Portuguese legislative election, 2002

Portuguese legislative election, 2002
17 March 2002
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered 8,902,713 Increase0.4%
Turnout 5,473,655 (61.5%)
Increase0.4 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader José Manuel Barroso Ferro Rodrigues Paulo Portas
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 27 May 1999 20 January 2002 22 March 1998
Leader's seat Lisbon[1] Lisbon[2] Aveiro[3]
Last election 81 seats, 32.3% 115 seats, 44.1% 15 seats, 8.3%
Seats won 105 96 14
Seat change Increase 24 Decrease 19 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,200,765 2,068,584 477,350
Percentage 40.2% 37.8% 8.7%
Swing Increase 7.9 pp Decrease 6.3 pp Increase 0.4 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Carlos Carvalhas Francisco Louçã
Party PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since 5 December 1992 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Lisbon[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 17 seats, 9.0% 2 seats, 2.4%
Seats won 12 3
Seat change Decrease 5 Increase 1
Popular vote 379,870 153,877
Percentage 6.9% 2.7%
Swing Decrease 2.0 pp Increase 0.4 pp
Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

 Elected Prime Minister

José Manuel Barroso
PSD

The Portuguese legislative election of 2002 took place on 17 March. These elections were called after the resignation of the former Prime-Minister, António Guterres after a defeat of the Socialist Party in the local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to win the election.

With just over 40% of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38% of the vote. This was, and still is, the smallest difference between the two major parties in Portugal. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5% of the electorate cast a ballot.

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are divided among parties according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, there is an effective threshold at the constituency level that depends on the district magnitude.[6] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation method such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[7]

Parties

The major parties involved and the respective leaders were:

José Manuel Durão Barroso, leader of the Social Democratic Party, was nominated Prime Minister and formed a coalition government with the People's Party.

Opinion Polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

Date Released Polling Firm PSD PS CDU CDS-PP BE Others Lead
17 Mar 2002 Leg. Election 40.2
105 seats		 37.8
96 seats		 6.9
12 seats		 8.7
14 seats		 2.7
3 seats		 3.7
0 seats		 2.4
17 Mar (20:00) RTP1 - Universidade Católica 37.0–42.0 36.0–41.0 5.5–8.0 7.5–10.0 3.0–4.0
—
 1.0
17 Mar (20:00) SIC - Eurosondagem 40.1–43.9 35.5–39.3 6.2–8.4 6.2–8.4 2.0–3.4
—
 4.6
17 Mar (20:00) TVI - INTERCAMPUS 37.8–42.8 35.5–40.5 6.8–9.8 5.3–8.3 1.6–4.2
—
 2.3
Exit polls
15 Mar 2002 Marktest 43.7 35.2 8.1 6.0 3.7 3.3 8.5
15 Mar 2002 Lusófona 43.6 40.9 5.7 7.1 2.8 N/A 2.7
15 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 41.4 39.3 6.9 5.6 3.5 3.3 2.1
15 Mar 2002 Eurequipa 44.7 33.9 7.1 9.1 3.2 2.0 10.8
15 Mar 2002 Universidade Católica 42.2 37.5 6.9 6.8 3.6 3.0 4.7
14 Mar 2002 INTERCAMPUS 41.0 39.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 2.0
14 Mar 2002 Aximage 44.0 40.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 4.0
13 Mar 2002 SIC/Visão 41.0 36.2 6.6 5.2 2.0 9.0 4.8
8 Mar 2002 Marktest 43.0 36.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 7.0
2 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 38.0 35.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 14.0 3.0
Feb 2002 Marktest 45.7 34.7 6.7 7.3 2.5 3.1 11.0
Jan 2002 Marktest 41.8 33.8 9.6 8.1 2.5 4.2 8.0
16 Dec 2001 Local Elections 41.0 37.1 10.6 4.0 1.2 6.1 3.9
Nov 2001 Marktest 33.7 35.4 10.6 11.6 2.9 5.8 1.7
Oct 2001 Marktest 33.9 35.9 10.5 11.5 2.7 5.5 2.0
10 Oct 1999 Leg. Election 32.3
81 seats		 44.1
115 seats		 9.0
17 seats		 8.3
15 seats		 2.4
2 seats		 3.9
0 seats		 11.9

