Andalusian regional election, 2018

Andalusian regional election, 2018
2 December 2018
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 6,541,722[1] 1.2%

 
Leader Susana Díaz Juan Manuel Moreno Teresa Rodríguez
Party PSOE–A PP Adelante Andalucía
Leader since 7 September 2013 1 March 2014 9 February 2015
Leader's seat Seville Málaga Málaga
Last election 47 seats, 35.4% 33 seats, 26.7% 20 seats, 21.7%[lower-alpha 1]
Seats needed 8 22 35
 
Leader Juan Marín
Party Cs
Leader since 6 February 2015
Leader's seat Seville
Last election 9 seats, 9.3%
Seats needed 47
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
Incumbent President

Susana Díaz
PSOE–A

The 2018 Andalusian regional election will be held on Sunday, 2 December 2018, to elect the 11th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

As a result of the previous election, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) was able to retain power after obtaining confidence and supply support from Citizens (Cs),[2] which endured President Susana Díaz's defeat in the 2017 PSOE leadership election.[3] The PSOE–Cs agreement broke up in September 2018 after Cs withdrew their support from Díaz's government,[4] prompting Díaz to announce the Parliament's dissolution on 8 October and call a snap election for 2 December 2018.[5]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Regional Government.[6] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Andalusians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[7]

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method may result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[8] Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each province does not exceed two times that of any other.[6][9]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[9][10][11]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election Decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 22 March 2015, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 March 2019. The election Decree was required to be published no later than 26 February 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 April 2019.[6][9][10][11]

The President of the Regional Government had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[6][12]

Throughout the first half of 2018, it settled among opposition parties the idea that Díaz would call a snap election by October–November 2018, several months ahead of schedule.[13][14] On 3 July, ABC hypothesized on the actual chances of an early election taking place, dubbing it as a real possibility after considering that Díaz would seek to capitalize on the PSOE's growing popularity in opinion polls, hoping to benefit from the disarray within the People's Party ranks—resulting from its national leadership contest—and Citizens' inability to react after the motion of no confidence which ousted Mariano Rajoy's government from power.[15] During the summer of 2018, it transpired that Susana Díaz was considering to call an autumn election for 28 October.[16][17] In early September it was commented that the date would be delayed until either 18 or 25 November,[18][19] After Cs officially withdrew its confidence and supply support from the government on 7 September, leaving the PSOE in minority,[4] 2 or 16 December became the more likely dates for the election to be held.[20] On 8 October, Susana Díaz announced the Parliament's dissolution and confirmed 2 December as the regional election date.[5]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which will likely contest the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) Social democracy Susana Díaz
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Juan Manuel Moreno
Forward Andalusia (Adelante Andalucía) Left-wing populism Teresa Rodríguez
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) Liberalism Juan Marín

