43rd Canadian federal election

43rd Canadian federal election
On or before October 21, 2019 (On or before October 21, 2019)
All 338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 14, 2013 May 27, 2017 October 1, 2017
Leader's seat Papineau Regina—Qu'Appelle Running in Burnaby South
Last election 184 seats, 39.47% 99 seats, 31.89% 44 seats, 19.71%
Current seats 182 96 41
Seats needed Steady Increase73 Increase129
 
MarioBeaulieuBCInterimLeader2018.jpg
Leader Mario Beaulieu
(Interim)		 Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party Bloc Québécois Green People's
Leader since June 13, 2018
(Interim until 2019)		 August 27, 2006 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat La Pointe-de-l'Île Saanich—Gulf Islands Beauce
Last election 10 seats, 4.66% 1 seat, 3.45% Pre-creation
Current seats 10 1 1
Seats needed Increase160 Increase169 Increase169
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

The 43rd Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election) is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. The October 21 date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date procedures in the Canada Elections Act but the Act does not preclude the Governor General of Canada from issuing the writs of election at an earlier date.[1]

Background

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election, and was succeeded by Parti Québécois MNA Martine Ouellet.[2] After losing a leadership review, Ouellet announced she would step down as Bloc leader on June 11, 2018.[3]

Due to Tom Mulcair failing his April 2016 leadership review by garnering only 48% of the delegate vote, the NDP held a leadership election on October 1, 2017, electing Ontario MPP and the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh as his successor.[4][5]

Electoral reform

In June 2015, Justin Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post."[6][7] As the New Democrats, Bloc, and Greens were all in favour of reform of some kind,[8] it was seen as possible that a different voting system would be in place the next federal election.

A Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed with representatives from all five parties in the House. The committee's report, Strengthening Democracy in Canada: Principles, Process and Public Engagement for Electoral Reform, was presented in December 2016 and recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum.[9][10] In February 2017, however, the government dropped support for electoral reform, issuing a mandate to newly appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, saying "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. ... Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate."[11]

Current standings

 Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada
Party Party leader Seats
2015 Current
Liberal Justin Trudeau 184 182
Conservative Andrew Scheer 99 96
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 44 41
Bloc Québécois Mario Beaulieu (interim) 10 10
Green Elizabeth May 1 1
People's Maxime Bernier — 1
Co-operative Commonwealth none[note 1] — 1
  Independent 0 2
  Vacant 4
Total 338 338

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2015 federal election.

Name Ideology Leader 2015 result Current
seats
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism		 Justin Trudeau 39.47%
184 / 338
182 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Federalism
Fiscal conservatism
Social conservatism		 Andrew Scheer 31.89%
99 / 338
96 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism		 Jagmeet Singh 19.71%
44 / 338
41 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec sovereigntism
Social democracy		 Mario Beaulieu
(Interim)		 4.66%
10 / 338
10 / 338
Green Green politics
Green liberalism		 Elizabeth May 3.45%
1 / 338
1 / 338
People's Conservatism
Right-libertarianism
Classical liberalism
Populism
Decentralization		 Maxime Bernier N/A
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:

Liberal Party

Conservative Party

New Democratic Party

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2015–2019)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner March 23, 2016[25] Jim Hillyer █ Conservative Death in office October 24, 2016[26] Glen Motz █ Conservative
Nunavut May 31, 2016[27] Hunter Tootoo █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1] █ Independent
Ottawa—Vanier August 16, 2016[28] Mauril Bélanger █ Liberal Death in office April 3, 2017 Mona Fortier █ Liberal
Calgary Heritage August 26, 2016[29] Stephen Harper █ Conservative Resignation April 3, 2017 Bob Benzen █ Conservative
Calgary Midnapore September 23, 2016[30] Jason Kenney █ Conservative Resignation[a 2] April 3, 2017 Stephanie Kusie █ Conservative
Saint-Laurent January 31, 2017[31] Stéphane Dion █ Liberal Resignation[a 3] April 3, 2017 Emmanuella Lambropoulos █ Liberal
Markham—Thornhill January 31, 2017 John McCallum █ Liberal Resignation[a 4] April 3, 2017 Mary Ng █ Liberal
Sturgeon River—Parkland July 4, 2017[32] Rona Ambrose █ Conservative Resignation October 23, 2017 Dane Lloyd █ Conservative
Lac-Saint-Jean August 9, 2017[33] Denis Lebel █ Conservative Resignation October 23, 2017[34] Richard Hébert █ Liberal
Calgary Skyview August 31, 2017[35] Darshan Kang █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 5] █ Independent
Scarborough—Agincourt September 14, 2017[36] Arnold Chan █ Liberal Death in office December 11, 2017[37] Jean Yip █ Liberal
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity September 30, 2017[38] Judy Foote █ Liberal Resignation[a 6] December 11, 2017 Churence Rogers █ Liberal
South Surrey—White Rock September 30, 2017[39] Dianne Watts █ Conservative Resignation[a 7] December 11, 2017 Gordon Hogg █ Liberal
Battlefords—Lloydminster October 2, 2017[40] Gerry Ritz █ Conservative Resignation December 11, 2017 Rosemarie Falk █ Conservative
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord December 1, 2017[41] Denis Lemieux █ Liberal Resignation June 18, 2018[42] Richard Martel █ Conservative
Terrebonne February 28, 2018[43][44] Michel Boudrias █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
June 6, 2018[45] █ Bloc Québécois
Rivière-du-Nord February 28, 2018 Rhéal Fortin █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[46] █ Bloc Québécois
Mirabel February 28, 2018 Simon Marcil █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
June 6, 2018 █ Bloc Québécois
Repentigny February 28, 2018 Monique Pauzé █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[46] █ Bloc Québécois
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel February 28, 2018 Louis Plamondon █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[46] █ Bloc Québécois
Joliette February 28, 2018 Gabriel Ste-Marie █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[46] █ Bloc Québécois
Montcalm February 28, 2018 Luc Thériault █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[46] █ Bloc Québécois
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes May 2, 2018[47] Gord Brown █ Conservative Death in office
Regina—Lewvan May 3, 2018[48] Erin Weir █ New Democratic Removed from caucus[a 8] May 11, 2018[49] █ CCF
Outremont August 3, 2018[50] Tom Mulcair █ New Democratic Resignation
Beauce August 23, 2018[51] Maxime Bernier █ Conservative Resigned from caucus █ Independent
September 14, 2018 █ People's
Burnaby South September 14, 2018[52] Kennedy Stewart █ New Democratic Resignation[a 9]
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill September 17, 2018[53] Leona Alleslev █ Liberal Changed affiliation █ Conservative
York—Simcoe September 30, 2018[54] Peter Van Loan █ Conservative Resignation

2015

2016

  • April 10, 2016: 52% of delegates at the 2016 NDP convention voted in support of a leadership review motion to hold a leadership election within 24 months.[4] Party leader Tom Mulcair announces he will stay on as leader until his replacement is chosen.[60]
  • September 9, 2016: Strength in Democracy, a party which had three incumbent MPs among its 17 candidates in the last election is deregistered by Elections Canada for failure to file papers maintaining its party status.[61]

2017

2018

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions during the pre-campaign period of the 43rd Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and margin of error. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. -- Source code for plot generation is available here.

Candidates

Election spending

Before the campaign, there were no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.[68]

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.[69]

Registered third parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[70] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[71]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The Co-operative Commonwealth Federation was disbanded in 1961 to join the New Democratic Party. As such, it is not registered with Elections Canada and does not have a leader. Erin Weir, MP for Regina—Lewvan, changed his party affiliation to CCF following his expulsion from the NDP caucus in 2018. This self-identification is for parliamentary purposes only and does not carry any weight for electoral purposes.[12]

