
9 Oct 2014Clacton by-election Result35,36524.6%11.2%59.7%1.4%2.7%1.2%35.1% over Con
29 Aug–1 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00127%19%48%3%3%<0.5%21% over Con
29 Aug–1 Sep 2014Ashcroft (By-election polling)1,00124%16%56%2%1%1%32% over Con
28–29 Aug 2014Survation (By-election polling)70020%13%64%2%1%<0.5%44% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,12353.0%25.0%–12.9%1.2%7.8%28.0% over Lab

Cleethorpes

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
2-11 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00138%36%6%15%3%1%2% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results44,96642.1%32.6%18.2%7.1%-3.9%9.5% over Lab

Colchester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
4–14 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00017%22%36%18%6%1%14% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results46,13912.3%32.9%48.0%2.9%1.5%2.4%15.1% over Con

Colne Valley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
16–22 April 2015Ashcroft1,00035%37%8%11%6%2%2% over Lab
2–12 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00034%33%9%13%9%1%1% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results55,29626.4%37.0%28.2%2.1%1.6%4.7%8.7% over LD

Corby

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
10–17 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00040%30%5%21%2%2%10% over Con
15 Nov 2012Corby by-election Result35,66548.4%26.6%5.0%14.3%1.1%4.6%21.8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results54,18038.6%42.2%14.5%––4.7%3.6% over Lab

Crewe and Nantwich

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDOthersLead
2–9 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00038%41%13%4%1%3% over Con
22–24 Nov 2013Survation/Alan Bown50033%46%11%6%5%13% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results51,08445.8%34.0%2.8%15.0%2.3%11.8% over Lab

Croydon Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenOthersLead
26-30 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00344%40%10%2%3%0%4% over Lab
3–12 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00037%41%13%3%5%1%4% over Con
14–18 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00033%39%19%4%4%1%6% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results49,75739.5%33.5%2.0%13.2%1.2%10.6%6.0% over Lab

Derby North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
28 May-4 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00023%44%17%12%2%2%21% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results45,08031.7%33%28%1.8%–5.4%1.3% over Con

Dewsbury

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15-23 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00030%40%4%18%6%3%10% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results54,00835% 32.2%16.9%-1.6%14.3%2.8% over Lab

Doncaster North

Note: Michael Ashcroft initially published incorrect results for his 18–23 Nov 2014 poll,[3] erroneously showing only a small Labour lead. The corrected poll results are below.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
18–23 Nov 2014Ashcroft, Corrected1,00013%54%4%25%2%1%2%29% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results41,48321.0%47.3%14.9%4.3%–6.8%5.6%26.3% over Con

Dover

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
2-9 April 2015Ashcroft1,00232%40%3%20%4%-8% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results50,38533.5%44%15.8%3.5%-3.2%10.5% over Lab

Dudley North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConUKIPLDOthersLead
20–27 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00137%24%34%3%3%3% over UKIP
28 Apr–4 May 2014Ashcroft1,00040%24%27%4%5%13% over UKIP
22–24 Nov 2013Survation52645%25%23%2%5%20% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results38,60238.7%37.0%8.5%10.5%5.3%1.7% over Con

Dudley South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenLead
7-10 April 2015Ashcroft1,00035%39%3%18%4%4% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results38,16533%43.1%15.7%8.2%-10.1% over Lab

Ealing Central and Acton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
1–6 Dec 2014Ashcroft1,00034%40% 11%6%7%2%6% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,200 38.0% 30.1%27.6%1.6%1.6%1.0%7.9% over Lab

Eastbourne

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
27 Aug-5 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,0007%25%46%18%2%2%21% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results52,1424.8%40.7%47.3%2.5%-4.6%6.6% over Con

Eastleigh

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLDConUKIPLabGreenOthersLead
20–28 Aug 2014Ashcroft53840%25%21%12%2%1%15% over Con
29 May–6 Jun 2014Ashcroft52339%27%22%10%2%0%12% over Con
14–17 Apr 2014Survation/Alan Bown36927.1%28.2%31.6%11.5%1.0%0.6%3.4% over Con
28 Feb 2013Eastleigh by-election Result42,64932.1%25.4%27.8%9.8%–4.9%4.3% over UKIP
22–24 Feb 2013Ashcroft (By-election polling)[4]41633%28%23%12%–4%5% over Con
19–22 Feb 2013Populus/Times (By-election polling)[5]40833%28%25%11%–4%5% over Con
18–22 Feb 2013Survation/Mail on Sunday (By-election polling)40229%33%21%13%–4%4% over LD
6–8 Feb 2013Survation/Mail on Sunday[6]32136%33%16%13%0.3%0.1%3% over Con
4–5 Feb 2013Ashcroft (By-election polling)[7]31431%34%15%19%1%1%3% over LD
2–5 Aug 2010Ashcroft51331%43%–20%–6%12% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results53,65046.5%39.3%3.6%9.6%–1.0%7.2% over Con

