Korean reunification

South Korea's National Assembly. The woman holding a dove symbolizes democracy, peace and freedom.

Introduced by the Millennium Democratic Party of South Korea under President Kim Dae-jung, as part of a campaign pledge to "actively pursue reconciliation and cooperation" with North Korea, the Sunshine Policy was intended to create conditions of economic assistance and cooperation for reunification, rather than sanctions and military threats. The plan was divided into three parts: increased cooperation through inter-Korean organizations (while maintaining separate systems in the North and South), national unification with two autonomous regional governments, and finally the creation of a central national government. In 1998, Kim approved large shipments of food aid to the North Korean government, lifted limits on business deals between North Korean and South Korean firms, and even called for a stop to the American economic embargo against the North. In June 2000, the leaders of North and South Korea met in Pyongyang and shook hands for the first time since the division of Korea.

Despite the continuation of the Sunshine Policy under the Roh administration, it was eventually declared a failure by the South Korean Ministry of Unification in November 2010 over issues of North Korea's nuclear weapons program, stymied further negotiations, and newly strained relations between the two Koreas.

Opponents of the Sunshine Policy argue that dialogue and trade with North Korea did nothing to improve prospects for peaceful reunification, despite the transfer of large funds to the North Korean government by President Kim Dae-jung, and only allowed the North Korean government to retain its hold on power. Others believe South Korea should remain prepared for the event of a North Korean attack. Hardline policy supporters also argue that the continued and maximized isolation of the North will lead to the country's collapse, after which the territory could be absorbed by force into the Republic of Korea.

In November 2000, outgoing President of the United States Bill Clinton wanted to visit Pyongyang. However, the intended visit never happened, due to the controversy surrounding the results of the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. Around April or May 2001, Kim Dae-jung was expecting to welcome Kim Jong-il to Seoul. Returning from his meeting in Washington D.C. with newly elected President Bush, Kim Dae-jung described his meeting as embarrassing while privately cursing President Bush and his hardliner approach. This meeting negated any chance of a North Korean visit to South Korea. With the Bush administration labeling North Korea as being part of the "axis of evil", North Korea renounced the nonproliferation treaty, kicked out UN inspectors, and restarted its nuclear program.[32] In early 2005, the North Korean government confirmed that the country had successfully become a nuclear armed state.[32]^:504–505

On January 1, 2011, a group of twelve lawmakers from the ruling and opposition parties introduced a bill into the South Korean National Assembly to allow for the establishment of a "unification tax". The bill called for businesses to pay 0.05 percent of corporate tax, individuals to pay 5 percent of inheritance or gift taxes, and both individuals and companies to pay two percent of their income tax towards the cost of unification. The bill initiated legislative debate on practical measures to prepare for unification, as proposed by President Lee Myung-bak in his Liberation Day speech the previous year. The proposal for a unification tax was not warmly welcomed at the time. Lee has since reiterated concerns regarding the imminence of unification, which, combined with North Korean behavior, led to the tax proposal gaining wider acceptance. Practical measures to prepare for unification are becoming an increasingly frequent aspect of political debate, as concern regarding imminent and abrupt unification increases.[33]

It has been suggested that the formation of a Korean Economic Community could be a way to ease in unification of the Korean peninsula.[34] Lee Myung-bak, departing from the Saenuri Party's traditional hardline stance, outlined a comprehensive diplomatic package on North Korea that includes setting up a consultative body to discuss economic projects between the two Koreas. He proposed seeking a Korean economic community agreement to provide the legal and systemic basis for any projects agreed to in the body.[35]

North Korea's policy is to seek reunification without what it sees as outside interference, through a confederal structure retaining each side's leadership and systems. In 1973, it proposed forming a Confederal Republic of Koryo that would represent the Korean people in the UN.[36] North Korean President Kim Il-sung elaborated on the proposed state (then called Democratic Confederal Republic of Koryo)[37] on October 10, 1980, in the Report to the Sixth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea on the Work of the Central Committee. Kim proposed a confederation between North and South Korea, in which their respective political systems would initially remain.

