Andalusian regional election, 2015

Andalusian regional election, 2015
22 March 2015
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 6,462,627 1.1%
Turnout 4,026,282 (62.3%)
1.5 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Susana Díaz Juan Manuel Moreno Teresa Rodríguez
Party PSOE–A PP Podemos
Leader since 7 September 2013 1 March 2014 9 February 2015
Leader's seat Seville Málaga Cádiz
Last election 47 seats, 39.6% 50 seats, 40.7% Did not contest
Seats won 47 33 15
Seat change 0 17 15
Popular vote 1,411,278 1,065,685 592,133
Percentage 35.4% 26.7% 14.9%
Swing 4.2 pp 14.0 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Juan Marín Antonio Maíllo
Party C's IULV–CA
Leader since 6 February 2015 16 June 2013
Leader's seat Seville Seville
Last election Did not contest 12 seats, 11.3%
Seats won 9 5
Seat change 9 7
Popular vote 369,896 274,426
Percentage 9.3% 6.9%
Swing New party 4.4 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election

Susana Díaz
PSOE–A

 Elected President

Susana Díaz
PSOE–A

The 2015 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 22 March 2015, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

While the election was not scheduled until 2016, regional President Susana Díaz chose to terminate the coalition agreement between her Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) and United Left (IULV–CA), dissolving the Parliament and calling a snap election for 22 March 2015.[1] Andalusia had been traditionally considered a PSOE stronghold, being the only region in Spain in which no other party had led the regional government.

The PSOE–A regained first place from a declining People's Party (PP). Suffering from voters' anger at Mariano Rajoy's national government management of the economic crisis and the corruption scandals affecting the party nationwide, the PP scored its worst result since 1990. The election also saw a strong performance by newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We can") and Citizens (C's), which faced their first electoral test since the 2014 European Parliament election.[2][3] IULV–CA was decimated by Podemos' surge and obtained its worst historical showing.

After the election, the PP announced it would block any PSOE attempt to form a government,[4] a shock to many after the party had assured during the electoral campaign that it would allow the most-voted party to access government.[5] Podemos and C's remained reluctant to lend support to Susana Díaz's investiture,[6][7] whereas IU was not willing to align with the Socialists again after their previous alliance broke up.[8] In the end, however, after the 2015 Spanish regional and municipal elections were held, C's agreed to support Díaz investiture on less harsher conditions than initially required, in order to end the parliamentary deadlock and prevent a new election.[9]

Overview

Background

Despite losing in the 2012 election to the People's Party (PP), which won a regional election in Andalusia for the first time since the establishment of the autonomous community, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under José Antonio Griñán was able to remain in office for a ninth consecutive term thanks to the support of United Left (IU), with whom the Socialists formed a coalition government.

In July 2013, President Griñán announced his intention to resign from office in order to "preserve the [regional] Government from the erosion of the ERE scandal", a large slush fund corruption scandal involving former leading figures of the regional PSOE's branch, including former Development Minister Magdalena Álvarez, with former Andalusía President Manuel Chaves and himself being accused of knowing and concealing such a plot. Griñán was succeeded by Susana Díaz as President of the regional government.[10][11]

Despite the apparent parliamentary comfort of the ruling coalition, friction between both PSOE and IU remained an issue throughout the entire legislature, especially after Susana Díaz took over the government in September 2013. In April 2014, an episode of IU's Housing Counsellor awarding several government houses to homeless families without the President's consent resulted in the Counsellor seeing her competences removed and in the coalition pact nearly breaking up.[12]

Susana Díaz took over from José Antonio Griñán as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia on 7 September 2013.

