United States presidential election, 2020
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||
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The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census | |||
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2020 U.S. presidential election |
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Republican Party |
Democratic Party |
Third parties |
Related races |
The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is seeking reelection to a second term. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]
In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This would require a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[2]
The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. However, former presidents Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush (both nonagenarians), having each served a single term as president, are not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.
Demographic trends
The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[3]
A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians/others, and "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[4]
Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing in June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.[5]
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[6] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[7]
Advantage of incumbency
An incumbent president seeking reelection usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the general election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against President Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against President George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.
General election polling
- Trump vs. Avenatti
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Michael Avenatti |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 28% | 20% | 51% |
- Trump vs. Biden
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 31% | 43% | – | 26% |
Politico/Morning Consult[9] | 1,993 | July 26–30, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 37% | 44% | – | 19% |
Public Policy Polling[10] | 679 | June 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 39% | 53% | – | 8% |
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 48% | – | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[12] | 846 | March 23–25, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 56% | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 51% | – | 7% |
CNN/SSRS[14] | 1,005 | January 14–18, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 37% | 59% | 2% | 1% |
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 53% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 862 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 54% | – | 6% |
Politico/Morning Consult[17] | 1,993 | November 9–11, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 35% | 46% | – | 20% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 56% | – | 6% |
Zogby Analytics[19] | 1,514 | October 19–25, 2017 | ± 2.5% | 41% | 50% | – | 9% |
Emerson College[20] | 820 | October 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 51% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 53% | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 51% | – | 11% |
Public Policy Polling[23] | 692 | July 14–17, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 54% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling[24] | 692 | June 9–11, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
Public Policy Polling[25] | 692 | May 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 54% | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling[26] | 648 | April 17–18, 2017 | ± 3.9% | 40% | 54% | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling[27] | 677 | March 27–28, 2017 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 54% | – | 6% |
- Trump vs. Blumenthal
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Richard Blumenthal |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
- Trump vs. Booker
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Cory Booker |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 29% | 27% | 44% |
Public Policy Polling[10] | 679 | June 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 39% | 47% | 15% |
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Public Policy Polling[12] | 846 | March 23–25, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 46% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 862 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 49% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling[23] | 692 | July 14–17, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling[24] | 692 | June 9–11, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 43% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling[25] | 692 | May 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling[26] | 648 | April 17–18, 2017 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 42% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling[27] | 677 | March 27–28, 2017 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
- Trump vs. Bullock
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Steve Bullock |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 28% | 18% | 54% |
- Trump vs. Clinton
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Hillary Clinton |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
- Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Mark Cuban |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[20] | 820 | October 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 36% | 22% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 42% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling[28] | 941 | February 21–22, 2017 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 40% | 19% |
- Trump vs. Cuomo
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Andrew Cuomo |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 30% | 25% | 45% |
- Trump vs. Delaney
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
John Delaney |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 28% | 18% | 53% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
- Trump vs. Franken
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Al Franken |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[25] | 692 | May 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 38% | 46% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling[26] | 648 | April 17–18, 2017 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[27] | 677 | March 27–28, 2017 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
- Trump vs. Gillibrand
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Public Policy Polling[10] | 679 | June 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling[12] | 846 | March 23–25, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
YouGov[29] | 865 | January 9, 2018 | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 862 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 47% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 42% | 18% |
- Trump vs. Harris
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Kamala Harris |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling[10] | 679 | June 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 35% | 26% |
Public Policy Polling[12] | 846 | March 23–25, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 43% | 18% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 43% | 15% |
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 42% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 862 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 46% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 39% | 22% |
Zogby Analytics[30] | 1,300 | August 4–7, 2017 | – | 38% | 41% | 21% |
