Murcian regional election, 2019

Murcian regional election, 2019
26 May 2019[1]
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Fernando López Miras Diego Conesa Óscar Urralburu
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 3 May 2017 30 September 2017 14 February 2015
Last election 22 seats, 37.4% 13 seats, 23.9% 6 seats, 13.2%
Seats needed 1 10 17
 
Leader Miguel Sánchez
Party Cs
Leader since 17 March 2015
Last election 4 seats, 12.6%
Seats needed 19
Incumbent President

Fernando López Miras
PP

The 2019 Murcian regional election is scheduled to be held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Regional Assembly of the Autonomous Community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.[1]

Overview

Background

In the aftermath of the 2015 election, the People's Party and Citizens signed a confidence and supply agreement which allowed Pedro Antonio Sánchez to be elected as new President of the Region of Murcia.[2][3] As part of the PP–Cs agreement, one of the newly elected Assembly's first initiatives was to increase the proportionality of the regional electoral system by scrapping the sub-provincial constituencies and lowering the required threshold from 5% to 3%.[4]

A political crisis unveiled in the community after Pedro Antonio Sánchez was accused of several corruption offences on 20 February 2017. The scandal involved an ongoing judicial investigation on alleged irregularities in the process of awarding, construction and reception of an auditorium in Puerto Lumbreras, town from which Sánchez had been mayor between 2003 and 2013.[5] While Sánchez had repeatedly assured he would resign right away if he was ever judicially charged for any crimes,[6][7] he refused to do so after learning of his indictment despite Cs calls.[8][9] Subsequently, Cs withdrew its parliamentary support, leaving the PP in minority and threatening to support a censure motion on Sánchez promoted by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and Podemos.[10][11] The PP accused Cs of breaking their agreement and of "playing with fire",[12] with parties hinting at the possibility that a snap election could be eventually called by Sánchez in order to prevent his removal.[13][14]

On 8 March, Cs gave Pedro Antonio Sánchez an ultimatum, demanding him to either tender his resignation or call a snap election before 27 March. Otherwise, Cs would support a censure motion together with PSOE and Podemos.[15] On April 3, the President of Murcia was accused by the judge Eloy Velasco-from the National Audience-of participating in the case known as Trama Púnica (in Spanish), which led to his resignation as President of Murcia on the following day[16] and the withdrawal of the scheluded censure motion presented by PSOE.[17] During his speech, Pedro Antonio Sánchez proposed Fernando López Miras as his successor.[18]

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Region.[19] Voting for the Regional Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[20]

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[lower-alpha 1][21]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the Region of Murcia. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[21][22][23]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[19][21][22][23]

The President of the Region has the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[19]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which will likely contest the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Fernando López Miras
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Social democracy Diego Conesa
We Can (Podemos) Democratic socialism, Left-wing populism Óscar Urralburu
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) Liberalism Miguel Sánchez

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
CEMOP[p 1][p 2][p 3] 2–23 May 2018 817 69.6 25.8
13		 18.9
9		 10.1
5		 31.3
16		 – – 5.6
2		 5.5
SyM Consulting[p 4][p 5] 7–9 Mar 2018 1,100 63.4 32.4
15/16		 26.0
12/13		 10.2
4/5		 18.8
9		 7.1
2/3		 – – 6.4
PP[p 6] 24 Mar 2017 ? ? ?
19/20		 ?
13		 ?
6		 ?
4/5		 ?
2		 – – ?
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 7][p 8] 16–22 Mar 2017 1,000 ? 34.0
16/17		 26.9
13/14		 ?
7/8		 ?
6/7		 – – – 7.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 9][p 10] 27 Feb–1 Mar 2017 600 60.4 39.1
20		 22.9
12		 12.0
6		 12.9
6		 3.6
1		 – – 16.2
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 69.6 46.7
22		 20.3
9		 w.UP 15.7
7		 w.UP 14.5
7		 – 26.4
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 71.1 40.4
20		 20.3
10		 15.2
7		 17.7
8		 3.1
0		 – – 20.1
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 63.6 37.4
22		 23.9
13		 13.2
6		 12.6
4		 4.8
0		 – – 13.5

