Economy of Kazakhstan

Economy of Kazakhstan
Astana, capital of Kazakhstan.
Currency Tenge (KZT) = 1 = 0.0031 USD
calendar year
Trade organizations
 EAEU and WTO
Statistics
GDP

Increase$474.3 billion (PPP, 2017)[1]

Increase$218billion (nominal, 2016)[2]
GDP rank 42nd (PPP, 2017)[1]
GDP growth
 1.2% (2015), 1.1% (2016),
4.0% (2017e), 3.7% (2018f) [3]
GDP per capita
 Increase$7,138 (nominal, 2016)[1]
GDP by sector
 agriculture: 4.8%; industry: 34.4%; services: 60.8% (2017 est.)[1]
7.3% (CPI, 2017 est.)
Population below poverty line
 2.7% (2015)
28.8[4] (2008, low)
Labor force
 9.147 million (2017 est.)[5]
Labor force by occupation
 agriculture: 18.1%; industry: 20.4%; services: 61.6% (2017 est.)
Unemployment Decrease5% (2015 est.)[1]
Main industries
 oil, coal, iron ore, manganese, chromite, lead, zinc, copper, titanium, bauxite, gold, silver, phosphates, sulfur, iron and steel; tractors and other agricultural machinery, electric motors, construction materials
36th (2018)[6]
External
Exports Increase$44.11 billion (2017 est.)
Export goods
 oil and oil products 59%, ferrous metals 19%, chemicals 5%, machinery 3%, grain, wool, meat, coal
Main export partners
  China 15.1%
 Russia 12.3%
 France 9.2%
 Germany 7.9%
 Italy 6.7%
 Greece 4.1% (2015)[7]
Imports Increase$31.09 billion (2017 est.)
Import goods
 machinery and equipment, metal products, foodstuffs
Main import partners
  Russia 32.9%
 China 25.9%
 Germany 4.2% (2015)[8]
Decrease$105.5 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Public finances
Decrease12% of GDP (2012 est.)
Revenues $43 billion (2012 est.)
Expenses $48 billion (2012 est.)
Foreign reserves
 Decrease$28 billion (31 December 2012)
Main data source: CIA World Fact Book
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia both absolute and per capita, but the currency has seen a sharp depreciation between 2013 and 2016. It possesses oil reserves as well as minerals and metals. It also has considerable agricultural potential with its vast steppe lands accommodating both livestock and grain production. The mountains in the south are important for apples and walnuts; both species grow wild there. Kazakhstan's industrial sector rests on the extraction and processing of these natural resources.

The breakup of the USSR and the collapse of demand for Kazakhstan's traditional heavy industry products have resulted in a sharp decline of the economy since 1991, with the steepest annual decline occurring in 1994. In 1995-97 the pace of the government program of economic reform and privatization quickened, resulting in a substantial shifting of assets into the private sector. The December 1996 signing of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium agreement to build a new pipeline from western Kazakhstan's Tengiz Field to the Black Sea increases prospects for substantially larger oil exports in several years. Kazakhstan's economy turned downward in 1998 with a 2.5% decline in GDP growth due to slumping oil prices and the August financial crisis in Russia. A bright spot in 1999 was the recovery of international petroleum prices, which, combined with a well-timed tenge devaluation and a bumper grain harvest, pulled the economy out of recession.

Current GDP per capita shrank by 26% in the Nineties.[11] In the 2000s, Kazakhstan's economy grew sharply, aided by increased prices on world markets for Kazakhstan's leading exports—oil, metals and grain. GDP grew 9.6% in 2000, up from 1.7% in 1999. In 2006, extremely high GDP growth had been sustained, and grew by 10.6%.[12] Business with booming Russia and China, as well as neighboring Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) nations have helped to propel this growth. The increased economic growth also led to a turn-around in government finances, with the budget moving from a cash deficit of 3.7% of GDP in 1999 to 0.1% surplus in 2000. The country experienced a slowdown in economic growth from 2014 sparked by falling oil prices and the effects of the Ukrainian crisis[13] The country's currency was devalued by 19% in 2004 and by 22% in 2015.