Public Policy Polling[23] | 692 | July 14–17, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling[24] | 692 | June 9–11, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 42% | 18% |
- Trump vs. Holder
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Eric Holder |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 30% | 24% | 46% |
- Trump vs. Johnson
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Dwayne Johnson |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[25] | 692 | May 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 37% | 42% | 21% |
- Trump vs. Kennedy
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Joe Kennedy III |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 46% | 12% |
- Trump vs. Obama
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Michelle Obama |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
Zogby Analytics[19] | 1,514 | October 19–25, 2017 | ± 2.5% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 51% | 9% |
- Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Bernie Sanders |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 32% | 44% | – | 24% |
Public Policy Polling[10] | 679 | June 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 49% | – | 11% |
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 37% | 48% | – | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[12] | 846 | March 23–25, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 55% | – | 6% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | – | 8% |
CNN/SSRS[14] | 1,005 | January 14–18, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 58% | 3% | 1% |
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 52% | – | 10% |
YouGov[29] | 856 | January 9, 2018 | – | 43% | 48% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 862 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 53% | – | 6% |
Politico/Morning Consult[31] | 2,586 | November 16–19, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 36% | 42% | – | 22% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 53% | – | 9% |
Zogby Analytics[19] | 1,514 | October 19–25, 2017 | ± 2.5% | 40% | 51% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 51% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% |
Public Policy Polling[23] | 692 | July 14–17, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[24] | 692 | June 9–11, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[25] | 692 | May 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[26] | 648 | April 17–18, 2017 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 50% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[27] | 677 | March 27–28, 2017 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
- Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[8] | 1,974 | August 16–18, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 30% | 34% | 36% |
Public Policy Polling[10] | 679 | June 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling[12] | 846 | March 23–25, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 51% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[13] | 687 | February 9–11, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling[32] (for a Warren-aligned PAC) |
620 | January 9–10, 2018 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 862 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 50% | 9% |
Zogby Analytics[19] | 1,514 | October 19–25, 2017 | ± 2.5% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
Emerson College[20] | 820 | October 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Democracy Corps/Greenberg Research[33] | 1,000 | September 30 – October 6, 2017 | – | 42% | 54% | 4% |
Public Policy Polling[21] | 865 | September 22–25, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 887 | August 18–21, 2017 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Zogby Analytics[30] | 1,300 | August 4–7, 2017 | – | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling[23] | 692 | July 14–17, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[24] | 692 | June 9–11, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling[25] | 692 | May 12–14, 2017 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 49% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling[26] | 648 | April 17–18, 2017 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 46% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling[27] | 677 | March 27–28, 2017 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Politico/Morning Consult[34] | 1,791 | February 9–10, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
- Trump vs. Wilson
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Frederica Wilson |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[18] | 572 | October 27–29, 2017 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
- Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Oprah Winfrey |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[11] | 881 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
CNN/SSRS[14] | 1,005 | January 14–18, 2018 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 54% | 6% | 2% |
Quinnipiac University[35] | 1,212 | January 12–16, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling[32] (for a Warren-aligned PAC) |
620 | January 9–10, 2018 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist[36] | 1,092 | January 8–10, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 39% | 50% | – | 11% |
YouGov[29] | 856 | January 9, 2018 | – | 43% | 47% | – | 10% |
Rasmussen Reports[37] | 1,000 | January 8–9, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 48% | – | 14% |
Zogby Analytics[38] | 1,531 | March 27–29, 2017 | ±2.5% | 36% | 46% | – | 18% |
Public Policy Polling[39] | 808 | March 10–12, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 47% | – | 12% |
- Trump vs. Zuckerberg
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Mark Zuckerberg |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[15] | 847 | January 12–15, 2018 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Zogby Analytics[30] | 1,300 | August 4–7, 2017 | – | 40% | 43% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling[23] | 836 | July 14–17, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
- Trump vs. Zuckerberg vs. Scarborough
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Mark Zuckerberg |
Joe Scarborough |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[30] | 1,300 | August 4–7, 2017 | – | 36% | 34% | 18% | 12% |
- Trump vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Democratic candidate |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[9] | 1,993 | July 26–30, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 35% | 48% | – | 17% |
Politico/Morning Consult[40] | 1,990 | May 17–19, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 36% | 44% | – | 20% |
Politico/Morning Consult[41] | 1,993 | March 1–5, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 36% | 44% | – | 19% |
NBC News/Wall Street Journal[42] | 900 | December 13–15, 2017 | ± 3.6% | 36% | 52% | 3% | 9% |
Politico/Morning Consult[31] | 2,586 | November 16–19, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 35% | 44% | – | 21% |
Politico/Morning Consult[17] | 1,993 | November 9–11, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 34% | 48% | – | 18% |
Politico/Morning Consult[43] | 1,990 | October 26–30, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 36% | 46% | – | 18% |
Opinion Savvy[44] | 763 | August 16–17, 2017 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 52% | – | 8% |
Gravis Marketing[45] | 1,917 | July 21–31, 2017 | ± 2.2% | 39% | 48% | – | 13% |
Politico/Morning Consult[34] | 1,791 | February 9–10, 2017 | ± 2.0% | 35% | 43% | – | 23% |
- Pence vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Mike Pence |
Democratic candidate |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opinion Savvy[44] | 762 | August 16–17, 2017 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
- Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat[note 1]
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Republican candidate |
Democratic candidate |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Politico/Morning Consult[40] | 1,990 | May 17–19, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 27% | 40% | 33% |
Politico/Morning Consult[41] | 1,993 | March 1–5, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 28% | 42% | 31% |
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 56% | 11% |
Trump vs. Booker
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Cory Booker |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 39% | 26% |
Trump vs. J. Brown
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Jerry Brown |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 54% | 11% |
Trump vs. S. Brown
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Sherrod Brown |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 36% | 29% |
Trump vs. Garcetti
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Eric Garcetti |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 49% | 17% |
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 46% | 21% |
Trump vs. Gillibrand
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 47% | 19% |
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 46% | 22% |
Trump vs. Hanks
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Tom Hanks |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 51% | 15% |
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 31% | 56% | 14% |
Trump vs. Harris
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Kamala Harris |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 54% | 12% |
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 33% | 53% | 13% |
Trump vs. Holder
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Eric Holder |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 38% | 26% |
Trump vs. Landrieu
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Mitch Landrieu |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 36% | 29% |
Trump vs. Obama
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Michelle Obama |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 57% | 8% |
Trump vs. Patrick
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Deval Patrick |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 53% | 14% |
Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Oprah Winfrey |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 35% | 52% | 13% |
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 56% | 12% |
Trump vs. Zuckerberg
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Mark Zuckerberg |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[46] | 882 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
SurveyUSA[47] | 909 | January 7–9, 2018 | ± 3.3% | 31% | 50% | 19% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 828 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 48% | 14% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 603 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 17% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 402 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 41% | 13% |
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Epic-MRA[49] | 600 | April 28–30, 2018 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 52% | 9% |
Zogby Analytics[50] | – | September 2017 | – | 35% | 52% | 13% |
Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Bernie Sanders |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[50] | – | September 2017 | – | 36% | 54% | 10% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[50] | – | September 2017 | – | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Zogby Analytics[48] | 803 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 3.5% | 35% | 51% | 14% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 604 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 403 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 39% | 17% |
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[51] | 1,365 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 39% | 53% | 8% |
Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Bernie Sanders |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[51] | 1,365 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 5% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[51] | 1,365 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | 9% |
Kasich vs. Biden
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | John Kasich |
Joe Biden |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[51] | 1,365 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 8% |
Kasich vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | John Kasich |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[51] | 1,365 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College[52] | 618 | January 21–25, 2018 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% |
Trump vs. Cooper
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Roy Cooper |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College[52] | 618 | January 21–25, 2018 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 11% | 1% |
Trump vs. Gillibrand
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College[52][note 2] | 618 | January 21–25, 2018 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 36% | 18% | 1% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College[52] | 618 | January 21–25, 2018 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% | 1% |
Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Oprah Winfrey |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College[52] | 618 | January 21–25, 2018 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 12% | 2% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 403 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 36% | 17% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 805 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 813 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 46% | 16% |
Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Mark Cuban |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling[53] | – | December 28, 2017 | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 401 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.9% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Donald Trump |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics[48] | 603 | August 17–23, 2017 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 48% | 15% |
Nominations
Republican Party
Donald Trump is eligible to run for reelection and intends to do so.[54] His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[55] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[56]
Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party.[57] A poor showing for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections may lead to an influx of ambitious politicians vying to reclaim the nomination from Trump, as Arizona Senator John McCain said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president." Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have all expressed doubts that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[58][59] Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Flake has claimed that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.[60] Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicts that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "[makes] America great again", à la James K. Polk.[61]
Declared major candidates
The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump |
June 14, 1946 (age 72) New York City, New York |
President of the United States since 2017 Candidate for President in 2000 |
New York |
August 19, 2016 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing |
[62] |
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.