In January 2015, tension between both coalition partners had grown up after IU had proposed to hold a referendum among its members set for June 2015 to decide whether to remain or withdraw from the government.[13] Susana Díaz declared that "we need a government which enjoys a stability that currently does not exist", opening the door for a snap election to be held in short time.[14][15] On 20 January Díaz met all eight PSOE provincial leaders in order to seek support within the party for a snap election to be held in March 2015, which she received,[16] with the PSOE national leadership taking for granted that a snap election would be held by March 2015. By 21 January mutual attacks between both PSOE and IU, accusing each other of breaching the coalition agreement, made it clear that the only solution to the ongoing governmental crisis would come by the calling of a snap election.[17]

On 22 January, after President Díaz said "this cannot be delayed any longer", it was announced that an extraordinary parliamentary plenary session would be held on Monday, 26 January, where she announced the dissolving of parliament and the subsequent calling of a snap election for 22 March.[1][18][19] Díaz herself had previously declared, during a PSOE rally in Seville, that "It is time for the Andalusian people to speak" and "We shall obtain the [people's] confidence in the ballots".[20] Spanish media speculated that the snap election came as a result of different factors; namely, Susana Díaz's private aspirations to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party's leadership—despite her publicly refusing it—,[21][22] as well as both Podemos' surge in opinion polls and to prevent the party's exhaustion after all 2015 electoral calls—local and regional in May, Catalan in September and general in autumn—, in a time when opinion polls were still favorable to the PSOE in Andalusia.[23]

On 17 February 2015, one month short of the election, the Spanish Supreme Court charged former Andalusia Presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán in the ERE scandal for their possible responsibility in the misuse of the misappropriated public funds.[24] The PSOE insisted on the same day that it would not ask Chaves and Griñán to give up their seats in the Spanish Congress and Senate, despite both incumbent President Susana Díaz and PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez having assured in the past that they would do so in the event of both of them being charged.

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Regional Government.[25] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Andalusians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[26]

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[27] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other.[25][28]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[28][29][30]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election Decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 25 March 2012, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 25 March 2016. The election Decree was required to be published no later than 1 March 2016, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 24 April 2016.[25][28][29][30]

The President of the Regional Government had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[25][31]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which contested the election:

Parties and coalitions Ideology Candidate
People's Party (PP) Conservatism, Christian democracy Juan Manuel Moreno
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) Social democracy Susana Díaz
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) Socialism, Communism Antonio Maíllo
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) Social liberalism, Radical centrism Martín de la Herrán
Andalusian Party (PA) Social democracy, Andalusian nationalism Antonio Jesús Ruiz
We Can (Podemos) Democratic socialism, Left-wing populism Teresa Rodríguez
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) Liberalism Juan Marín

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 March 2015 Parliament of Andalusia election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) 1,411,27835.41–4.15 47±0
People's Party (PP) 1,065,68526.74–13.93 33–17
We Can (Podemos) 592,13314.86New 15+15
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 369,8969.28New 9+9
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) 274,4266.89–4.46 5–7
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 76,8391.93–1.42 0±0
Andalusian Party (PA) 60,6451.52–0.99 0±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 31,9580.80+0.57 0±0
Vox (Vox) 18,4220.46New 0±0
United Free Citizens (CILUS) 11,2770.28New 0±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 4,7590.12+0.06 0±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 3,5660.09New 0±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 3,5280.09–0.02 0±0
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 1,9840.05+0.01 0±0
Blank Seats (EB) 1,1550.03–0.12 0±0
People's Welfare Party (PBG) 4980.01New 0±0
Socialists and Republicans (SyR) 4800.01–0.01 0±0
Labour and Justice Party (PTJ) 3890.01New 0±0
Local and Global (LyG) 3170.01New 0±0
Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA) 3020.01+0.01 0±0
Neo-Democrats (Neodemócratas) 2780.01New 0±0
Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO) 2540.01–0.02 0±0
Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA) 1820.00±0.00 0±0
Change It (Cámbialo) 1650.00New 0±0
Blank ballots 54,7171.37+0.46
Total 3,985,133 109±0
Valid votes 3,985,13398.98–0.44
Invalid votes 41,1491.02+0.44
Votes cast / turnout 4,026,28262.30+1.52
Abstentions 2,436,34537.70–1.52
Registered voters 6,462,627
Sources[32][33][34][35][36]
Popular vote
PSOE–A
 