Elmet and Rothwell

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
8–13 Dec 2014Ashcroft1,00039%35%6%16%3%1%4% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results55,78942.6%34.5%16.3%2.9%–3.6%8.1% over Lab

Enfield North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
17–25 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00034%44%3%12%3%3%10% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results44,45342.3%38.5%12.2%2.1%1.1%3.9%3.8% over Lab

Erewash

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
3-14 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00330%38%5%22%3%2%8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,64239.5%34.2%17.5%1.8%1.1%2.9%5.3% over Lab

Finchley and Golders Green

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenLead
7-11 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00143%41%6%6%4%2% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,15733.7%46%17%1.7%1.6%12.3% over Lab

Folkestone and Hythe

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLDUKIPLabGreenOthersLead
3–4 Apr 2014Survation/Mail on Sunday52936.4%9.6%32.9%17.8%1.9%1.5%3.5% over UKIP
22–24 Nov 2013Survation/Alan Bown54835%10%28%21%4%2%7% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results52,80049.4%30.3%4.6%10.8%1.2%3.6%19.1% over LD

Gloucester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24 Mar–4 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00140%36%9%12%3%1%4% over Lab
24 Sep–2 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00034%33%12%18%3%0%1% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results50,76439.9%35.2%19.2%3.6%1%1.1%4.8% over Lab

Great Grimsby

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConUKIPLDOthersLead
15–24 Apr 2015Ashcroft100042%24%25%5%4%17% over UKIP
20–27 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00135%20%34%8%4%1% over UKIP
5–11 May 2014Ashcroft1,00138%21%26%10%5%12% over UKIP
18–22 Oct 2013Survation50640%21%23%11%5%17% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results32,95432.7%30.5%6.2%22.4%8.1%2.2% over Con

Great Yarmouth

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenOthersLead
15–24 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00036%34%24%2%4%1%2% over Lab
11–16 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00033%28%32%3%3%1%1% over UKIP
21–27 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00132%31%29%5%2%1%1% over Lab
22–24 Nov 2013Survation/Alan Bown50727%37%30%3%2%7% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results43,05743.1%33.2%4.8%14.4%1.0%3.5%9.9% over Lab

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24 Feb–5 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00037%39%4%15%3%2%2% over Con
24 Sep–3 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00034%35%2%24%4%1%1% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,97941.2%36.6%14.8%6.4%–1.0%4.6% over Lab

Halifax

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
12–18 May 2014Ashcroft1,00043%26%8%18%2%3%17% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,55537.4%34%19.1%1.5%-8%3.4% over Con

Hampstead and Kilburn

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenOthersLead
23 Jul–3 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00030%47%2%13%6%1%17% over Con
21–27 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00330%41%3%19%6%0%11% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Result52,82232.7%32.8%0.8%31.2%1.4%1%0.1% over Con

Harlow

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
2-10 April 2015Ashcroft1,00034%44%3%16%2%1%10% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results53,87833.7%44.9%13.7%3.6%-4.2%11.2% over Lab

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
5-12 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00011%41%24%16%8%0%17% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results53,1346.4%45.7%43.8%2%-2.1%1.9% over LD

Harrow East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00140%44%4%8%3%1%4% over Con
1–7 Dec 2014Ashcroft1,00040%37%6%13%3%0%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results48,00644.7%37.6%14.3%1.9%1.7%–7.1% over Lab

Hastings and Rye

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
17-25 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00140%31%5%19%3%1%9% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results49,81437.1%41.1%15.7%2.8%-3.3%4% over Lab

Hazel Grove

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenLead
4–15 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00015%29%35%17%4%6% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results41,98112.5%33.6%48.8%5.1%–15.2% over Con

Hendon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
18–29 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00134%49%4%9%1%1%15% over Con
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00036%44%7%11%2%1%8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results46,37442.3%42.1%12.4%2.1%1.1%–0.2% over Lab

Heywood and Middleton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
9 Oct 2014Heywood and Middleton by-election Result28,47240.9%12.3%5.1%38.7%3.1%–2.2% over UKIP
30 Sep–4 Oct 2014Ashcroft (By-election polling)1,00047%16%5%28%4%–19% over UKIP
30 Sep 2014Survation/The Sun (By-election polling)55150%13%4%31%3%–19% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results46,12540.1%27.2%22.7%2.6%-7.4%12.9% over Con

High Peak

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
17-23 April 2015Ashcroft1,00038%40%7%10%5%1%2% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results50,33731.6%40.9%21.8%3.4%1.8%0.4%9.3% over Lab