- Don Blankenship,[note 3] business executive from West Virginia; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[63]
- Jeff Flake, U.S. Senator from Arizona since 2013; U.S. Representative 2001–2013[64][65]
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland since 2015[66]
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983–2001; candidate for President in 2000 and in 2016[67][68]
- Bill Kristol, Chief of Staff to the Vice President 1989–1993[69]
Convention site
On July 20, 2018, the Republican National Convention chose Charlotte, North Carolina as the site for their 2020 national convention.[70] The convention will be held from August 24 until August 27, 2020.[71]
Endorsements
- Donald Trump
Brad Thor (withdrawn) |
---|
|
Primary election polling
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Bob Corker |
Tom Cotton |
Ted Cruz |
Jeff Flake |
Trey Gowdy |
Nikki Haley |
John Kasich |
Mike Pence |
Colin Powell |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Paul Ryan |
Ben Sasse |
Donald Trump |
Oprah Winfrey |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harvard-Harris[77] | 460 | June 24–25, 2018 | – | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85% | – | – | – |
CNN/SRSS[78] | 458 | March 22–25, 2018 | ± 5.4% | – | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | – | 1% | – | 75% | 1% | 7% | 11% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[79] | 1,313 | December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 | ± 2.0% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 75% | – | 25% | – |
Emerson College[80] | 198 | January 8–11, 2018 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | 18% | 14% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps[81] | 370 | January 8–11, 2018 | – | – | – | 4% | 1% | – | 4% | 3% | 11% | – | 5% | 5% | – | – | 62% | – | 0% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling[16] | 284 | December 11–12, 2017 | ± 3.3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | 24% | 6% |
– | – | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 64% | – | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | 16% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 74% | – | – | 10% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 19% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | – | 11% | ||||
Public Religion Research Institute[82] | 846 | October 18–30, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | 34% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling[18] | 183 | October 27–29, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 36% | 8% |
– | – | 27% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | – | 16% | ||||
– | – | – | 14% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | – | 16% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | – | – | – | – | 53% | – | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 66% | – | – | 11% | ||||
Public Policy Polling[21] | 268 | September 22–25, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 61% | – | 27% | 12% |
– | – | 15% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 17% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | – | 21% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 18% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 13% | ||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[83] (Trump-aligned) |
1,500 | August 2017 | ± 2.5% | – | 1% | 14% | – | – | – | 10% | – | – | – | – | – | 1% | 50% | – | – | 24% |
Public Policy Polling[22] | 275 | August 18–21, 2017 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 29% | 13% |
– | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | – | 17% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | – | 23% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 11% | ||||
Opinion Savvy[44] | 221 | August 16–17, 2017 | ± 6.6% | – | – | 12% | – | – | – | 15% | 65% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8% |
220 | – | – | – | 8% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | 7% | |||
Marist Poll[84] | 361 | August 8–12, 2017 | ± 5.2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 64% | – | 3% | 10% |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | 33% | – | – | – | – | – | 56% | – | 3% | 8% |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | John Kasich |
Donald Trump |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing[85] | 288 | July 24–29, 2018 | ± 5.8% | 9% | 67% | 25% |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Tom Cotton |
Ted Cruz |
Jeff Flake |
John Kasich |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire[86] | 199 | August 2–19, 2018 | ± 6.9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 56% | 20% | 24% |
Suffolk University[87] | 315 | April 26–30, 2018 | – | – | – | – | 23% | – | – | – | 68% | – | 8% |
– | – | 15% | – | – | – | – | 72% | – | 13% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 23% | 66% | – | 11% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | 63% | – | 9% | ||||
University of New Hampshire[88] | 208 | April 13–22, 2018 | ± 6.8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 55% | 19% | 27% |
– | – | – | 19% | – | – | – | 67% | 0% | 14% | ||||
American Research Group[51] | 420 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 5.0% | – | – | 33% | – | – | – | – | 49% | – | 18% |
– | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | 48% | – | 9% | ||||
– | – | 4% | 34% | – | – | – | 51% | – | 11% | ||||
5% | 7% | 11% | 36% | – | – | – | – | – | 41% | ||||
University of New Hampshire[89] | 157 | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | ± 7.8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 60% | 18% | 23% |
University of New Hampshire[90] | 191 | October 3–15, 2017 | ± 7.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 47% | 23% | 30% |
American Research Group[91] | 600 | August 4–6, 2017 | ± 4.0% | – | – | – | 52% | – | – | – | 40% | – | 8% |
– | – | – | 41% | 27% | – | – | – | – | 32% |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | John Kasich |
Donald Trump |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baldwin Wallace University[92] | 261 | February 28 – March 9, 2018 | ± 6.0% | 27% | 62% | 11% |
Democratic Party
After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[93] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[94][95]
This establishment/progressive divide was reflected in several elections leading up to the 2020 primaries. Most notably in 2017 with the election for DNC Chair between Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison.[96] Perez was elected Chairman, but Ellison was appointed as the Deputy Chair, a largely ceremonial role. In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats are hoping to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politico's Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war."[97] Meanwhile there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.[98][99]
Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates.[100] In the wake of the Me Too movement, several female candidates are expected to enter the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.[101] Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.[102]
The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and senator Sanders; who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.[103]
Declared major candidates
The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Delaney |
April 16, 1963 (age 55) Wood-Ridge, New Jersey |
U.S. Representative from Maryland since 2013 | Maryland |
July 28, 2017 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing |
[104] |
Other declared candidates
These candidates have established campaign websites.