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout IULV AxSí Lead
electoPanel/electomania.es[p 1] 16–18 Sep 2018 ? ? 32.0
39		 20.6
24		 w.AA 20.9
22		 w.AA – 0.8
0		 1.4
0		 21.0
24		 0.9
0		 11.0
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 2] 17 Sep 2018 1,100 ? 27.1
32/34		 21.6
25/27		 w.AA 22.9
25/27		 w.AA – 1.1
0		 1.4
0		 21.0
23/25		 1.9
0		 4.2
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 3][p 4][p 5] 6–20 Jun 2018 3,519 ? 38.1
45/48		 19.8
21/24		 w.UP 21.5
22/25		 w.UP – – – 14.8
14/17		 – 16.6
electoPanel/electomania.es[p 6] 3–7 Jun 2018 ? ? 34.4
42		 21.6
27		 w.UP 17.6
16		 w.UP – – – 19.9
24		 – 12.8
SyM Consulting[p 7][p 8] 25–27 May 2018 4,650 64.9 31.5
36/41		 24.2
28/33		 18.1
18/21		 13.1
14/16		 7.5
5/6		 – – – – – 7.3
IDR.UGR/Podemos[p 9][p 10] 25 Jan–7 Mar 2018 3,200 ? 32.3
39		 20.8
28		 13.8
17		 17.5
19		 6.9
6		 – – – – – 11.5
NC Report[p 11][p 12] 25 Feb 2018 2,500 ? 33.3
42/43		 25.6
33/34		 14.6
14		 13.9
14		 8.0
5		 – – – – – 7.7
Deimos Estadística[p 13][p 14][p 15] 19–23 Feb 2018 1,287 ? 34.6
44		 25.4
30		 14.4
12		 19.7
21		 3.9
2		 – 1.7
0		 – – – 9.2
SW Demoscopia/Grupo Viva[p 16][p 17][p 18] 1–19 Feb 2018 6,000 ? 36.8
43/46		 22.5
24/27		 w.UP 19.3
22/24		 w.UP – – – 16.5
15/18		 – 14.3
OCG[p 19][p 20] 15 Jan–18 Feb 2018 1,400 ? 32.1
40		 27.4
35		 w.UP 13.3
16		 w.UP – – – 14.9
18		 – 4.7
CADPEA/UGR[p 21] 11 Jan–1 Feb 2018 1,200 60.1 34.1 18.3 10.5 19.8 8.3 – – – – – 14.3
GAD3/ABC[p 22][p 23] 19–23 Jan 2018 800 63 31.5
41		 23.0
28		 10.0
10		 23.0
26		 6.5
4		 – – – – – 8.5
Celeste-Tel[p 24][p 25] 4–18 Dec 2017 2,450 60.1 35.9
48		 24.8
31		 13.6
13		 11.8
13		 6.4
4		 – – – – – 11.1
Celeste-Tel[p 26][p 27] 3–17 Jul 2017 2,450 59.8 35.8
47		 25.5
31		 15.2
16		 9.9
11		 6.6
4		 – – – – – 10.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 28][p 29] 6–11 Mar 2017 1,200 57.7 34.9
45/46		 28.1
34/35		 14.5
14/15		 9.7
9/10		 5.1
3/4		 – – – – – 6.8
Celeste-Tel[p 30][p 31] 15–24 Feb 2017 2,400 ? 36.6
47		 26.5
35		 14.2
14		 9.8
10		 5.2
3		 – – – – – 10.1
Deimos Estadística[p 32] 11–19 Feb 2017 1,233 ? 39.1
49/53		 27.3
31/33		 14.8
14/15		 8.2
5/7		 6.3
2/4		 – – – – – 11.8
Bevents/PP[p 33][p 34] 6–16 Feb 2017 1,200 ? 30.9
38/39		 31.7
39/40		 14.7
14		 13.1
13		 6.6
4		 – – – – – 0.8
Celeste-Tel[p 35][p 36] 12–23 Dec 2016 3,600 57.4 34.4
43/45		 27.6
34/35		 15.8
17		 9.4
10		 5.5
3/4		 – – – – – 6.8
CADPEA/UGR[p 37] 3 Nov–12 Dec 2016 3,200 62.8 28.6 26.2 17.0 12.1 5.7 – – – – – 2.4
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 66.1 31.2
37		 33.5
41		 w.UP 13.6
13		 w.UP – 1.2
0		 0.2
0		 18.6
18		 – 2.3
Deimos Estadística[p 38] 22–25 Feb 2016 80,567 ? 33.7
41		 25.7
30		 18.1
19		 15.8
17		 4.3
2		 – – – – – 8.0
CADPEA/UGR[p 39] 18 Jan–9 Feb 2016 1,200 72.3 32.1 25.3 17.2 13.0 8.0 – – – – – 6.8
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 69.1 31.5
39		 29.1
35		 16.9
17		 13.8
14		 5.8
4		 – 0.9
0		 0.2
0		 – – 2.4
Celeste-Tel[p 40][p 41] 7–28 Sep 2015 1,200 ? 37.7
48		 25.8
31		 14.1
14		 12.0
13		 5.3
3		 – – – – – 11.9
CADPEA/UGR[p 42] 29 Jun–18 Jul 2015 1,200 70.5 32.5 21.9 19.2 14.1 6.0 – – – – – 10.6
2015 local elections 24 May 2015 N/A 61.2 34.3 30.2 4.4 5.4 11.2 3.9 0.2 0.3 – – 4.1
Metroscopia/El País[p 43][p 44] 11–12 May 2015 1,000 ? 37.1 20.0 15.1 15.5 6.7 – – – – – 17.1
2015 regional election 22 Mar 2015 N/A 62.3 35.4
47		 26.7
33		 14.9
15		 9.3
9		 6.9
5		 1.5
0		 0.8
0		 0.5
0		 – – 8.7