In 2017, the World Economic Forum compiled its Global Competitiveness Ranking ranking Kazakhstan 57th out of 144 countries.[14] The ranking considers multiple macroeconomic and financial factors, such as market size, GDP, tax rates, infrastructure development, etc.[15] In 2012, the World Economic Forum listed corruption as the biggest problem in doing business in the country,[16] while the World Bank listed Kazakhstan as a corruption hotspot, on a par with Angola, Bolivia, Kenya, Libya and Pakistan.[17]

The World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia, Cyril Muller, visited Astana in January 2017, where he praised the country's progress made during the 25-year partnership with the World Bank. Muller also talked about Kazakhstan's improved positioning in the World Bank's Doing Business Report 2017, where Kazakhstan ranked 35th out of 190 countries worldwide.[18]

Kazakhstan secured 3rd position in the Central and South Asia regional ranking of the 2018 Global Innovation Index (GII) released by World Intellectual Property Organization.[19]

Macro-economic trend

In the 2014 Economic Freedom Index published by The Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC, Kazakhstan has gained 22 points over the past 17 years, which is noted by the authors as among the 20 best improvements recorded by any country.[20] Kazakhstan’s economic freedom score is 69.1, equalling "moderately free". Its overall score has increased by 0.1 point, with significant improvements in investment freedom and government integrity offsetting steep declines in fiscal health and monetary freedom. Kazakhstan is ranked 11th among 43 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and its overall score is above the regional and world averages.[20]

This chart shows trends in the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan at market prices estimated by the International Monetary Fund, with figures in millions of Kazakhstani tenge.[21]

YearGross Domestic ProductUS Dollar ExchangeInflation Index
(2000=100)		Per Capita Income
(as % of USA)
199578,014,20061.11 Tenge643.81
2000102,599,902142.26 Tenge1003.53
2005147,453,000132.88 Tenge1409.01
2017 159,406.93 344.18 Tenge

The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1980–2017. Inflation under 5 % is in green.[22]

Year GDP
(in Bil. US$ PPP)		 GDP per capita
(in US$ PPP)		 GDP growth
(real)		 Inflation rate
(in Percent)		 Unemployment
(in Percent)		 Government debt
(in % of GDP)
1992 122.7 7,196 n/a n/a n/a n/a
1993 Decrease114.0 Decrease6,748 Decrease−9.2 % Negative increase1,662.3 % n/a n/a
1994 Decrease101.8 Decrease6,444 Decrease−12.6 % Negative increase1,402.0 % 10.1 % n/a
1995 Decrease95.4 Decrease6,087 Decrease−8.2 % Negative increase176.3 % Negative increase11.0 % n/a
1996 Increase97.7 Increase6,308 Increase0.5 % Negative increase39.1 % Negative increase13.0 % n/a
1997 Increase101.0 Increase6,651 Increase1.7 % Negative increase17.4 % Steady13.0 % n/a
1998 Decrease100.2 Increase6,698 Decrease−1.9 % Negative increase7.3 % Negative increase13.1 % n/a
1999 Increase104.4 Increase7,009 Increase2.7 % Negative increase8.4 % Negative increase13.5 % n/a
2000 Increase117.3 Increase7,890 Increase9.8 % Negative increase13.3 % Negative increase12.8 % n/a
2001 Increase136.2 Increase9,168 Increase13.5 % Negative increase8.4 % Positive decrease10.4 % n/a
2002 Increase151.8 Increase10,211 Increase9.8 % Negative increase5.9 % Positive decrease9.3 % 17.6 %
2003 Increase169.2 Increase11,318 Increase9.3 % Negative increase6.5 % Positive decrease8.8 % Positive decrease15.0 %
2004 Increase190.6 Increase12,642 Increase9.6 % Negative increase6.9 % Positive decrease8.4 % Positive decrease11.4 %
2005 Increase215.8 Increase14,178 Increase9.7 % Negative increase7.5 % Positive decrease8.1 % Positive decrease8.1 %
2006 Increase246.2 Increase15,991 Increase10.7 % Negative increase8.6 % Positive decrease7.8 % Positive decrease6.7 %
2007 Increase275.3 Increase17,677 Increase8.9 % Negative increase10.8 % Positive decrease7.3 % Positive decrease5.9 %
2008 Increase289.9 Increase18,140 Increase3.3 % Negative increase17.1 % Positive decrease6.6 % Negative increase6.8 %
2009 Increase295.6 Increase18,245 Increase1.2 % Negative increase7.3 % Steady6.6 % Negative increase10.2 %
2010 Increase321.1 Increase19,530 Increase7.3 % Negative increase7.1 % Positive decrease5.8 % Negative increase10.7 %
2011 Increase352.3 Increase21,129 Increase7.5 % Negative increase8.3 % Positive decrease5.4 % Positive decrease10.1 %
2012 Increase376.7 Increase22,278 Increase5.0 % Negative increase5.1 % Positive decrease5.3 % Negative increase12.1 %
2013 Increase405.8 Increase23,644 Increase6.0 % Negative increase5.8 % Positive decrease5.2 % Negative increase12.6 %
2014 Increase430.8 Increase24,734 Increase4.3 % Negative increase6.7 % Positive decrease5.0 % Negative increase14.5 %
2015 Increase440.7 Increase24,940 Increase1.2 % Negative increase6.7 % Steady5.0 % Negative increase21.9 %
2016 Increase451.2 Increase25,167 Increase1.1 % Negative increase14.6 % Steady5.0 % Positive decrease21.0 %
2017 Increase477.6 Increase26,252 Increase4.0 % Negative increase7.4 % Steady5.0 % Negative increase21.2 %

