Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Under the Scottish Elections (Dates) Act 2016, the next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021.[1]
Graphical summary
The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.
Average 30 day trend line of poll results for the next Scottish Parliament election, expected on 6 May 2021. Results from 5 May 2016 to 8 May 2020
Key
SNP – Scottish National Party
Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
Labour – Scottish Labour
Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
Green – Scottish Greens
UKIP – UK Independence Party
Brexit Party
SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
Constituency vote
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.
Graphical summary
.png)
Poll results
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
SNP | Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 53% | 16% | 21% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 32% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 53% | 15% | 23% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 1% | 30% |
| YouGov | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 54% | 12% | 23% | 8% | 2% | – | – | 1% | 31% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 51% | 14% | 26% | 6% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 25% |
| Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | |||||||||||
| The UK leaves the European Union | |||||||||||
| Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 28–31 Jan 2020 | 1,016 | 50% | 14% | 26% | 7% | 3% | – | – | <1% | 24% |
| Survation/Progress Scotland | 20–22 Jan 2020 | 1,019 | 51% | 17% | 23% | 7% | – | – | – | 1% | 28% |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||
| Panelbase/Sunday Times | 3–6 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 43% | 19% | 26% | 8% | 2% | – | 2% | <1% | 17% |
| YouGov/The Times | 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 | 1,002 | 46% | 14% | 26% | 11% | 1% | – | 0% | 0% [nb 1] | 20% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 20–22 Nov 2019 | 1,009 | 43% | 17% | 26% | 9% | 2% | – | 3% | <1% | 17% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 9–11 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 42% | 19% | 21% | 10% | 3% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 21% |
| YouGov/The Times | 29 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 | 1,059 | 45% | 13% | 23% | 12% | 2% | – | 3% | 1% [nb 1] | 22% |
| Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | |||||||||||
| Lorna Slater becomes co-leader of the Scottish Green Party alongside Patrick Harvie | |||||||||||
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 18–20 Jun 2019 | 1,024 | 42% | 16% | 20% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 7% | <1% [nb 2] | 22% |
| 2019 European Parliament election | |||||||||||
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 41% | 18% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 1% [nb 3] | 21% |
| YouGov/The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 46% | 16% | 22% | 7% | 3% | – | 4% | 1% [nb 3] | 24% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 2% [nb 4] | 18% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 | 1,002 | 41% | 19% | 27% | 8% | 3% | 2% | – | <1% | 14% |
| Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1–4 Mar 2019 | 1,011 | 43% | 22% | 24% | 9% | – | – | – | 2% | 19% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 | 1,028 | 41% | 23% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | <1% | 16% |
| Panelbase/Constitutional Commission | 2–7 Nov 2018 | 1,050 | 39% | 24% | 27% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | <1% | 12% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 18–21 Oct 2018 | 1,017 | 38% | 25% | 26% | 9% | 1% | – | – | 0% | 12% |
| Survation/SNP | 3–5 Oct 2018 | 1,013 | 44% | 23% | 24% | 8% | – | – | – | 1% | 20% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 | 1,024 | 41% | 21% | 26% | 6% | 3% | 2% | – | <1% | 15% |
| Survation/The Sunday Post | 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 | 1,036 | 43% | 23% | 24% | 9% | – | – | – | 2% | 19% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 5–10 Jul 2018 | 1,004 | 44% | 21% | 24% | 9% | – | – | – | 3% | 20% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 21–27 Jun 2018 | 1,018 | 41% | 22% | 27% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | <1% | 14% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 8–13 Jun 2018 | 1,021 | 40% | 24% | 28% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 12% |
| YouGov/The Times | 1–5 Jun 2018 | 1,075 | 41% | 22% | 27% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | 14% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 23–28 Mar 2018 | 1,037 | 40% | 22% | 28% | 6% | 3% | <1% | – | <1% | 12% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 24–28 Jan 2018 | 1,029 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 6% | – | – | – | 2% | 17% |
| YouGov/The Times | 12–16 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 38% | 23% | 26% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – | 0% | 12% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 15–20 Dec 2017 | 1,022 | 39% | 25% | 26% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 13% |
