Portuguese legislative election, 1995
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230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly 116 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered |
8,906,608 ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout |
5,904,854 (66.3%)![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This article is part of the series: |
Politics and government of Portugal |
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Portugal |
The Portuguese legislative election of 1995 took place on 1 October. The Socialist Party defeated the Social Democratic Party under the lead of António Guterres, elected three years before, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs.
The Social Democratic party, under the lead of Fernando Nogueira, was weakened by the end of the 10 year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition achieved only 15 MPs each, a thing that marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980.
Voter turnout stood at 66.3%, the lowest till then.
Electoral system
The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.
Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.
Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are divided among parties according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, there is an effective threshold at the constituency level that depends on the district magnitude.[5] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation method such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[6]
Parties
The major parties involved were listed with their leaders:
- Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU), Carlos Carvalhas
- Socialist Party (PS), António Guterres
- Social Democratic Party (PSD), Fernando Nogueira
- People's Party (CDS–PP), Manuel Monteiro
António Guterres, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister for the first time, becoming the first socialist Prime Minister in 10 years.
Opinion Polling
The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.
Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls
Date Released | Polling Firm | PSD | PS | CDU | CDS-PP | Others | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Oct 1995 | Leg. Election | 34.1 88 seats |
43.8 112 seats |
8.6 15 seats |
9.1 15 seats |
4.4 0 seats |
9.7 | ||
1 Oct | RTP/Euroteste | 33.4 | 40.3 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 6.9 | ||
1 Oct | SIC/Metris | 34.5 | 42.2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | ||
1 Oct | TVI/Universidade Católica | 35.5 | 41.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | ||
Exit polls | |||||||||
29 Sep | Norma | 40.3 | 35.2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | ||
23 Sep | Metris | 32.0 | 42.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | ||
23 Sep | Euroteste | 35.0 | 39.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | ||
23 Sep | Euroexpansão | 32.7 | 44.5 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 11.8 | ||
23 Sep | Universidade Católica | 35.0 | 40.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | ||
22 Sep | IPSOS | 35.0 | 41.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | ||
21 Sep | Marktest | 33.0 | 42.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | ||
16 Sep | Compta | 39.0 | 40.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
1995 | |||||||||
6 Oct 1991 | Leg. Election | 50.6 135 seats |
29.1 72 seats |
8.8 17 seats |
4.4 5 seats |
7.1 1 seats |
21.5 |
National summary of votes and seats
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Parties | Votes | % | ± | MPs | MPs %/ votes % | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1991 | 1995 | ± | % | ± | ||||||