Economic growth and GDP

Kazakhstan's GDP grew 4.1% in real terms during the period from January to September 2014.[23]

Kazakhstan's real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.3% in 2014, the main driving force of the economy in Kazakhstan in 2014 is the consumer sector; the consumption in Kazakhstan is mainly boosted by the retail lending.[24]

According to the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan the Kazakhstan's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2014 was 3.8%.[25]

The Government of Kazakhstan signed a Framework Partnership Agreement with IBRD, IFC, MIGA on May 1, 2014; according to this Agreement the World Bank will allocate $2.5 billion to Kazakhstan, for the diversification of the economy and reaching the sustainable development.[26]

As of 2015, the World Bank classified Kazakhstan as an upper-middle-income country with GDP per capita of nearly US$10.5 thousand.[27]

Foreign direct investment increased 30 percent in 2015 in Kazakhstan’s agricultural industry and 80 percent in the country’s petroleum products sector.[28]

In 2016 Kazakhstan's economy started to recover from the crisis caused by low oil prices and the tenge devaluation. According to the Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan, in nine months of 2016 the GDP growth reached 0.4%. Sectors of economy that experienced the highest growth included construction (6.9%), agriculture (4.9%), and transport sector (4.0%).[29]

Sectors of economy

Primary

Energy

Kazakhstan is the leading country in the world for uranium production volumes with 35% of global production,[30] and it has the world's second biggest uranium reserves after Australia.[31]

Oil and gas

Oil and gas is the leading economic sector. In 2000, Kazakhstan produced 35,252,000 metric tons of oil (700,000 barrels per day), a 17.4% increase over 1999's 30,025,000 tons. It exported 28,883,000 tons of oil in 2000, up 38.8% from 20,813,000 tons in 1999. Production in 2001 has been growing at roughly 20%, on target to meet the government's forecast of 40,100,000 tons of oil (800,000 barrels per day). In 2000, production reached 11.5 km³ of natural gas, up from 8.2 km³ in 1999.

