2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Bob Corker opted to retire instead of running for a third term. Republican U.S. Representative Marsha Blackburn won the open seat, defeating former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen.

2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee
November 6, 2018
Turnout53.89%
 
Nominee Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,227,483 985,450
Percentage 54.7% 43.9%
County results
Blackburn:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Bredesen:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Corker
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

Elections in Tennessee
Government

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[2]

Withdrawn

Declined

Speculation surrounding Senator Corker

On September 26, 2017, Republican Senator Bob Corker announced that he would not seek reelection in 2018.[20] Without Corker running, it was widely believed that the Republican Party would have a much harder time keeping the seat. Many called on Corker to reverse his decision to retire. Former U.S. Representative Fincher dropped out of the race, calling on Corker to jump back in and challenge U.S. Representative Blackburn for the GOP nomination. Fincher said in a statement that the GOP should unite "behind a candidate who can win" the general election. Blackburn said she would remain in the race even if Corker reversed his decision. Amid the speculation about Corker's decision, many of Tennessee's Republican politicians, including many in the Tennessee General Assembly, reiterated their support for Blackburn.[21] Corker's chief of staff announced on February 27, 2018, that Corker would stick with his plan to retire.[22]

Endorsements

Polling

Results
Primary results by county:
Republican primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marsha Blackburn 613,513 84.48%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew 112,705 15.52%
Write-in 13 <0.01%
Total votes 726,231 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn
  • James Mackler, attorney and veteran[25]
  • Bill Bailey, teaching assistant and retired UPS trailer mechanic[26]

Declined

Endorsements

Taylor Swift (pop musician)[37]

Results
Primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Phil Bredesen 349,718 91.51%
Democratic Gary Davis 20,170 5.28%
Democratic John Wolfe Jr. 12,269 3.21%
Total votes 382,157 100%

Independents
  • Dean Hill, US Army Veteran, Ex-Government, Business Owner, Realtor

General election

The election was expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in 2018. Corker's retirement and Bredesen's entry into the race made it one of the few potential offensive opportunities for Democrats.[39] On November 1, 2018, incumbent Bob Corker announced that he would not endorse either Blackburn or Bredesen; he added that either candidate would be a good senator for Tennessee.[40]

Polls showed the race to be close until the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in September and October, which many Tennesseans believed the Democratic Party handled poorly. This is believed to have mobilized Republican voters and cost Bredesen any chance of winning.[41] Bredesen also announced his support for Kavanaugh, which some believe may have cost him supporters.[42]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
RealClearPolitics[43] Tossup November 5, 2018
The Cook Political Report[44] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[45] Lean R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] Lean R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[47] Lean R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[48] Likely R November 5, 2018
Fox News[49] Lean R November 5, 2018
CNN[50] Tossup November 5, 2018