References

  1. ↑ "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  2. 1 2 "Bloc Québécois' new leader: Who is Martine Ouellet?". The Montreal Gazette. Retrieved March 14, 2017.
  3. 1 2 Tunney, Catharine (June 4, 2018). "Embattled Bloc Québécois leader Martine Ouellet resigns". CBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  4. 1 2 Kirkup, Kristy (10 April 2016). "NDP rejects Mulcair as leader, votes in support of holding leadership race". Ottawa Citizen. Canadian Press. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
  5. 1 2 Kirkup, Kristy (October 1, 2017). "Jagmeet Singh named leader of the federal NDP". CTV News. Retrieved October 1, 2017.
  6. ↑ John Geddes. "Can Justin Trudeau fix the vote with electoral reform?". Macleans.ca. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
  7. ↑ "Justin Trudeau unveils Liberal platform". CBC Player. 6 January 2016. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
  8. ↑ "Mulcair Promises Proportional Representation If NDP Wins". The Huffington Post. 2 January 2015. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
  9. ↑ Wherry, Aaron (December 1, 2016). "Electoral reform committee recommends referendum on proportional representation, but Liberals disagree". CBC News.
  10. ↑ Bryden, Joan (December 1, 2016). "Liberal MPs urge Prime Minister to break promise of new voting system by next election". Ottawa Citizen.
  11. ↑ Wherry, Aaron. "Trudeau government abandons promise of electoral reform". CBC News. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
  12. ↑ Marotta, Stefanie (May 11, 2018). "Erin Weir declares himself a member of the CCF - a party that no longer exists". CBC News. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  13. ↑ Gunn, Andrea (September 14, 2018). "Bill Casey plans to retire next year". Truro Daily News. Retrieved September 16, 2018.
  14. 1 2 Moss, Neil (3 October 2018). "A Liberal and a Tory join swelling list of MPs sitting out next election". Hill Times. Retrieved 5 October 2018.
  15. ↑ "Eglinski not seeking re-election"
  16. ↑ "John Ivison: Shunned 'values' crusader Kellie Leitch's political career comes to its inevitable end". National Post. 2018-01-24. Retrieved 2018-01-24.
  17. ↑ "Long-time Conservative MP Bev Shipley will not seek re-election". CBC. 2018-07-09. Retrieved 2018-07-09.
  18. ↑ CBC News (7 May 2018). "Dauphin-area MP Robert Sopuck won't run in 2019 election". Retrieved 8 May 2018.
  19. ↑ "Van Kesteren won't seek re-election", London Free Press, January 5, 2018
  20. ↑ "David Christopherson, long-time Hamilton Centre MP, says he won't run again". CBC News. 5 July 2018. Retrieved 5 July 2018.
  21. ↑ "News to share: my plans for 2019". Facebook. 28 August 2018. Retrieved 28 August 2018.
  22. ↑ Vastel, Marie (9 July 2018). "Hélène Laverdière, du NPD, quitte la politique fédérale". Le Devoir. Retrieved 9 July 2018.
  23. ↑ "NDP MP Irene Mathyssen announces retirement". CBC News. 27 August 2018. Retrieved 27 August 2018.
  24. ↑ Rycekewaert, Laura (2 July 2018). "Political parties busy laying groundwork this summer for 2019 election, Conservatives already ahead". The Hill Times. Retrieved 5 July 2018. NDP MPs Romeo Saganash (Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Que.) and Kennedy Stewart (Burnaby South, B.C.) have already announced they aren't running for re-election.
  25. ↑ "Alberta Conservative MP Jim Hillyer dies at age 41". Toronto Star. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
  26. ↑ Bell, David (October 24, 2016). "Conservative Glen Motz thanks Trudeau after winning Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner byelection". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  27. ↑ "Hunter Tootoo resigns as fisheries minister, leaves Liberal caucus". CBC News. May 31, 2016. Retrieved May 31, 2016.
  28. ↑ "Liberal MP Mauril Bélanger dies at 61". CTV News. August 16, 2016. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
  29. ↑ Levitz, Stephanie (August 26, 2016). "Stephen Harper gives up House of Commons seat". CBC News. Retrieved August 26, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Jason Kenney to resign federal seat next week". CBC News. September 13, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2016.
  31. ↑ Zimonjic, Peter (January 31, 2017). "Stéphane Dion accepts role as ambassador to EU and Germany, as he and John McCallum depart House". CBC News. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  32. ↑ "Rona Ambrose formally resigns as Conservative MP after serving for 13 years". CBC News. July 4, 2017. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  33. ↑ Grenier, Éric (June 20, 2017). "Denis Lebel's departure to put Andrew Scheer's Conservative leadership to tough electoral test". CBC News. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  34. ↑ "Liberals win Lac-Saint-Jean for first time since 1980". Montreal Gazette. October 24, 2017. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  35. ↑ "Calgary MP Darshan Kang resigns from Liberal caucus amid sexual harassment allegations - Toronto Star". thestar.com. Retrieved 1 September 2017.
  36. ↑ Campion-Smith, Bruce (September 14, 2017). "Scarborough MP Arnold Chan dies of cancer". Toronto Star. Retrieved September 14, 2017.
