Balearic regional election, 2015

Balearic regional election, 2015
24 May 2015
All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands
30 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 766,383 5.5%
Turnout 437,838 (57.1%)
1.7 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader José Ramón Bauzà Francina Armengol Alberto Jarabo
Party PP PSIB–PSOE Podemos/Podem
Leader since 11 September 2009 25 February 2012 14 February 2015
Leader's seat Mallorca Mallorca Mallorca
Last election 35 seats, 46.7% 19 seats, 24.9% Did not contest
Seats won 20 15 10
Seat change 15 4 10
Popular vote 123,183 83,804 63,489
Percentage 28.5% 19.4% 14.7%
Swing 18.2 pp 5.5 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Biel Barceló Jaume Font Xavier Pericay
Party Més–MpM El Pi C's
Leader since 27 May 2006 2 November 2012 13 April 2015
Leader's seat Mallorca Mallorca Mallorca
Last election 5 seats, 9.5%[lower-alpha 1] 0 seats, 6.0%[lower-alpha 2] 0 seats, 0.3%
Seats won 9 3 2
Seat change 4 3 2
Popular vote 66,199 34,237 27,589
Percentage 15.3% 7.9% 6.4%
Swing 5.8 pp 1.9 pp 6.1 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of the Balearic Islands
President before election

José Ramón Bauzà
PP

 Elected President

Francina Armengol
PSIB–PSOE

The 2015 Balearic regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of the Balearic Islands. All 59 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

All in all, the election resulted in the loss of the parliamentary majority by the People's Party (PP), together with its worst election result ever in the islands. The Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB) also saw losses, but could form a coalition government, led by socialist Francina Armengol, together with More for Majorca (Més) and More for Menorca (MpM), obtaining confidence and supply support from We Can (Podem) and the People for Formentera (GxF) deputy. It was the first time that left-wing parties had a majority of seats in the Balearic parliament, with previous PSIB-led governments having required the support of centrist Majorcan Union (UM) to rule in 1999 and 2007. Opposition, aside from PP, was formed by Proposta per les Illes (El Pi) and Citizens (C's), both obtaining their whole representation in Majorca, but being close to winning seats in Ibiza and Menorca, respectively—in the latter, Ciutadella de Menorca People's Union represented the C's Menorcan branch.

Overview

Background

29 September 2013 demonstration.

In the 2011 election, the People's Party (PP), led by José Ramón Bauzà, regained an absolute majority, and Bauzà was elected president on 15 June 2015. A series of controversial and unpopular decrees and laws proceeded, the most discussed ones involving the language of the Balearic Islands—Catalan in its island dialects—and the education. These generated record-attendance demonstrations, the most important one on 29 September 2013, when more than 70,000 people demonstrated in Palma protesting, amongst others, against the changes in the language decree. It established more school-hours in Spanish and English, when the majority of public schools and their teachers were not prepared to carry it out.[1]

The main opposition party, the Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB), elected Francina Armengol as its new leader in February 2012 in substitution of former President of the Balearic Islands Francesc Antich.[2]

During the 2011–2015 legislature, Agreement for Majorca (ExM) joined the coalition between the Socialist Party of Majorca (PSM) and InitiativeGreens (IV) in 2013. It was renamed as More for Majorca (Més) in October 2013, with PSM leader Biel Barceló as its Secretary General.[3] Its sister party Socialist Party of Menorca formed the coalition More for Menorca (MpM) with the Greens of Menorca and Equo Menorca in July 2014.[4]

The disbanded Majorcan Union (UM) had resulted in two parties with similar political views in the 2011 election: Convergence for the Isles (CxI)—the political heir of UM—and Regionalist League of the Balearic Islands (IB–Lliga). None of them obtained representation in the Parliament. In November 2012, they both united with other local parties to create a new party called Proposal for the Isles (El Pi) to contest in the 2015 election not only in Mallorca, but also in Menorca and Ibiza. Jaume Font, former PP member and IB–Lliga leader, was elected as its president.[5]

In addition, the Spanish politics were observing the growth of new parties like We Can (Podem) in the left and young parties like Citizens (C's) in the center-right. In their regional branches, Alberto Jarabo was elected as the Secretary General of Podem in February 2015,[6] while Xavier Pericay was elected as C's candidate in April 2015.[7]

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Balearic Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Government.[8] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Balearic Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Balearic people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[9]

The 59 members of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of seats: 33 for Mallorca, 13 for Menorca, 12 for Ibiza and 1 for Formentera.[8][10]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[10][11][12]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election Decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election Decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[8][10][11][12]

The President of the Government had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Balearic Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a sixty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[8]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which contested the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy José Ramón Bauzà
Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE)[lower-alpha 3] Social democracy Francina Armengol
More for Majorca–More for Menorca (Més–MpM) Democratic socialism, Left-wing nationalism Biel Barceló
Republican Left–Ibiza Yes (ER–Eivissa Sí) Democratic socialism, Left-wing nationalism Josep Antoni Prats
Proposal for the Isles (El Pi) Liberalism, Balearic regionalism Jaume Font
Let's Win the Balearic Islands (Guanyem) Socialism, Communism Manel Carmona
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) Social liberalism, Radical centrism Natalia Prieto
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) Liberalism Xavier Pericay
We Can (Podemos/Podem) Democratic socialism, Left-wing populism Alberto Jarabo