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 2 December 2018 Parliament of Andalusia election results
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)
People's Party (PP)
Forward Andalusia (Adelante Andalucía)1
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)
Equo (eQuo) New
Andalusia for Yes (AxSí) New
Blank ballots
Total 109±0
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Votes cast / turnout
Abstentions
Registered voters 6,541,722
Sources

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE–A PP AA Cs
% S % S % S % S
Almería
Cádiz
Córdoba
Granada
Huelva
Jaén
Málaga
Seville
Total
Sources

Notes

  1. ↑ Aggregated data for Podemos and IULV–CA in the 2015 election.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Electopanel Andalucía: PP, Adelante Andalucía y Ciudadanos empatados, pero Susana Díaz sigue por delante". electomania.es (in Spanish). 23 September 2018.
  2. ↑ "El PSOE sigue cayendo en Andalucía mientras Cs, PP y Podemos luchan por el segundo puesto". El Español (in Spanish). 17 September 2018.
  3. ↑ "El PSOE dobla al PP en escaños y refuerza su liderazgo en Andalucía". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 3 July 2018.
  4. ↑ "Macrobarómetro Andalucía Junio 2018". SW Demoscopia (in Spanish). 3 July 2018.
  5. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SW Demoscopia para Publicaciones del Sur. Junio 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 July 2018.
  6. ↑ "ElectoPanel Andalucía: El PSOE volvería a ganar". electomania.es (in Spanish). 16 June 2018.
  7. ↑ "Estimación Mayo 2018. Andalucía. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 2 June 2018.
  8. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta SyM Consulting. Mayo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 June 2018.
  9. ↑ "Teresa Rodríguez supera a la marca Podemos y podría gobernar con Susana Díaz". El Independiente (in Spanish). 17 May 2018.
  10. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Encuesta U. de Granada para Podemos. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 May 2018.
  11. ↑ "Ciudadanos crece también en Andalucía, pero sobre todo a costa del PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 February 2018.
  12. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo NC Report, Febrero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2018.
  13. ↑ "Encuesta Deimos: El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones y Ciudadanos no conseguiría sobrepasar al PP". Marbella Confidencial (in Spanish). 4 March 2018.
  14. ↑ "Un PSOE-A sin erosión volvería a ganar con holgura las andaluzas". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 4 March 2018.
  15. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo Deimos Estadística, Febrero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 March 2018.
  16. ↑ "El PSOE volvería a ganar en Andalucía y consolidaría su hegemonía". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 25 February 2018.
  17. ↑ "Macrosondeo Andalucía 28F". SW Demoscopia (in Spanish). 25 February 2018.
  18. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SW Demoscopia para Publicaciones del Sur, Febrero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2018.
  19. ↑ "El PSOE bajaría siete escaños en Andalucía mientras crecen PP y C's, según un sondeo del Observatorio de Ciudadanía y Gobernanza". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 28 February 2018.
  20. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo Observatorio de Ciudadanía y Gobernanza, Febrero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 February 2018.
  21. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno de 2018" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 26 February 2018.
  22. ↑ "El PSOE gana, pero PP y CS están a un escaño de alcanzar la mayoría para un cambio de gobierno". ABC (in Spanish). 28 February 2018.
  23. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo GAD3 para ABC, Enero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 February 2018.
  24. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría las andaluzas y el PP acusaría el crecimiento de Ciudadanos". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 13 January 2018.
  25. ↑ "El pacto entre PSOE y C's saldría reforzado si hubiera elecciones". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 13 January 2018.
  26. ↑ "El PSOE fija su hegemonía pese al viaje de ida y vuelta de Susana Díaz a Ferraz". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 22 July 2017.
  27. ↑ "El PSOE volvería a ganar, pero sigue lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 22 July 2017.
  28. ↑ "Díaz da el salto para liderar el PSOE mientras pierde votos en Andalucía". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 March 2017.
  29. ↑ "Encuesta NC Report marzo 2017" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 13 March 2017.