Hornsey and Wood Green

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
3 Mar 2015Liberal Democrats
(fieldwork by Survation)		32515%37%36%4%7%1%1% over LD
3–13 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00014%43%30%3%8%1%13% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results55,04216.7%34.0%46.5%–2.3%0.6%12.5% over Lab

Hove

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results52,21439.9%42.3%3.6%6.3%6.8%1.1%2.4% over Con
1–4 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00237%43%5%5%9%1%6% over Con
17–27 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00034%37%6%11%12%-3% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results49,81936.7%33.0%22.6%2.4%5.2%0.2%3.7% over Lab

Ipswich

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24 Sep-2 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00038%31%6%19%5%1%7% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results46,29134.7%39.1%18.2%2.9%1.7%3.3%4.4% over Lab

Keighley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
20-26 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00037%31%5%23%3%1%6% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,69235.8%41.9%14.8%3.1%-4.4%6.1% over Lab

Kingston and Surbiton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
29 Oct–8 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00030%16%38%10%6%1%8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results57,11136.5%9.3%49.8%2.5%1%0.8%13.3% over Con

Kingswood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
28 Mar–3 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00142%33%5%15%4%1%9% over Lab
3-14 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00134%32%6%23%4%1%2% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results47,90640.4%35.3%16.8%3.2%0.8%3.4%5.1% over Lab

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
26 Jun-4 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00027%41%4%18%10%1%14% over Con
8-13 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00229%43%6%12%9%1%14% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results42,70136.1%35.2%19.1%4.4%–2.7%0.8% over Lab

Lewes

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results50,54038.0%9.9%35.9%10.7%5.5%-2.1% over LD
11-20 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00029%9%37%15%7%2%8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results50,08836.7%5%52%3.4%1.5%1.4%15.3% over Con

Lincoln

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
14-21 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00039%35%6%17%3%1%4% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results45,72135.2%37.5%20.2%2.2%-4.8%2.3% over Lab

Loughborough

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
31 Mar–3 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00045%36%3%12%3%1%9% over Lab
22-25 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00040%37%5%12%3%3%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results52,83841.6%34.5%18.3%1.8%-3.9%7.1% over Lab

Manchester Withington

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
11–21 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00056%7%22%4%10%1%34% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results45,07540.5%11.1%44.6%1.5%1.8%0.4%4.1% over Lab

Mid Dorset and North Poole

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
31 Jul–9 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00038%8%32%19%3%1%6% over LD
12–18 May 2014Ashcroft1,00039%8%32%17%3%1%7% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results46,78844.5%5.9%45.1%4.5%--0.6% over Con

Milton Keynes South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7-10 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00037%39%8%10%4%2%2% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results55,33341.6%32.2%17.7%3.7%1.4%3.3%9.4% over Lab

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
1-4 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00036%42%5%12%5%1%6% over Con
7-11 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00134%37%6%18%4%2%3% over Con
14-20 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00037%39%5%12%3%1%2% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,43641.5%39.5%13.3%4.2%1.4%-2% over Lab

Morley and Outwood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
5–11 May 2014Ashcroft1,00341%24%5%20%2%8%17% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results48,85637.6%35.3%16.8%3.1%-7.2%2.3% over Con

Newark

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPOthersLead
5 Jun 2014Newark by-election Result38,70745.0%17.7%3%25.9%8%19% over UKIP
2–3 Jun 2014Survation67842%22%4%27%5%15% over UKIP
27 May–1 Jun 2014Ashcroft (By-election polling)1,00042%20%6%27%5%15% over UKIP
27–28 May 2014Survation/The Sun60636%27%5%28%5%8% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results51,22853.9%22.3%20.0%3.8%–31.5% over Lab

Newton Abbot

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
5-12 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00013%39%20%20%7%1%19% over LD/UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results48,2837%43%41.9%6.4%1.5%1.1%31.5% over LD

North Cornwall

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24-29 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00236%5%38%14%5%3%2% over Con
12-20 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00436%6%38%13%6%1%2% over Con
15-20 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00033%10%33%20%3%1%Tied
26 May-1 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00131%8%31%24%5%2%Tied
6 May 2010General Election Results46,84441.7%4.2%48.1%4.9%-1.1%6.4% over Con

North Devon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24-26 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00138%8%31%16%6%2%7% over LD
29 Oct-6 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00030%9%29%23%7%2%1% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results51,32136%7.2%47.4%7.2%1.4%2.8%11.4% over Con

North East Cambridgeshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00017%46%7%25%4%1%21% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results52,06417.8%51.6%20%5.4%-5.2%31.6% over LD

