Andalusian regional election, 2008

Andalusian regional election, 2008
9 March 2008
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 6,231,087 3.0%
Turnout 4,528,271 (72.7%)
2.0 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Manuel Chaves Javier Arenas Diego Valderas
Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA
Leader since 19 April 1990 18 April 2004 10 October 2000
Leader's seat Cádiz Almería Huelva
Last election 61 seats, 50.4% 37 seats, 31.8% 6 seats, 7.5%
Seats won 56 47 6
Seat change 5 10 0
Popular vote 2,178,296 1,730,154 317,562
Percentage 48.4% 38.5% 7.1%
Swing 2.0 pp 6.7 pp 0.4 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

 Elected President

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

The 2008 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 9 March 2008, to elect the 8th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2008 Spanish general election.

Incumbent President Manuel Chaves from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) was re-elected for a sixth term in office with a slightly reduced majority. Final results showed a major breakthrough by the People's Party (PP), which gained 10 seats from 37 to 47 and scored its best result in the community at the time. United Left (IULV–CA) remained stagnant with 6 seats, whereas the Andalusian Party (PA) suffered a major drop in support and failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time.

Overview

Background

With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of the Regional Government of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new Prime Minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.

The province of Almeria, due to a growth in population over both the total of Andalusia and the previous elections in 2004, won a seat for a total of 12 to the loss of Cordoba, which also remained at 12.

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Regional Government.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[2] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other.[1][3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[3][4][5]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election Decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 14 March 2004, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 March 2008. The election Decree was required to be published no later than 19 February 2008, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 13 April 2008.[1][3][4][5]

The President of the Regional Government had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1][6]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 9 March 2008 Parliament of Andalusia election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) 2,178,29648.41–1.95 56–5
People's Party (PP) 1,730,15438.45+6.67 47+10
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) 317,5627.06–0.45 6±0
Andalusian Coalition (CA)1 124,2432.76–5.53 0–5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 27,7120.62New 0±0
The Greens (LV) 25,8860.58New 0±0
Party of Almería (PdeAL) 14,8060.33New 0±0
Andalusian Convergence (CAnda) 7,8620.17New 0±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 6,0240.13New 0±0
Republican Left (IR) 4,8150.11+0.04 0±0
Humanist Party (PH) 3,9510.09–0.04 0±0
Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA) 2,7430.06New 0±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 2,7290.06New 0±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,7630.04–0.06 0±0
Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) 1,4770.03–0.01 0±0
Family and Life Party (PFyV) 8900.02New 0±0
Christian Positivist Party (PPCr) 7800.02New 0±0
Blank ballots 47,9201.06–0.33
Total 4,499,613 109±0
Valid votes 4,499,61399.37+0.02
Invalid votes 28,6580.63–0.02
Votes cast / turnout 4,528,27172.67–1.99
Abstentions 1,702,81627.33+1.99
Registered voters 6,231,087
Sources[7][8][9]
Popular vote
PSOE–A
 
 48.41%
PP
 
 38.45%
IULV–CA
 
 7.06%
CA
 
 2.76%
Others
 
 2.25%
Blank ballots
 
 1.06%
Seats
PSOE–A
 
 51.38%
PP
 
 43.12%
IULV–CA
 
 5.50%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE–A PP IULV–CA
% S % S % S
Almería 39.1 5 49.3 7 3.8 −
Cádiz 47.8 8 38.3 6 6.6 1
Córdoba 46.6 6 37.9 5 9.5 1
Granada 46.1 6 42.0 6 7.3 1
Huelva 52.0 6 35.2 4 7.6 1
Jaén 53.3 7 36.6 5 6.1 −
Málaga 43.2 7 43.6 8 7.1 1
Seville 54.4 11 31.7 6 7.3 1
Total 48.4 56 38.5 47 7.1 6
Sources[8][9]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture
Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot → 17 April 2008
Required majority → 55 out of 109 ☑
56 / 109
52 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
1 / 109
Sources[9]

Investiture of José Antonio Griñán

On 7 April 2009, Manuel Chaves resigned as regional President in order to become Third Deputy Prime Minister in the Second Zapatero Government, being succeeded as acting officeholder by Vice President Gaspar Zarrías. On 22 April, José Antonio Griñán was elected as new President by the Parliament of Andalusia.

