44th Canadian federal election

The 44th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 16, 2023 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Parliament of Canada. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[1] Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government[2] or due to a recommendation by the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.

44th Canadian federal election
On or before October 16, 2023 (2023-10-16)
338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer[lower-alpha 1] Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 May 27, 2017 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Regina—Qu'Appelle Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.07% 121 seats, 34.41% 32 seats, 7.69%
Current seats 156 121 32
Seats needed 14 49 N/A[lower-alpha 2]
 
Leader Jagmeet Singh Jo-Ann Roberts[lower-alpha 3]
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 4, 2019
Leader's seat Burnaby South No seat
Last election 24 seats, 15.93% 3 seats, 6.50%
Current seats 24 3
Seats needed 146 167
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Background

The 2019 federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing their majority but winning the most seats. The Conservatives continued as the Official Opposition with Andrew Scheer temporarily remaining as Leader of the Opposition[3] until announcing his resignation, triggering a leadership election[4] while the Bloc Québécois became the third party. The New Democrats lost seats but maintained official party status and, although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs—twelve—for official party status. All leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[5][6][7] However, Elizabeth May said that she may not lead the Greens into the 44th election,[8] and she ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[9] On November 6, 2019, the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader. His leadership would still have been reviewed during the party's April 2020 convention[10][11] However, on December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[12] He will stay on until his successor is chosen and will remain as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[13][14]

Current standings
 Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada
Party Party leader Seats
2019 Current
Liberal Justin Trudeau 157 156
Conservative Andrew Scheer (outgoing) 121 121
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 32 32
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 24 24
Green Jo-Ann Roberts (interim) 3 3
  Independent 1 2
Total 338 338

Timeline
See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament

2019

2020

Opinion polls
Main article: Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes
  1. Announced his pending resignation on December 12, 2019; will continue to lead the party until a leadership election is held on August 21, 2020.
  2. Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus they currently can not gain a majority in parliament.
  3. Interim leader until October 4, 2020; former leader Elizabeth May remains the party's parliamentary leader.

References
  1. "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  2. Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  3. Tasker, John Paul (October 22, 2019). "Andrew Scheer says he's staying on as leader, will fight Trudeau in the next election". Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  4. von Scheel, Elise (January 3, 2020). "Conservativesto pick their new leader on June 27". Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  5. Tunney, Catharine (October 22, 2019). "Singh says he's 'not at all' worried about a leadership challenge after NDP's election disappointment". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  6. Montpetit, Jonathan (October 22, 2019). "Big gains for the Bloc Québécois, but what did it sacrifice in the process?". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  7. Tasker, John Paul (October 22, 2019). "Andrew Scheer says he's staying on as leader, will fight Trudeau in the next election". CBC News. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  8. Zimonjic, Peter (October 24, 2019). "Elizabeth May says she's staying on as leader—for now". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  9. "Elizabeth May steps down as Green Party leader | CTV News". CTV News. November 4, 2019. Retrieved November 4, 2019.
  10. "Scheer's leadership safe for now after Conservative caucus vote". CBC News. November 6, 2019. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
  11. "In a win for Andrew Scheer, Conservative MPs vote against reforming leadership review process". Global News. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
  12. Catharine Tunney, Kathleen Harris (December 12, 2019). "Andrew Scheer stepping down as Conservative Party leader". CBC News. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  13. "Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer resigns, vows to stay on until new leader chosen". Global News. Retrieved December 14, 2019.
  14. "Andrew Scheer stepping down as Conservative leader, staying on until replacement chosen". CTVNews. December 12, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2019.
  15. Turnbull, Sarah (October 23, 2019). "Trudeau says new cabinet will be sworn in Nov. 20, rules out coalition". CTV News. Retrieved October 23, 2019.
  16. Aiello, Rachel (October 29, 2019). "Trudeau taps French ambassador, Anne McLellan to aide in transition". CTV News. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
  17. Thibedeau, Hannah (October 30, 2019). "Elizabeth May is 'interested' in being the next Speaker of the House of Commons". CBC News. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
  18. Walsh, Marieke; Stone, Laura (November 3, 2019). "Trudeau invites Scheer, Blanchet, Singh and May to one-on-one meetings to see if any common ground exists". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 11, 2019.
  19. Simpson, Katie (November 4, 2019). "At a news conference, Green Party leader Elizabeth May says she would like to run for speaker after the *next* election, not now, since her caucus (which totals three) doesn't want her to do that". Twitter. Retrieved November 4, 2019.
  20. Dawson, Tyler (November 18, 2019). "Maxime Bernier has one election regret, but says he's definitely running again". National Post. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  21. D'amore, Rachel (November 12, 2019). "Parliament to reconvene on Dec. 5 to choose speaker, hear throne speech". Global News. Retrieved November 12, 2019.
  22. Carty, Matt; Nielsen, Kevin (June 5, 2020). "MP Marwan Tabbara leaving Liberal caucus after charges laid". Global News. Global News. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  23. "Roles - Marwan Tabbara". House of Commons. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  24. "Simcoe North MP Bruce Stanton won't seek re-election". Orillia Matters. Retrieved Juen 25, 2020. Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  25. "Conservatives to pick their new leader on June 27". CBC News. January 3, 2020. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
  26. "Pierre Nantel réfléchit à se présenter comme chef du Parti vert". TVRS (in French). November 5, 2019. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
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