Notes

  1. ↑ A 2015 legal amendment had seen the five constituencies abolished and replaced by a single multi-member district comprising all the municipalities in the autonomous community. The electoral threshold was also lowered from five to three percent.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Ciudadanos ganaría las elecciones en la Región con el 31,3% de los votos". La Verdad (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
  2. ↑ "Barómetro de Primavera 2018 (Región de Murcia)". CEMOP (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
  3. ↑ "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta CEMOP para Asamblea de Murcia. Mayo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 June 2018.
  4. ↑ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Región de Murcia. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 15 March 2018.
  5. ↑ "REGIÓN DE MURCIA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 March 2018.
  6. ↑ "Un sondeo del PP alerta sobre la pérdida del gobierno de Murcia si hay nuevas elecciones". El Independiente (in Spanish). 24 March 2017.
  7. ↑ "Tovar se apoya en una encuesta del PSOE para mantener el órdago al presidente". La Verdad (in Spanish). 2 April 2017.
  8. ↑ "REGIÓN DE MURCIA, Marzo 2017. Sondeo Celeste-Tel". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 April 2017.
  9. ↑ "El PP de Murcia ganaría pero necesitaría a Cs". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 March 2017.
  10. ↑ "REGIÓN DE MURCIA, Marzo 2017. Sondeo NC Report". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 March 2017.
Other
  1. 1 2 "El 26 de mayo de 2019: elecciones europeas, autonómicas y municipales". Telecinco (in Spanish). 20 March 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
  2. ↑ Agencia EFE (18 June 2015). "Ciudadanos da también la presidencia de Murcia al Partido Popular". Público (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  3. ↑ Agencia EFE (30 June 2015). "El 'popular' Pedro Antonio Sánchez, presidente de Murcia con el apoyo de Ciudadanos mientras no esté imputado". El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  4. ↑ Serrano Solana, Pedro (23 July 2015). "La Asamblea Regional de Murcia aprueba por unanimidad la reforma de la Ley Electoral". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Cartagena. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  5. ↑ Vadillo, Virginia (20 February 2017). "El presidente de Murcia declarará como imputado el próximo 6 de marzo". El País (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  6. ↑ Serrano, Pedro (24 June 2015). "Pedro Antonio Sánchez: "Si me imputan por delitos de corrupción política, me iré"". eldiario.es (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  7. ↑ Europa Press (16 February 2017). "El presidente de Murcia asegura que dimitirá si es imputado". EcoDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  8. ↑ Piña, Raúl (20 February 2017). "Ciudadanos exige la dimisión inmediata del presidente de Murcia tras ser imputado". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  9. ↑ antena3.com (3 March 2017). "Pedro Antonio Sánchez se niega a dimitir: "La oposición se está cogiendo a mi cuello como su última tabla de salvación"". Antena 3 Noticias (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  10. ↑ Vadillo, Virginia; Mateo, Juan José; Casqueiro, Javier (2 March 2017). "Ciudadanos retira su apoyo al PP de Murcia tras la imputación del presidente autonómico". El País (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  11. ↑ Piña, Raúl (3 March 2017). "La crisis de Murcia amenaza el pacto entre Albert Rivera y Mariano Rajoy". El Mundo (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  12. ↑ Europa Press (2 March 2017). "El presidente de Murcia advierte a Cs que está "jugando con fuego" si se deja "arrastrar" por Podemos y PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  13. ↑ Agencia EFE (1 March 2017). "Ciudadanos baraja alternativas en Murcia sin descartar ya las elecciones anticipadas". ABC (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  14. ↑ Esteban, Paloma (3 March 2017). "C's cerca al presidente de Murcia y se debate entre la moción de censura y las elecciones". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  15. ↑ Pardo, Belén; Martín, Patricia (8 March 2017). "C's da 19 días al presidente de Murcia para que dimita o convoque elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Murcia. Retrieved 9 March 2017.
  16. ↑ "Dimite el presidente de Murcia Pedro Antonio Sánchez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 4 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
  17. ↑ "El PSOE retira la moción de censura en Murcia tras la dimisión de Sánchez". Público. 4 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
  18. ↑ "Sánchez dimite y propone a López Miras como su sucesor". La Verdad. 4 April 2017. Retrieved 4 April 2017.
  19. 1 2 3 "Statute of Autonomy for the Region of Murcia of 1982". Organic Law No. 4 of 9 June 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  20. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  21. 1 2 3 "Region of Murcia Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 24 February 1987. Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  22. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  23. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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