Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
In the run up to the next United Kingdom general election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
| 2015 general election • Opinion polls |
| 2017 general election • Opinion polls |
| 2019 general election • Opinion polls |
| Next general election • Opinion polls |
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 12 December 2019, to the present day. Under current fixed-term legislation, the next general election is scheduled to be held in May 2024,[1] though the government has pledged to repeal this law.[2] Should this happen, a new law would be required to establish a term length limit, as the preceding legislation is no longer in force.[3]
Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, since its major political parties are different from those in the rest of the United Kingdom.
Graphical summary
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).
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National poll results
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. In the instance a pollster does not provide a result for a party, that party will be displayed with a '–'.
The parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2019 general election are listed here. Other parties are listed in the "Other" column.
2020
| Pollster | Client | Dates conducted |
Area | Sample size |
Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP | Plaid Cymru | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinium | The Observer | 25–26 Jun | GB | 2,001 | 43% | 39% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 4% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 1] | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 25 Jun | GB | 2,000 | 44% | 38% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 4% | – | 2% | 6% |
| Survation | N/A | 24–25 Jun | UK | 2,003 | 43% | 36% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 18–19 Jun | GB | 2,001 | 44% | 40% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 18 Jun | GB | 2,000 | 43% | 38% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 4% | – | 3% | 5% |
| Kantar | N/A | 11–15 Jun | GB | 1,124 | 43% | 35% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1%[lower-alpha 2] | 8% |
| SavantaComRes | The Daily Telegraph | 12–14 Jun | UK | 2,106 | 40% | 36% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 11–12 Jun | GB | 2,001 | 44% | 39% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 2% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 5% |
| YouGov | The Times | 11–12 Jun | GB | 1,693 | 45% | 37% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 11 Jun | GB | 1,500 | 41% | 39% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 4% | – | 2% | 2% |
| Survation | N/A | 9–10 Jun | UK | 1,062 | 42% | 36% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 5–10 Jun | GB | 1,059 | 43% | 38% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 4–5 Jun | GB | 2,002 | 43% | 40% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 3% |
| Deltapoll | N/A | 4–5 Jun | GB | 1,547 | 41% | 38% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3%[lower-alpha 1] | 3% |
| Survation | N/A | 3 Jun | UK | 1,018 | 41% | 39% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 3 Jun | GB | 1,500 | 43% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 5% | – | 3% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Times | 29–30 May | GB | 1,650 | 45% | 35% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 28–29 May | GB | 2,012 | 43% | 39% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 2] | 4% |
| Deltapoll | The Mail on Sunday | 27–28 May | GB | 1,557 | 43% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 27 May | GB | 1,500 | 43% | 37% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 3% | – | 3% | 6% |
| YouGov | DatapraxisEU | 26–27 May | GB | 2,029 | 43% | 38% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Times | 25–26 May | GB | 1,629 | 44% | 38% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| Survation | N/A | 22–26 May | UK | 1,040 | 46% | 33% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 13% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 21–22 May | GB | 2,008 | 47% | 35% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 3% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 1] | 12% |
| YouGov | The Times | 18–19 May | GB | 1,718 | 48% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 15% |
| SavantaComRes | N/A | 15–17 May | GB | 2,079 | 46% | 33% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 15 May | GB | 1,500 | 47% | 35% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 3% | – | 2% | 12% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 13–14 May | GB | 1,062 | 49% | 34% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | – | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 15% |
| Kantar Public | N/A | 5–11 May | GB | 1,130 | 51% | 32% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 19% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 5–7 May | GB | 1,053 | 49% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 16% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 6 May | GB | 1,500 | 50% | 31% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 5% | – | 3% | 19% |
| YouGov | The Times | 5–6 May | GB | 1,667 | 50% | 30% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 20% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 27 Apr – 1 May | GB | 1,072 | 51% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 18% |
| Survation | N/A | 27–28 Apr | UK | 1,023 | 48% | 31% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 17% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 26 Apr | GB | 1,500 | 50% | 33% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 4% | – | 1% | 17% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 21–23 Apr | GB | 2,000 | 50% | 33% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 17% |
| Kantar Public | N/A | 16–20 Apr | GB | 1,118 | 54% | 28% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 26% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 17 Apr | GB | 1,500 | 52% | 31% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 3% | – | 2% | 21% |
