Next Valencian regional election

Next Valencian regional election
No later than 23 June 2019
(scheduled for 26 May 2019)[1]
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Isabel Bonig Ximo Puig Mònica Oltra
Party PP PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 28 July 2015 31 March 2012 31 January 2015
Leader's seat Castellón Castellón Valencia
Last election 31 seats, 26.6% 23 seats, 20.6% 19 seats, 18.5%
Seats needed 19 27 31
 
Leader Carmen Sánchez Antonio Estañ
Party Cs Podemos/Podem
Leader since 24 April 2017 21 May 2017
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia
Last election 13 seats, 12.5% 13 seats, 11.4%
Seats needed 37 37
Incumbent President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 June 2019, to elect the 10th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election. As per convention, the election is scheduled to be held on 26 May 2019, simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.[1]

The election will be held after the first regional left-wing government in two decades came to power as a result of the 2015 election, where the People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV) suffered a spectacular collapse of popular support.

Overview

Background

The 2015 regional election had resulted in the People's Party of the Valencian Community's (PPCV) expulsion from the regional government after a 20-year uninterrupted rule. Amid a string of corruption scandals that kept shocking the party and brought down many of its historical leaders and icons, apparently involved in the scandals, the PP found itself leaderless and in a precarious situation.

'Operation Taula', a major police operation in Valencia that took place on 26 January 2016, resulted in the arrest of several former and current high-ranking members from the regional PP branch, as a consequence of the ongoing investigation on the PP's corruption in the region during its time in government.[2][3] Judicial investigation also pointed to former long-time Mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá as a participant in the scandal; her arrest or imputation only being prevented by the fact she had legal protection as an incumbent senator.[4] A few days later, on 1 February, all PP city councillors in the city of Valencia were charged for a possible money laundering offense, including new local party leader Alfonso Novo, as well as most members of Barberá's late government.[5]

Voices within the Valencian PP pointed to the party's refoundation in the region as a regionalist party, in order to try to distance itself as much as possible from the PPCV's past. Interim party leader Isabel Bonig called for an extraordinary party congress to be held to rethink the structure and future of the party in the Valencian Community, emphazising its Valencian roots.[6]

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[7] Voting for the Corts is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Valencians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[8]

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations on the condition that the seat to population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other.[7][9]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[9][10][11]

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election Decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Community, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 24 May 2019. The election Decree shall be published no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 23 June 2019.[7][9][10][11]

The President of the Government has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[7]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 50 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 1] 21–28 Sep 2018 900 ? 21.5
22		 30.0
33		 17.5
18		 18.2
19		 w.UP w.UP 7.9
7		 8.5
PSPV[p 2] 20 Sep 2018 ? ? 24.0 26.0 20.0 14.0 7.0 – – 2.0
SyM Consulting/Valencia Plaza[p 3] 1–3 Sep 2018 1,492 63 18.8
20/21		 33.5
35/37		 22.0
22/23		 10.7
10/11		 10.0
9/10		 – – 11.5
GfK/Compromís[p 4] 2 May 2018 1,303 ? 16.0–
18.0		 17.0–
19.0		 25.0–
27.0		 24.0–
26.0		 5.0–
7.0		 5.0–
7.0		 – 1.0
Sigma Dos/Las Provincias[p 5][p 6][p 7] 23–25 Apr 2018 1,200 ? 22.0
24/26		 23.1
25/26		 16.4
16/17		 22.2
23/25		 8.7
8		 1.9
0		 – 0.9
SyM Consulting/Valencia Plaza[p 8] 9–12 Apr 2018 1,465 ? 23.5
25/27		 20.6
20/23		 21.4
22		 15.3
16		 8.8
8/9		 6.9
5		 – 2.1
MyWord/Podemos[p 9][p 10] 8–18 Jan 2018 1,200 ? ?
23/24		 ?
24/26		 ?
17/18		 ?
20/23		 ?
11/12		 – – ?
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 11][p 12] 25–28 Sep 2017 750 ? 29.3
30		 26.2
26		 17.0
17		 13.4
13		 6.9
7		 5.9
6		 – 3.1
SyM Consulting/Valencia Plaza[p 13] 31 Aug–2 Sep 2017 1,404 ? 26.7
29/30		 19.7
21/23		 20.8
21		 14.2
15		 11.4
11/12		 3.9
0		 – 5.9
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 14] 6 May 2017 ? ? 33.4
37		 25.4
28		 17.3
18		 7.3
8		 7.8
8		 4.9
0		 – 8.0
Sigma Dos/Las Provincias[p 15][p 16] 24–28 Apr 2017 1,200 ? 28.6
32/33		 23.0
25/27		 14.1
14		 11.5
11/13		 14.4
14/15		 2.4
0		 – 5.6
GfK/Compromís[p 17] 25 Apr 2017 1,255 ? 25.0–
27.0		 16.0–
18.0		 25.0–
27.0		 14.0–
16.0		 9.0–
11.0		 4.0–
6.0		 – Tie
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 18] 20–27 Sep 2016 750 ? 38.3
41		 24.0
25		 15.6
16		 7.6
8		 8.7
9		 3.3
0		 – 14.3
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 72.4 35.4
37		 20.8
21		 w.ALV 15.0
15		 w.ALV w.ALV 25.4
26		 10.0
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 19] 31 May–7 Jun 2016 750 ? 25.8
27		 22.3
23		 22.7
23		 13.3
13		 9.9
9		 5.3
4		 – 3.1
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 74.8 31.3
34		 19.8
22		 w.EEM 15.8
17		 w.EEM 4.2
0		 25.1
26		 6.2
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 20] 28 Sep–2 Oct 2015 1,100 ? 25.7
27		 24.6
26		 19.6
21		 16.1
17		 7.5
8		 3.1
0		 – 1.1
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 69.6 26.6
31		 20.6
23		 18.4
19		 12.5
13		 11.4
13		 4.3
0		 – 6.0

