Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2019 Canadian federal election leading up to the 44th Canadian federal election, scheduled to take place on or before October 16, 2023.[1]

Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling[1]		 Link CPC LPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Other[2] Margin
of error[3]		 Sample
size[4]		 Polling method[5] Lead
Innovative ResearchJune 23, 2020PDF27411568N/A3N/A2,115online14
LegerJune 21, 2020PDF28391975N/A2±2.51 pp1,521online11
Abacus DataJune 21, 2020HTML2940167621±1.8 pp2,979online11
EKOSJune 16, 2020HTML29.940.512.75.16.53.51.8±1.8 pp3,006IVR10.6
LegerJune 14, 2020PDF27401677N/A3±2.51 pp1,527online13
Abacus DataJune 11, 2020Twitter29391965N/AN/AN/A1,780online10
LegerJune 7, 2020PDF25461576N/A1±2.51 pp1,523online21
Innovative ResearchJune 1, 2020PDF28421277N/A4N/A2,246online14
LegerMay 31, 2020PDF27401877N/A2±2.50 pp1,536online13
Abacus DataMay 29, 2020Twitter29391577N/AN/AN/A1,800online10
LegerMay 25, 2020PDF27411576N/A2±2.52 pp1,510online14
Angus ReidMay 24, 2020PDF31371775N/A3±1.4 pp5,001online6
LegerMay 17, 2020PDF25441577N/A2±2.52 pp1,513online19
Abacus DataMay 17, 2020HTML31391676N/AN/A±2.3 pp1,800online8
LegerMay 10, 2020PDF28411776N/A1±2.51 pp1,526online13
Mainstreet ResearchMay 7, 2020HTML29.443.311.55.85.93.01.1±2.6 pp1,404IVR13.9
EKOSMay 7, 2020HTML28.342.710.66.76.73.31.7±1.4 pp5,276IVR14.4
Innovative ResearchMay 5, 2020PDF28411367N/A3N/A2,699online13
Research Co.May 3, 2020PDF3039175711±3.1 pp1,000online9
LegerMay 3, 2020PDF25441576N/A2±2.51 pp1,526online19
LegerApril 26, 2020PDF28431476N/A2±2.51 pp1,515online15
Abacus DataApril 24, 2020Twitter30381686N/AN/AN/A2,481online8
LegerApril 19, 2020PDF29421485N/A2±2.53 pp1,504online13
Angus ReidApril 17, 2020PDF33361784N/A3±2.2 pp1,912online3
LegerApril 12, 2020PDF28391868N/A2±2.52 pp1,508online11
Innovative ResearchApril 2, 2020PDF [6]2740158721N/A2,059online13
EKOSMarch 26, 2020HTML28.640.412.28.65.92.22.1±2.0 pp2,304IVR11.8
Mainstreet ResearchMarch 17, 2020HTML32.238.611.18.85.71.71.9±2.4 pp1,665IVR6.4
LegerMarch 2, 2020PDF30322088N/A2±2.50 pp1,540online2
Angus ReidFebruary 28, 2020PDF34262197N/A3±1.4 pp5,043online8
Campaign ResearchFebruary 26, 2020HTML303019811N/A3±2.5 pp1,606online0
Nanos ResearchFebruary 21, 2020HTML36.233.015.46.86.61.4N/A±3.1 pp1,038telephone (rolling)3.2
LegerJanuary 30, 2020PDF32341977N/A1±2.53 pp1,501online2
Nanos ResearchJanuary 24, 2020HTML31.033.816.78.38.90.9N/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone (rolling)2.8
LegerJanuary 21, 2020PDF32311988N/A2±2.49 pp1,552online1
Abacus DataJanuary 17, 2020HTML3034176832±2.5 pp1,500online4
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 17, 2020HTML32.439.810.66.65.42.82.4±2.55 pp1,470IVR7.4
LegerJanuary 7, 2020PDF31341878N/A2±2.49 pp1,554online3
Abacus DataDecember 16, 2019HTML3033187822±2.1 pp1,500online3
Angus ReidDecember 15, 2019PDF33301987N/A3±2.0 pp2,011online3
Andrew Scheer announces his intention to resign as the leader of the Conservative Party (December 12, 2019)
EKOSDecember 10, 2019PDF29.631.116.85.89.84.22.7±2.0 pp2,339IVR1.5
LegerNovember 25, 2019PDF3032197731±1.78 pp3,040online2
Nanos ResearchNovember 22, 2019HTML30.933.617.2N/A9.2N/AN/A±3.1 pp1,000 (3/4)telephone (rolling)2.7
Jo-Ann Roberts is named interim leader of the Green Party (November 4, 2019)
Nanos ResearchNovember 1, 2019HTML32.531.1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone (rolling)1.4
2019 Election[7]October 21, 2019HTML34.333.116.07.66.51.60.91.2