North East Somerset

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7-11 April 2015Ashcroft1,00128%44%9%10%8%1%16% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results51,20331.7%41.3%22.3%3.4%1.3%-9.6% over Lab

North Warwickshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
18–28 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00041%30%2%22%2%2%11% over Con
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014Ashcroft1,00143%35%3%15%3%1%8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,26540.1%40.2%11.6%2.8%–0.9%0.1% over Lab

Norwich North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24-30 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00038%36%6%12%8%1%2% over Con
4–12 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00035%34%5%18%10%0%1% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results42,57331.4%40.6%18.3%4.4%2.9%2.4%9.2% over Lab

Norwich South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
11–21 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00033%18%12%15%20%1%13% over Green
6 May 2010General Election Results47,55128.7%22.9%29.4%2.4%14.9%1.7%0.7% over Lab

Nuneaton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
26 Feb-5 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00039%34%4%14%8%–1%5% over Con
24 Sep–3 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00039%36%3%19%2%–1%3% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results44,64636.9%41.5%15.3%––6.3%-4.6% over Lab

Oxford West and Abingdon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
21–28 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00018%38%30%9%4%<0.5%8% over LD
30 May–5 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,00018%36%25%11%8%1%11% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results56,48010.6%42.3%42.0%2.7%2.1%0.3%0.3% over LD

Pendle

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00041%37%8%10%4%1%4% over Lab
8–14 Dec 2014Ashcroft1,00036%33%11%17%2%1%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results45,04538.9%30.9%20.2%3.3%–6.7%8.0% over Lab

Plymouth Moor View

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15–23 Jul 2014Ashcroft50635%26%5%30%2%1%5% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results41,52637.2%33.3%16.9%7.7%1.0%4.0%3.8% over Con

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15–23 Jul 2014Ashcroft50639%26%6%21%8%1%8% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,89431.7%34.3%24.7%6.5%2.1%0.7%2.6% over Lab

Portsmouth South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
29 Oct–6 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00120%30%25%17%6%1%5% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results41,26413.7%33.3%45.9%2.1%1.7%3.4%12.6% over Con

Redcar

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
27 Aug–6 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00044%12%18%23%2%1%21% over UKIP
17–19 Apr 2014ICM/Lord Oakeshott50047%15%15%19%2%2%28% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results41,96332.7%13.8%45.2%4.5%–3.8%12.5% over Lab

Rochester and Strood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15–22 April 2015Ashcroft100036%24%3%33%4%1%3% over UKIP
20 Nov 2014Rochester and Strood by-election Result40,06534.8%16.8%0.9%42.1%4.2%2.2%7.3% over Con
7–10 Nov 2014Ashcroft54336%21%2%35%5%1%1% over UKIP
7–10 Nov 2014Ashcroft (By-election polling)54332%17%2%44%4%[8]1%12% over Con
27–28 Oct 2014Survation1,01233%16%1%48%1.7%2%15% over Con
17–21 Oct 2014ComRes[9]94930%21%3%43%2%1%13% over Con
4 Oct 2014Survation/Mail on Sunday67731%25%2%40%1%0.4%9% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,97149.2%28.5%16.3%–1.5%4.5%20.7% over Lab

Rother Valley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenBNPOthersLead
24–29 Nov 2014Ashcroft48018%40%34%4%3%<0.5%2%6% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results46,76828.4%40.9%5.6%17.3%–7.7%–12.5% over Con

Sheffield Hallam

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
4 May 2015ICM/Guardian150135%12%42%7%3%2%7% over Lab
22–28 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00037%15%36%7%4%1%1% over LD
22–28 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00136%16%34%7%6%1%2% over LD
22–29 Jan 2015Survation/Unite1,01133%22%23%9%12%<0.5%10% over LD
20–22 Nov 2014Ashcroft96230%19%27%[10]13%10%1%3% over LD
29 Apr–4 May 2014ICM/Lord Oakeshott50033%24%23%10%8%1%9% over Con
1–4 Oct 2010Populus/Ashcroft1,00031%28%33%N/AN/A8%2% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Result51,13516.1%23.5%53.4%2.3%1.8%2.7%29.9% over Con

1: These figures represent the results when respondents were presented with named candidates. When asked to think only about the political parties [the methodology used by the Ashcroft polls] the figures showed a small Labour lead.[11]

Solihull

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
31 Jul–10 Aug 2014Ashcroft1,00012%37%28%16%6%1%9% over LD
12–18 May 2014Ashcroft1,00012%37%28%16%6%1%9% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results55,1298.9%42.6%42.9%2.2%–3.5%0.3% over Con

Southampton Itchen

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24 Feb-7 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00035%30%7%20%8%–5% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results44,41236.8%36.3%20.8%4.3%1.4%0.4%0.4% over Con