Kazakhstan has the potential to be a world-class oil exporter in the medium term. The landmark foreign investment in Kazakhstan is the TengizChevroil joint venture, owned 50% by ChevronTexaco, 25% by ExxonMobil, 20% by KazMunaiGas of Kazakhstan, and 5% by LukArco of Russia.[32] The Karachaganak natural gas and gas condensate field is being developed by BG, Agip, ChevronTexaco, and Lukoil. The Agip-led Offshore Kazakhstan Consortium has discovered potentially huge Kashagan oil field in the northern Caspian. Kazakhstan's economic future is linked to oil and gas development. GDP growth will depend on the price of oil, as well as the ability to develop new deposits.

Mining

Kazakhstan is a leading producer of many mineral commodities, including salt, uranium, ferrochrome, titanium sponge, cadmium, potassium, magnesium, rhenium, copper, bauxite, gallium and zinc.[33]

Industry

Motor cars

In June 2014 the CKD (Complete Knock-Down) assembly of Toyota Fortuner was launched in Kostanay, Kazakhstan.[34] The expected annual output makes around 3,000 cars: 250 a month.[34]

The Kazakhstan's car industry was developing rapidly in 2014 producing $2 billion worth of products annually.[35] Unfortunately the industry experienced a decline despite high hopes, with sales dwindling to only 46.000 in 2016.[36]

Rail

GE Transportation acquired 50% stake in Lokomotiv Kurastyru Zauyty in a joint venture with Kazakhstan's national railway company Temir Zholy.[37]

Services

Technology

On 22 December 2014 the World Bank approved an $88 million loan that would support Kazakhstan’s efforts to facilitate commercially and socially viable innovation in technology.[38] The Fostering Productive Innovation Project aims to improve the country in areas that are able to foster and support technological innovation.[38]

Retail

According to A.T. Kearney's 2015 Global Retail Development Index, Kazakhstan ranked 13 out of 30.[39] In the 2016th Index, Kazakhstan ranked as the 4th best developing country for retail investments, scoring 56.5 out of 100.[40] Kazakhstan's market attracted large international retailers, such as French retail chains Carrefour and Leroy Merlin, as well as food giants McDonald's and KFC.[41]

Tourism

External trade and investment

Trade

A proportional representation of Kazakhstan's exports.
Kazakh export destinations, 2013.

Sherin Suzhikova, Counselor of Kazakhstan's Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Chao yon-chuan, Secretary-General of the Taiwan External Trade Development Council, signed an agreement on 13 October 2006 in Taipei to improve economic relations through "exchanges of market information and visits by trade professionals." TAITRA has an office in Almaty, Kazakhstan.[42]

In 2006, North Dakota's then Lieutenant Governor Jack Dalrymple led an 18-member delegation of the North Dakota Trade Office representing seven North Dakota companies and Dickinson State University on a trip to Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia. North Dakota exports mostly machinery to Kazakhstan, the eighth largest destination for North Dakotan exports; machinery exports increased from $22,000 to $25 million between 2000 and 2005.[43]

The percentage of high-tech exports (as a share of manufactured exports) from Kazakhstan have grown from just 4.46% in 1995 to 37.17% in 2014. One of the main factors that triggered this growth was the Technology Commercialization Project developed and implemented by the World Bank Group and the Kazakh Government. Through this project, 65 Kazakh tech startups received funding and training helping them get their innovations into markets.[44]

China is Kazakhstan's important trade partner. In late March 2015 the two countries signed 33 deals worth $23.6 billion.[45] The deals cover different industries, such as oil refining, cars, steel.[45]

Foreign direct investment

Kazakhstan is the largest recipient of total and annual foreign direct investment of all CIS countries. The OECD has recognized the strides the government has made in opening the country to international investment and in improving the policy framework for investment as part of their efforts to diversify the economy.[46] In 2017 Kazakhstan was invited by OECD to become Adherent to the OECD Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises.[47]

In June 2014 Kazakhstan's President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, signed into law tax concessions to promote foreign investment, including a 10-year exemption from corporation tax, an 8-year exemption from property tax, and a 10-year freeze on most other taxes.[48] Other measures include a refund on capital investments of up to 30 percent once a production facility is in operation.[48] In order to attract investment, Kazakhstan lowered the tax burden for foreign investors. The corporate income tax rate dropped from 30% to 20%. The government also gradually reduced VAT from 16% in 2006 to 12% in 2009.[49]