Debates

Endorsements
Marsha Blackburn (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Phil Bredesen (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R) $11,568,094 $9,062,332 $2,505,762
Phil Bredesen (D) $14,868,198 $11,693,910 $3,174,289
Source: Federal Election Commission[130]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn (R)		 Phil
Bredesen (D)		 Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 480 – 49% 49% – 2%
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 52% 44% 2% 3%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 50% 41% 3% 5%
850 RV ± 3.0% 48% 40% 3% 8%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 53% 47% – –
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 49% 45% 0% 3%
871 RV ± 4.0% 47% 46% 0% 4%
East Tennessee State University October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 44% 44% – –
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 4%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 51% 46% 1% 3%
764 RV ± 4.4% 49% 46% 1% 3%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 43% 44% 1% 8%
Targoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018 558 LV – 52% 48% – –
801 RV – 44% 45% – 11%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 54% 40% – 6%
Ipsos October 4–11, 2018 1,108 ± 3.4% 47% 44% 3% 6%
YouGov October 2–5, 2018 871 ± 3.6% 50% 42% 2% 6%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 48% 43% 3% 7%
806 RV ± 3.5% 47% 41% 3% 8%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen) September 23–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – –
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 42% 42% – 15%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 49% 51% – –
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 45% 50% 0% 3%
852 RV ± 3.9% 42% 50% 0% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 48% 45% – 7%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 47% 44% 1% 8%
809 RV ± 3.5% 45% 43% 2% 9%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 46% 48% <1% 5%
730 RV ± 4.5% 44% 48% <1% 7%
Gravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College July 11–14, 2018 657 ± 4.1% 37% 43% 5% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Duty and Country PAC) July 10–11, 2018 583 ± 4.1% 41% 44% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) July 9–11, 2018 551 ± 4.2% 38% 35% – 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,010 ± 4.5% 55% 41% – 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) April 30 – May 1, 2018 609 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,638 ± 4.0% 47% 48% – 5%
Mason-Dixon April 17–19, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bredesen) April 9–11, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Middle Tennessee State University March 22–29, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 35% 45% – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 1,014 ± 3.1% 41% 46% – 13%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) February 13–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 39% – 17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) January 26–29, 2018 – – 45% 47% – 8%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 51% 40% – 10%
WPA Intelligence (R-CDP PAC) December 13–14 and 17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 43% 34% – 23%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017 563 ± 4.1% 40% 42% – 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) October 20–22, 2017 601 ± 4.1% 41% 46% – 13%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Blackburn defeated Bredesen in the general election, carrying all but three counties, the largest number of counties ever won in an open senate election in Tennessee.[131] Although polls began to show the race in Blackburn's favor following the Kavanaugh hearings, Blackburn won by a larger margin than all but one poll showed.

2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee[132]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Marsha Blackburn 1,227,483 54.71% -10.18%
Democratic Phil Bredesen 985,450 43.92% +13.51%
Independent Trudy Austin 9,455 0.42% N/A
Independent Dean Hill 8,717 0.39% N/A
Independent Kris L. Todd 5,084 0.23% N/A
Independent John Carico 3,398 0.15% N/A
Independent Breton Phillips 2,226 0.10% N/A
Independent Kevin Lee McCants 1,927 0.09% N/A
Total votes 2,243,740 100% N/A
Republican hold