| Survation/The Sunday Post | 1–5 Dec 2017 | 1,006 | 39% | 28% | 24% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 11% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 27–30 Nov 2017 | 1,017 | 39% | 25% | 24% | 8% | – | – | – | 3% | 14% |
| Richard Leonard becomes leader of Scottish Labour[2] | |||||||||||
| YouGov/The Times | 2–5 Oct 2017 | 1,135 | 42% | 25% | 25% | 5% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | 17% |
| Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 8–12 Sep 2017 | 1,016 | 42% | 25% | 26% | 7% | – | – | – | 2% | 16% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 31 Aug – 7 Sep 2017 | 1,021 | 42% | 22% | 28% | 6% | 2% | <1% | – | <1% | 14% |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election[3] | |||||||||||
| YouGov/The Times | 9–14 Mar 2017 | 1,028 | 51% | 14% | 24% | 6% | 4% | 1% | – | 1% | 27% |
| YouGov/The Times | 24–29 Nov 2016 | 1,134 | 48% | 15% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 1% | – | 0% | 23% |
| BMG | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 | 1,010 | 51% | 18% | 21% | 7% | – | – | – | 3% | 30% |
| YouGov/The Times | 29–31 Aug 2016 | 1,039 | 52% | 16% | 21% | 5% | 3% | 2% | – | 0% | 31% |
| Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 24–28 Jun 2016 | 1,055 | 50% | 18% | 21% | 8% | – | – | – | 4% | 29% |
| 2016 Scottish Parliament election | 5 May 2016 | – | 46.5% | 22.6% | 22.0% | 7.8% | 0.6% | – | – | 0.5% | 23.9% |
Regional vote
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.
Graphical summary
.png)
Poll results
| Pollster/client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Green | Lib Dem | UKIP | Brexit | SSP | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1–5 Jun 2020 | 1,022 | 48% | 19% | 16% | 7% | 8% | – | – | – | 2% | 29% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 48% | 22% | 15% | 7% | 6% | – | – | – | 1% | 26% |
| YouGov | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 45% | 23% | 12% | 8% | 7% | – | – | 4% | 1% | 22% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 48% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 6% | – | – | – | 1% | 22% |
| Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||||||||
| The UK leaves the European Union | ||||||||||||
| Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 28–31 Jan 2020 | 1,016 | 47% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 7% | – | – | – | <1% | 22% |
| Survation/Progress Scotland | 20–22 Jan 2020 | 1,019 | 38% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 9% | 1% | 2% | – | 0% | 17% |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | ||||||||||||
| Panelbase/Sunday Times | 3–6 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 38% | 26% | 18% | 6% | 9% | – | 2% | – | – | 12% |
| YouGov/The Times | 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 | 1,002 | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 3% | <1% [nb 1] | 12% |
| Panelbase/Sunday Times | 20–22 Nov 2019 | 1,009 | 39% | 25% | 17% | 6% | 9% | – | 3% | – | – | 14% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 9–11 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 38% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 11% | <1% | 4% | – | <1% | 17% |
| YouGov/The Times | 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 | 1,059 | 39% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 1% | 5% | 3% [nb 1] | <1% | 19% |
| Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||||||||
| Lorna Slater becomes co-leader of the Scottish Green Party alongside Patrick Harvie | ||||||||||||
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 18–20 Jun 2019 | 1,024 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 10% | <1% | 6% | - | <1% [nb 2] | 19% |
| 2019 European Parliament election | ||||||||||||
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 14–17 May 2019 | 1,021 | 37% | 19% | 18% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 6% | - | 2%[nb 4] | 18% |
| YouGov/The Times | 24–26 Apr 2019 | 1,029 | 37% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2%[nb 4] | 17% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 18–24 Apr 2019 | 1,018 | 37% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 4% | - | 2%[nb 4] | 15% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 | 1,002 | 36% | 26% | 19% | 6% | 9% | 3% | – | - | <1% | 10% |
| Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1–4 Mar 2019 | 1,011 | 32% | 22% | 19% | 11% | 11% | 3% | – | - | 1% | 10% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 | 1,028 | 38% | 26% | 22% | 6% | 7% | 1% | – | - | <1% | 12% |
| Panelbase/Constitutional Commission | 2–7 Nov 2018 | 1,050 | 37% | 26% | 22% | 6% | 6% | 2% | – | - | <1% | 11% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 18–21 Oct 2018 | 1,017 | 32% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 9% | – | – | - | 4% | 9% |
| Survation/SNP | 3–5 Oct 2018 | 1,013 | 40% | 25% | 22% | 4% | 8% | – | – | - | 2% | 15% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 | 1,024 | 35% | 26% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 2% | – | - | 1% | 9% |