 35.41%
PP
 
 26.74%
Podemos
 
 14.86%
C's
 
 9.28%
IULV–CA
 
 6.89%
UPyD
 
 1.93%
PA
 
 1.52%
Others
 
 2.00%
Blank ballots
 
 1.37%
Seats
PSOE–A
 
 43.12%
PP
 
 30.28%
Podemos
 
 13.76%
C's
 
 8.27%
IULV–CA
 
 4.59%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE–A PP Podemos C's IULV–CA
% S % S % S % S % S
Almería 32.9 5 36.9 5 11.0 1 9.4 1 4.2 −
Cádiz 31.6 6 24.0 4 18.9 3 10.4 1 6.7 1
Córdoba 35.9 5 27.3 4 12.6 1 7.7 1 10.0 1
Granada 34.6 5 30.0 4 13.9 2 9.6 1 6.1 1
Huelva 41.0 6 26.4 3 13.2 1 7.2 1 6.2 −
Jaén 42.7 6 29.1 4 11.1 1 6.0 – 5.7 −
Málaga 30.1 6 28.3 5 15.1 3 11.8 2 7.4 1
Seville 38.1 8 21.9 4 16.6 3 9.2 2 7.0 1
Total 35.4 47 26.7 33 14.9 15 9.3 9 6.9 5
Sources[33][34][35][36]

Aftermath

The result of the election was a hung parliament, with the PSOE winning the same number of seats it had previously—47. Still, it performed slightly better than what most polls had predicted, despite falling eight seats short of the absolute majority they had set as an objective. The PP plummeted to just 33 seats after scoring its best ever result in the 2012 election, suffering the burden of PM Mariano Rajoy's governance in the Spanish Government. This represented the party's worst result at a regional election in Andalusia since the 1990 election, falling below the 30% threshold. The main beneficiaries of the election were parties alternative to the considered "traditional" ones — Podemos and Citizens, both of them, despite polling slightly lower than what early polls predicted, winning seats for the first time in the Parliament of Andalusia, achieving an historical record for any party standing from zero at an election of any kind.

The post-election scenario, however, turned more difficult than what was originally expected.[37] IU collapse from 12 to 5 seats turned it into a minority force in the new parliament unable to decide a future government, preventing PSOE from even attempting a renewal of the PSOE-IU government of 2012-2015 (a scenario which IU itself refused, due to the early dissolution of the coalition agreement).[8][38] The PP, initially widely expected to abstain in Susana Díaz's investiture voting in order to allow "a government of the most-voted party", announced instead that it would vote against Díaz's investiture.[4][39]

Newcomers Podemos and Citizens thus became decisive in the election of any future cabinet, yet remained reluctant to support a new PSOE government. The parties presented a series of harsh pre-agreement conditions regarding political corruption and other issues, for the PSOE to comply in order to allow for agreement talks:[7]

  • Podemos offered to support Díaz's investiture only if she forced the resignation of former Presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán (which at the time were MPs in the Congress of Deputies and Senate, respectively) because of their responsibility in the ERE scandal; that political parties were turned into subsidiary responsible for ensuring that misused public money was returned; that the Andalusian Government cancelled all agreements or accounts with financial institutions running evictions, as well as prompting legislation to prevent any future eviction; and finally, the readmission of personnel in education, health, equality and social welfare sectors fired as a result of the spending cuts, with a decrease in the number of party officials and advisers. In the event those conditions were not accepted, Podemos would vote against Díaz.[40]
  • Citizens (C's) demanded the immediate resignation of Chaves and Griñán before entering any talks with Susana Díaz's party.[41][42] Party leader Albert Rivera, however, opened the door to allowing Díaz's investiture if that condition was met, but ruled out any possible entry into a future Díaz's government.[43]
  • The People's Party (PP) offered to easen Susana Díaz's investiture only if the PSOE allowed "the most-voted party" to rule in the municipalities after the May local elections,[44] as an attempt to prevent left-wing coalitions from robbing the People's Party of the governments of the region's provincial capitals.