References
  1. Robillard, Kevin (October 5, 2017). "Blackburn enters Tennessee Senate race, as Haslam passes". Politico. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  2. Ebert, Joel (April 6, 2018). "See who's running for statewide, federal and legislative offices in Tennessee in 2018". The Tennessean. Retrieved 16 May 2018.
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  51. ".@MarshaBlackburn is a wonderful woman who has always been there when we have needed her. Great on the Military, Border Security and Crime. Loves and works hard for the people of Tennessee. She has my full endorsement and I will be there to campaign with her!". Twitter.
  52. Mike Pence. "PROUD to support our friend @VoteMarsha for US Senate representing Tennessee. Marsha Blackburn is a rock-ribbed conservative who has been a champion of President Trump's pro-jobs, pro-military, AMERICA FIRST agenda & will be critical ally in the Senate. She has our full support!". Twitter.
  53. Marsha Blackburn. ".@CondoleezzaRice is a leader for our country and our party, and I am so honored to earn her endorsement. In the Senate, I will continue to fight for our shared principles". Twitter.
  54. Lamar Alexander. "I have supported Marsha Blackburn as a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, and I support her again as a candidate for the United States Senate. She has served Tennesseans well. I look forward to working with her to make the Senate a more effective institution". Twitter.
  55. John Boozman. "We need every #ProLife vote we can get in the Senate and @VoteMarsha has been a champion for the dignity and worth of the unborn. Appreciate her bold stand for life and I know she'll keep up the fight in the Senate. #VoteLife #VoteMarsha". Twitter.
  56. Marsha Blackburn. "Thrilled to have Senator @TomCottonAR in Tennessee today to support my campaign! #TeamMarsha". Twitter.
  57. Mark Zaleski and Michael Schwab. "Iowa U.S. Senator Joni Ernst campaigns with Marsha Blackburn in Nashville". The Tennessean.
  58. Deb Fischer. ".@VoteMarsha is a strong voice for life. Her voice should not be silenced. We need more strong pro-life women like Marsha in the senate. #TNSen". Twitter.
  59. "Graham to boost Blackburn Senate bid Sunday in Tennessee". NewsChannel5.com. October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  60. David Perdue. "President @realDonaldTrump is exactly right. @VoteMarsha will be a conservative champion in the U.S. Senate". Twitter.
  61. Chris Bundgaard. "Former Republican presidential candidate Sen Marco Rubio campaigns for U-S Senate candidate Rep Marsha Blackburn at Latinos For TN event @WKRN". Twitter.
  62. Marsha Blackburn. "Excited to have Senator @ThomTillis and Senator @TomCottonAR in Tennessee to support my campaign. I look forward to working alongside them in the U.S. Senate to continue on the great progress we've made in our nation! #TeamMarsha". Twitter.
  63. Ebert, Joel (March 28, 2018). "Marsha Blackburn picks up Diane Black's support in U.S. Senate bid". The Tennessean.
  64. David Kustoff. "Starting our day at the Madison County GOP HQ Grand Opening! Im on the campaign trail today with my friend @VoteMarsha. West Tennessee needs Marsha as our next Senator!". Twitter.
  65. Conradis, Brandon (10 June 2018). "Scalise throws support behind Black, Blackburn ahead of Tennessee primary".
  66. Sher, Andy (September 24, 2018). "Former GOP rival Fincher endorses Blackburn in Senate contest". Chattanooga Times Free Press.
  67. "Victor Ashe: Governor Bill Haslam, other big names boost Marsha Blackburn in Knox". Knoxville News Sentinel. May 14, 2018. Retrieved May 16, 2018.
  68. Ebert, Joel (September 14, 2018). "Former Gov. Winfield Dunn endorses Marsha Blackburn in US Senate race". The Tennessean. Retrieved September 14, 2018.
  69. Capps, Andrew (April 6, 2018). "Former Governor Sundquist endorses Blackburn in Senate race". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  70. Ron Ramsey. "Peaceful protesters deserve our respect. Marauding mobs do not. These agitators make no point. They promote no cause. Their only mission is disruption. They respect nothing & no one, including the victims of Pittsburgh. We will not be intimidated. We will vote. #StandWithMarsha". Twitter.
  71. Ebert, Joel (February 21, 2018). "In U.S. Senate bid, Blackburn nets endorsements from 18 GOP state Senators". The Tennessean. Retrieved February 21, 2018.
  72. Jim Henry (October 24, 2018). "Marsha Blackburn will put our Tennessee values first". Knoxville News Sentinel.
  73. Jack Johnson. "It's time for conservatives to rally behind @MarshaBlackburn so we can win the U.S. Senate race in November!". Twitter.