South Basildon and East Thurrock

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00128%35%3%29%3%1%6% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results44,73531.0%43.9%13.4%5.9%-5.9%12.9% over Lab

South Swindon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
22–28 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00037%36%6%16%4%-1% over Lab
3–12 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00036%35%5%19%4%2%1% over Lab
1–6 Dec 2014Ashcroft50834%34%7%20%4%1%Tied
6 May 2010General Election Results47,11941.8%34.3%17.6%4.3%1.3%0.7%7.5% over Lab

South Thanet

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDOthersLead
22-28 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00034%26%32%3%5%2% over UKIP
22 April 2015Survation/Alan Bown [12]1,05730%26%39%2%3%9% over Con
13-18 March 2015ComRes/Chartwell Political1,00331%29%30%5%5%1% over UKIP
18–20 Feb 2015Survation/Alan Bown [13]1,01127%28%38%2%5%10% over Lab
23–24 Nov 2014Ashcroft1,00333%27%32%4%4%1% over UKIP
11–16 July 2014Ashcroft1,00029%29%33%4%5%4% over Con & Lab
21–27 April 2014Ashcroft1,00032%31%27%7%3%1% over Lab
22–24 Nov 2013Survation51528%35%30%5%2%5% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results45,93348.0%31.4%5.5%15.1%–16.6% over Lab

South West Surrey

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLDUKIPLabGreenOthersLead
4–5 Dec 2014Survation/Unite58757%8%15%11%7%1%42% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results57,25958.7%30.2%2.6%6.0%1.2%1.4%28.5% over LD

St Austell and Newquay

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
15 Mar 2015Ashcroft100232%10%26%20%6%4%6% over LD
6–16 Aug 2014Ashcroft49327%13%26%25%6%3%1% over LD
19–25 May 2014Ashcroft[14]47332% 10%24%25%4%5%7% over UKIP
6 May 2010 General Election Results47,23840.0%7.2%42.7%3.7%–6.4%2.8% over Con

Stevenage

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
8–13 Dec 2014Ashcroft49738%33%7%18%3%0%5% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results44,65133.4%41.4%16.6%4.5%–4.1%8.0% over Lab

Stockton South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015Ashcroft100039%44%3%9%1%3%5% over Con
6–12 Nov 2014Survation/Unite57139.1%36.5%2.8%18.2%3.1%0.2%2.6% over Lab
26 Jun–4 Jul 2014Ashcroft52135%38%4%19%2%2%3% over Con
7–13 Apr 2014Ashcroft51236%43%5%12%0%3%7% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results50,28438.9%38.3%15.1%2.9%–4.8%0.6% over Lab

Stroud

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
11–16 Jul 2014Ashcroft56130%41%6%11%11%<0.5%11% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results57,97340.8%38.6%15.4%2.2%2.7%0.2%2.2% over Lab

Sutton and Cheam

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
6-16 August 2014Ashcroft1,00011%27%45%14%3%0%18% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results48,5087.0%42.4%45.7%2.0%0.5%2.5%3.3% over Con

Thurrock

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results49,96433.7%32.6%31.7%1.3%0.7%1.1% over Lab
17-23 April 2015Ashcroft1,00030%31%35%1%3%4% over Lab
18–26 June 2014Ashcroft1,00228%30%36%2%4%6% over Lab
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014Ashcroft39427%37%29%4%3%8% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results45,82236.8%36.6%7.4%10.7%8.5%0.2% over Lab

Torbay

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results48,0798.7%40.7%33.8%13.6%3.2%0.0%6.9% over LD
12-21 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00011%33%34%17%3%1%1% over Con
27 Aug - 6 Sep 2014Ashcroft1,00115%30%30%21%3%1%Tied
6 May 2010General Election Results49,2106.6%38.7%47.0%5.3%1.0%1.4%8.3% over Con

Twickenham

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenBNPOthersLead
11-16 Apr 2014ICM/Oakeshott50134%23%5%32%4%1%1%2% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results59,72134.1%7.7%1.5%54.4%1.1%1.1%0.2%20.3% over Con

Warwick & Leamington

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
1–6 Dec 2014Ashcroft53438% 34%7%14%7%<0.5%4% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results49,03242.6% 35.4%18.3%1.9%1.4%0.4%7.2% over Lab

Watford

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results56,14943.5%26.0%18.1%9.8%2.4%0.3%17.4% over Lab
11–20 Nov 2014Ashcroft52530%24%28%14%3%0%2% over LD
20–28 Aug 2014Ashcroft52527%29%25%14%4%1%2% over Con
19 May–6 Jun 2014Ashcroft52429%25%24%16%6%0%4% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results55,20834.9%26.7%32.4%2.2%1.6%2.2%2.6% over LD

