Japanese House of Councillors election, 2019

Japanese House of Councillors election, 2019
July 2019
121 (of the 242) seats in the House of Councillors
122 seats needed for a majority

 
Leader Shinzō Abe Natsuo Yamaguchi Yuichiro Tamaki
Party Liberal Democratic Komeito Democratic for the People
Leader since 26 September 2012 8 September 2009 7 May 2018[1]
Last election 121 seats, 35.91% 25 seats, 13.52% New party
Current seats 125 25 24
 
Leader Yukio Edano Kazuo Shii Ichirō Matsui
Party Constitutional Democratic Communist Ishin
Leader since 2 October 2017 24 November 2000 2 November 2015
Last election New party 14 seats, 10.74% 12 seats, 9.20%
Current seats 17 14 11
 
Leader Ichirō Ozawa Shigefumi Matsuzawa Seiji Mataichi
Party Liberal Kibō Social Democratic
Leader since 25 January 2013 7 May 2018 25 February 2018
Last election 2 seats, 1.91% New party 2 seats, 2.74%
Current seats 4 3 2
Incumbent President of the House of Councillors

Chuichi Date
Liberal Democratic

The 25th regular election of members of the House of Councillors (dai-nijūgo-kai Sangiin giin tsūjō senkyo, 第25回参議院議員通常選挙) will be held on July 2019 to elect 121 of the 242 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the 717-member bicameral National Diet of Japan, for a term of six years.

76 members will be elected by single non-transferable vote (SNTV)/First-past-the-post (FPTP) voting in 45 multi- and single-member prefectural electoral districts. The nationwide district will elect 48 members by D'Hondt proportional representation with most open lists.

Background

The term of members elected in the 2013 regular election (including those elected in subsequent by-elections or as runners-up) ends on July 28, 2019. Under the "Public Offices Election Act" (kōshoku-senkyo-hō), the regular election must be held within 30 days before that date, or under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, between 24 and 30 days after the closure of the session and thus potentially somewhat after the actual end of term.[2]

Going into the election, the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito controls a two-thirds super-majority of seats in the House of Representatives but did not control a similar super-majority of seats in the House of Councillors, necessary to initiate amendments of the Constitution of Japan.

Pre-election composition

(as of March 15, 2018)[3]

↓
44 32 6 8 11 70 14 57
Opposition seats not up O seats up RO RO up K up LDP-PJK seats up K LDP-PJK seats not up

In the class of members facing re-election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Kōmeitō and Party for Japanese Kokoro (PJK) had a combined 81 of 121 seats (as of March 2018).[3] The governing coalition would have to lose 30 seats or more to forfeit its overall majority in the House of Councillors and face a technically divided Diet. However, as independents and minor opposition groups might be willing to support the government on a regular basis without inclusion in the cabinet, the losses required to face an actual divided Diet may have been much higher. If the Diet is divided after the election, the coalition's two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives can still override the House of Councillors and pass legislation, but certain Diet decisions, notably the approval of certain nominations by the cabinet such as public safety commission members or Bank of Japan governor, would require the cooperation of at least part of the opposition or an expansion of the ruling coalition.

Among the members facing re-election were House of Councillors President Chuichi Date (LDP, Hokkaido), Kōmeitō leader Natsuo Yamaguchi (K, Tokyo) and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko (LDP, Wakayama).

District reapportionment

The following districts saw a change in their representation within the House at this election. One set of reforms were introduced in 2012 and first took effect at the 2013 election. The districts below are affected by the 2015 reforms, which started to take effect in the 2016 election.

In May 2018, the government announced that they are planning to introduce a revision into the Public Offices Election Law before the 2019 election. The proposed changes will increase the number seats in the House by 6, 2 seats in the Saitama at-large district and 4 in the national PR block. As Saitama currently has the highest voters-to-councillor ratio, the increase would reduce its ratio gap with the least populous district (below the constitutional 3 to 1 limit). Meanwhile the seat increase in the PR block is aimed to address the absence of representation of prefectures in the merged-prefecture districts (namely Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kōchi) and popular discontent in those prefectures. The plan will also introduce a ranking system for the PR lists. This would essentially change it from a most open list system into a less open list system, mirroring the one used in the House of Representatives elections. To reduce the chance of the non-representation of a prefecture, candidates from prefectures not running in the merged districts will be prioritised on the list.[4]

Under the plan, the new Saitama seat and two new PR seats would be contested in 2019, while the other three would be contested in 2022.

DistrictMagnitudeNotes
Hokkaidō3Increased from 2
Miyagi1Decreased from 2
Tokyo6Increased from 5
Niigata1Decreased from 2
Nagano1Decreased from 2
Aichi4Increased from 3
Hyogo3Increased from 2
Tottori-Shimane1Created from the merger of the single-member Tottori and Shimane districts
Tokushima-Kōchi1Created from the merger of the single-member Tokushima and Kochi districts
Fukuoka3Increased from 2


References

  1. ↑ Sole leader since 4 September 2018.
  2. ↑ e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法, chapter 5 (election dates), article 32 (regular elections)
  3. 1 2 House of Councillors: Members Strength of the Political Groups in the House (only caucus totals and female members; full Japanese version partitioned by class/end of term and election segment 会派別所属議員数一覧)
  4. ↑ Hisanaga, Ryuichi (29 May 2018). "LDP compiles plan to revise Upper House election system". Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved 30 May 2018.
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