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 30 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Parliament of the Balearic Islands election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 123,18328.52–18.16 20–15
Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE) 83,80419.41–5.48 15–4
Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE)1 81,79818.94–5.50 14–4
People for Formentera+PSOE (GxF+PSOE) 2,0060.46+0.01 1±0
More (Més–MpM) 66,19915.32+5.82 9+4
More for Majorca (Més)2 59,61713.80+5.19 6+2
More for Menorca (MpM)3 6,5821.52+0.48 3+2
We Can (Podemos/Podem) 63,48914.70New 10+10
Proposal for the Isles (El Pi)4 34,2377.93+1.95 3+3
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 27,5896.39+6.07 2+2
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 25,6515.94+5.74 2+2
Citizens of Menorca–Ciutadella de Menorca People's Union (CMe–UPCM) 1,9380.45+0.33 0±0
Let's Win the Balearic Islands (Guanyem) 8,7402.02–1.49 0±0
Let's Win the Balearic Islands (Guanyem)5 7,3031.69–1.45 0±0
Left of Menorca–United Left (EM–EU) 1,4370.33–0.04 0±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 3,8960.90–1.18 0±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 3,4760.80+0.41 0±0
People for Ibiza (GxE) 1,6800.39New 0±0
More Ibiza–Democratic Corsairs (MEC) 1,0420.24New 0±0
EPIC Ibiza Citizen Movement (mcEPIC) 1,0000.23New 0±0
Independent Social Group (ASI) 9530.22–0.04 0±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 8190.19New 0±0
Family and Life Party (PFyV) 8020.19+0.08 0±0
Island Alternative (AL–in)6 7940.18–0.24 0±0
Republican Left–Ibiza Yes (ER–Eivissa Sí) 7660.18–1.09 0±0
Spanish Liberal Project (PLIE) 5310.12–0.01 0±0
Renewal Party of Ibiza and Formentera (PREF) 3960.09+0.06 0±0
Commitment for Formentera (CompromísFormentera) 3830.09New 0±0
Blank ballots 8,0801.87–1.05
Total 431,859 59±0
Valid votes 431,85998.63+0.22
Invalid votes 5,9791.37–0.22
Votes cast / turnout 437,83857.13–1.67
Abstentions 328,54542.87+1.67
Registered voters 766,383
Sources[13][14]
Popular vote
PP
 
 28.52%
PSIB–PSOE
 
 19.41%
Més–MpM
 
 15.32%
Podem
 
 14.70%
El Pi
 
 7.93%
C's
 
 6.39%
Guanyem
 
 2.02%
Others
 
 3.59%
Blank ballots
 
 1.87%
Seats
PP
 
 33.90%
PSIB–PSOE
 
 25.42%
Podem
 
 16.95%
Més–MpM
 
 15.25%
El Pi
 
 5.08%
C's
 
 3.39%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSIB Podem Més El Pi C's MpM GxF
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Formentera 26.7 − 0.0 − 59.3 1
Ibiza 32.9 5 23.7 4 17.3 3 5.7 −
Mallorca 27.8 10 18.1 7 14.6 5 17.2 6 8.8 3 7.4 2
Menorca 30.7 5 22.5 3 13.9 2 3.3 − 5.2 − 17.5 3
Total 28.5 20 18.9 14 14.7 10 13.8 6 7.9 3 6.4 2 1.5 3 0.5 1

Aftermath

Investiture
Francina Armengol (PSIB)
Ballot → 30 June 2015
Required majority → 30 out of 59 ☑
34 / 59
22 / 59
3 / 59
Absentees
0 / 59
Sources[14]