Weaver Vale

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
14-22 Jul 2014Ashcroft1,00132%41%6%18%2%1%9% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results43,99038.5%36.3%18.6%2.3%0.8%3.4%2.2% over Lab

Wirral West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
24-30 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00043%46%3%5%2%0%3% over Con
3–12 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00037%42%5%10%5%1%5% over Con
22–26 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00038%39%6%12%4%1%1% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results39,37242.5%36.3%16.8%2.3%–2.1%6.2% over Lab

Witney

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLDUKIPLabGreenOthersLead
2–4 Dec 2014Survation/Unite53153%4%19%16%7%1%34% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results57,76958.8%19.4%3.5%13.0%4.1%1.2%39.4% over LD

Worcester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenBNPOthersLead
3–12 Mar 2015Ashcroft1,00238%33%4%15%7%–2%5% over Lab
13–19 Oct 2014Ashcroft1,00234%36%5%17%7%–1%2% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results48,97439.5%33.4%19.4%2.8%1.5%2.5%0.7%6.1% over Lab

Wyre Forest

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenBNPICHCOthersLead
11–20 Nov 2014Ashcroft51832%16%7%27%5%<1%-13%5% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results50,89936.9%14.3%11.9%2.9%–2.2%31.7%–5.2% over ICHC

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeLabUKIPConLDOthersLead
13 Feb 2014Wythenshawe by-election Result23,96155.3%18.0%14.5%4.9%7.3%37.3% over UKIP
3–5 Feb 2014Ashcroft (By-election polling)1,00961%15%14%5%4%46% over UKIP
6 May 2010General Election Results40,75144.1%3.4%25.6%22.3%4.6%18.6% over Con

Northern Ireland

Belfast East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeDUPAPNIUUPPUPTUVSFUKIPGreenSDLPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results39,68249.3%42.8%–––2.1%––0.3%2.8%6.5% over APNI
12–28 Jan 2015LucidTalk82034.4%28.7%14.6%6.5%2.8%1.8%1.6%1.5%0.8%7.5%5.7% over APNI
6 May 2010General Election Results34,48832.8%37.2%21.2%–5.4%2.4%––1.1%–4.4% over DUP

Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results44,2867.7%34.1%1.5%2.5%-53.9%0.3%19.8% over Lab
14–22 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0007%39%1%5%1%47%0%8% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results35,8498.7%58.2%8.1%––23.5%1.5%34.6% over SNP

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results52,20919.8%27.3%1.6%2.5%-48.8%-21.6% over Lab
10–19 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00021%31%2%3%0%42%1%11% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results45,89325.5%47.1%9.3%––18.0%–21.6% over Con

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results55,03836.0%4.9%18.7%2.4%1.1%36.6%0.2%0.6% over Con
13-16 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00130%9%28%3%1%29%0%1% over SNP
6 May 2010General Election Results40,01433.8%10.2%45.4%1.2%–9.2%0.3%11.6% over Con

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results50,6986.3%33.9%1.1%2.1%-56.6%-22.7% over Lab
7–17 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0016%43%1%3%1%46%1%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results41,6358.1%66.6%8.5%––16.8%–49.8% over SNP

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results49,3827.9%30.0%2.2%--59.9%-29.9% over Lab
14–22 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0006%34%2%3%3%52%1%18% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results41,1508.3%57.2%9.5%––23.8%1.2%33.3% over SNP

Dumfries and Galloway

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results55,43229.9%24.7%1.7%2.3%–41.4%–11.5% over Con
19–26 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00230%28%2%4%2%34%0%4% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results52,17331.6%45.9%8.8%1.3%–12.3%–14.3% over Con

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 52,134 39.8% 14.8% 2.7% 2.8% 1.6% 38.3% - 1.5% over SNP
24-29 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00031%17%5%4%2%42%-11% over Con
9-15 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00034%20%4%2%2%36%1%2% over Con
10–19 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00134%18%7%4%2%34%1%Tied
6 May 2010General Election Results45,89238.0%28.9%19.8%1.4%1.1%10.8%–9.1% over Lab

Dundee West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 44,714 8.6% 23.7% 2.4% - 2.7% 61.9% 0.7% 38.2% over Lab
23–30 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0006%25%3%2%5%59%0%34% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results37,1269.3%48.5%11.4%––28.9%1.9%19.6% over SNP

East Dunbartonshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 54,871 8.6% 12.3% 36.3% 1.0% 1.5% 40.3% - 4.0% over LD
10-16 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00012%16%29%1%1%40%0%11% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results47,94815.5%34.1%38.7%1.1%–10.5%-4.6% over Lab

East Renfrewshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPLead
7 May 2015General Election Results56,82521.9%34.0%1.8%1.6%–40.6%6.5% over Lab
24-30 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00020%36%3%1%1%39%3% over Lab
11-16 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00225%31%3%1%1%40%9% over Lab
16–26 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00026%34%2%1%3%33%1% over SNP
6 May 2010General Election Results51,18130.4%50.8%9.2%0.7%–8.9%20.4% over Con

Edinburgh North and Leith

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
14 - 17 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00014%29%6%1%6%43%0%14% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results47,35614.9%37.5%33.8%–2.2%9.6%1.6%3.5% over LD

Edinburgh South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
13 - 17 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00016%34%8%1%4%37%1%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results43,80121.6%34.7%34.0%–2.0%7.7%-0.7% over LD

Edinburgh South West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
11–19 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00019%27%4%2%7%40%0%13% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results45,46224.3%42.8%18.0%–1.9%12.2%0.8%18.6% over Con

Glasgow Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
5–10 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0005%35%3%3%7%45%2%10% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results30,5727.1%52.0%16.4%0.8%2.6%17.5%3.6%34.5% over SNP

Glasgow East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
5–8 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0014%37%1%4%2%51%2%14% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results32,1644.5%61.6%5.0%0.6%–24.7%3.5%36.8% over SNP

Glasgow North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
5–10 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0015%33%4%1%11%45%1%12% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results29,6137.1%44.5%31.3%–3.2%11.9%2.0%13.2% over LD

Glasgow North East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
5–8 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0014%46%1%5%4%39%1%7% over SNP
6 May 2010General Election Results29,4095.3%68.3%7.7%––14.1%4.4%54.2% over SNP

Glasgow North West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7–17 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0007%38%3%2%5%44%1%6% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results35,5829.9%54.1%15.8%–2.5%15.3%2.5%38.3% over LD

Glasgow South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7–16 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0019%33%2%3%3%48%1%15% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results40,09411.5%51.7%11.8%–2.4%20.1%2.5%31.6% over SNP

Glasgow South West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
11-16 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,0036%34%2%3%1%55%1%21% over Lab
7–15 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0004%42%2%5%2%45%1%3% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results31,7816.6%62.5%9.0%––16.3%5.5%46.2% over SNP

Gordon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
22–29 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,00211%14%26%4%1%43%1%17% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results48,77518.7%20.1%36.0%–1.5%22.2%1.4%13.8% over SNP

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
20–29 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,00010%13%21%4%1%50%1%29% over LD
23–26 May 2014ICM/Oakeshott50012%25%16%7%4%32%3%7% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results47,08613.3%22.1%40.7%1.2%1.7%18.7%2.5%18.6% over Lab

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
19–26 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,0007%39%3%3%3%45%0%6% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results45,8029.3%64.5%9.3%1.7%–14.3%0.9%50.2% over SNP

Motherwell and Wishaw

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
14–22 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0005%39%1%3%1%50%1%11% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results39,1239.4%61.1%9.8%––18.2%1.6%42.9% over SNP

North East Fife

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
10-16 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,00016%9%30%4%1%43%1%13% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results40,06421.8%17.1%44.3%2.6%-14.2%-22.6% over Con

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
7 May 2015General Election Results46,2267.6%38.6%2.2%––50.9%0.6%12.3% over Lab
11-16 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,0056%39%1%2%1%50%1%11% over Lab
22–29 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0006%40%2%1%2%48%1%8% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results39,9989.9%59.6%9.5%––18.1%2.9%41.5% over SNP

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
9-15 Apr 2015Ashcroft1,0007%6%33%2%3%48%1%15% over LD
16–26 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,0018%9%35%2%5%40%1%5% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results34,83812.2%15.1%52.6%1.9%2.2%15.1%0.8%37.5% over Lab

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
11–19 Feb 2015Ashcroft1,00125%10%20%3%2%39%0%14% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results45,19530.3%13.6%38.4%0.9%–15.7%1.1%8.1% over Con

West Dunbartonshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeConLabLDUKIPGreenSNPOthersLead
14–22 Jan 2015Ashcroft1,0006%38%1%4%2%47%1%9% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results42,2667.7%61.3%8.1%1.6%–20.1%1.2%41.2% over SNP

Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizePlaidLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
27 Oct–1 Nov 2014Ashcroft5538%15%27%31%17%2%0%4% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results38,8452.5%10.5%36.5%46.2%2.3%0.9%1.1%9.6% over Con

Cardiff Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizePlaidLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
19–22 Sep 2014Ashcroft5429%36%17%24%9%5%<0.5%12% over LD
6 May 2010General Election Results36,1513.4%28.8%21.6%41.4%2.1%1.6%1.0%12.6% over Lab