Investiture
José Antonio Griñán (PSOE–A)
Ballot → 22 April 2009
Required majority → 55 out of 109 ☑
56 / 109
53 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
Absentees
0 / 109
Sources[9]

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. 1 2 3 "Chaves revalida la mayoría absoluta y los populares suben, según los primeros sondeos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 March 2008.
  2. 1 2 3 "Chaves revalida su mayoría absoluta e IU pierde un escaño". Expansión (in Spanish). 9 March 2008.
  3. ↑ "El PSOE obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía según un sondeo de Ipsos". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 9 March 2008.
  4. ↑ "Chaves revalida la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 1 March 2008.
  5. ↑ "Arenas sigue recortando distancia y deja a Chaves al filo de perder la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 2 March 2008.
  6. ↑ "El PSOE mantiene su fortaleza, con nueve puntos de ventaja sobre el PP". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 1 March 2008.
  7. ↑ "El PSOE y el PP se estancan en porcentaje de votos a costa de la ligera subida de las minorías". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 February 2008.
  8. ↑ "Manuel Chaves conservará el poder aunque aumenta el descontento por su gestión". El Mundo (in Spanish). 24 February 2008.
  9. ↑ "Intención de voto en Andalucía". El Mundo (in Spanish). 24 February 2008.
  10. ↑ "El PP crece y sigue recortando distancias con respecto al PSOE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 18 February 2008.
  11. ↑ "El PP sube siete puntos respecto a 2004, aunque el PSOE repite victoria". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 11 February 2008.
  12. ↑ "El PSOE aumenta su victoria electoral en el nuevo sondeo de Cepes". El País (in Spanish). 19 February 2008.
  13. ↑ "El PSOE revalidará la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 15 February 2008.
  14. ↑ "Pulsómetro 18/02/2008". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 February 2008.
  15. ↑ "Espectacular subida de Coalición Andalucista en la encuesta de Antena 3 y Onda Cero". Andalucía Sur, El Diario Andaluz (in Spanish). 6 February 2008.
  16. ↑ "Pre-electoral elecciones generales y al Parlamento de Andalucía, 2008 (Estudio nº 2750. Enero-Febrero 2008)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 15 February 2008.
  17. ↑ "El PP crece seis diputados aunque Chaves revalidaría la mayoría absoluta, según el CIS". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 16 February 2008.
  18. ↑ "El PSOE perdería la mayoría absoluta y sacaría 8 puntos al PP, según una encuesta de Cepes". EuropaSur (in Spanish). 28 January 2008.
  19. ↑ "La encuesta de CEPES da sólo ocho puntos de ventaja al PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 29 January 2008.
  20. ↑ "Encuesta en Andalucía". El Blog de Rogelio Orts (in Spanish). 28 January 2008.
  21. ↑ "Un sondeo del PP asegura que el PSOE perderá la mayoría absoluta en el Parlamento". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 16 January 2008.
  22. 1 2 "Dos sondeos discrepan de la mayoría absoluta de los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 16 January 2008.
  23. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2007" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 21 January 2008.
  24. ↑ "Chaves revalida su mayoría absoluta, el PP sube y bajan las minorías". El País (in Spanish). 22 January 2008.
  25. ↑ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2007 (Diciembre, 2007)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 14 December 2007.
  26. ↑ "El PSOE andaluz revalidaría la mayoría absoluta, según el barómetro del IESA". El País (in Spanish). 15 December 2007.
  27. ↑ "Un sondeo del PA da también la mayoría absoluta a los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 16 September 2007.
  28. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2007" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 12 September 2007.
  29. ↑ "Una encuesta vaticina que el PSOE sacará 15 puntos al PP en las autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 13 September 2007.
  30. ↑ "El PSOE aventaja en 15,3 puntos al PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 13 September 2007.
  31. ↑ "El PSOE perdería cinco escaños pero mantendría la mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 8 March 2007.
  32. ↑ "Un sondeo atribuye al PSOE una ventaja de 15 puntos sobre el PP en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2007.
  33. ↑ "El PSOE mantiene la mayoría absoluta tras el referéndum del Estatuto". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2007.
  34. ↑ "Un sondeo del PP quita al PSOE la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 26 February 2007.
  35. ↑ "El PSOE revalidaría su mayoría absoluta en Andalucía, según el Pulsómetro". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 6 February 2007.
  36. ↑ "El PSOE mantiene una ventaja de 17 puntos". El País (in Spanish). 7 February 2007.
  37. ↑ "El PSOE y el PP reducen su distancia, según una encuesta". El País (in Spanish). 18 December 2006.
  38. ↑ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2006 (Enero, 2007)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 12 January 2007.
  39. ↑ "El 49% de los andaluces está seguro de que votará en el referéndum del Estatuto". El País (in Spanish). 13 January 2007.
  40. 1 2 "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2006" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 26 January 2007.
  41. ↑ "El PSOE-A mantendría su hegemonía". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 January 2007.