| YouGov | The Times | 16–17 Apr | GB | 2,015 | 53% | 32% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 21% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 15–17 Apr | GB | 2,000 | 51% | 32% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 19% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 7–9 Apr | GB | 2,005 | 55% | 29% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 26% |
| BMG | The Independent | 7–9 Apr | GB | 1,541 | 46% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 17% |
| Keir Starmer is elected leader of the Labour Party | |||||||||||||
| Opinium | The Observer | 1–3 Apr | GB | 2,000 | 53% | 30% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 23% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 1–2 Apr | UK | 2,000 | 49% | 29% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 4% | – | 5% | 20% |
| YouGov | The Times | 1–2 Apr | GB | 1,631 | 52% | 28% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 24% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 26–27 Mar | GB | 2,006 | 54% | 28% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 26% |
| Number Cruncher Politics | Bloomberg | 24–26 Mar | GB | 1,010 | 54% | 28% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 26% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 23 Mar | GB | 1,500 | 47% | 29% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 5% | – | 5% | 18% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 19–20 Mar | GB | 2,005 | 51% | 31% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 20% |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 13–16 Mar | GB | 1,003 | 52% | 30% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 22% |
| 2020 local elections delayed to 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic[4] | |||||||||||||
| Opinium | The Observer | 12–13 Mar | GB | 2,005 | 49% | 32% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 3%[lower-alpha 1] | 17% |
| Kantar Public | N/A | 5–9 Mar | GB | 1,171 | 50% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 21% |
| BMG | The Independent | 3–6 Mar | GB | 1,498 | 45% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 2%[lower-alpha 2] | 17% |
| SavantaComRes | Sunday Express | 19–20 Feb | GB | 2,005 | 47% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | <1% | 16% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 12–14 Feb | GB | 2,007 | 47% | 32% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 12 Feb | GB | 1,216 | 49% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | – | 2% | 18% |
| YouGov | The Times | 9–10 Feb | GB | 1,694 | 48% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 20% |
| BMG | The Independent | 4–7 Feb | GB | 1,503 | 41% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 3%[lower-alpha 1] | 12% |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 31 Jan – 3 Feb | GB | 1,001 | 47% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Times | 31 Jan – 2 Feb | GB | 1,575 | 49% | 30% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 19% |
| The United Kingdom leaves the European Union | |||||||||||||
| Survation | N/A | 30–31 Jan | UK | 1,015 | 44% | 33% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 11% |
| YouGov | The Times | 24–26 Jan | GB | 1,628 | 49% | 29% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 20% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 15–17 Jan | GB | 1,978 | 47% | 30% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 17% |
| BMG | The Independent | 8–10 Jan | GB | 1,508 | 44% | 29% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 2%[lower-alpha 1] | 15% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | UK | – | 43.6% | 32.1% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 11.5% | |
| GB | 44.7% | 32.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 11.8% | ||||
Nations and regions polling
London
| Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Queen Mary University of London | 2–6 Mar 2020 | 1,002 | 46% | 34% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 48.1% | 32% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 16.1% | |
Scotland
| Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 51% | 21% | 19% | 6% | 2% | – | <1% | 30% |
| Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 50% | 26% | 17% | 5% | 2% | – | <1% | 24% |
| YouGov | N/A | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 51% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 26% |
| Panelbase | Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 48% | 27% | 16% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 21% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 45.0% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 19.9% | |
Wales
| Pollster | Client | Dates conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dem | Brexit | Green | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 39% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 4% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 3–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 34% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 12% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 36% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 40.9% | 36.1% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.8% | |
See also
- Leadership approval opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election
- Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–present)
Notes
- Including 2% for the UK Independence Party
- Including 1% for the UK Independence Party
References
- Tufft, Ben (8 May 2015). "When will the next UK General Election be held?". The Independent. Retrieved 29 December 2019.
The act specifies that future elections will be held on the first Thursday of May, every five years.
- "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
- Hazell, Robert (5 February 2020). "Can Boris Johnson simply repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act?". The Constitution Unit.
- "English local elections postponed over coronavirus". 13 March 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
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| Leadership approval | |||||||||
| European elections | |||||||||
| Referendums |
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| Issues | |||||||||
| Devolved legislatures |
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