Next Balearic regional election

Next Balearic regional election
No later than 23 June 2019
(scheduled for 26 May 2019)[1]
All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands
30 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Biel Company Francina Armengol Mae de la Concha
Party PP PSIB–PSOE Podemos/Podem
Leader since 26 March 2017 25 February 2012 5 October 2017
Leader's seat Mallorca Mallorca Menorca
Last election 20 seats, 28.5% 14 seats, 18.9% 10 seats, 14.7%
Current seats 19 14 8
Seats needed 11 16 22
 
Leader Miquel Ensenyat Jaume Font Nel Martí
Party Més El Pi MpM
Leader since 9 June 2018 2 November 2012 21 May 2017
Leader's seat Mallorca Mallorca Menorca
Last election 6 seats, 13.8% 3 seats, 7.9% 3 seats, 1.5%
Current seats 6 3 3
Seats needed 24 27 N/A
 
Leader Xavier Pericay Sílvia Tur
Party Cs GxF
Leader since 13 April 2015 10 April 2015
Leader's seat Mallorca Formentera
Last election 2 seats, 6.4% 1 seat, 0.5%
Current seats 2 1
Seats needed 28 N/A
Incumbent President

Francina Armengol
PSIB–PSOE

The next Balearic regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 June 2019, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of the Balearic Islands. All 59 seats in the Parliament will be up for election. As per convention, the election is scheduled to be held on 26 May 2019, simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.[1]

Overview

Background

The previous election saw a left-wing majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands for the first time. After the election, on 30 June 2015, Francina Armengol was elected president, forming a government with the Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB), More for Majorca (Més) and More for Menorca (MpM), with the external support of We Can (Podem) and the representative of People for Formentera (GxF).[2] Xelo Huertas, of Podem, took office as the President of the Parliament, the second authority of the region.[3]

In November 2016, Podem decided to cease two party deputies, including Huertas, for trying to benefit another party member's personal interests.[4] On 25 January 2017, Huertas resigned from being President of the Parliament, although she continued in the Mixed Group as an independent deputy, along with Montse Seijas, the other expelled Podem deputy.[5] The parties of the pact, with some disputes, agreed to vote for Podem deputy Baltasar Picornell to become the next President of the Parliament on 14 February 2017.[6]

In March 2017, a fraudulent contract to the campaign manager of Més made by the Vice President of the Government, Gabriel Barceló, appeared in the media.[7] This fact created a crisis in the Government and ended up with the resignation of the Regional Minister of Transparency, Ruth Mateu, and the withdrawal of her party, MpM, from the Government,[8] although remaining as an outer supporter.[9]

In June 2017, the People's Party (PP) member Álvaro Gijón resigned from the party but continued as a deputy in the Mixed Group. The cause was a fraudulent contract for a municipal company in Palma made by the time Gijón was deputy mayor, also involving part of his family.[10]

In December 2017, Barceló was accused of accepting a personal travel as a gift. This fact, along with controversies and internal disputes since March, made him resign as Vice President and Regional Minister of Tourism.[11][12] Barceló was relieved by Bel Busquets, of Més.[13]

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Balearic Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[14] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Balearic Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Balearic people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[15]

The 59 members of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera. Each constituency is allocated a fixed number of seats: 33 for Mallorca, 13 for Menorca, 12 for Ibiza and 1 for Formentera.[14][16]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[16][17][18]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election Decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 24 May 2019. The election Decree shall be published no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 23 June 2019.[14][16][17][18]

The President of the Government has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Balearic Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a sixty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[14]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which will likely contest the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Biel Company
Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE) Social democracy Francina Armengol
We Can (Podemos/Podem) Democratic socialism, Left-wing populism Mae de la Concha
More for Majorca (Més) Democratic socialism, Left-wing nationalism Miquel Ensenyat
Proposal for the Isles (El Pi) Liberalism, Balearic regionalism Jaume Font
More for Menorca (MpM) Democratic socialism, Left-wing nationalism Nel Martí
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) Liberalism Xavier Pericay
People for Formentera (GxF) Environmentalism, Socialism Sílvia Tur

The main opposition party, the People's Party (PP), held its regional congress in March 2017, electing Biel Company as new party president over the former President of the Balearic Islands José Ramón Bauzá, who had resigned as the PP leader after the 2015 election.[19]

