2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic Senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed his successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.

2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota

November 6, 2018
Turnout63.66%
 
Nominee Tina Smith Karin Housley
Party Democratic–Farmer–Labor Republican
Popular vote 1,370,540 1,095,777
Percentage 53.0% 42.4%

County Results

Smith:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%

Housley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Congressional District Results

Smith:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Housley:      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Tina Smith
Democratic–Farmer–Labor

Elected U.S. Senator

Tina Smith
Democratic–Farmer–Labor

The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.[1] Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Karin Housley in the general election.

DFL primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Richard Painter
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals

Results

Results by county
Results by congressional district
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Tina Smith (incumbent) 433,705 76.06%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Richard Painter 78,193 13.71%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Ali Chehem Ali 18,897 3.31%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Gregg Iverson 17,825 3.13%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Nick Leonard 16,529 2.90%
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Christopher L. Seymore Sr. 5,041 0.88%
Total votes 570,190 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Bob Anderson, businessman[15]
  • Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey[3]

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Results by county
Results by congressional district
Republican Party primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Karin Housley 186,384 61.95%
Republican Bob Anderson 107,102 35.60%
Republican Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey 7,355 2.45%
Total votes 300,861 100%

Minor parties and independents

Candidates

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[28] Lean D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[29] Likely D April 9, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Likely D April 5, 2018
Fox News[31] Likely D^ July 9, 2018
CNN[32] Likely D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[33] Lean D August 13, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements

Karin Housley (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Tina Smith (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Tina Smith (D) $8,237,522 $7,308,790 $928,730
Karin Housley (R) $4,049,032 $3,689,562 $359,470
Source: Federal Election Commission[97]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tina
Smith (D)
Karin
Housley (R)
Sarah
Wellington (LMN)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 953 51% 42% 3% 2%[98]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 49% 39% 2% 10%
SurveyUSA October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 5.3% 48% 40% 5% 7%
St. Cloud State University Oct 15-30, 2018 420 44% 29%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 47% 41% 1% 1%[99] 10%
Change Research October 12–13, 2018 1,413 46% 43% 5% 2%[98] 2%
Marist College September 30 – October 4, 2018 637 LV ± 4.9% 54% 38% <1% 7%
860 RV ± 4.2% 52% 39% <1% 9%
Mason-Dixon September 10–12, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 44% 37% 2% 2%[98] 15%
SurveyUSA September 6–8, 2018 574 ± 4.9% 48% 39% 2% 11%
Suffolk University August 17–20, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 37% 2% 0%[100] 18%
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 32% 28% 41%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018 876 ± 4.0% 49% 35% 1% 15%
BK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018 1,574 ± 2.5% 48% 39% 13%

Results

Smith won the election by 10.62 percentage points. Her margin was similar to that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz, who defeated his Republican opponent by 11.41%. Both of those margins of victory were much smaller than that of senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, who on the same day defeated her Republican opponent by 24.1 points. Smith won by huge margins in the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin County and Ramsey County, home of Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively. She also managed a 10% margin of victory in suburban Dakota County, just outside Minneapolis, and won St. Louis County, home of Duluth. Housley won most of the state's rural areas. Turnout was high for a midterm election, with over 63% of registered voters in Minnesota casting ballots.

Results by precinct
United States Senate special election in Minnesota, 2018[101]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic–Farmer–Labor Tina Smith (incumbent) 1,370,540 52.97% -0.18%
Republican Karin Housley 1,095,777 42.35% -0.56%
LMN Sarah Wellington 95,614 3.70% N/A
Independent Jerry Trooien 24,324 0.94% N/A
Write-in 1,101 0.04% N/A
Total votes 2,587,356 100.0% N/A
Democratic–Farmer–Labor hold