| Survation/The Sunday Post | 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 | 1,036 | 32% | 21% | 23% | 10% | 8% | 5% | – | - | 0% | 9% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 5–10 Jul 2018 | 1,004 | 33% | 19% | 21% | 11% | 10% | 5% | – | - | 1% | 12% |
| Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 21–27 Jun 2018 | 1,018 | 36% | 27% | 23% | 6% | 7% | 1% | – | - | <1% | 9% |
| Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 8–13 Jun 2018 | 1,021 | 36% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 6% | 1% | – | - | <1% | 10% |
| YouGov/The Times | 1–5 Jun 2018 | 1,075 | 32% | 26% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 1% | – | 3% | <1% | 6% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 24–28 Jan 2018 | 1,029 | 33% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 8% | 3% | – | - | 1% | 10% |
| YouGov/The Times | 12–16 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 32% | 25% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 3% | – | 2% | <1% | 7% |
| Survation/The Sunday Post | 1–5 Dec 2017 | 1,006 | 32% | 21% | 24% | 10% | 10% | 3% | – | - | 1% | 8% |
| Survation/Daily Record | 27–30 Nov 2017 | 1,017 | 33% | 22% | 25% | 8% | 8% | 3% | – | - | <1% | 8% |
| Richard Leonard becomes leader of Scottish Labour[2] | ||||||||||||
| YouGov/The Times | 2–5 Oct 2017 | 1,135 | 35% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 1% | – | 3% | <1% | 11% |
| Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 8–12 Sep 2017 | 1,016 | 31% | 21% | 25% | 9% | 10% | 3% | – | - | <1% | 6% |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election[3] | ||||||||||||
| YouGov/The Times | 9–14 Mar 2017 | 1,028 | 40% | 25% | 14% | 12% | 5% | 2% | – | 1%[lower-alpha 1] | 1% | 15% |
| YouGov/The Times | 24–29 Nov 2016 | 1,134 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 4% | – | 1%[lower-alpha 1] | 0% | 15% |
| BMG | 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 | 1,010 | 43% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 3% | – | - | 1% | 23% |
| YouGov/The Times | 29–31 Aug 2016 | 1,039 | 45% | 21% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 2% | – | - | 0% | 24% |
| Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 24–28 Jun 2016 | 1,055 | 41% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 4% | – | - | 1% | 21% |
| 2016 Scottish Parliament election | 5 May 2016 | – | 41.7% | 22.9% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.0% | – | 0.5%[lower-alpha 2] | 2.4% | 18.8% |
Methodology
Each polling organisation are members of the British Polling Council and uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data. All organisations remove voters who do not give a voting intention from their headline figures; this is usually ranges from 10% to 15% of respondents likely to vote. A brief description of each company's methods is as follows:
- Panelbase collects its data via an online panel, with results weighted to be demographically representative of the voting age population in terms of age, sex, and country of birth, previous general election vote and independence referendum vote. Additionally, the voting intention data is weighted by how likely respondents were to vote.
- Survation collects data from its online panel, with the results weighted to the profile of all Scottish adults of voting age in terms of age, sex, region, previous general election vote, previous Scottish Parliament election constituency vote, EU membership referendum vote and independence referendum vote. Responses for voting intention were additionally weighted by likelihood to vote in the election. The data for the 3–5 October 2018 poll for the Scottish National Party was collected via telephone, instead of the online panel.
- YouGov collects its data through an online survey of its panel, and weights its respondents to be representative of the voting age population as a whole in terms of age by gender by education level (such as Male aged between 25 and 49 with a high level of education), social grades, previous general election vote, independence referendum vote, the respondents' political attention and birthplace (Scotland, elsewhere in the United Kingdom and outside the UK). Additionally, the headline voting intention data is weighted by how likely respondents said they were to vote and whether they voted at the previous general election.
See also
Notes
- Figure for RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, of which the Scottish Socialist Party was a constituent in the previous election.
- Contested the election as part of RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance.
References
- "Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill passes stage 3". Scottish Government. 25 February 2016. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Retrieved 23 May 2017.
- "General Election 2017: full results and analysis". UK Parliament. 29 January 2019. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
External links
- Britain Elects Scottish Parliament voting intention archive (2016–present)
- Results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election
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