Notes

  1. ↑ Data for PSM–IV–ExM in the 2003 election.
  2. ↑ Aggregated data for IB–Lliga, CxI and UMe in the 2011 election.
  3. ↑ Includes Gent per Formentera in Formentera.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. ↑ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  3. ↑ "Cantabria: Ignacio Diego dependerá del PRC o de los socialistas para gobernar". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ↑ "Islas Baleares. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES, Mayo 2015. Sondeo IBES". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ↑ "Ciudadanos tendrá la llave del Govern". El Mundo (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
  7. ↑ "Caminant cap a les eleccions (V): Un escenari més obert que mai" (PDF). Gadeso (in Catalan). 19 April 2015.
  8. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES, Abril 2015. Sondeo Gadeso". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 April 2015.
  9. ↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de las Islas Baleares (Estudio nº 3068. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  10. ↑ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  11. ↑ "Empate de las opciones de derecha e izquierda a menos de dos meses de las elecciones". Última Hora (in Spanish). 5 April 2015.
  12. ↑ "Encuesta de voto al Parlamento Balear Abril-15". IBES (in Spanish). 5 April 2015.
  13. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES, Marzo 2015. Sondeo IBES". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 April 2015.
  14. ↑ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  15. ↑ "Islas Baleares: El PP pierde fuelle, aunque sigue siendo el partido con más respaldo". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  16. ↑ "Islas Baleares. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  17. ↑ "El futuro Govern, a merced de los pactos postelectorales". Última Hora (in Spanish). 22 February 2015.
  18. ↑ "Barómetro Sociopolítico feb15". IBES (in Spanish). 21 February 2015.
  19. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES, Febrero 2015. Sondeo IBES". Electograph (in Spanish). 22 February 2015.
  20. ↑ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  21. ↑ "Podemos será imprescindible para que la izquierda desaloje al PP del Govern". Última Hora (in Spanish). 4 October 2014.
  22. ↑ "Sondeo electoral en Baleares. Octubre14 (Parlamento)". IBES (in Spanish). 5 October 2014.
  23. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES / ILLES BALEARS, Septiembre 2014. IBES". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 October 2014.
  24. ↑ "Podemos logra entrar en el Parlament, el PSIB se hunde y el PP pierde la mayoría". Última Hora (in Spanish). 29 June 2014.
  25. ↑ "Pronóstico elecciones autonómicas (Junio 2014)". IBES (in Spanish). 29 June 2014.
  26. ↑ "ISLAS BALEARES / ILLES BALEARS, Junio 2014. IBES". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 June 2014.
  27. ↑ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  28. ↑ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  29. ↑ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  30. ↑ "El PP se aleja de la mayoría absoluta en Balears en el ecuador de la legislatura". Última Hora (in Spanish). 30 June 2013.
  31. ↑ "Sondeo Baleares junio2013". IBES (in Spanish). 23 July 2013.
  32. 1 2 3 "Barómetro de Opinión sobre la situación general de la Comunidad Balear. 5ª oleada. Jun13" (PDF). IBES (in Spanish). 23 July 2013.
  33. ↑ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  34. ↑ "Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  35. ↑ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  36. ↑ "El Partido Popular perdería la mayoría absoluta tras un año y medio en el Govern". Última Hora (in Spanish). 29 December 2012.
  37. ↑ "Encuesta sobre el primer año de Gobierno-Bauzá (Junio12)". IBES (in Spanish). 30 December 2012.
  38. ↑ "Barómetro de Opinión sobre la situación general de la Comunidad Balear. 4ª oleada. Dic12" (PDF). IBES (in Spanish). 30 December 2012.
  39. ↑ "El PP bajaría de 35 a 33 diputados tras el primer año del Govern de Bauzá". Última Hora (in Spanish). 17 June 2012.
  40. ↑ "Encuesta sobre el primer año de Gobierno-Bauzá (Junio12)". IBES (in Spanish). 18 June 2012.
  41. ↑ "Encuesta de Opinión sobre el primer año de gobierno" (PDF). IBES (in Spanish). 18 June 2012.
  42. ↑ "El PP balear volvería a ganar las elecciones a pesar del rechazo a su gestión". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
  43. ↑ "Posicionament ciutadà (XXXIV). Si ara hi hagués eleccions..." (PDF). Gadeso (in Catalan). 18 March 2012.
  44. ↑ "Los ciudadanos dan un aprobado raspado al Govern de Bauzá en sus primeros cien días". Última Hora (in Spanish). 24 September 2011.
Other
  1. ↑ "La marea verde colapsa Palma en la mayor manifestación de la historia de Mallorca". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 29 September 2013. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  2. ↑ "García-Page, nuevo Secretario General de Castilla La Mancha, Francina Armengol liderará a los socialistas baleares y César Luena dirigirá la Federación riojana". PSOE (in Spanish). 25 February 2012. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  3. ↑ "MÉS se transforma en un solo proyecto político liderado por Biel Barceló". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). 26 October 2013. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  4. ↑ "Nace MÉS per Menorca, como 'un nuevo movimiento menorquinista y ecologista'". El Mundo (in Spanish). 21 July 2014. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  5. ↑ "Nace Proposta per les Illes, un partido "balearista, centrista y defensor del catalán"". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2 November 2012. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  6. ↑ "Jarabo, líder de Podemos en Balears". Última Hora (in Spanish). 14 February 2015. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  7. ↑ "Xavier Pericay, 'número 1' de Ciudadanos al Parlament balear". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 April 2015. Retrieved 16 November 2017.
  8. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy of the Balearic Islands of 2007". Organic Law No. 1 of 28 February 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 September 2017.
  9. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  10. 1 2 3 "Balearic Islands Autonomous Community Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 8 of 26 November 1986. Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 September 2017.
  11. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  12. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  13. ↑ "Parliament of the Balearic Islands election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of the Balearic Islands. 4 June 2015. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  14. 1 2 "Parliament of the Balearic Islands and Island Council elections since 1979". historiaelectoral.com (in Catalan). Electoral History. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
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