Socialist | 2,583,755 | 43.76 | ![]() | 72 | 112 | ![]() | 48.70 | ![]() | 1.11 | |
Social Democratic | 2,014,589 | 34.12 | ![]() | 135 | 88 | ![]() | 38.26 | ![]() | 1.12 | |
People's[A] | 534,470 | 9.05 | ![]() | 5 | 15 | ![]() | 6.52 | ![]() | 0.72 | |
Democratic Unity Coalition[B] | 506,157 | 8.57 | ![]() | 17 | 15 | ![]() | 6.52 | ![]() | 0.76 | |
Portuguese Workers' Communist | 41,137 | 0.70 | ![]() | 0 | 0 | ![]() | 0.00 | ![]() | 0.0 | |
Revolutionary Socialist | 37,638 | 0.64 | ![]() | 0 | 0 | ![]() | 0.00 | ![]() | 0.0 | |
People's Democratic Union | 33,876 | 0.57 | ![]() | 0 | 0 | ![]() | 0.00 | ![]() | 0.0 | |
National Solidarity | 12,613 | 0.21 | ![]() | 1 | 0 | ![]() | 0.00 | ![]() | 0.0 | |
Party of the People | 8,279 | 0.14 | N/A | N/A | 0 | N/A | 0.00 | N/A | 0.0 | |
Earth | 8,235 | 0.14 | N/A | N/A | 0 | N/A | 0.00 | N/A | 0.0 | |
Earth / People's Monarchist | 5,932 | 0.10 | N/A | N/A | 0 | N/A | 0.00 | N/A | 0.0 | |
Unity Movement for Workers | 2,544 | 0.04 | N/A | N/A | 0 | N/A | 0.00 | N/A | 0.0 | |
Democratic Party of the Atlantic | 2,536 | 0.04 | ![]() | 0 | 0 | ![]() | 0.00 | ![]() | 0.0 | |
Total valid | 5,791,761 | 98.08 | ![]() |
230 | 230 | ![]() |
100.00 | ![]() |
— | |
Blank ballots | 45,793 | 0.78 | ![]() | |||||||
Invalid ballots | 67,300 | 1.14 | ![]() | |||||||
Total (turnout 66.30%) | 5,904,854 | 100.00 | ![]() | |||||||
A In 1993, the name "People´s Party" was added to the party's name. B Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[7] | ||||||||||
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições |
Distribution by constituency
Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | Total S |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PS | PSD | CDS–PP | CDU | ||||||
Azores | 37.6 | 2 | 47.8 | 3 | 9.4 | - | 1.8 | - | 5 |
Aveiro | 40.2 | 6 | 41.2 | 6 | 12.6 | 2 | 2.7 | - | 14 |
Beja | 45.8 | 2 | 15.7 | 1 | 3.6 | - | 29.2 | 1 | 4 |
Braga | 42.9 | 8 | 38.2 | 7 | 10.7 | 1 | 4.5 | - | 16 |
Bragança | 40.3 | 2 | 44.8 | 2 | 9.4 | - | 1.9 | - | 4 |
Castelo Branco | 53.2 | 3 | 32.1 | 2 | 7.2 | - | 5.3 | - | 5 |
Coimbra | 49.1 | 6 | 34.5 | 4 | 7.1 | - | 5.1 | - | 10 |
Évora | 42.6 | 2 | 20.2 | 1 | 5.2 | - | 26.9 | 1 | 4 |
Faro | 49.6 | 5 | 29.2 | 3 | 8.3 | - | 7.8 | - | 8 |
Guarda | 43.7 | 2 | 39.9 | 2 | 9.9 | - | 2.3 | - | 4 |
Leiria | 36.7 | 4 | 43.3 | 5 | 11.4 | 1 | 4.5 | - | 10 |
Lisbon | 44.3 | 24 | 29.0 | 15 | 9.4 | 5 | 12.0 | 6 | 50 |
Madeira | 32.0 | 2 | 46.1 | 3 | 12.9 | - | 1.3 | - | 5 |
Portalegre | 50.5 | 2 | 23.4 | 1 | 6.3 | - | 14.0 | - | 3 |
Porto | 46.7 | 18 | 36.4 | 14 | 7.8 | 3 | 6.0 | 2 | 37 |
Santarém | 45.8 | 5 | 31.0 | 3 | 8.7 | 1 | 9.5 | 1 | 10 |
Setúbal | 44.9 | 9 | 18.4 | 3 | 7.2 | 1 | 23.8 | 4 | 17 |
Viana do Castelo | 38.8 | 3 | 42.1 | 3 | 11.3 | - | 4.6 | - | 6 |
Vila Real | 40.0 | 2 | 46.0 | 3 | 7.8 | - | 1.9 | - | 5 |
Viseu | 38.4 | 4 | 44.3 | 4 | 11.5 | 1 | 1.8 | - | 9 |
Europe | 35.1 | 1 | 33.8 | 1 | 4.4 | - | 6.4 | - | 2 |
Rest of the World | 12.8 | - | 69.3 | 2 | 3.8 | - | 1.2 | - | 2 |
Total | 43.8 | 112 | 34.1 | 88 | 9.1 | 15 | 8.6 | 15 | 230 |
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições |
Maps
- Most voted political force by municipality.
References
- ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
- ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
- ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
- ↑ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
- ↑ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
- ↑ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
- ↑ Electoral results - Assembly of the Republic