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Boss |
May 20, 1963 (age 55) New Jersey |
Conspiracy theorist Candidate for U.S. Representative from New York in 2018 Candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2013 and 2017 Candidate for Governor of New Jersey in 2009, 2013, and 2017 Candidate for President in 2008, 2012, and 2016 Candidate for U.S. Representative in 2010 and 2016 Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2014 |
New York |
August 5, 2017 (Website) |
Ken Nwadike |
December 29, 1981 (age 36) San Diego, California |
Peace activist, inspirational speaker, video journalist | California |
October 18, 2017 (Website) FEC Filing |
Robby Wells |
April 10, 1968 (age 50) Bartow, Georgia |
Former college football coach Natural Law nominee for U.S. Representative from California in 1996 Candidate for President in 2012 and 2016 |
Georgia |
May 24, 2017 (Website) FEC Filing |
Andrew Yang |
January 13, 1975 (age 43) Schenectady, New York |
Entrepreneur | New York |
November 6, 2017 (Website) FEC Filing |
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.
- Michael Avenatti, attorney and entrepreneur from California[105][106][107]
- Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States 2009–2017; U.S. Senator from Delaware 1973–2009; candidate for President in 1988 and in 2008[108][109][110]
- Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor of New York City 2002–2013[111][112][113][114]
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; Mayor of Newark 2006–2013[115][116][117][118]
- Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana since 2012[119]
- Julian Castro, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 2014–2017; Mayor of San Antonio, Texas 2009–2014[120][121][122][123]
- Oscar De La Hoya, boxing champion[124]
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii since 2013[125]
- Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles, California since 2013[126][127][128][129]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California since 2017[130][131][132]
- John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003–2011[133][134][135]
- Eric Holder, U.S. Attorney General 2009–2015; Acting U.S. Attorney General in 2001[136][137][138]
- Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington since 2013[139]
- John Kerry, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, Democratic nominee in the 2004 U.S. presidential election, and United States Secretary of State from 2013 to 2017[140][141]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon since 2009[142]
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts 2007–2015[143]
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative from Ohio since 2003[144]
- Bernie Sanders,[note 4] U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991–2007; candidate for President in 2016[145][146][147][148]
- Howard Schultz, businessman from New York[149][150]
- Al Sharpton, civil rights activist, Baptist minister, and television/radio talk show host from New York; candidate for President in 2004[151]
- Tom Steyer, billionaire hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist, liberal activist, and fundraiser from California[152][153][154]
- Eric Swalwell, U.S. Representative from California since 2013[155]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013[156][157][148]
Potential convention sites
Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced in June 2018. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.