Former Inha University professor Shepherd Iverson has proposed creating a $175 billion reunification investment fund aiming to bribe the elite officials on top of DPRK's hierarchy to ensure a diplomatic way to resolve the Korean conflict by conducting an internal regime change. In the proposal a sum of up to $23.3 billion would be paid in total to the families of those elite officials who wield power in Pyongyang, while he noted that the top ten families would receive $30 million each, and the top thousand families would get $5 million. Another sum of $121.8 billion would go to the country’s general population to start their life again post-reunification, and it's envisioned that the proceeds for the fund is to be raised from private groups and business moguls.[38][39][40]

Population pyramid of North Korea

Population pyramid of South Korea

While the situation of South and North Korea might seem comparable to East and West Germany, another country divided by Cold War politics, there are some notable differences. Germany did not have a civil war that resulted in millions of casualties, meaning "it is very hard to believe that People's Army commanders who fought the South in such a bloody fratricidal war would allow the ROK to overwhelm the DPRK, by whatever means". Both sides of Germany maintained a working relationship after the war, but the two Koreas' relationship has been more acrimonious.[32]^:509

The East Germans also had 360,000 Soviet troops on their soil in 1989; however, North Korea has not had any foreign troops on its soil since 1958. "East Germany collapsed because [Soviet Premier Mikhail] Gorbachev chose to do what none of his predecessors would ever have done, namely, keep those troops in their barracks rather than mobilize them to save the Honecker regime". The East Germans looked favorably at the fact that West Germans had good retirement benefits, public order and strong civil society, whereas the North Korean citizens are not aware of any immediate benefits from uniting with South Korea, because all such knowledge is kept from them by the state.[32]^:508–509

Under Roh Tae-woo, a former South Korean army general and politician, the Seoul government created a "Nordpolitik" policy, based on the West German "Ostpolitik" model, hoping to make trading agreements with Pyongyang.[32]^:477

The cultures of the two halves have separated following partition, even though traditional Korean culture and history are shared. In addition, many families were split by the division of Korea. In the practically comparable situation of the German reunification, the 41-year-long separation has left significant impacts on German culture and society, even after three decades. Given the extreme differences of North and South Korean culture and lifestyle, the effects might last even longer. Many experts have suggested that the differences between "Westerners" and "Easterners" (German: die Mauer im Kopf, lit. 'the wall in the head') will gradually dissipate as younger generations arise, born after reunification and seeing increasing migration between eastern and western Germany.[41][42][43] Therefore, it is highly likely that the Korean youth will play a major role in the cultural integration after a hypothetical Korean reunification.

The North Korean population is far more culturally distinct and isolated than the East German population was in the late 1980s. Unlike in East Germany, North Koreans generally cannot receive foreign broadcasting or read foreign publications. Germany was divided for 44 years and did not have border clashes between the two sides. By comparison, the Koreas have been divided for over 70 years, and hostilities have flared frequently over the years and hostilities have been becoming more frequent since the ascension of Kim Jong-un as the supreme leader of North Korea. The Korean ethnic nationalist belief that unification is a "sacred, universally-desired" goal to recover an ethnic homogeneity (tongjilsŏng) obscures North-South differences developed since 1945, and risks intolerance for the cultural accommodation necessary for a unified Korean polity.[44]

North Korea has a state-run command economy aspiring for autarky (Juche) with a negligible market segment.

