New South Wales state election, 2019

New South Wales state election, 2019
23 March 2019
All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Gladys Berejiklian Luke Foley No leader
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens
Leader since 23 January 2017 5 January 2015
Leader's seat Willoughby Auburn
Last election 45.63%, 54 seats 34.08%, 34 seats 10.29%, 3 seats
Current seats 51 seats 34 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase 12 Increase 44
TPP @ 2015 54.32% 45.68% –
TPP polling 50% 50% –
BP polling 49.8% 50.2% –
Incumbent Premier

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal/National coalition

The next New South Wales state election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 23 March 2019 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council. The eight-year two-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government, currently led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian, will attempt to win a third four-year term and will be challenged by the Labor opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Luke Foley, as well as the Greens and no Coalition Government has ever won a third term in office since 1971.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election to be held on the fourth Saturday in March,[1] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

2015 election

Lower house

At the 2015 election, the Coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. But the Coalition had since been reduced to 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that resulted in the departure of eight MPs from the Liberal Party. The Labor Party gained 11 seats with a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats. Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both respectively retained their seats.

Upper house

The 2015 election saw the incumbent Liberal/National coalition gain one seat in the legislative council to have a total of 20 despite a 5.1-point swing against them. The Labor party lost two seats, bringing their total down to 12; the Greens, Shooters and Fishers, and Christian Democrats saw no gains or losses in the election: these parties won five seats, two seats and two seats, respectively. The only gain came from the Animal Justice Party.

Polling

Graphical summary

Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A local regression trend is shown in a solid line.

Polling tables

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
10 September 2018* Fairfax-ReachTEL[2] 35.1% 31.5% 10.5% 17.3% 50% 50%
15 March 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL[3] 41.9% 32.5% 9.4% 10% 52% 48%
6 March 2018 Newspoll 38% 34% 11% 17% 50% 50%
October–December 2017 Essential[4] 40% 39% 9% 12% 49% 51%
5 October 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL[5] 37.6% 31% 9.1% 22.3% 52% 48%
February–March 2017 Newspoll[6] 40% 34% 10% 16% 51% 49%
23 January 2017 Gladys Berejiklian becomes Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
19 January 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL[7] 42.7% 28% 8.4% 20.9% 55% 45%
18 January 2017 Mike Baird announces resignation as Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
December 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL[8] 40.6% 32.4% 8% 19% 53% 47%
October 2016 Roy Morgan[9] 37% 31.5% 14% 17.5% 48.5% 51.5%
August–September 2016 Newspoll[10] 42% 36% 11% 11% 51% 49%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[11] 39% 30.5% 13% 17.5% 50.5% 49.5%
27 August 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL[12] 39.4% 34.9% 8% 9.6% 50% 50%
May 2016 Roy Morgan[13] 46% 29% 17% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[14] 46% 27% 15.5% 11.5% 55% 45%
29 Jan – 1 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan[15] 52% 24.5% 14.5% 9% 59.5% 40.5%
4-7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan[16] 52% 22.5% 15% 10.5% 60.5% 39.5%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan[17] 54% 24.5% 13.5% 8% 60.5% 39.5%
September 2015 Newspoll[18] 47% 33% 11% 9% 56% 44%
28–31 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan[19] 49%* 25% 17.5% 8.5% 57% 43%
25 Jun 2015 Roy Morgan[20] 49.5%* 27.5% 14% 9% 57% 43%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan[21] 53.5%* 29.5% 12% 5% 58.5% 41.5%
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan[22] 47.5%* 31.0% 12.5% 9.0% 54.5% 45.5%
28 March 2015 election 35.1% 10.5% 34.1% 10.3% 9.9% 54.3% 45.7%
23–26 March 2015 Newspoll[23] 35% 9% 34% 11% 11% 55% 45%[24]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
  • The ReachTEL poll on September 10, 2018 includes 5.9% of undecided voters.
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Berejiklian Foley
Berejiklian Foley Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
10 September 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL 49.8% 50.2% not asked
6 March 2018 Newspoll 43% 25% not asked
15 March 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL 52.3% 47.7% not asked
5 October 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL 52.1% 47.9% not asked
February–March 2017 Newspoll 43% 21% 44% 21% 32% 36%
23 January 2017 Berejiklian replaces Baird Baird Foley Baird Foley
December 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL 50.6% 49.4% not asked
October 2016 Roy Morgan 52.5% 47.5% not asked
29 September 2016 Newspoll 42% 24% 39% 46% 32% 39%
27 August 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL 48.7% 51.3% not asked
29 Jan – 1 Feb 2016 Roy Morgan 72% 28% not asked
4-7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan 72.5% 27.5% not asked
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan 74.5% 25.5% not asked
September 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 63% 24% 35% 37%
25 June 2015 Roy Morgan 70% 30% not asked
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan 70.5% 29.5% not asked
15 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan 68% 32% not asked
28 March 2015 election – – – – – – –
23–26 Mar 2015 Newspoll 54% 27% 57% 29% 38% 37%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Retiring MPs