Susana Díaz immediately ruled out the PP conditions, suggesting party regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno to "act with responsibility, without pretending weird exchanges that the people would not understand".[45] Moreno, in response, accused Díaz of "arrogancy" and told her that "with 47 seats one can't pretend to negotiate as if one had 55 [an absolute majority of seats]".[46]

Susana Díaz's investiture for a second term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia remained unclear for a month. She explicitly expressed her intention to form a minority government, ruling out a coalition with any other party;[47] however, until June 2015 she was not able to prevent all other parties from blocking her election. Andalusian law established that if no candidate was elected President in the two months following the first investiture vote, then Parliament was to be automatically dissolved for a new election to be held no later than September 2015.[48][49][50]

Investiture
Susana Díaz (PSOE–A)
Ballot → 5 May 2015 8 May 2015 14 May 2015 11 June 2015
Required majority → 55 out of 109 ☒ Simple ☒ Simple ☒ Simple ☑
47 / 109
47 / 109
47 / 109
56 / 109
62 / 109
62 / 109
62 / 109
51 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
0 / 109
0 / 109
0 / 109
0 / 109
0 / 109
0 / 109
2 / 109
Sources[36]

Susana Díaz was unable to get a favorable vote in either of the three votings that took place in 5, 8 and 14 May, as all four PP, Podemos, C's and IU voted against her election. Further, negotiations between Díaz's PSOE and the opposition parties broke off when, on 13 May—the eve of the third investiture vote—it was unveiled that the Andalusian government had awarded the exploitation of the Aznalcóllar mine to a governmental-favored firm through illegal means and "without observing the slightest rigor" in February–March 2015, previously and during the regional election campaign.[51][52] With Díaz's government refusing to give explanations over the scandal, all four parties reassured their negative to allow for Díaz's investiture in the 14 May vote,[53] with then-acting President Susana Díaz blaming all four opposition parties of imposing a "political blockade" over Andalusia and threatening them with a new election to be held in the event of her failing to get elected.[54]

PP regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla accused Díaz of "arrogance" and of "asking them to allow her investiture without yielding to their conditions", also asking himself why Díaz kept holding investiture votings if no inter-party agreement had been reached.[55] Teresa Rodríguez from Podemos also criticised Díaz for not accepting her party's conditions, blaming the PSOE for the political instability in the region and stating that a new election would mean the PSOE's failure in forming a government through dialogue.[56] All opposition parties also reiterated their position that they did not trust Díaz to fulfill any compromise once she did get elected.[57]

New investiture votes were initially postponed until after the 24 May Spanish regional and municipal elections as a result of the electoral campaign centering the political focus.[58] However, on 5 June, after the elections, on the impossibility to have Díaz formally invested, the PSOE threatened the opposition parties with letting the legal time limit for the automatic dissolution of the Parliament to expire should an agreement not be reached with anyone before Tuesday, 9 June.[59] In the end, the PSOE and C's reached an agreement, with the latter accepting to support Díaz to end the parliamentary deadlock and prevent a new election, lifting off their requirement for Chaves and Griñan's resignations before considering to enter negotiations with the PSOE.[9]

