Next Spanish general election

Background

After a second general election in June 2016 had resulted in the People's Party (PP) gaining votes and seats from its December 2015 result, a new round of talks throughout the summer saw Mariano Rajoy obtaining the support of Ciudadanos (C's) and Canarian Coalition (CC) for his investiture, but this was still not enough to assure him re-election. Criticism on Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez for his electoral results and his hardline stance on Rajoy's investiture, said to be a contributing factor to the country's political deadlock, reached a boiling point after poor PSOE showings in the Basque and Galician elections.^[15] A party crisis unraveled, seeing Sánchez being ousted and a caretaker committee being appointed by party rebels led by Susana Díaz, who subsequently set out to abstain in Rajoy's investiture and allow a PP minority government to be formed, preventing a third election in a row from taking place.^{[16][17][18][19]} Díaz's bid to become new party leader was defeated by party members in a party primary in May 2017, with Sánchez being voted again into office under a campaign aimed at criticising the PSOE's abstention in Rajoy's investiture.

Concurrently, the incumbent PP cabinet found itself embroiled in a string of political scandals which had seen the political demise of former Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre—amid claims of a massive financial corruption plot staged by former protegés—as well as accusations of judicial meddling and political cover-up.^{[20][21][22][23]} This prompted left-wing Unidos Podemos to table a no-confidence motion on Mariano Rajoy in June 2017.^[24][25] While the motion was voted down due to a lack of support from other opposition parties, it revealed the parliamentary weakness of Rajoy's government—as abstentions and favourable votes combined amounted to 179, to just 170 MPs rejecting it.^[26][27]

Pressure on the Spanish government increased after a massive constitutional crisis over the issue of an illegal independence referendum unraveled in Catalonia. Initial actions from the Parliament of Catalonia to approve two bills supporting a referendum and a legal framework for an independent Catalan state were suspended by the Constitutional Court of Spain. However, the government's crackdown on referendum preparations—which included police searches, raids and arrests of Catalan government officials, as well as an intervention of Catalan finances—sparked public outcry and protests accusing the PP government of "anti-democratic and totalitarian" repression.^[28][29][30] Subsequently, the Catalan parliament voted to unilaterally declare independence from Spain,^[31] which resulted in the Spanish Senate enforcing Article 155 of the Constitution to remove the regional authorities and impose direct rule.^[32][3][33] Puigdemont and part of his cabinet fled to Belgium after being ousted, facing charges of sedition, rebellion and embezzlement.^[34][35][36] Rajoy immediately dissolved the Catalan parliament and called a regional election for 21 December 2017,^[37] but it left his PP severely mauled as Cs capitalized anti-independence support in the region.^[4]

The scale of PP's collapse in Catalonia and the success of Cs had an impact in national politics, with Ciudadanos skyrocketing to first place nationally in subsequent opinion polls, endangering PP's stand as the hegemonic party within the Spanish centre-right spectrum.^{[38][39][6][7]} This was joined by massive protests of retiree groups—long regarded to constitute the PP's electoral base—demanding pension increases,^[5] further undermining the PP stand in power.

On 24 May 2018, the National Court found that the PP profited from the illegal kickbacks-for-contracts scheme of the Gürtel case, confirming the existence of an illegal accounting and financing structure that ran in parallel with the party's official one since 1989 and ruling that the PP helped establish "a genuine and effective system of institutional corruption through the manipulation of central, autonomous and local public procurement".^[8] This event prompted the PSOE to submit a motion of no confidence in Rajoy and in Cs withdrawing its support from the government and demanding the immediate calling of an early election.^[9][10] An absolute majority of 180 MPs in the Congress of Deputies voted to oust Mariano Rajoy from power on 1 June 2018, being replaced as Prime Minister by PSOE's Pedro Sánchez.^[11] On 5 June, Rajoy announced his farewell from politics and his return to his position as property registrar in Santa Pola,^[12][13][40] vacating his seat in the Congress of Deputies and triggering a leadership contest in which the party's Vice Secretary-General of Communication, Pablo Casado, defeated former Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and became new PP president on 21 July 2018.^[41][14]

Electoral system

The Spanish Cortes Generales are envisaged as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a Prime Minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive, yet limited in number functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override.^[1][42] Voting for the Cortes Generales is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen and in full enjoyment of their political rights.^[43] Additionally, Spaniards abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[44]

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method may result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.^[45] Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 248 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla are allocated the two remaining seats, which are elected using plurality voting.^{[1][2][46][47]}

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an open list partial block voting, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors can vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces is allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza–Formentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants.^{[1][2][46][47]}

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in either House of Parliament at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election, whereas groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of 1 percent of electors. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.^[2][47] After the experience of the 2015–16 political deadlock leading to the June 2016 election and the possibility of a third election being needed, the electoral law was amended in order to introduce a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, the lifting of signature requirements if these had been already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions without needing to go through pre-election procedures again.

Election date

The term of each House of the Cortes Generales—the Congress and the Senate—expires four years from the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election Decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of the Cortes in the event that the Prime Minister does not make use of his prerogative of early dissolution. The Decree shall be published on the following day in the Official State Gazette, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 June 2016, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 June 2020. The election Decree shall be published no later than 2 June 2020, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes Generales on Sunday, 26 July 2020.^[2][47]

The Prime Minister has the prerogative to dissolve both Houses at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both Houses are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a Prime Minister within a two-month period from the first ballot.^[1][46] Barred this exception, there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Congress and the Senate, there being no precedent of separate elections and with governments having long preferred that elections for the two Houses take place simultaneously.