  74. William Lamberth. "Now is the time for every Republican to rally behind a true conservative @MarshaBlackburn With our help, she can and will win this race in the fall. #StandWithMarsha". Twitter.
  75. Randy McNally. "I've been consistently impressed by @VoteMarsha's dedication to fiscal conservatism. This dedication is needed now more than ever at the federal level. It is time for all @TNGOP to rally around @VoteMarsha for Senate". Twitter.
  76. Jay Dean Reedy. "When @FortCampbell was in danger of losing 20,000 personnel, @VoteMarsha took action to secure jobs and resources for our armed forces. We can always count on Marsha to be a friend to our military! Vote early for Marsha Blackburn for the U.S. Senate". Twitter.
  77. Jason Zachary. "Now is the time for Republicans from across TN to rally behind @VoteMarsha! She is the conservative leader we can count on to represent conservative principles in the @USSenate. #StandWithMarsha". Twitter.
  78. Diamond and Silk. "We support @VoteMarsha for U.S. Senator representing Tennessee. She stands up for Americans, and she supports the @POTUS and his agenda. Vote Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senator #MAGA". Twitter.
  79. Flessner, Dave (October 15, 2018). "NRA campaigns for Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee's U.S. Senate race". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Retrieved October 18, 2018.
  80. Blackburn, Marsha (24 October 2018). ".@TheLeeGreenwood is a strong leader in Tennessee's recording industry and true American patriot. I'm grateful to have his support as I work to defend faith, family, and freedom in the U.S. Senate. #TennesseeValuespic.twitter.com/epdXv5ufXg".
  81. Marsha Blackburn. "Honored to have Art Laffer's endorsement in my race for U.S. Senate. As a conservative economist and close Reagan advisor, I'm thrilled to have his advice and continued support for our campaign". Twitter.
  82. Tomi Lahren. "I'm with @MarshaBlackburn 🇺🇸". Twitter.
  83. Bill Lee. "Brett Kavanaugh is an excellent pick for SCOTUS. He is a strong defender of the Constitution and he deserves a swift confirmation in the Senate. This is also a reminder on the importance of keeping conservatives in the Senate like @VoteMarsha to ensure confirmation". Twitter.
  84. Ronna McDaniel. "The choice is clear: Elect someone with Tennessee values, or elect someone with Chuck Schumer's. @VoteMarsha on November 6! #TNSen". Twitter.
  85. Candace Owens. "On the heels of @taylorswift13 feeling the need to, as all Hollywood elitists do, use black people and minorities as pawns to brainwash people into doing their bidding— I would like come out to Tennessee and campaign for @MarshaBlackburn. Marsha, let's do this! #MAGA". Twitter.
  86. Marsha Blackburn. ".@DaveRamsey has been a good friend of mine ever since we worked together to stop the massive job-killing state income tax in Tennessee. He is a brilliant economic mind, trusted counsel, and I'm honored to have his support as we work to win in November". Twitter.
  87. Marsha Blackburn. ".@MichaelWSmith and his wife Debbie are dear friends of mine and strong defenders of our Tennessee values. Michael has championed faith, family, and freedom through his music and I look forward to taking these same values to the U.S. Senate". Twitter.
  88. Blackburn, Marsha (22 October 2018). "Southern hospitality & warm welcomes are true #TennesseeValues. It's an honor to have @EricTrump in West Tennessee today to support our campaign, & I look forward to working alongside #TeamTrump in the U.S. Senate to continue making America great again! #MAGA #TeamMarshapic.twitter.com/bDQEhzQEuO".
  89. Blackburn, Marsha (22 October 2018). "Phil Bredesen will go along to get along with Washington liberals every time. @AllWaltrip wants his next Senator to represent conservative values, & I'm the only one Tennesseans can count on to do that.pic.twitter.com/V6jFkeYjGK".
  90. James Woods [@RealJamesWoods] (October 8, 2018). "Just for the record, everybody, @MarshaBlackburn was eleven years old when the Equal Pay Act was signed by President Kennedy. #FactsAreFriendly" (Tweet). Retrieved October 8, 2018 – via Twitter.
  91. Woolery, Chuck (10 October 2017). "I'm all for Marsha Blackburn to step into Corkers shoes".
  92. Alex Isenstadt (October 10, 2017). "Citizens United endorses Blackburn in Tennessee senate race". Politico. Retrieved October 10, 2017.
  93. Stacy French. "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Congressman Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate". Club for Growth PAC. Retrieved October 13, 2017.
  94. "Maggie's List Announces 2018 National Endorsements Supporting 49 Women Candidates Running for US Congress and Statewide Executive Office". Maggie's List. May 2, 2018.
