Next Aragonese regional election

Next Aragonese regional election
No later than 23 June 2019
(scheduled for 26 May 2019)[1]
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon
34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Luis María Beamonte Javier Lambán Nacho Escartín
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 25 March 2017 31 March 2012 5 October 2017
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 21 seats, 27.5% 18 seats, 21.4% 14 seats, 20.6%
Seats needed 13 16 20
 
Leader Arturo Aliaga Susana Gaspar José Luis Soro
Party PAR Cs CHA
Leader since 17 January 2015 14 March 2015 10 February 2012
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 6 seats, 6.9% 5 seats, 9.4% 2 seats, 4.6%
Seats needed 28 29 32
Incumbent President

Javier Lambán
PSOE

The next Aragonese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 June 2019, to elect the 10th Cortes of the Autonomous Community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. As per convention, the election is scheduled to be held on 26 May 2019, simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.[1]

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[2] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[4] Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of 13 seats, with the remaining 28 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations on the condition that the seat to population ratio in the most populated province does not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one.[2][5]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[5][6][7]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election Decree is required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 24 May 2019. The election Decree shall be published no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 23 June 2019.[2][5][6][7]

The President of the Government has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[2]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 34 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 1] 1–2 Oct 2018 1,200 65.2 22.3
16/19		 23.6
17/19		 w.UP 21.4
15/17		 5.7
3		 3.2
1		 w.UP 2.7
0/1		 17.3
11/12		 1.3
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 2][p 3] 11–15 Apr 2018 5,600 64.6 23.8
17/20		 25.1
18/20		 12.7
8/10		 22.1
15/16		 5.9
3		 3.5
1		 4.3
2		 – – 1.3
SyM Consulting[p 4][p 5] 15–18 Mar 2018 1,800 70.4 20.0
16/17		 24.1
18/20		 14.2
8/11		 17.6
10/13		 8.4
6/7		 6.3
2		 4.7
1/2		 – – 4.1
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 6][p 7] 22–27 Nov 2017 2,000 68.9 26.3
19/22		 25.0
19/21		 13.6
9/10		 15.3
11/12		 5.4
3/4		 3.2
1		 5.5
3/4		 – – 1.3
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 69.9 35.8
26		 24.8
18		 w.UP 16.2
11		 w.PP – w.UP 0.3
0		 19.7
12		 11.0
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 72.6 31.3
23		 23.0
17		 18.6
12		 17.2
12		 w.PP w.IU 6.2
3		 0.3
0		 – 8.3
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 66.3 27.5
21		 21.4
18		 20.6
14		 9.4
5		 6.9
6		 4.6
2		 4.2
1		 – – 6.1

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "El PSOE podría ganar las elecciones, pero la izquierda no lograría sumar mayoría absoluta". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 October 2018.
  2. ↑ "El PSOE vencería al PP, pero Ciudadanos decidiría la formación de gobierno en Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2018.
  3. ↑ "ARAGÓN. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta A+M para Heraldo. Abril 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2018.
  4. ↑ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Aragón. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 24 March 2018.
  5. ↑ "ARAGÓN. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 24 March 2018.
  6. ↑ "El empate técnico entre PP y PSOE dejaría muy abiertos los pactos para lograr la investidura en las Cortes". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 3 December 2017.
  7. ↑ "ARAGÓN. Sondeo A+M. Autonómicas. Noviembre 2017". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 December 2017.
Other
  1. 1 2 "El 26 de mayo de 2019: elecciones europeas, autonómicas y municipales". Telecinco (in Spanish). 20 March 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of Aragon of 2007". Organic Law No. 5 of 20 April 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  3. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. 1 2 3 "Autonomous Community of Aragon Electoral Law of 1987". Law No. 2 of 12 February 1987. Official Gazette of Aragon (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  6. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  7. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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