Asturian regional election, 2019

Asturian regional election, 2019
26 May 2019[1]
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Adrián Barbón Mercedes Fernández Emilio León
Party PSOE PP Podemos
Leader since 17 September 2017 14 February 2012 1 April 2015
Leader's seat — Central Central
Last election 14 seats, 26.5% 11 seats, 21.6% 9 seats, 19.1%
Seats needed 9 12 14
 
Leader Gaspar Llamazares Carmen Moriyón Nicanor García
Party IU/IX FAC Cs
Leader since 24 January 2015 29 September 2018 18 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 5 seats, 11.9% 3 seats, 8.2% 3 seats, 7.1%
Seats needed 18 20 20
Incumbent President

Javier Fernández
PSOE

The 2019 Asturian regional election is scheduled to be held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 11th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.[1]

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Principality.[2] Voting for the General Junta is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Asturians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method may result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[4] Seats are allocated to constituencies, which are established by law as follows:

Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[5]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[5][6][7]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[2][5][6][7]

The President of the Principality has the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[2]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which will likely contest the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Social democracy Adrián Barbón
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Mercedes Fernández
We Can (Podemos) Democratic socialism, Left-wing populism Emilio León
United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) Socialism, Communism Gaspar Llamazares
Asturias Forum (FAC) Conservatism, Asturian regionalism Carmen Moriyón
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) Liberalism Nicanor García

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
SyM Consulting[p 1][p 2] 10–12 Mar 2018 1,078 63.2 27.6
13/14		 20.8
10		 16.1
7/8		 14.6
7		 5.9
2		 10.1
4/5		 – 6.8
Asturbarómetro/El Comercio[p 3][p 4] 4 Feb 2018 ? ? 26.6
15		 22.4
12		 14.5
6		 12.1
5		 4.2
1		 15.3
6		 – 4.2
NC Report/AsturiasDiario[p 5] 12–20 May 2017 1,200 49.1 24.1
12		 22.0
11		 19.6
10		 11.0
5		 7.2
3		 9.6
4		 – 2.1
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 63.8 24.9 35.3 w.UP w.UP w.PP 12.6 23.9 10.4
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 63.8 23.3 30.1 21.3 8.4 w.PP 13.6 – 6.8
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 55.8 26.5
14		 21.6
11		 19.1
9		 11.9
5		 8.2
3		 7.1
3		 – 4.9

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Principado de Asturias. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 20 March 2018.
  2. ↑ "ASTURIAS. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 March 2018.
  3. ↑ "Primer sondeo electoral". Asturbarómetro (in Spanish). 4 February 2018.
  4. ↑ "Pronóstico intención de voto elecciones autonómicas de Asturias 2019". Asturbarómetro (in Spanish). 4 February 2018.
  5. ↑ "Encuesta electoral, la intención de voto en Asturias (I)". AsturiasDiario (in Spanish). 28 May 2017.
Other
  1. 1 2 "El 26 de mayo de 2019: elecciones europeas, autonómicas y municipales". Telecinco (in Spanish). 20 March 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 "Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981". Organic Law No. 7 of 30 December 1981. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  3. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. 1 2 3 "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986". Law No. 14 of 26 December 1986. Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  6. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  7. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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