National summary of votes and seats

 Summary of the 17 March 2002 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1999 2002 ± % ±
Social Democratic 2,200,76540.21Increase7.981105Increase2445.65Increase10.41.14
Socialist 2,068,58437.79Decrease6.311596Decrease1941.74Decrease8.31.10
People's 477,3508.72Increase0.41514Decrease16.09Decrease0.40.70
Democratic Unity Coalition[A] 379,8706.94Decrease2.11712Decrease55.22Decrease2.20.75
Left Bloc 149,9662.74Increase0.323Increase11.30Increase0.40.47
Portuguese Workers' Communist 36,1930.66Decrease0.000Steady00.00Steady0.00.0
Earth 15,5400.28Decrease0.100Steady00.00Steady0.00.0
People's Monarchist 12,3980.23Decrease0.100Steady00.00Steady0.00.0
Humanist 11,4720.21Increase0.100Steady00.00Steady0.00.0
National Renovator 4,7120.09N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,3160.08Steady0.000Steady00.00Steady0.00.0
Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union[B] 3,9110.07N/AN/A0N/A0.00N/A0.0
National Solidarity 8040.01Decrease0.200Steady00.00Steady0.00.0
Total valid 5,365,881 98.03 Increase0.0 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 55,1211.01Decrease0.1
Invalid ballots 52,6530.96Increase0.0
Total (turnout 61.48%) 5,473,655 100.00 Increase0.4
A Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[8]
B Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
 40.21%
PS
 
 37.79%
CDS-PP
 
 8.72%
CDU
 
 6.94%
BE
 
 2.74%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.66%
Others
 
 0.96%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.97%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 45.65%
PS
 
 41.74%
CDS-PP
 
 6.09%
CDU
 
 5.22%
BE
 
 1.30%

Distribution by constituency

 Results of the 2002 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%S Total
S
PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE
Azores 45.4 3 41.0 2 8.4 - 1.4 - 1.4 - 5
Aveiro 46.4 8 33.5 5 12.9 2 2.6 - 1.8 - 15
Beja 21.2 - 43.5 2 3.7 - 24.2 1 1.9 - 3
Braga 44.4 9 37.4 8 9.3 1 4.4 - 1.7 - 18
Bragança 53.2 3 30.0 1 10.9 - 1.9 - 0.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 38.3 2 46.1 3 7.1 - 3.3 - 1.5 - 5
Coimbra 41.0 5 41.3 5 6.7 - 5.1 - 2.4 - 10
EvoraÉvora 25.3 1 42.8 1 4.6 - 21.8 1 1.8 - 3
Faro 37.7 4 40.5 4 8.3 - 6.3 - 2.8 - 8
Guarda 48.5 2 34.7 2 9.6 - 2.2 - 1.2 - 4
Leiria 50.8 6 29.5 3 9.8 1 4.1 - 2.2 - 10
Lisbon 35.7 18 38.7 20 8.5 4 8.8 4 4.7 2 48
Madeira 53.5 4 25.8 1 12.1 - 2.5 - 3.1 - 5
Portalegre 30.6 1 45.2 2 6.4 - 12.4 - 1.6 - 3
Porto 40.0 16 41.2 17 8.4 3 4.6 1 2.7 1 38
Santarém 38.1 4 38.4 4 8.4 1 8.6 1 2.9 - 10
Setúbal 24.7 5 39.3 7 6.9 1 20.5 4 4.6 - 17
Viana do Castelo 45.5 3 35.3 3 10.3 - 3.5 - 1.8 - 6
Vila Real 54.1 3 31.9 2 8.1 - 2.0 - 0.9 - 5
Viseu 52.1 5 31.1 3 10.6 1 1.5 - 1.4 - 9
zEurope 36.9 1 42.1 1 5.0 - 4.8 - 1.1 - 2
zRest of the World 66.3 2 21.5 - 3.4 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 2
Total 40.2 105 37.8 96 8.7 14 6.9 12 2.7 3 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Further reading

  • Freire, André (November 2004). "Issue Voting in Portugal: The 2002 Legislative Elections". West European Politics. 27 (5): 779–800. doi:10.1080/0140238042000283328.

References

  1. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. ↑ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  7. ↑ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  8. ↑ Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic

See also

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