In May 2017, More for Minorca (MpM) was transformed into a party, electing Nel Martí as its coordinator.[20] In October 2017, Mae de la Concha was elected as the new regional Secretary General of We Can (Podem), replacing former leader Alberto Jarabo.[21] In June 2018, Miquel Ensenyat won More for Majorca (Més) primaries to become its candidate.[22]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 30 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout El Pi GxF Lead
IBES/Última Hora[p 1][p 2][p 3] 2–15 Jan 2018 1,400 ? 25.0
19/20		 20.0
14/15		 11.0
6/7		 12.0
7		 10.0
4		 13.0
6/7		 3.0
0		 ?
1		 – 5.0
IBES/Última Hora[p 4][p 5][p 6] 8–19 May 2017 1,200 ? 26.0
20		 21.0
13		 13.0
7		 13.0
8		 8.0
4		 11.0
6		 2.0
0		 ?
1		 – 5.0
IBES/Última Hora[p 7][p 8] 19–29 Jul 2016 2,400 ? 27.0
17		 20.0
13		 15.0
9		 14.0
10		 9.0
3		 11.0
6		 2.0
0		 ?
1		 – 7.0
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 60.7 35.1
22		 20.1
12		 w.UPM w.UPM – 14.6
9		 w.UPM – 25.4
16		 9.7
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 63.3 29.1
20		 18.3
11		 7.0
4		 23.1
15		 2.7
0		 14.8
9		 2.4
0		 – – 6.0
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 57.1 28.5
20		 18.9
14		 15.3
9		 14.7
10		 7.9
3		 6.4
2		 2.0
0		 0.5
1		 – 9.1

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "El Pacte ve peligrar su mayoría en 2019 por el ascenso de C's y PI". Última Hora (in Spanish). 28 January 2018.
  2. ↑ "PP y PSOE se mantienen y Ciudadanos le arrebata un diputado a Podemos en Ibiza". Periódico de Ibiza (in Spanish). 27 January 2018.
  3. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES. Sondeo IBES. Autonómicas. Enero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 January 2018.
  4. ↑ "La izquierda pierde la mayoría absoluta en el Parlament y el PP ganaría un escaño en Ibiza". Periódico de Ibiza (in Spanish). 3 June 2017.
  5. ↑ "Los partidos de Balears, entre la prudencia y el entusiasmo por la encuesta electoral". Periódico de Ibiza (in Spanish). 4 June 2017.
  6. ↑ "Intención de voto en Baleares junio17". IBES (in Spanish). 5 June 2017.
  7. ↑ "El PP balear pierde aún más a costa de C's y la izquierda vuelve a ganar". Última Hora (in Spanish). 7 August 2016.
  8. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES, Julio 2016. Sondeo IBES". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 August 2016.
Other
  1. 1 2 "El 26 de mayo de 2019: elecciones europeas, autonómicas y municipales". Telecinco (in Spanish). 20 March 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
  2. ↑ "Francina Armengol toma posesión como primera presidenta del Govern balear". El Diario (in Spanish). 2 July 2015. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  3. ↑ "Xelo Huertas, de Podemos, elegida presidenta del Parlament balear". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 18 June 2015. Retrieved 17 November 2017.
  4. ↑ "Podemos suspende de militancia a Huertas y Bachiller por beneficiar al laboratorio del científico". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 7 November 2016. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  5. ↑ "Huertas y Seijas ya están en el Grupo Mixto "con ganas de guerra"". Periódico de Ibiza (in Spanish). 27 January 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  6. ↑ "Balti Picornell, nuevo presidente del Parlament balear". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 February 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  7. ↑ "Fuerte malestar en Més al enterarse del contrato de Barceló a su jefe de campaña". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 28 March 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  8. ↑ "MÉS per Menorca decide salir del Govern". Última Hora (in Spanish). 31 March 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  9. ↑ "Més per Menorca asegura que "no dejará en minoría al Govern balear"". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 28 March 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  10. ↑ "Álvaro Gijón se da de baja en el PP pero seguirá de diputado". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 June 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  11. ↑ "Barceló cae tras perder el apoyo de Més y de Armengol por sus vacaciones pagadas al Caribe". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 13 December 2017. Retrieved 13 December 2017.
  12. ↑ "Una crisi MÉS". Ara Balears (in Catalan). 13 December 2017. Retrieved 13 December 2017.
  13. ↑ "Bel Busquets jura el cargo y releva a Biel Barceló en la vicepresidencia del Govern". Ara Balears (in Catalan). 18 December 2017. Retrieved 21 December 2017.
  14. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of the Balearic Islands of 2007". Organic Law No. 1 of 28 February 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 September 2017.
  15. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  16. 1 2 3 "Balearic Islands Autonomous Community Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 8 of 26 November 1986. Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 September 2017.
  17. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  18. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  19. ↑ "Biel Company, nuevo presidente del PP balear". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 27 March 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  20. ↑ "Més per Menorca tria Nel Martí com a coordinador en el seu primer congrés". VilaWeb (in Catalan). 21 May 2017. Retrieved 3 January 2018.
  21. ↑ "Mae de la Concha, secretaria general de Podemos en Baleares". Última Hora (in Spanish). 5 October 2017. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  22. ↑ "Ensenyat barre a Fina Santiago y será el candidato de Més en 2019". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 10 June 2018. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
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