Cardiff North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizePlaidLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
18–27 Jun 2014Ashcroft1,0007%41%30%6%12%3%1%11% over Con
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014Ashcroft4617%41%34%8%8%1%<0.5%7% over Con
6 May 2010General Election Results47,6303.3%37.1%37.5%18.3%2.4%0.8%0.6%0.4% over Lab

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizePlaidLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
8–13 Dec 2014Ashcroft51516%29%33%4%14%3%1%4% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results40,50710.4%32.7%41.1%12.1%2.8%–0.9%8.5% over Lab

Vale of Glamorgan

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizePlaidLabConLDUKIPGreenOthersLead
2–12 Feb 2015Ashcroft53212%32%38%4%10%3%1%6% over Lab
6 May 2010General Election Results48,6675.5%32.9%41.8%15.2%3.1%0.9%0.5%8.8% over Lab

Multiple constituency polling

Some polls are carried out in specified subsets of marginal constituencies. Most of the polls for Lord Ashcroft were compilations of polls in individual constituencies.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientNo of Seats
surveyed		Incumbents by partySample sizeConLabUKIPLDGreenOthers
1–14 Dec 2014Ashcroft88 Con8,00036% 35%14%6%5%[15]2%
20–29 Nov 2014Ashcroft44 Lab4,00222%37% 33%5%2%[16]1%
15–24 Nov 2014ComRes/ITV News4025 Con, 15 Lab74331%39% 18%7%4%<0.5%
2–27 Oct 2014Ashcroft1212 Con12,00832%35% 23%5%4%1%
10 Sep–3 Oct 2014Ashcroft1111 Con11,00232%38% 18%5%5%1%
18–26 Sep 2014ComRes/ITV News4025 Con, 15 Lab76630%41% 17%6%5%2%
31 Jul–14 Sep 2014Ashcroft55 LibDem5,00015%38% 10%28%6%3%
31 Jul–6 Sep 2014Ashcroft172 Con, 15 LibDem8,90932%13%17%32%4%1%
11 Jul–11 Aug 2014Ashcroft88 Con8,00530%40% 8%17%5%1%
11 Jul–11 Aug 2014Ashcroft44 Lab4,00130%43% 9%13%4%1%
18 Jun–16 Jul 2014Ashcroft1414 Con14,00431%38% 4%21%4%2%
18–25 Jun 2014ComRes/ITV News4025 Con, 15 Lab79531%36% 17%7%6%3%
11–22 Jun 2014Ashcroft44 LD1,96312%47% 10%19%9%2%
11 May–14 Jun 2014Ashcroft176 Con, 11 LibDem8,72833%14%18%28%6%[17]1%
15–20 May 2014ComRes/Independent4025 Con, 15 Lab1,03033% (−4)35% (−2) 17% (+14)8% (−10)4%2%
31 Mar–18 May 2014Ashcroft2614 Con, 12 Lab26,02529%41% 18%8%4%
1 Aug–5 Sep 2013Ashcroft4040 Con12,80930%35% 12%13%10%

Explanatory notes

The Lord Ashcroft polls typically ask two voting intention questions, with the second question asking the respondent to think "specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there".[2] This latter question is reported in the tables above.

Most polling companies are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its disclosure rules; however, Michael Ashcroft, who commissioned many of these polls, is not a BPC member, despite having been invited to join. However, he contracts the conduct of his polls to BPC members.[18]

See also

References and notes

  1. ↑ Patrick Wintour. "Lib Dem polling brings hope of future coalition role". the Guardian.
  2. 1 2 "Introducing the New Statesman Political Index: Lib Dems to win at least 30 seats". newstatesman.com.
  3. ↑ "Ed Miliband and Doncaster North: a correction (and apology) – Lord Ashcroft Polls". lordashcroftpolls.com.
  4. ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  5. ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  6. ↑ Percentage for Greens based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  7. ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Green/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  8. ↑ Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/won't say
  9. ↑ By-election polling
  10. ↑ This poll originally, erroneously, showed a small lead for the LDs: see http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-thanet-south/#more-7536
  11. ↑ Sheffield Hallam Constituency Poll for The Guardian - ICM Media Centre, 4 May 2015
  12. ↑ Candidates named in the poll.
  13. ↑ Candidates named in the poll.
  14. ↑ Share for Greens based on a table that did not further prompt "don't know" and refusers.
  15. ↑ Based on a mean of the (non-aggregated) shares of 3%, 9%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 3% and 7% in the eight constituencies
  16. ↑ Based on non-aggregated shares of 3%, 2%, 2% and 2% in the four constituencies
  17. ↑ Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  18. ↑ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Michael Ashcroft. Retrieved 2015-02-07. "Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Retrieved 2014-05-19.

P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

Notes

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