Endorsements
John Delaney |
---|
|
Andrew Yang |
---|
|
Primary election polling
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Joe Biden |
Michael Bloomberg |
Cory Booker |
Sherrod Brown |
Julian Castro |
Hillary Clinton |
Mark Cuban |
Andrew Cuomo |
Al Franken |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Kamala Harris |
Eric Holder |
Jason Kander |
Joe Kennedy III |
Amy Klobuchar |
Terry McAuliffe |
Michelle Obama |
Deval Patrick |
Tim Ryan |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Oprah Winfrey |
Mark Zuckerberg |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNN/SSRS | 1,009 | October 4–7, 2018 | ± 3.8% | 33% | 4% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1% | 9% | 3% | – | – | 1% | – | – | 1% | 13% | 8% | – | – | 17% | 6% | |
Harvard-Harris[77] | 537 | June 24–25, 2018 | – | 32% | 3% | 6% | – | – | 18% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16% | 10% | – | – | 12% | – |
Zogby Analytics[177] | 495 | June 4–6, 2018 | ± 4.4% | 21% | – | 4% | 0% | – | – | – | 4% | – | 1% | 5% | 1% | – | – | – | 1% | – | 0% | – | 19% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 29% |
Google Surveys[178] | 482 | May 16–19, 2018 | – | 25% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 37% | – | – | – | – | 38% |
Google Surveys[179] | 518 | May 10–19, 2018 | – | 20% | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 26% | 9% | – | – | – | 37% |
Zogby Analytics[180] | 533 | May 10–12, 2018 | ± 4.2% | 26% | – | 3% | 1% | – | – | – | 2% | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | – | – | – | 0% | – | 1% | – | 18% | 8% | 14% | – | – | 22% |
Rasmussen Reports[181] | 1,000 | February 27–28, 2018 | ± 3.0% | 25% | – | 4% | – | – | 9% | – | – | – | – | 4% | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | – | – | 12% | 4% | – | – | 25% | 17% |
Civis Analytics[182] | – | January 19, 2018 | – | 29% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27% | – | 17% | – | 27% | – |
Harvard-Harris[183] | 441 | January 13–16, 2018 | – | 27% | – | 4% | – | – | 13% | – | 2% | – | 1% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 16% | 10% | 13% | – | – | 10% |
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[79] | 1,699 | December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 | ± 2.0% | 28% | – | 3% | – | – | 19% | – | – | – | 2% | 5% | – | – | 4% | 1% | – | – | – | 1% | 22% | 11% | – | – | 4% | – |
RABA Research[184] | 345 | January 10–11, 2018 | ± 5.0% | 26% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 21% | 18% | 20% | – | – | 15% |
Emerson College[80] | 216 | January 8–11, 2018 | – | 27% | – | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | – | 2% | – | – | – | – | 23% | 9% | – | – | 9% | 19% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps[81] | 440 | January 6–11, 2018 | – | 26% | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 29% | 14% | 8% | – | 12% | 6% |
Google Surveys[185] | 310 | December 20–22, 2017 | – | 22% | – | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 31% | 11% | – | – | – | 32% |
Zogby Analytics[186] | 682 | October 30, 2017 | – | 19% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | 1% | 3% | – | – | – | 1% | 2% | 22% | – | – | 18% | 8% | – | 4% | – | 20% |
Zogby Analytics[187] | 356 | September 12, 2017 | – | 17% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | 3% | 6% | – | – | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | – | 28% | 12% | – | 7% | – | 23% |
Harvard-Harris[188] | 2,092 | March 14–16, 2017 | – | – | – | 3% | – | – | 8% | 3% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 11% | – | – | 14% | 9% | 3% | – | 45% | – |
Rasmussen Reports[189] | 1,000 | February 8–9, 2017 | ± 3.0% | 15% | – | 8% | – | – | 17% | – | – | 6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20% | 16% | – | – | 20% | – |
Public Policy Polling[190] | 400 | December 6–7, 2016 | ± 4.9% | 31% | – | 4% | 2% | 0% | – | – | 2% | 3% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 24% | 16% | – | – | – | 14% |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Joe Biden |
Cory Booker |
Kamala Harris |
Bernie Sanders |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Google Surveys[191] | 261 | November 8–10, 2017 | – | 17% | 4% | 14% | 38% | 28% |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Joe Biden |
Cory Booker |
Julian Castro |
Andrew Cuomo |
John Delaney |
Kamala Harris |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing[85][note 5] | 354 | July 24–29, 2018 | ± 5.2% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 29% |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Michael Avenatti |
Joe Biden |
Cory Booker |
Steve Bullock |
Julian Castro |
Andrew Cuomo |
John Delaney |
Eric Garcetti |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Kamala Harris |
Eric Holder |
Amy Klobuchar |
Mitch Landrieu |
Martin O'Malley |
Deval Patrick |