Korean reunification would differ from the German reunification precedent. In relative terms, North Korea's economy is currently in a far worse situation than that of East Germany in 1990. The income per capita ratio (PPP) was about 3:1 in Germany (US$25,000 for the West, about US$8,500 for the East).[45][46] The ratio is around 22:1 in Korea (in 2015: US$37,600 for the South, US$1,700 for the North).[47] While at the moment of German reunification the East German population (around 17 million) was about a third of West Germany's (more than 60 million), the North Korean population (around 25 million) is currently around half of South Korea's (around 51 million). In the event of Korean reunification, a flood of North Koreans to a much more developed South Korea may cause the country's economy to undergo a heavy burden that will cost upwards of US$1 trillion, possibly creating a period of economic collapse or stagnation.[48]

In September 2009, Goldman Sachs published its 188th Global Economics Paper named "A United Korea?"[49] which highlighted in detail the potential economic power of a United Korea, which will surpass all current G7 countries except the United States; including Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and France within 30–40 years of reunification, estimating GDP to surpass $6 trillion by 2050.[50] The young, skilled labor and large amount of natural resources from the North combined with advanced technology, infrastructure and large amount of capital in the South, as well as Korea's strategic location connecting three economic powers, is likely going to create an economy larger than some of the G7. According to some opinions, a reunited Korea could occur before 2050.[50] If it occurred, Korean reunification would immediately raise the country's population to over 80 million.[51] According to research by Jin-Wook Kim at Citi, reunification would require an investment of US$63.1 billion in the long term to rebuild transportation such as railroads, roads, airports, sea ports and other infrastructure like power plants, mines, oil refineries, and gas pipelines.

Korea in 2050[49]

	United Korea	South Korea	North Korea
GDP in USD	$6.056 trillion	$4.073 trillion	$1.982 trillion
GDP per capita	$78,000	$81,000	$71,000
GDP growth (2015–2050)	4.8%	3.9%	11.4%
Total population	78 million	50 million	28 million

The division between North and South Korea can be seen as more comparable to North and South Vietnam, which were also divided after independence following World War II from a colonial power (France), and after occupation by Japan. Unlike the Korean War, the Vietnam War spanned a much longer period and spilled over to the neighboring countries of Laos and Cambodia. The end of the war resulted in all 3 countries coming under control of the Communist-oriented independence movements 1976, with China and the Soviet Union competing for influence.[52] Relations between North and South Vietnam were also acrimonious, with North Vietnam being largely isolated and unrecognized except by other communist states, similarly to North Korea.

Similarly to both Germany and Korea, the separation of North and South Vietnam has also left significant cultural differences that continue today.[53] Furthermore, cultural differences between the two parts of Vietnam had also existed prior to the partition of the country.

The North Vietnamese population was similar to the North Korean population in that foreign broadcasting or publications was prohibited in the country.In contrast,in the market economy, the South Vietnamese population saw a rising middle class that became increasingly globalized, maintaining the many of the French cultural and the social trends of the colonial period and increasingly becoming influenced by American cultural trends as well.

In 1984, the Beijing Review provided China's view on Korean unification: "With regard to the situation on the Korean peninsula, China's position is clear: it is squarely behind the proposal of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea for tripartite (between the two Koreas and the United States) talks to seek a peaceful and independent reunification of Korea in the form of a confederation, free from outside interference. China believes this is the surest way to reduce tension on the peninsula."[54]

China's current relationship with North Korea and position on a unified Korea is seen as dependent on a number of issues. A unified Korea could prevent North Korea's nuclear weapons program from destabilizing East Asia as well as the Chinese government. The 2010 United States diplomatic cables leak mentioned two unnamed Chinese officials telling the Deputy Foreign Minister of South Korea that the younger generation of Chinese leaders increasingly believed that Korea should be reunified under South Korean rule, provided it were not hostile to China.[55] The report also claimed that senior officials and the general public in China were becoming increasingly frustrated with the North acting like a "spoiled child," following its repeated missile and nuclear tests, which were seen as a gesture of defiance not only to the West, but also to China.[56] The business magazine Caixin reported that North Korea accounted for 40% of China's foreign aid budget and required 50,000 tonnes of oil per month as a buffer state against Japan, South Korea, and the United States, with whom trade and investment is now worth billions. North Korea is seen in China as expensive and internationally embarrassing to support.[57]

