Castilian-Manchegan regional election, 2019

Castilian-Manchegan regional election, 2019
26 May 2019[1]
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Francisco Núñez Emiliano García-Page José García Molina
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 7 October 2018 26 February 2012 1 April 2015
Leader's seat Albacete Toledo Toledo
Last election 16 seats, 37.5% 15 seats, 36.1% 2 seats, 9.7%
Seats needed 1 2 15
Incumbent President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

The 2019 Castilian-Manchegan regional election is scheduled to be held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Cortes of the Autonomous Community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.[1]

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.[2] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method may result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[4] Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of three seats, with the remaining 18 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[2][5]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[5][6][7]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expires four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 26 May 2019.[2][5][6][7]

The President of the Junta of Communities has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats is to be deemed automatically elected.[2]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which will likely contest the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Francisco Núñez
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Social democracy Emiliano García-Page
We Can (Podemos) Democratic socialism, Left-wing populism José García Molina

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 17 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
NC Report/La Razón[p 1] 14–18 May 2018 1,400 68.9 33.3
13/14		 32.9
13/14		 9.9
2		 15.0
4/5		 4.2
0		 – 0.4
SyM Consulting[p 2][p 3] 21–24 Mar 2018 3,200 73.5 32.2
11/14		 35.0
13/17		 9.5
1/2		 14.3
3/4		 3.4
0		 – 2.8
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 4] 1–22 Mar 2018 1,950 ? 28.6
11		 37.2
14/17		 9.0
1/3		 16.8
4/6		 – – 8.6
Noxa/PSOE[p 5][p 6][p 7] 22–26 May 2017 1,000 ? 34.3 37.9 9.0 12.5 2.2 – 3.6
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 71.8 42.7
16		 27.3
9		 w.UP 13.0
4		 w.UP 14.7
4		 15.4
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 75.3 38.1
14		 28.4
11		 13.7
4		 13.8
4		 3.6
0		 – 9.7
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 71.5 37.5
16		 36.1
15		 9.7
2		 8.6
0		 3.1
0		 – 1.4

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Una alianza entre PP y Ciudadanos dejaría a García-Page fuera del Gobierno de Castilla–La Mancha". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 May 2018.
  2. ↑ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Castilla–La Mancha. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 April 2018.
  3. ↑ "Castilla–La Mancha. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 April 2018.
  4. ↑ "García-Page ganaría hoy al PP de Cospedal con 9 puntos de ventaja en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 April 2018.
  5. ↑ "Un sondeo del PSOE da a García-Page cuatro puntos de ventaja sobre Cospedal en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
  6. ↑ "Euforia en el PSOE de CLM tras la encuesta que le da ganador a Page si hoy hubiera elecciones". Noticias Ciudad Real (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
  7. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría hoy las elecciones en Castilla‑La Mancha sacando casi cuatro puntos de ventaja al PP". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 27 July 2017.
Other
  1. 1 2 "El 26 de mayo de 2019: elecciones europeas, autonómicas y municipales". Telecinco (in Spanish). 20 March 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982". Organic Law No. 9 of 10 August 1982. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  3. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. 1 2 3 "Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 5 of 23 December 1986. Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  6. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  7. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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