Members who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

Liberal

Nationals

See also

References

  1. ↑ "'So when is the next election?'". Aph.gov.au. 2016-09-01. Retrieved 2017-09-28.
  2. ↑ Smith, Alexandra. "VCoalition neck and neck with Labor as Foley overtakes Berejiklian". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 23 September 2018.
  3. ↑ Smith, Alexandra. "Voter revolt on stadiums poses threat to Premier". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 18 March 2018.
  4. ↑ Karp, Paul. "Gladys Berejiklian's Coalition trails Labor in Guardian Essential polls". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  5. ↑ "Poll shows Gladys Berejiklian holding her own but minor parties on the march". ReachTEL. 9 October 2017.
  6. ↑ "Newspoll: Gladys Berejiklian in strong start to NSW premiership". Newspoll. 7 April 2017.
  7. ↑ "ReachTEL: 55-45 to Coalition in New South Wales". Crikey. 20 January 2017.
  8. ↑ "Fairfax-ReachTel poll shows NSW premier Mike Baird bouncing back". Fairfax-ReachTel. 3 December 2016.
  9. ↑ "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
  10. ↑ "Newspoll: Dogs ban sends Mike Baird ratings into freefall". Newspoll. 29 September 2016.
  11. ↑ "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
  12. ↑ "Support for Mike Baird's government collapses: exclusive poll". Sydney Morning Herald. Fairfax Media. 27 August 2016. Retrieved 27 August 2016.
  13. ↑ "L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
  14. ↑ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
  15. ↑ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) increases support in South Australia while L-NP well in front in NSW and ALP holds solid lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. 3 February 2016. Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  16. ↑ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) scores highly in South Australia while ALP vote down in Victoria but still maintains strong lead". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. 8 December 2015. Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  17. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  18. ↑ "Newspoll" (PDF). The Australian. 25 September 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2015.
  19. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States except Tasmania are close". Roy Morgan Research. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 3 September 2015.
  20. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6315-morgan-poll-sms-state-voting-intention-june-2015-201506250218
  21. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6261-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-may-2015-201505270543
  22. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6159-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-april-2015-201504150230
  23. ↑ http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/03/27/1227281/937840-150328poll.pdf
  24. ↑ Preference allocation based on previous election. Respondent-allocated vote was 52% L/NP, 48% ALP
  25. ↑ Costin, Luke (4 August 2018). "Two scandals in one term: MP won't recontest south-western Sydney seat". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  26. ↑ Zautsen, Daniel (15 February 2018). "Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell announces retirement". The Daily Telegraph.
  27. ↑ Deans, Matt (14 June 2018). "Andrew Fraser to retire at the 2019 State Election". Coffs Coast Advocate.
  28. ↑ Broome, Hamish (30 June 2017). "Lismore MP Thomas George announces retirement". Northern Star. Retrieved 30 June 2017.
  29. ↑ "Troy Grant, NSW Minister for Police, will not contest the next election". ABC News. 12 July 2018. Retrieved 13 July 2018.
  30. ↑ Druce, Alex (1 June 2017). "NSW Nationals MP Kevin Humphries won't recontest Barwon at the 2019 election". The Land.
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