  95. "Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate in Tennessee". Senate Conservatives Fund. December 1, 2017.
  96. "Nat'l Pro-life Group Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Senate". Susan B. Anthony List. February 13, 2018.
  97. Students For Trump. "We must elect @MarshaBlackburn to Senate in Tennessee. She is a terrific Congresswoman and she has our full support and endorsement!". Twitter.
  98. Marsha Blackburn. "The @USChamber is a strong advocate for American businesses, and I am so honored by their endorsement". Twitter.
  99. "NRA Endorses Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate". NRA-PVF. September 19, 2018.
  100. "ACU Endorses Marsha Blackburn". American Conservative Union.
  101. Elliott, Stephen (September 28, 2018). "Home builders endorse Blackburn". Nashville Post.
  102. "CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. Blackburn for U.S. Senate, Rep. Kustoff for House". CCAGW PAC. September 25, 2018.
  103. "National Right to Life endorses Marsha Blackburn for Tennessee Senate, opposes Phil Bredesen". NRL News Today. July 19, 2018.
  104. "Tennessee's Fraternal Order of Police endorses Blackburn in Senate race". Franklin Home Page. October 9, 2018.
  105. "The Tennessee Police Benevolent Association Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Senator". Southern States PBA. October 11, 2018.
  106. "Small Business Endorses Congressman Blackburn for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. October 18, 2018.
  107. Cooper, Clint (July 12, 2018). "Blackburn earns shot at Senate". Retrieved July 31, 2018.
  108. "Joe Biden swoops in to give Democrat Phil Bredesen a money boost in tight Tennessee Senate race". CNBC. CNBC. April 9, 2018.
  109. "NV, AZ & TN-Sen: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) Helps These Democrats Win A Senate Majority". Daily Kos. Daily Kos. March 30, 2018.
  110. "Also, thank you to my friend, @SenDougJones, for speaking at the dinner & letting me add myself to your autograph collection. I look forward to working together in the U.S. Senate". Twitter.
  111. "TX & TN-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Wants To Flip These Senate Seats From Red To Blue". Daily Kos. August 8, 2018.
  112. "TN-Sen: Sen. Ron Wyden (D. OR) Helps Former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) Flip The Senate". Daily Kos. March 29, 2018.
  113. Brian Schatz. "I'm giving to @PhilBredesen please feel free to join me and send help too. Thank you". Twitter.
  114. Terri Sewell. "Blue Wave! @PhilBredesen and @RepCooper making it happen in Nashville!". Twitter.
  115. Ebert, Joel (August 9, 2018). "Jason Isbell, Ben Folds to headline Phil Bredesen fundraiser". The Tennessean.
  116. WKRN Web Staff. "Former candidate James Mackler endorses Phil Bredesen for U.S. Senate". WKRN. Retrieved December 15, 2017.
  117. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  118. "Taylor Swift breaks silence on politics, supports Democrats in Tennessee races". The Hill. October 8, 2018.
  119. "Younger voters turn out big in Tennessee's early voting". The Tennessean.
  120. Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
  121. Martin O'Malley. "It's great to be in Nashville with @PhilBredesen and @KarlFDean! Tennessee is fired up and feeling that blue wave!". Twitter.
  122. "AFGE Endorses Phil Bredesen for Senate". PR Newswire. October 17, 2018.
  123. Shaffer, Paul (April 19, 2018). "President's Message - Tennessee AFL-CIO Labor Council". Tennessee AFL-CIO Labor Council.
  124. "Tennessee – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  125. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2018-03-16. Retrieved 2018-03-15.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  126. "Humane Society Legislative Fund Endorses Phil Bredesen for U.S. Senate". HSLF: Humane Society Legislative Fund. October 9, 2018.
  127. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Phil Bredesen for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. October 4, 2018.
  128. "ENDORSEMENTS". Sierra Club.
  129. Sohn, Pam (July 12, 2018). "Bredesen a Problem Solver, Blackburn a Problem Maker". Retrieved July 14, 2018.
  130. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved July 27, 2018.
  131. Bolton, Alexander (November 6, 2018). "Blackburn keeps Tennessee seat in GOP hands". thehill.com. Retrieved November 7, 2018.
  132. "November 6, 2018 Unofficial Election Results". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
  1. Swift’s October endorsement is reported to have helped increase the youth demographic’s early voting in Tennessee by 664%[119]
Official campaign websites
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