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones en Andalucía, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  2. ↑ "El quintupartidismo aterriza en Andalucía, según la encuesta de GAD3 para ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  3. ↑ "Los sondeos a pie de urna dan la victoria al PSOE con 41-44 escaños y 19-22 a Podemos". Público (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  4. ↑ "22-Marzo-2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  5. ↑ "Andalucía: Ciudadanos lograría 12 escaños en plena tendencia al alza". El Español (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  6. ↑ "Andalucía, Situación Electoral 2015 para El Español (16.03.2015)" (PDF). Jaime Miquel & Asociados (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  7. ↑ "El PSOE ganará las elecciones andaluzas sin mayoría absoluta". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  8. ↑ "Última estimación publicable de GAD3". GAD3 (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  9. ↑ "El PSOE se estanca, condenado a pactar". La Razón (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  10. ↑ "La recta final de los comicios" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  11. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Deimos". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 March 2015.
  12. ↑ "El PSOE aumenta su ventaja con el PP, afectado por el auge de Ciudadanos". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 15 March 2015.
  13. ↑ "El PSOE, mejor cuanto más cerca". Diario Jaén (in Spanish). 15 March 2015.
  14. ↑ "El PSOE gana en Andalucía, pero se queda más lejos de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 March 2015.
  15. ↑ "Ciudadanos, clave para gobernar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 March 2015.
  16. ↑ "Encuesta SIGMA-DOS". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 March 2015.
  17. ↑ "La estabilidad de Andalucía pasa por un acuerdo PSOE-Ciudadanos". El País (in Spanish). 14 March 2015.
  18. ↑ "Estimación de resultados en las elecciones autonómicas andaluzas". El País (in Spanish). 13 March 2015.
  19. ↑ "Elecciones Andaluzas: sondeo preelectoral". Blogs El País (in Spanish). 16 March 2015.
  20. ↑ "El PSOE gana claramente en Andalucía pero queda lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 March 2015.
  21. ↑ "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER. Estudio preelectoral de Andalucía (13/3/2015)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 13 March 2015.
  22. ↑ "Díaz avanza en Andalucía, pero tendrá que explorar nuevos pactos". El Español (in Spanish). 7 March 2015.
  23. 1 2 3 "Andalucía, Situación Electoral 2015 para El Español (06.03.2015)" (PDF). Jaime Miquel & Asociados (in Spanish). 7 March 2015.
  24. ↑ "Ciudadanos ahonda en la caída del PP y Podemos frena su impulso inicial". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 9 March 2015.
  25. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones en Andalucía con más de un 36% de los votos". laSexta (in Spanish). 6 March 2015.
  26. ↑ "El PP gana 2,5 puntos sobre el CIS andaluz mientras Podemos pierde 5". La Razón (in Spanish). 8 March 2015.
  27. ↑ "ANDALUCÍA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo NC Report". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 March 2015.
  28. ↑ "El PSOE ganará las elecciones pero tendrá que pactar para gobernar". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 6 March 2015.
  29. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones pero sigue perdiendo apoyos". Andalucía Press (in Spanish). 10 March 2015.
  30. ↑ "La paradoja del 22M". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 8 March 2015.
  31. ↑ "Susana Díaz ganará, pero deberá pactar". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2015.
  32. ↑ "Elecciones Andaluzas: sondeo preelectoral". Blogs El País (in Spanish). 2 March 2015.
  33. ↑ "El PSOE gana en Andalucía, pero se queda más lejos de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2015.
  34. ↑ "El PSOE mantiene la ventaja con el PP pero sigue lejos de la mayoría absoluta". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 28 February 2015.
  35. ↑ "El PSOE afianza su mayoría en las elecciones autonómicas". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 28 February 2015.
  36. ↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía (Estudio nº 3053. Enero-Febrero 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 March 2015.
  37. ↑ "Andalucía abre el ciclo electoral con Díaz abocada a los pactos de gobierno". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 March 2015.
  38. ↑ "Encuesta de Andalucía. Febrero 2015". Asociación Independiente de Estadísticas para la Democracia (in Spanish). 15 February 2015.
  39. ↑ "Susana Díaz, obligada a pactar con PP o con Podemos para gobernar". El Español (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
  40. ↑ "Andalucía, Situación Electoral 2015 para El Español (31.01.2015)" (PDF). Jaime Miquel & Asociados (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
  41. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2015" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 13 February 2015.
  42. ↑ "El PSOE gana en Andalucía, pero se queda más lejos de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
  43. ↑ "Susana Díaz tendrá que pactar con quienes no quiere pactar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
  44. ↑ "Encuesta electoral en Andalucía". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
  45. ↑ "El PSOE sería la fuerza más votada en Andalucía con casi el 40% de los votos". laSexta (in Spanish). 24 January 2015.
  46. ↑ "El PSOE ganará las andaluzas lejos de la mayoría pero frena el efecto Podemos". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 8 February 2015.