As of September 30, 2014, total foreign investment in Kazakhstan reached USD 211.5 billion. Of that total, net foreign Direct Investment constituted USD 129.3 billion, with portfolio and other investments comprising the remaining USD 82.2 billion.[49]

As of July 2015, Kazakhstan attracted $16 billion in the manufacturing industry over the past five years, which is 2.5 times more than over the previous five years.[50] Kazakhstan put into operation four hundred new products, such as car industry, railway engineering, manufacture of basic chemical products, uranium industry, the industry of rare earth metals.[50] The volume of new enterprises amounted to 580 billion tenge.[50]

In June 2015 – June 2016 the total number of enterprises owned by foreign investors in Kazakhstan increased by 2.3 percent and reached 9,000. 8,691 foreign companies operating in the Kazakhstan are small businesses.[51]

As of the beginning of 2016, the World Bank invested over $6.8 billion in Kazakhstan since 1992. These funds were invested in development of roads and social infrastructure, increasing of competitiveness of SME's, education, healthcare, environment protection, etc.[52]

In 2012, Kazakhstan conducted the first review of the OECD investment standards, which resulted in 12 recommendations on how to improve the investment climate of the country. After adopting Law on public - private partnership that extends the use of the mechanism and revising standards of intellectual property protection and the rules of attracting foreign labor, Kazakhstan started a second review of the OECD in 2016.[53]

According to Ministry of Investment and Development of Kazakhstan, as of May 2016, attraction of foreign investment in oil refining increased by 80%, food industry - 30%, in engineering - by 7 times. The Ministry also reported that there were 200 investment projects in country worth more than $40 billion.[54]

In mid-2016 a group of companies led by Chevron announced a $36.8 billion investment in Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field.[55]

In the first quarter of 2016, Kazakhstan attracted $2.7 billion in foreign direct investment. The largest investor in the Kazakh economy is The Netherlands ($66 billion), followed by the United States ($26 billion) and Switzerland ($15 billion).[56] According to the Chairman of Kazakhstan National Bank, a key factor triggering the increased inflow of foreign investment is implementation of the Nurly Zhol state program that provides for the creation of favorable conditions. As of September 2016, foreign investments in the Kazakh economy totaled $5.7 billion, which is 4,8% more than during the same period of the previous year.[57]

Summarizing 2016, Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov noted that Kazakhstan attracted $20 billion of foreign direct investment during the year.[58] The gross inflow of foreign direct investment in 2016 grew by 40% compared to 2015 and surpassed the previous record of 2008. The number of foreign businesses operating in Kazakhstan increased 25% in 2016 compared to 2015.[59] The main recipients of foreign direct investment were the mining industry, geological exploration and processing. The top four investors include the Netherlands, the United States, Switzerland and France.[60]

Kazakhstan introduced a visa-free regime for citizens of EAEU, OECD, Monaco, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, and Singapore starting from 2017. The visa-free entry is expected to increase cooperation with investors and businesses of these countries.[61]

Agriculture is one of Kazakhstan's most important sectors where the country seeks to attract foreign investments to boost the competitiveness of this sector of economy. To that end, in 2017 KazAgro negotiated with the European Investment Bank (EIB) a €200 million loan for a period of 15 years.[62]

Intellectual property

Kazakhstan has legislatively addressed the issues of Legal Regulation of Intellectual Property, patent law, and copyright protections.[63]

Public policy

New Economic Policy "Nurly Zhol"

On November 11, 2014 in his address to the nation for 2015 Nursultan Nazarbayev proclaimed Kazakhstan’s New Economic Policy – The Path to the Future (Nurly Zhol).[64] The new economic policy implies massive state investment in infrastructure over the next several years.[65] In the short term, the program "Nurly Zhol" will apply the anti-crisis measures to overcome the turbulence in the global economy.[66] The long-term measures of the state program of infrastructure development will help to create a strong platform for new growth.[66]

Kazakhstan has identified five priorities for modernization of the state and the economy to maintain competitiveness in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.[67]

Doing business in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan was ranked 36th in the Ease of Doing Business report released by the World Bank Group in 2018. The report's rankings rate ease of regulations for businesses and strength of property rights.