Voter demographics

See also

  • Minnesota elections, 2018

References

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  3. "Candidate Filings". candidates.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved 2018-06-08.
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  34. Donald J. Trump. "Just made my second stop in Minnesota for a MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN rally. We need to elect @KarinHousley to the U.S. Senate, and we need the strong leadership of @TomEmmer, @Jason2CD, @JimHagedornMN and @PeteStauber in the U.S. House!". Twitter.
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  50. Karin Housley. "I am so pleased to have the endorsement of @maggieslist1—joining so many other conservative women across the country running for office to fight for the communities we love. #mnsen". Twitter.
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  58. Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote:". Twitter.
  59. Tina Smith. "I'm absolutely honored to have the endorsement of Vice President @JoeBiden. I've been fighting for the progressive values of Minnesotans for decades and I'll keep being the champion of our shared values VP Biden fought so hard for". Twitter.
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  61. Hillary Clinton. ".@TinaSmithMN shares some qualities with her wonderful home state: hardworking, no-nonsense, huge heart. She's in a tight race to keep working for Minnesota families in a race that could decide control of the Senate. Pitch in if you can:". Twitter.
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  63. "MN-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Gives Tina Smith (D) A Boost To Win Her Special Election". Daily Kos. June 25, 2018.
  64. "MN-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Tina Smith (D) Get Ready To Defeat Michelle Bachmann (R)". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  65. Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Smith.
  66. "MN-Sen: Amy Klobuchar (D) Helps Tina "The Velvet Hammer" Smith (D) Get Ready For Victory". Daily Kos. March 6, 2018.
  67. "MI & MN-Sen: Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps His Stabenow (D) & Smith (D) Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. June 26, 2018.
  68. "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 28, 2018.
  69. "MN-Sen: Sen. Brian Schatz (D. HI) Helps Fellow Progressive Tina Smith (D) Win Her Special Election". Daily Kos. March 11, 2018.
  70. "OH, WI, PA & MN-Sen: Warren (D. MA) Helps These Dems Continue To Stand Up To Wall Street". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018.
  71. Catherine Cortez Mastro. ".@TinaSmithMN has one of the toughest Senate races. I was on the ground recently with @amyklobuchar & @CecileRichards fighting for Tina". Twitter.
  72. Tina Smith. "So fun to run into my friend @tammybaldwin on the campaign trail today! We're fighting as hard as we can to stay in the Senate and make sure the people of Minnesota and Wisconsin have strong voices representing them in Washington". Twitter.
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  75. Peggy Flanagan. "I've always had fight & fury in me but I've got it like never before and I'm so thankful we have leaders like Tina in DC right now. I'm standing here running for Lt. Governor because of Tina Smith. Because of the path she cleared. I'm grateful for her friendship & her mentorship". Twitter.
  76. Tina Smith. "Folks have been knocking on doors every day, all day, to get people out to vote on (& before!) November 6. We can't take anything for granted - but we're feeling fired up. Thanks to @JeffMerkley @melvincarter3 @VoteBetty & @TristaMatas for greeting DFL volunteers this afternoon!". Twitter.
  77. Eric Garcetti. ""People are so sick and tired of the political games being played in DC. That's why I'm focused on listening and getting things done for Minnesotans!" — @TinaSmithMN. I'm rooting her on today (and for the next 16 days & beyond). #EGinMN". Twitter.
  78. Tina Smith. "In 11 days, @CecileRichards and I need everyone - and I mean everyone - to get to their polling place to vote. Vote for reproductive freedom. Vote for access to affordable high-quality health care. We are responsible for the outcome of this election. With your help, we will win". Twitter.
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  82. "Minnesota AFL-CIO makes first round of 2018 political endorsements | Minnesota AFL-CIO". www.mnaflcio.org. March 6, 2018.
  83. "SEIU Endorse Tina Smith, Angie Craig, Keith Ellison and Betty McCollum". seiumn.org. March 9, 2018.
  84. "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  85. "USW Lauds Appointment of Tina Smith to U.S. Senate". United Steelworkers. Smith has indicated that she will also run in the November 2018 election to fill the remaining two years of the term, and the USW has promised to provide strong support to her campaign.
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  93. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". Retrieved 18 December 2018.
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  97. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  98. Jerry Trooien (I) with 2%
  99. Jerry Trooien (I) with 1%
  100. Jerry Trooien (I) with 0%
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  102. "Minnesota Senate special election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2018.
Official campaign websites
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