  37. ↑ "Four federal by-elections across Canada to be held in December". The Globe and Mail. November 5, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  38. ↑ "Judy Foote to step down as MP on Saturday". The Telegram. September 27, 2017. Retrieved September 29, 2017.
  39. ↑ "Dianne Watts enters BC Liberal leadership race, will resign as Tory MP". CBC News. September 24, 2017. Retrieved September 29, 2017.
  40. ↑ Aiello, Rachel (August 31, 2017). "Long-time Conservative MP Gerry Ritz resigns, not running to lead Saskatchewan Party". CTV News. Retrieved August 31, 2017.
  41. ↑ "Quebec member of Parliament Denis Lemieux resigns seat". CBC News. November 6, 2017. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  42. ↑ "Le conservateur Richard Martel élu député fédéral de Chicoutimi–Le Fjord". Journal De Quebec. Agence QMI. 19 June 2018. Retrieved 19 June 2018.
  43. 1 2 Allard, Clement (February 28, 2018). "Seven of 10 Bloc Quebecois MPs quit over Martine Ouellet's leadership". The Globe and Mail. The Canadian Press. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  44. 1 2 Ballingall, Alex (February 28, 2018). "Seven of 10 Bloc Québécois MPs quit caucus in protest of leader Martine Ouellet". Toronto Star. Ottawa. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  45. 1 2 3 "Two of seven MPs who quit the Bloc Quebecois returning to the party". The Canadian Press. June 6, 2018. Retrieved June 6, 2018.
  46. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "5 Bloc Québécois MPs who quit party returning to the fold". CBC News. September 17, 2018. Retrieved September 17, 2018.
  47. ↑ Harris, Kathleen (May 2, 2018). "'Incredibly decent man': Conservative MP Gord Brown dies after heart attack in Parliament Hill office". Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  48. ↑ Tunney, Catharine (3 May 2018). "MP Erin Weir expelled from NDP caucus after harassment investigation". CBC News. Retrieved 4 May 2018.
  49. ↑ Marotta, Stefanie (May 11, 2018). "Erin Weir declares himself a member of the CCF - a party that no longer exists". CBC News. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  50. ↑ Tasker, John Paul (December 18, 2017). "Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair leaving federal politics in June". Retrieved December 18, 2017.
  51. ↑ Tunney, Catharine (August 23, 2018). "MP Maxime Bernier quits Conservative Party". CBC News. Retrieved August 23, 2018.
  52. ↑ Laanela, Mike (May 10, 2018). "Kennedy Stewart confirms he will run for mayor of Vancouver as independent". Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  53. ↑ Tasker, John Paul (September 17, 2018). "Toronto-area Liberal MP Leona Alleslev crosses the floor to join Conservatives". CBC News. Retrieved September 17, 2018.
  54. ↑ "Peter Van Loan, former House Leader under Stephen Harper, retiring". Toronto Star. Canadian Press. July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
  55. ↑ "Stephen Harper resigns as Conservative leader". CTV News. October 19, 2015. Retrieved October 19, 2015.
  56. ↑ Perreaux, Les (October 22, 2015). "Bloc leader Duceppe, former PQ interim leader both resign". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  57. ↑ "Lifting the curtain on Harper's covert exit strategy". Ottawa Citizen. October 28, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
  58. ↑ "Rona Ambrose named interim leader of the Conservative Party of Canada". The National Post. November 5, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  59. ↑ Mehler Paperny, Anna (November 4, 2015). "Canada's parliament will reconvene in December". Global News. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  60. ↑ Wherry, Aaron (April 10, 2016). "NDP votes in favour of holding new leadership race". CBC News. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
  61. ↑ Grenier, Éric (September 9, 2016). "Start-up party Strength in Democracy deregistered by Elections Canada". CBC News. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
  62. ↑ "Andrew Scheer is the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada". National Post. Retrieved May 27, 2017.
  63. ↑ Milewski, Terry (May 15, 2016). "NDP sets leadership convention for fall of 2017". CBC News. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  64. ↑ Marotta, Stefanie (May 9, 2018). "Bloc rebels announce new party name and abandon the separatist program". CBC News. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  65. ↑
  66. ↑ "Maxime Bernier launches the People's Party of Canada". September 14, 2018. Retrieved September 14, 2018.
  67. ↑ "Toronto-area Liberal MP Leona Alleslev crosses the floor to join Conservatives". September 17, 2018. Retrieved September 17, 2018.
  68. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – Third Party Election Advertising Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
  69. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – The Electoral System of Canada". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
  70. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – Election advertising handbook for Third Parties, Financial Agents and Auditors (EC 20227) – July 2015". elections.ca. Archived from the original on August 15, 2015. Retrieved August 10, 2015.
  71. ↑ "Elections Canada Online – Limits on Election Advertising Expenses Incurred by Third Parties". elections.ca. Archived from the original on August 15, 2015. Retrieved August 10, 2015.
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