  47. ↑ "El PSOE vuelve a vencer". Diario Jaén (in Spanish). 8 February 2015.
  48. ↑ "El PA triplica su intención de voto según el Barómetro del Liceo Andaluz de Economía". Andalucía Press (in Spanish). 16 December 2014.
  49. ↑ "El PSOE mantiene la primacía a pesar del empuje de Podemos". EuropaSur (in Spanish). 14 December 2014.
  50. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía con el 31,2% de los votos al PP, que lograría el 28,3%". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 September 2014.
  51. ↑ "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER. Clima político en Andalucía (4/9/2014)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 4 September 2014.
  52. ↑ "El PSOE-A aumenta su ventaja para las autonómicas con Susana Díaz como la líder más valorada por delante de Pablo Iglesias". laSexta (in Spanish). 30 July 2014.
  53. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2014" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 1 August 2014.
  54. ↑ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  55. ↑ "Susana Díaz adelanta al PP en un clima de deterioro del bipartidismo". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2014.
  56. ↑ "Radiografía del voto. Encuesta elecciones autonómicas" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 16 February 2014.
  57. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2014" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 19 February 2014.
  58. ↑ "El PP y el PSOE, en empate técnico tras la sucesión de Griñán". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 13 October 2013.
  59. ↑ ""Publímetro" de Andalucía. Estudio de opinión de Andalucía – Septiembre 2013" (PDF). andalucesdiario.es (in Spanish). 2 October 2013.
  60. ↑ "El "efecto" Díaz no devuelve la mayoría absoluta al PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 9 September 2013.
  61. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2013" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 30 July 2013.
  62. ↑ "El PP acorta distancias con el PSOE, que baja 3,5 puntos". andalucesdiario.es (in Spanish). 15 July 2013.
  63. ↑ "IU sube con fuerza, el PSOE recupera terreno y el PP se desploma". andalucesdiario.es (in Spanish). 28 May 2013.
  64. ↑ "El Gobierno de Griñán se refuerza por la caída del PP y la subida de IU". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2013.
  65. ↑ "Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero 2013" (PDF). CEPES–A (in Spanish). 25 February 2013.
  66. ↑ "El PSOE-A ganaría las autonómicas con 6,8 puntos sobre el PP-A, según CEPES". Ideal.es (in Spanish). 25 February 2013.
  67. ↑ "El PP sigue en caída libre y el PSOE no logra remontar su peor resultado". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 28 February 2013.
  68. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2013" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 15 February 2013.
  69. ↑ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2012" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 14 December 2012.
  70. ↑ "Espectacular caída del PP en Andalucía". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 14 December 2012.
  71. ↑ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2012" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 18 July 2012.
Other
  1. 1 2 "Susana Díaz breaks with IU and calls a snap election for March" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-25.
  2. ↑ "Andalusia, first electoral test of the new age of Spanish politics" (in Spanish). La Nación. 2015-03-22.
  3. ↑ "Podemos consolidates itself in the first electoral test of 2015" (in Spanish). eldiario.es. 2015-03-23.
  4. 1 2 "The PP will vote against Susana Díaz so that PSOE 'portrays' itself with Podemos or C's" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2015-03-24.
  5. ↑ "The PP announces now that it will vote 'no' in Susana Díaz's investiture vote" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-03-24.
  6. ↑ "Citizens will vote against Susana Díaz's investiture" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-03-23.
  7. 1 2 "Podemos makes Díaz to wait" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-25.
  8. 1 2 "PP-A's 'no' forces all other parties to position themselves". eldiario.es. 2015-03-25.
  9. 1 2 "Susana Díaz will be invested on Thursday after the agreement with Citizens" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-06-09.
  10. ↑ "Griñán brings forward his renounce to the [regional] Government and his replacement by Susana Díaz" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-07-23.
  11. ↑ "Griñán: "I want to preserve the Government from the erosion of the ERE scandal"" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-08-27.
  12. ↑ "Susana Díaz removes the housing competencies from IU because of a plan for squatters" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-04-09.
  13. ↑ "IU plans a referendum set for June about its permanence in the Andalusian government" (in Spanish). ABC. 2014-12-21.
  14. ↑ "Tension between the PSOE and IU paves the way for snap election in Andalusia" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-19.
  15. ↑ "Susana Díaz opens the door for a snap election: "There is no stability"" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-01-19.
  16. ↑ "Díaz receives PSOE-A's support for a snap election, which IU rejects" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2015-01-20.
  17. ↑ "The PSOE takes for granted a snap election to be held in Andalusia by March" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-20.
  18. ↑ "Parliament sets an extraordinary plenary for Monday because of the eventual snap election" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-01-22.