Sheryl Sandberg |
Bernie Sanders |
Howard Schultz |
Elizabeth Warren |
Undecided | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
David Binder Research[192] |
500 | September 20–23, 2018 | – | 1% | 37% | 8% | <1% | N/A | N/A | 1% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 2% | N/A | <1% | N/A | <1% | N/A | 12% | N/A | 16% | 9% | 2% |
Public Policy Polling[193] (for an O'Malley-aligned PAC) |
1,062 | March 3–6, 2017 | – | N/A | N/A | 17% | N/A | 4% | N/A | 8% | N/A | 3% | 3% | N/A | 11% | N/A | 18% | <1% | 4% | N/A | 1% | N/A | 32% | N/A |
Poll source | Sample size | Date(s) | Margin of error | Joe Biden |
Cory Booker |
John Delaney |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
Kamala Harris |
John Hickenlooper |
Joe Kennedy III |
Amy Klobuchar |
Terry McAuliffe |
Martin O'Malley |
Deval Patrick |
Tim Ryan |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Mark Zuckerberg |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire[86] | 198 | August 2–19, 2018 | ± 7.0% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 7% | – | – | 1% | – | – | 30% | 17% | – | 2% | 12% |
Suffolk University[87] | 295 | April 26–30, 2018 | – | 30% | 10% | – | 3% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | – | 8% | – | 25% | – | – | 1% | 15% |
20% | 8% | – | 2% | 4% | – | – | – | 2% | – | 4% | – | 13% | 26% | – | – | 21% | ||||
University of New Hampshire[88] | 188 | April 13–22, 2018 | ± 7.1% | 26% | 5% | – | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 1% | – | 2% | – | 0% | 28% | 11% | – | 2% | 13% |
American Research Group[51] | 400 | March 21–27, 2018 | ± 5.0% | 58% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 33% | – | – | 8% |
47% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | – | – | 7% | ||||
University of New Hampshire[89] | 219 | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | ± 6.6% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | – | – | 0% | – | 1% | – | – | 24% | 15% | – | 4% | 15% |
University of New Hampshire[90] | 212 | October 3–15, 2017 | ± 6.7% | 24% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 3% | – | 1% | 31% | 13% | 2% | 5% | 11% |
Libertarian Party
Declared candidates
These candidates have established campaign websites.
Name | Born | Current or previous positions | State | Announced | Ref |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Kokesh |
February 1, 1982 (age 36) San Francisco, California |
Libertarian and anti-war political activist Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Mexico in 2010 |
Arizona |
July 18, 2013 (Campaign • Website) FEC Filing |
[194] |
Vermin Supreme |
June 1961 (age 57) Rockport, Massachusetts |
Performance artist and activist Candidate for President in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Candidate for Mayor of Detroit, Michigan in 1989 Candidate for Mayor of Baltimore, Maryland in 1987 |
Maryland |
May 28, 2018 (Website) |
[195] |
Arvin Vohra |
May 9, 1979 (age 39) Silver Spring, Maryland |
Vice Chair of the LNC 2014–2018 Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate from Maryland in 2018 Libertarian nominee for U.S. Representative in 2012 and 2014 Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 |
Maryland |
July 3, 2018 (Website) |
[196] |
Convention site
On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22–25, 2020.[197]
Constitution Party
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.
- Don Blankenship, former business executive and convicted criminal; Constitution nominee for U.S. Senate from West Virginia in 2018[63]
Independent or unaffiliated
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.
- Akon, singer, songwriter, businessman, record producer, and actor from New Jersey[198][199]
- Roseanne Barr, actress, comedian, writer, and television producer; Peace and Freedom nominee for President in 2012[200]
- Mark Cuban, businessman and investor from Texas[201][202][203]
- LeBron James, professional basketball player from California[204]
Maps
- The 50 states plus DC, scaled according to the number of electors in each state.
See also
Notes
- ↑ "Generic Republican" specifically excludes Donald Trump.
- ↑ In this poll, Kirsten Gillibrand's name was misspelled as "Kristen Gillebrand".
- 1 2 This individual is not a member of the Republican Party, but has been the subject of speculation and/or expressed interest in running under this party.
- 1 2 This individual is not a member of the Democratic Party, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.
- ↑ In this poll, Kamala Harris' name was misspelled as "Kamela Harris".
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- ↑ Alex Horton (September 29, 2018). "Steve Bannon thinks Michael Avenatti could be a threat to Trump in 2020. Avenatti thinks so, too". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
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