2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Tennessee. The primaries took place on August 2, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[1]

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,336,106 864,863
Percentage 59.6% 38.6%
County results

Lee:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Dean:      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Bill Haslam
Republican

 Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

Elections in Tennessee
Government

Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. As of February 2019, the election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.[2]

Lee was elected with nearly 60% of the vote. This is the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent U.S. President's party was elected Governor of Tennessee.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated
  • Bill Lee, businessman[3]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Beth Harwell
Diane Black
Randy Boyd
Bill Lee
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Diane
Black		 Randy
Boyd		 Beth
Harwell		 Bill
Lee		 Other Undecided
JMC Analytics July 18–21, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 20% 16% 26% 1%[64] 17%
Emerson College July 11–14, 2018 266 ± 6.4% 27% 22% 14% 19% 3% 14%
Data Orbital June 27–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 24% 23% 10% 19% – 24%
Triton Polling & Research (R) June 25–28, 2018 1,040 ± 3.1% 27% 33% 7% 20% – 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) May 14–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 28% 8% 9% – 15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) May 4–6, 2018 800 – 41% 26% 6% 11% – 15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) April 2018 – – 33% 30% 5% 13% – –
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) March 2018 – – 31% 31% 10% 10% – –
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 390 ± 5.0% 25% 20% 6% 7% 2%[65] 37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) February 5–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 22% 25% 4% 18% – 30%
Triton Polling & Research (R) December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 22% 12% 6% 4% 4%[66] 53%

Results
County results
Republican primary results[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee 291,414 36.75
Republican Randy Boyd 193,054 24.35
Republican Diane Black 182,457 23.01
Republican Beth Harwell 121,484 15.32
Republican Kay White 3,215 0.41
Republican Basil Marceaux 1,264 0.16
Total votes 792,888 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements
Karl Dean
Federal officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Karl
Dean		 Craig
Fitzhugh		 Other Undecided
Emerson College July 11–14, 2018 206 ± 7.3% 44% 14% 9% 33%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 41% 11% – 44%

Results
Primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Karl Dean 280,553 75.14
Democratic Craig Fitzhugh 72,553 23.42
Democratic Mezianne Vale Payne 20,284 5.44
Total votes 373,390 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Notes
  1. Libertarian Party and Green Party do not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[77]

General election

Debates

Endorsements
Bill Lee (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Karl Dean (D)
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[94] Likely R October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[95] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[97] Likely R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[98] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[99][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[100] Likely R November 5, 2018
Governing[101] Likely R November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[102] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[103] Solid R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Lee (R)		 Karl
Dean (D)		 Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 480 – 53% 44% – 2%
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 54% 41% 2% 3%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 54% 37% 2% 7%
850 RV ± 3.0% 52% 36% 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 56% 44% – –
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 52% 42% 0% 4%
871 RV ± 4.0% 52% 41% 0% 5%
East Tennessee State University October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 48% 36% 5% 9%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 59% 36% 3% 2%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 57% 40% 1% 3%
764 RV ± 4.4% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 48% 37% 0% 12%
Targoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018 558 LV – 56% 44% – –
801 RV – 49% 39% – 12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 59% 33% – 8%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 53% 36% 1% 10%
806 RV ± 3.5% 52% 35% 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 46% 35% – 19%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 55% 45% – –
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 52% 43% 0% 3%
852 RV ± 3.9% 49% 43% 0% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 54% 37% – 9%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 55% 35% 1% 10%
809 RV ± 3.5% 52% 34% 2% 12%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 53% 40% 1% 7%
730 RV ± 4.5% 51% 39% 1% 9%
Gravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 51% 40% – 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 38% 34% – 28%

Results
Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018[104]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.56% -10.75%
Democratic Karl Dean 864,863 38.55% +15.71%
Independent Other candidates 42,314 1.89% N/A
n/a Write-ins 11 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,243,294 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References
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  79. Mike Pence. "Congratulations on a big primary win to @BillLeeTN! The people of Tennessee are fortunate to have a man like you step up to serve as their Governor. @realDonaldTrump and I strongly support you & look forward to campaigning with you to victory in November!". Twitter.
  80. Lamar Alexander. "Congratulations to Bill Lee on tonight's victory. As I've often said, there is no better job than being governor of your home state, especially if that state is Tennessee. I look forward to working with Bill to continue Governor Haslam's excellent leadership of our state". Twitter.
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  91. Terry McAuliffe. "Phone banking for @KarlFDean #TeamDean". Twitter.
  92. Martin O'Malley. "It's great to be in Nashville with @PhilBredesen and @KarlFDean! Tennessee is fired up and feeling that blue wave!". Twitter.
  93. Rep. Craig Fitzhugh. "I'm all in for @KarlFDean and you should be, too. For more #jobs, higher wages, for #educators & #MedicaidExpansion—there's only one choice. #TeamDean". Twitter.
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  104. https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/Nov%202018%20General%20Totals.pdf
Official campaign websites
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