  30. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría en Andalucía y lograría mejorar sus resultados de marzo de 2015". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 28 February 2017.
  31. ↑ "El PSOE mantiene la mayoría en Andalucía mediada la legislatura". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 28 February 2017.
  32. ↑ "El PSOE al borde de la mayoría absoluta, podría reeditar el pacto y gobernar con C's en Andalucía". Marbella Confidencial (in Spanish). 28 February 2017.
  33. ↑ "La carrera hacia Ferraz le pasa factura (interna) a Susana Díaz". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 February 2017.
  34. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA, Febrero 2017. Sondeo Bevents (interno PP)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 February 2017.
  35. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría las andaluzas y podría repetir el acuerdo con C's". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 22 January 2017.
  36. ↑ "El PSOE tendría que volver a pactar para conservar el Gobierno andaluz". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 22 January 2017.
  37. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2017" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 18 January 2017.
  38. ↑ "El apoyo a Susana Díaz no frena a Ciudadanos, que subiría 8 escaños". Marbella Confidencial (in Spanish). 28 February 2016.
  39. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2016" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 25 February 2016.
  40. ↑ "Ciudadanos rentabiliza el apoyo al PSOE y ganaría tres diputados más en el Parlamento andaluz". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 18 October 2015.
  41. ↑ "Estudio sociopolítico autonómico. ANDALUCÍA, Septiembre de 2015" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 19 October 2015.
  42. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2015" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 27 July 2015.
  43. ↑ "Otras elecciones en Andalucía perjudicarían sobre todo al PP". El País (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  44. ↑ "Situación política en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
Other
  1. ↑ "En las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía podrán votar 6.541.722 electores" (PDF).
  2. ↑ "Susana Díaz será investida el jueves tras el acuerdo con Ciudadanos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 June 2015. Retrieved 3 July 2018.
  3. ↑ "Susana Díaz se aferra a Ciudadanos como "socio privilegiado" a largo plazo". Público (in Spanish). 5 June 2017. Retrieved 3 July 2018.
  4. 1 2 "La ejecutiva de Ciudadanos aprobará romper el pacto con Susana Díaz". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 7 September 2018. Retrieved 7 September 2018.
  5. 1 2 "Díaz: "Andalucía no merece la inestabilidad política que hay en el resto de España"". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 8 October 2018. Retrieved 8 October 2018.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia of 2007". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  7. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  8. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  9. 1 2 3 "Andalusia Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  10. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  11. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  12. ↑ "Government of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia Law of 2006". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006. Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  13. ↑ "Andalucía, próxima batalla electoral tras el seísmo Catalunya". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 22 January 2018. Retrieved 3 July 2018.
  14. ↑ "Susana Díaz se prepara para elecciones en otoño". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 1 April 2018. Retrieved 3 July 2018.
  15. ↑ "El adelanto electoral en Andalucía está cada día más cerca". ABC (in Spanish). 3 July 2018. Retrieved 3 July 2018.
  16. ↑ "Susana Díaz sopesa el adelanto electoral para aprovechar una coyuntura favorable". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  17. ↑ "Los partidos preparan las elecciones para otoño". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 8 July 2018. Retrieved 8 July 2018.
  18. ↑ "Susana Díaz baraja el 18 o el 25 de noviembre para el adelanto de las elecciones andaluzas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 September 2018. Retrieved 2 September 2018.
  19. ↑ "El órdago de Cs a Díaz aboca al adelanto electoral en Andalucía". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2 September 2018. Retrieved 2 September 2018.
  20. ↑ "Susana Díaz comunicará en unos días la fecha de las elecciones andaluzas". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 October 2018. Retrieved 4 October 2018.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.