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

October 2019–present
Polling firm Last date

of polling

 Link Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[1]		 Lead
Nanos Research May 29, 2020 PDF 38.8 15.5 14.4 6.1 5.8 4.8 13.2 ±3.1 pp 23.3
Nanos Research May 15, 2020 PDF 37.5 17.2 14.5 7.0 6.2 4.2 13.2 ±3.1 pp 20.3
Nanos Research May 8, 2020 PDF 38.0 17.0 14.3 7.0 7.5 4.0 12.0 ±3.1 pp 21.0
Nanos Research May 1, 2020 PDF 37.1 17.8 15.5 6.7 7.6 3.9 11.5 ±3.1 pp 19.3
Nanos Research April 24, 2020 PDF 38.0 17.3 15.7 6.6 7.0 4.3 11.2 ±3.1 pp 20.7
Nanos Research April 17, 2020 PDF 37.4 16.3 15.5 6.2 6.2 3.7 14.8 ±3.1 pp 21.1
Nanos Research April 10, 2020 PDF 37.6 17.1 15.2 5.7 4.8 1.1 16.5 ±3.1 pp 20.5
Nanos Research April 3, 2020 PDF 35.4 17.8 14.1 5.4 5.4 2.1 19.8 ±3.1 pp 17.6
Nanos Research March 27, 2020 PDF 31.9 19.7 13.2 4.3 5.8 1.8 23.3 ±3.1 pp 12.2
Nanos Research March 20, 2020 PDF 30.7 21.4 12.8 3.8 6.2 2.2 22.9 ±3.1 pp 9.3
Nanos Research March 13, 2020 PDF 32.3 19.2 12.2 3.8 6.9 2.5 23.1 ±3.1 pp 13.1
Nanos Research March 6, 2020 PDF 32.6 20.6 12.3 3.8 6.1 2.1 22.6 ±3.1 pp 12.0
Nanos Research February 28, 2020 PDF 31.9 19.7 13.2 4.3 5.8 1.1 23.3 ±3.1 pp 12.2
Nanos Research February 14, 2020 PDF 34.0 21.0 12.4 3.4 5.3 1.5 22.3 ±3.1 pp 13.0
Nanos Research February 7, 2020 PDF 34.5 20.6 12.9 4.2 4.9 1.8 21.2 ±3.1 pp 13.9
Nanos Research January 31, 2020 PDF 33.3 20.1 13.2 5.1 5.1 2.2 21.0 ±3.1 pp 13.2
Nanos Research January 24, 2020 PDF 33.3 19.8 13.4 4.8 6.1 1.9 20.6 ±3.1 pp 13.5
Nanos Research January 17, 2020 PDF 32.8 19.6 13.0 4.9 6.2 2.5 21.1 ±3.1 pp 13.2
Nanos Research January 10, 2020 PDF 31.0 20.9 14.4 4.2 6.8 2.0 20.7 ±3.1 pp 10.1
Nanos Research January 3, 2020 PDF 32.2 21.1 15.1 3.3 6.4 1.7 20.1 ±3.1 pp 11.1
Nanos Research December 27, 2019 PDF 34.4 21.1 14.4 3.1 5.3 2.2 19.4 ±3.1 pp 13.3
Nanos Research December 20, 2019 PDF 36.0 21.0 15.9 2.8 6.4 1.7 16.2 ±3.1 pp 15.0
Nanos Research December 13, 2019 PDF 35.8 21.9 16.1 2.6 7.0 1.5 15.3 ±3.1 pp 13.9
Nanos Research December 6, 2019 PDF 36.6 22.0 15.4 3.1 7.0 1.4 14.6 ±3.1 pp 14.6
Nanos Research November 29, 2019 PDF 38.2 21.5 15.1 2.7 7.4 1.1 14.0 ±3.1 pp 16.7
Nanos Research November 22, 2019 PDF 35.1 22.0 15.4 3.1 7.0 2.1 15.3 ±3.1 pp 13.1
Nanos Research November 15, 2019 PDF 32.3 23.9 17.8 3.9 5.8 1.8 13.5 ±3.1 pp 8.4
Nanos Research November 8, 2019 PDF 31.1 24.9 19.0 3.4 6.2 2.0 13.5 ±3.1 pp 6.2
Nanos Research November 1, 2019 PDF 30.0 27.0 17.3 3.4 7.2 1.6 13.6 ±3.1 pp 3.0

See also

Notes
1 Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
2 Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
3 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
4 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
5 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
6 Percent voting intentions given in the report have been adjusted to reflect only decided/leaning voters for consistency among poll results in the table.
7 Party columns are ordered from largest to smallest share of the popular vote in the 2019 election, not according to the number of seats won.

    References
    1. "The battle to keep this country together will be harder in some provinces than others". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. October 27, 2019.
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