Burlington mayoral election, 2009

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The city of Burlington, Vermont held a mayoral election on March 3, 2009, the second election since the city approved instant-runoff voting (IRV) for use in mayoral elections in 2005.^[1] The incumbent mayor Bob Kiss, who had served since 2006, ran for reelection as the VT Progressive candidate.^[2] Unlike Burlington's first IRV mayoral election in 2006, the IRV winner in 2009 (Bob Kiss) was neither the same as the plurality winner (Republican candidate Kurt Wright) nor the Condorcet winner (Democratic candidate Andy Montroll).^[3][4] The results caused a post-election controversy regarding the IRV method,^[5] such that IRV was repealed in March 2010 by a vote of 52% to 48%.^[6][7][8]

Instant-runoff voting in Burlington

The city of Burlington, Vermont approved IRV for use in mayoral elections with a 64% vote in 2005, ^[9] at a time when IRV was only used in a few local elections in the United States^[10]. The 2006 Burlington mayoral race was decided after two rounds of IRV tallying, selecting candidate Bob Kiss of the Vermont Progressive Party (VPP). In the election, Kiss prevailed over opponents Hinda Miller, Democrat, and Kevin Curley, Republican. With his election Kiss became the second member of the VPP to be elected to the office (Peter Clavelle was the first).

Candidates

• Bob Kiss (P), incumbent mayor seeking second term
• Andy Montroll (D), current City Councilor
• Dan Smith (I), lawyer
• James Simpson (G), owner of human-powered transportation services company in Burlington
• Kurt Wright (R), current City Councilor and State Representative

Results

Unlike Burlington's first IRV mayoral election in 2006, the mayoral race in 2009 was decided in three rounds. Bob Kiss won the election, receiving 28.8% of the vote in the first round, and receiving 48% in the final round, defeating final challenger Kurt Wright (who received more votes than Kiss in the earlier rounds, but only received 45.2% in the final round).

The elimination rounds were as follows:^[11][12]

Analysis of the 2009 election

The election is considered a success by IRV advocates such as FairVote, since it prevented the election of the presumed winner under a plurality system by avoiding the effect of vote-splitting between the other candidates,^[13] was easy for voters to understand,^[14] avoided the need for traditional runoffs,^[14][15] and "contributed to producing a campaign among four serious candidates that was widely praised for its substantive nature."^[13]

Critics claimed the system is convoluted,^[15] did nothing to increase voter turnout,^[15] turned voting into a "gambling game" due to non-monotonicity,^[16][17][18] and "eliminated the most popular moderate candidate and elected an extremist".^[17] The election did demonstrate that voters are capable of using ranked-choice ballots, with 99.99% of the ballots filled out correctly,^[13] though this includes 16% of voters who bullet-voted for only one candidate.^[19]

Moreover, the election is considered a failure of IRV by other voting reform advocates, because the Condorcet winner^{[16][20][21][22][23]} (and likely most-approved/highest-rated) candidate did not win.^[24][25] The IRV winner in 2009 (incumbent and VT Progressive candidate Bob Kiss) was neither the same as the plurality winner (Republican candidate Kurt Wright) nor the Condorcet winner (Democratic candidate Andy Montroll).^[26][27]

Pairwise preference combinations:^[24][28]

This leads to an overall preference ranking of:^[28]

1. Montroll - defeats all candidates below, including Kiss (4067 to 3477)
2. Kiss - defeats all candidates below, including Wright (4314 to 4064)
3. Wright - defeats all candidates below, including Smith (3975 to 3793)
4. Smith - defeats Simpson (5573 to 721) and the write-in candidates
5. Simpson - defeats only the write-in candidates (3338 to 165 for all write-in candidates combined)

Hypothetical results under various voting systems:^[25][28][24]

• Wright would have won under plurality, if the electorate voted honestly for their 1st choice.
• Kiss won under IRV, and would have won under a two-round system vs Wright.
• Montroll would have won if the ballots were counted using Borda count, Bucklin, Coombs, Keener-Eigenvector, Sinkhorn, or any Condorcet method (Schulze, Ranked pairs, Copeland, etc.) Montroll would also likely have won using ratings systems like Score, Approval, or IRNR.^[25][24]

Repeal of IRV in Burlington

There was post-election controversy regarding the IRV method, leading to the repeal of IRV in Burlington.^[29] In late 2009, a group of several Democrats (who supported Republican Kurt Wright) led a signature drive to force a referendum on the election method.^[30] According to a local columnist, the vote was a referendum on Mayor Kiss, who was a "lame duck" because of a scandal relating to Burlington Telecom and other local issues.^[15] However, in an interview with Vermont Public Radio, Mayor Kiss disputed that claim,^[31] and those gathering signatures for the repeal stated that it was specifically a rejection of IRV.^[15] IRV was repealed in March 2010 by a vote of 52% to 48%.^[32][33][34]

The repeal reverted the system back to a 40% rule that requires a top-two runoff if no candidate exceeds 40% of the vote. Had the 2009 election occurred under these rules, Kiss and Wright would have advanced to the runoff. If the same voters had participated in the runoff as in the first election and not changed their preferences, Kiss would have won the runoff.^[35] In 2011, an initiative effort to increase the winning threshold from the 40% plurality to a 50% majority failed.

References

External links

• City's website
• Ballot data: 2009 Mayor Reports, see 2009 Burlington Mayor Final Piles Report.txt