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Encuesta de intención de voto en la C. Valenciana: Mayoría de PSPV y Compromís". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2018.
  2. ↑ "Una encuesta del PSPV lo sitúa como primera fuerza valenciana 27 años después". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 20 September 2018.
  3. ↑ "El PSPV (por ahora) se sale". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 15 September 2018.
  4. ↑ "Una encuesta del Bloc sitúa a Compromís como primera fuerza igualada con Ciudadanos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 2 May 2018.
  5. ↑ "Ciudadanos podría gobernar con el PSPV y desbancar al tripartito". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 6 May 2018.
  6. ↑ "Estimación de lo que votarían los valencianos". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 6 May 2018.
  7. ↑ "COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SigmaDos para Las Provincias. Abril 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 May 2018.
  8. ↑ "Sondeo: EUPV entra en Les Corts y refuerza una mayoría de izquierdas... liderada por Oltra". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 22 April 2018.
  9. ↑ "Sondeo de Podem: el Botànic resiste ante el ascenso de Ciudadanos y la debacle del PP". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 8 April 2018.
  10. ↑ "COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo MyWord para Podemos. Enero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 April 2018.
  11. ↑ "La izquierda aumenta ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2017.
  12. ↑ "El PSPV abre brecha con Compromís y EU regresa a Les Corts ante el desplome de Podemos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 9 October 2017.
  13. ↑ "Encuesta VP: el bloque de izquierdas mantiene su mayoría y Compromís iguala al PSPV". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 11 September 2017.
  14. ↑ "El Govern del Botànic resiste". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 6 May 2017.
  15. ↑ "Fuerte bajada de Compromís, pero el tripartito resiste". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 7 May 2017.
  16. ↑ "Puig gana ventaja ante un Compromís con fuerte desgaste". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 7 May 2017.
  17. ↑ "Una encuesta de Compromís le sitúa siete puntos por encima del PSPV y empatado con el PP". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 25 April 2017.
  18. ↑ "El tripartito mantiene la mayoría con solo un escaño más que PP y Ciudadanos". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2016.
  19. ↑ "La izquierda ganaría otra vez con Compromís de primera fuerza si se celebraran autonómicas". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 13 June 2016.
  20. ↑ "La izquierda volvería a ganar mientras el PP sigue cayendo". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 12 October 2015.
Other
  1. 1 2 "El 26 de mayo de 2019: elecciones europeas, autonómicas y municipales". Telecinco (in Spanish). 20 March 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
  2. ↑ "24 arrested in an anti-corruption operation centered in Valencia" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-26.
  3. ↑ "Arrested former PPCV President, Alfonso Rus, in corruption and money laundering charges" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-01-26.
  4. ↑ "Corruption investigation in Valencia points to Rita Barberá" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-26.
  5. ↑ "Judge charges all PP city councillors for money laundering of Barberá's illegal funds" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-02-01.
  6. ↑ "The Valencian PP already plans on its refoundation" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-02-03.
  7. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of the Valencian Community of 1982". Organic Law No. 1 of 1 July 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  8. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  9. 1 2 3 "Valencian Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 31 March 1987. Official Journal of the Valencian Community (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  10. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  11. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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