The Heritage Foundation, a Washington DC - based research center, ranked Kazakhstan 41st in its Index of Economic Freedom 2018. Its overall score has increased by 0.1 point, still being only "moderately free" with significant improvements in investment freedom and government integrity offsetting steep declines in fiscal health and monetary freedom. [68]

Kazakhstan aims to boost economy by attracting private investors interested in developing national companies. This is the main goal of privatization that is expected to decrease the share of public property to 15% of GDP. Such companies as Kazakhstan Railways, Samruk-Energo, Kazatomprom, Kaspost, KazMunayGas and Air Astana are expected to be sold through IPO.[69]

Kazakhstan fell from 32nd to the 38th place in the 2018 IMD World Competitiveness ranking. The report evaluates business efficiency, public finance and domestic economy.[70]

Small and medium-sized enterprises

A new program to support small businesses was launched in Kazakhstan in February 2015.[71] 2015 is expected to be a pilot period of the program.[71] During that period the initiative will be focused on three major areas, notably agribusiness, machinery building and production of construction materials, and is to be further extended to other industries.[71]

In May 2015 the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) agreed to provide €41 million for technical cooperation projects, advisory support to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and a Women in Business program.[72]

In 2016 the number of Kazakhstan's telecom start-ups increased by 10% compared to 2015. Around 9,400 small telecom companies are currently registered in the country.[73]

2014 and 2015 developments

The country experienced a slowdown in economic growth from 2014 sparked by falling oil prices and the effects of the Ukrainian crisis[13] The country devalued its currency by 19% in February 2014.[74] Another 22% devaluation occurred in August 2015.[75] Kazakhstan was ranked 54th 2017 Economic Freedom of the World report published by Fraser Institute, but ranks 12 places below on place 66 when adjusted by the Gender Disparity Index, which captures the degree to which women around the world have the same legal rights as men and adjusts the economic freedom score accordingly. This shows a large disadvantage of women in business.[76]

The GDP per capita in current USD in Kazakhstan declined by about 40% between 2013 compared and 2017.[77]

Privatisation 2016 - 2020

In December 2015, Kazakhstan Government approved new privatization plan for 2016 - 2020.[78] It is a large-scale privatization program that continues the privatization of 2014 and includes 60 major state-owned companies.[79] According to Kazakh Finance ministry, the state budget got 6.99 billion tenges ($20.6 million) from the deals reached within the 2014-2016 privatization program as of Sept. 20, 2016. Kazakhstan’s privatization program aims to reduce the state participation in the economy to 15 percent, which is the level set for countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).[80]

Other information

In recent years a trade route has been established between Kazakhstan and the United States. It now makes up 54% of the World's salt imports and exports by volume (350,000 tonnes per year).[81]

See also

  • Yerbolat Dosayev, Minister of National Economy
  • Aset Isekeshev, Minister of Industry and Development
  • Vladimir Shkolnik, Minister of Energy
  • Asylzhan Mamytbekov, Minister of Agriculture

References

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  75. ↑ Kazakhstan's currency plunges, The New York Times, 21 August 2015
  76. ↑ "Economic Freedom of the World: 2017 Annual Report" (PDF). www.fraserinstitute.org.
  77. ↑ "GDPpc in current USD". worldbank.org.
  78. ↑ "New Wave of Privatization in Kazakhstan" (PDF). www.worldfinancereview.com.
  79. ↑ Kynge, James; Farchy, Jack (12 November 2015). "Kazakh privatisation drive shapes up as a hard sell". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2017.
  80. ↑ "Kazakhstan gets over $20M from privatization program". Trend.Az (in Russian). 2016-09-21. Retrieved 2016-10-13.
  81. ↑ "OEC exports". mit.edu.
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