  42. ↑ "El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones pero baja tres puntos mientras el PP sube cinco". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 May 2006.
  43. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2006" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). July 2006.
  44. ↑ "El PSOE andaluz saca 13 puntos de ventaja al PP, según un sondeo". El País (in Spanish). 12 June 2006.
  45. ↑ "El PP recorta la distancia con el PSOE hasta los 8,2 puntos, pero no impide su mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 May 2006.
  46. 1 2 3 "Un sondeo para Vocento sitúa al PSOE al borde de perder la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2006.
  47. ↑ "El PSOE saca al PP en Andalucía 13,5 puntos de ventaja, según un sondeo". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2006.
  48. ↑ "El PP se coloca a 7,5 puntos del PSOE, que perdería la mayoría absoluta en la Junta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 16 February 2006.
  49. ↑ "Una encuesta de las empresas de economía social da una diferencia de 11 puntos del PSOE sobre el PP". El País (in Spanish). 21 February 2006.
  50. ↑ "El PSOE baja y el PP sube". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 21 February 2006.
  51. ↑ "El PSOE volvería a ganar con un escaño más y le saca veinte puntos de ventaja al PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 22 January 2006.
  52. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2005" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 10 February 2006.
  53. ↑ "El 78% de los andaluces cree que el Gobierno central favorece a unas comunidades más que a otras". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 11 February 2006.
  54. ↑ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2005 (Enero, 2006)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 19 January 2006.
  55. ↑ "Una encuesta otorga el 47,8% de los votos al PSOE, que conservaría la mayoría absoluta". El País (in Spanish). 20 January 2006.
  56. ↑ "El PSOE aventaja al PP en 15 puntos, según un sondeo de 'El Correo'". El País (in Spanish). 12 December 2005.
  57. ↑ "El PP, único partido que crece y recorta su distancia con el PSOE a 10,5 puntos". ABC Córdoba (in Spanish). 28 November 2005.
  58. ↑ "El PSOE baja tres puntos en intención de voto, pero el PP baja aún más". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 2 October 2005.
  59. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2005" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). July 2005.
  60. ↑ "El PSOE baja 2 puntos y el PP sube 1,3 pero la distancia es de 12 puntos en intención de voto". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 10 July 2005.
  61. ↑ "El PSOE conserva su ventaja sobre el PP, IU-CA sigue igual y el PA baja". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 8 May 2005.
  62. ↑ "Todos de acuerdo: El PSOE repetiría la actual mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 March 2005.
  63. ↑ "El PSOE saca al PP 18,5 puntos de ventaja en intención directa de voto en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2005.
  64. 1 2 "El 57% de los andaluces cree que debería haber alternancia en el Gobierno, según una encuesta del PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 26 February 2005.
  65. ↑ "El PSOE obtendría el 51,6% de los votos y subiría un punto desde el 14-M". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 22 February 2005.
  66. ↑ "El PSOE consolida su hegemonía política mientras que el PP registra un leve repunte". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2005.
  67. ↑ "La encuesta del IESA dice que el PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones con mayoría absoluta propio". El País (in Spanish). 15 January 2005.
  68. ↑ "El PSOE revalidaría la mayoría absoluta si ahora se celebraran elecciones autonómicas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 January 2005.
  69. ↑ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2004 (Enero, 2005)" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 14 January 2005.
  70. ↑ "El PP recorta diferencias con el PSOE, según una encuesta popular". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 November 2004.
  71. ↑ "El PSOE tendría mayoría absoluta de nuevo, según un sondeo propio". El País (in Spanish). 14 November 2004.
  72. ↑ "Un sondeo socialista dice que repetirán la mayoría absoluta y que Chaves es el líder más valorado". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 14 November 2004.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia of 2007". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  2. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  3. 1 2 3 "Andalusia Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  4. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  5. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  6. ↑ "Government of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia Law of 2006". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006. Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  7. ↑ "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2008. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Junta of Andalusia. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  8. 1 2 "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 9 March 2008" (PDF). juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Andalusia. 1 April 2008. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  9. 1 2 3 4 "Parliament of Andalusia elections since 1982". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 25 September 2017.

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