However, the collapse of the North Korean regime and unification by Seoul would also present a number of problems for China. A sudden and violent collapse might cause a mass exodus of North Koreans fleeing or fighting poverty into China, causing a humanitarian crisis that could destabilize northeast China. The movement of South Korean and American soldiers into the North could result in their being temporarily or even permanently stationed on China's border, seen as a potential threat to Chinese sovereignty and an imposition of a China containment policy.[58] A unified Korea could also more strongly pursue its territorial disputes with China[59] and might inflame nationalism among Koreans in China.[60] Some have claimed the existence of contingency plans for China intervening in situations of great turmoil in North Korea[61][62] (with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Northeast Project on the Chinese identity of the Goguryeo kingdom potentially used to justify intervention or even annexation).[23]

As relations between North Korea and the Soviet Union warmed, the latter returned to warm public support for Kim Il-Sung's peaceful reunification proposals. Soviet attention in Northeast Asia gradually began to focus on a new plan for "collective security in Asia" first proposed in an Izvestia editorial in May 1969 and mentioned specifically by Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev in his address to the International Conference of Communist and Workers' Parties in Moscow the following month:[63]

For us, the burning problems of the present international situation do not push into the background more long-range tasks, especially the creation of a system of collective security in those parts of the world where the threat of the unleashing of a new World War and the unleashing of armed conflicts is centered... We think that the course of events also places on the agenda the task of creating a system of collective security in Asia.

US President Donald Trump (left), North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un (center), and South Korean President Moon Jae-in (right) in the demilitarized zone in 2019

The United States officially supports Korean reunification under a democratic government. Mike Mansfield proposed that Korea be neutralized under a great-power agreement, accompanied by the withdrawal of all foreign troops and the discontinuation of security treaties with the great power guarantors of the North and South.

In the 1990s, despite issues surrounding the controversial US-South Korean joint Team Spirit military exercises, the Clinton administration still managed to help turn around the situation regarding peace with North Korea through Jimmy Carter's support. It promised light water reactors in exchange for the availability of North Korea for inspection of its facilities and other concessions. North Korea reacted positively, despite blaming the United States as the original aggressor in the Korean War. There were attempts to normalize relations with Japan as well as the United States with South Korean President Kim Dae-jung in open support. North Korea actually favored the United States military's position on the front lines because it helped prevent an outbreak of war. Eventually, aid and oil were supplied, and even cooperation with South Korean business firms. However, one of the remaining fears was North Korea, with their necessary uranium deposits, having the potential to achieve a high level of nuclear technology.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, another supporter of Korean unification, proposed a six-party conference to find a way out of the Korean dilemma, composed of the two Koreas and four connected powers (the United States, the Soviet Union, China, and Japan). North Korea denounced the "four plus two" scenario, as it was also known, by claiming Korea would be at the mercy of the great powers and insinuated the reestablishment of Japanese power in Korea. However, North Korea ultimately lacked confidence in getting simultaneous help from China and the Soviet Union.[32]^:508

Following a summit meeting in Pyongyang on June 13–15, 2000 between leaders of the two countries, the chairpersons of the Millennium Summit issued a statement welcoming their Joint Declaration as a breakthrough in bringing peace, stability, and reunification to the Korean peninsula.[64] Seven weeks later, a resolution to the same effect was passed by the United Nations General Assembly after being co-sponsored by 150 other nations.[65]

A scheduled General Assembly debate on the topic in 2002 was deferred for a year at the request of both nations,[66] and when the subject returned in 2003, it was immediately dropped off the agenda.[67]

The issue did not return to the General Assembly until 2007,[68] following a second Inter-Korean summit held in Pyongyang on October 2–4, 2007. These talks were held during one round of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing which committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.[69]

• German reunification, 1990
• Chinese reunification