40th New Brunswick general election
The 40th New Brunswick general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 17, 2022. The October 17 date is the result of an amendment made to the Legislative Assembly Act in 2017, causing an election to be held every four years, on the third Monday in October, beginning after the planned September 22, 2018 election.[1] However, due to the current minority situation in the legislature, an election could occur sooner due to a motion of no confidence in the government or due to a recommendation by the Premier for a snap election.
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49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
The 2018 provincial election resulted in no party winning a majority of seats in the legislature for the first time since the 1920 provincial election. On election night, Blaine Higgs claimed victory for the Progressive Conservative Party, saying his team had received a mandate from New Brunswickers; however, Liberal Party leader and incumbent premier Brian Gallant stated his intention to remain in office with a minority government by securing support on a vote-by-vote basis.[2] Over the following days, the lieutenant governor, Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau, met with both leaders, and gave Gallant permission to continue in office and attempt to seek the confidence of the legislative assembly,[3] while Higgs was told that if Gallant was unable to secure the confidence of the house, Higgs would be called on to form government.[4]
After the election, both Kris Austin of the People's Alliance and David Coon of the Green Party were noncommittal in their support.[5][6] Gallant pursued a partnership with the Green Party, ruling out any arrangement with the Progressive Conservative Party or People's Alliance because they were perceived as not sharing the Liberal Party’s “values.”[7] Higgs initially ruled out any formal agreements with other parties, but later said that a four-year agreement like in British Columbia would be ideal for stability.[8] On September 28, Austin agreed to provide stability for a Progressive Conservative minority government on a "bill-by-bill basis" for eighteen months, though no formal agreement was made.[9]
On November 2, the legislative assembly voted 25-23 for a motion, introduced by the Progressive Conservatives, to amend the throne speech to declare no confidence in the government. Subsequently, Gallant indicated his intention to resign the premiership and recommend to the lieutenant governor that Higgs be given the mandate to form government.[10] Higgs' minority government was sworn into office on November 9.[11]
On November 15, 2018 Brian Gallant announced his resignation as leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Association.[12] He was succeeded by Kevin Vickers, who assumed the party leadership on April 24, 2019.[13]
The PC minority government's seat total dropped to 21 on September 10, 2019 upon the death of Progressive Conservative MLA Greg Thompson.
On February 14, 2020, Robert Gauvin resigned as deputy premier and from the Progressive Conservative caucus to sit as an independent MLA. He cited the government's health reforms, including the nighttime closure of six hospital emergency rooms, as the reason for his resignation. Gauvin's departure reduced the PC's seats to 20, and resulted in the government's support being less than the combined total of the opposition, leading to questions of the government's survival.[14]
Opinion polls
Polling Firm | Last Day of Polling | Link | PC | Liberal | PA | Green | NDP | ||||
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Angus Reid | May 24, 2020 | HTML | 39 | 26 | 13 | 17 | 4 | ||||
Narrative Research | May 20, 2020 | HTML | 48 | 30 | 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
Innovative Research Group | May 7, 2020 | 33 | 37 | 6 | 13 | 10 | |||||
Narrative Research | March 12, 2020 | HTML | 39 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 8 | ||||
MQO Research | February 27, 2020 | 37 | 31 | 4 | 21 | 4 | |||||
Narrative Research | November 1-22, 2019 | HTML | 37 | 31 | 3 | 21 | 7 | ||||
Narrative Research | August 2–23, 2019 | 36 | 29 | 8 | 18 | 6 | |||||
Narrative Research | June 13, 2019 | HTML | 42 | 25 | 6 | 18 | 8 | ||||
MQO Research | May 6, 2019 | 40 | 30 | 5 | 20 | 3 | |||||
24 April 2019 | Kevin Vickers becomes leader of the Liberal Party | ||||||||||
Corporate Research Associates | February 19, 2019 | 42 | 29 | 9 | 14 | 6 | |||||
MQO Research | February 10, 2019 | 46 | 32 | 8 | 11 | 3 | |||||
Mainstreet Research | January 15, 2019 | HTML | 40.2 | 27.3 | 12.4 | 15 | 4.5 | ||||
Corporate Research Associates | November 24, 2018 | 30 | 35 | 12 | 17 | 6 | |||||
9 November 2018 | Blaine Higgs is sworn in as Premier of New Brunswick leading a PC minority government, following the resignation of Brian Gallant and his Liberal minority government. | ||||||||||
MQO Research | November 5, 2018 | 36 | 29 | 11 | 21 | 3 | |||||
2 November 2018 | Premier Brian Gallant's Liberal minority government loses a non-confidence vote | ||||||||||
Mainstreet Research | November 2, 2018 | HTML | 33.7 | 33.7 | 12.7 | 15.7 | 3 | ||||
Election 2018 | September 24, 2018 | HTML | 31.89 | 37.80 | 12.58 | 11.88 | 5.01 | ||||
Notes
References
- Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. "An Act to Amend the Legislative Assembly Act". Retrieved November 27, 2018.
- MacDonald, Michael (September 24, 2018). "New Brunswick Tories win most seats, but Liberals will try to stay in power". CTV News. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Fraser, Elizabeth (September 25, 2018). "Liberals and PCs continue battle over who will govern N.B." CBC News. Retrieved September 27, 2018.
- "New Brunswick Tory leader Blaine Higgs calls on Premier Brian Gallant to resign". The Canadian Press. September 27, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Donkin, Karissa (September 24, 2018). "People's Alliance wins 3 seats in 'significant breakthrough'". CBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Fraser, Elizabeth (September 24, 2018). "David Coon will head back to house with 2 other Green MLAs". CBC News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
- Fraser, Elizabeth (September 26, 2018). "Liberals court Greens for governing partnership". CBC News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
- "Four-year deal between New Brunswick Tories, smaller party ideal for stability: Higgs". The Canadian Press. October 1, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
- "People's Alliance agrees to support a PC government in N.B. 'bill by bill'". CBC News. September 28, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
- Brian Gallant's minority government defeated after losing confidence vote
- Bisset, Kevin (November 9, 2018). "Blaine Higgs sworn-in as New Brunswick premier". The Canadian Press.
- Brian Gallant resigns as N.B. Liberal leader after election loss
- "Kevin Vickers officially acclaimed as leader of New Brunswick Liberals". CTV News. The Canadian Press. April 17, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
- Poitras, Jacques (14 February 2020). "Gauvin resigns as deputy premier, will sit as an independent". CBC News. Retrieved 14 February 2020.