  19. ↑ "Susana Díaz announces an extraordinary plenary session for Monday where she could make official the snap regional election" (in Spanish). Eco Diario. 2015-01-22.
  20. ↑ "Susana Díaz settles the debate over her candidacy to the PSOE primaries" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-24.
  21. ↑ "The PSOE only wants Susana Díaz as candidate now" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-01-21.
  22. ↑ "Susana Díaz; an Andalusian president that looks to Madrid" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-01-26.
  23. ↑ "Susana Díaz paves the way for a snap election and will be the first to face Podemos" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2015-01-20.
  24. ↑ "The Supreme Court charges Chaves and Griñán because of the ERE fraud" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-17.
  25. 1 2 3 4 "Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia of 2007". Organic Law No. 2 of 19 March 2007. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  26. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  27. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  28. 1 2 3 "Andalusia Electoral Law of 1986". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986. Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
  29. 1 2 "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  30. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  31. ↑ "Government of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia Law of 2006". Law No. 6 of 24 October 2006. Official Gazette of the Junta of Andalusia (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  32. ↑ "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2015. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Junta of Andalusia. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  33. 1 2 "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 22 March 2015" (PDF). juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Andalusia. 15 April 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  34. 1 2 "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 22 March 2015. Error correction (I)" (PDF). juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Andalusia. 23 April 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  35. 1 2 "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 22 March 2015. Error correction (II)" (PDF). juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Andalusia. 16 July 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  36. 1 2 3 "Parliament of Andalusia elections since 1982". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  37. ↑ "Opposition threatens to block Susana Díaz's investiture to the end" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2015-03-26.
  38. ↑ "United Left denies its vote to Susana Díaz because of she "lacking credibility"" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-03-26.
  39. ↑ "The PP announces now that it will vote 'no' in Susana Díaz's investiture voting" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-03-24.
  40. ↑ "Podemos presents Díaz its conditions to allow for her investiture" (in Spanish). eldiario.es. 2015-03-26.
  41. ↑ "Citizens will vote against Susana Díaz's investiture" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-03-23.
  42. ↑ "Citizens maintains its "no" to Susana Díaz investiture if those responsible for the ERE scandal do not resign" (in Spanish). eldiario.es. 2015-03-26.
  43. ↑ "Citizens offers Susana Díaz an agreement if she dismisses Griñán and Chaves" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2015-03-23.
  44. ↑ "The PP will not oppose Díaz's investiture if the PSOE allows the government of the most-voted party in the municipal elections" (in Spanish). eldiario.es. 2015-03-26.
  45. ↑ "Susana Díaz rejects PP proposal to respect the most-voted plurality" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital. 2015-03-27.
  46. ↑ "Susana Díaz needs stability" (in Spanish). Granada Hoy. 2015-03-29.
  47. ↑ "Susana Díaz: 'I'm going to govern alone'" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-23.
  48. ↑ "New election in Andalusia within 2 months?" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-03-25.
  49. ↑ "Susana Díaz negotiates her investiture under the threat of a new election" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2015-03-26.
  50. ↑ "Four options for Susana Díaz's investiture: yes, no, abstention... or leave" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-03-27.
  51. ↑ "Corruption: The Andalusian Government awarded Aznalcóllar flouting the law" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-05-13.
  52. ↑ "The awarding of Aznalcóllar complicates the investiture of Díaz" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-05-13.
  53. ↑ "The Aznalcóllar scandal bursts away the negotiations for the investiture of Diaz" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2015-05-13.
  54. ↑ "Susana Diaz: "If we must go to a new election, we shall go"" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-05-14.
  55. ↑ "Bonilla (PP) to the "arrogance" of Susana Diaz: "Why did she summon us if there is no agreement?"" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2015-05-14.
  56. ↑ "Teresa Rodríguez says a new poll in Andalusia would certify the failure of the PSOE" (in Spanish). Diario Sur. 2015-05-14.
  57. ↑ "No party trusts Díaz" (in Spanish). El Correo. 2015-05-05.
  58. ↑ "The PSOE gives up with Podemos and postpones the investiture after 24-M" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-05-13.
  59. ↑ "Susana Díaz's gamble: an agreement by Tuesday or a new election" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-06-05.

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