Energy in Vietnam

Data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), 10 months of 2018 clean coal production was estimated at 34.35 million tons, up 10% over the same period in 2017, of which clean coal output of Vinacomin (TKV) was 29.6 million tons, up 10.9% over the same period last year.[2] By the end of 2018, TKV's coal production reached 36.95 million tons. In 2019, TKV aimed to produce 40 million tons while consumption was up to 42 million tons, exceeding 2 million tons compared to production.[3]

On 2019-04-09, the amount of raw coal produced by this group reached over 10.7 million tons (of which 10.5 million tons were exported). To meet the above figure, TKV had to import another 1.2 million tons of coal to mix, while reducing its inventory to 6.2 million tons of coal.[4]

Table 2: Vietnam's coal import volume from 2014 to 2017 (tons): [5]

The total volume of coal imported into Vietnam from 2014–2017 reached nearly 38 million tons and has an increasing trend.[5] In 10 months of 2018, Vietnam imported 17.34 million tons of coal, worth US$2.05 billion. In terms of markets, Australia, Indonesia and China are the three largest coal supply markets for Vietnam.[6] According to the statistics of the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in 2018, Vietnam imported 23.78 million tons of coal.[7]

Table 3: Vietnam's coal balance in 2017 (million tons): [8]

It is forecasted that in the future, domestic coal resources will not meet the demand for consumption in general, electricity production in particular and must be imported in huge quantities ... (2020: 86 million tons, 2025: 121 million tons and 2030: 156 million tons).[9] Mr. Sabyasachi Mishra, mineral sales manager at Tata International, predicts that Vietnam's annual coal imports will increase from 20 million tons to 30 million tons in the next one or several years, especially when domestic coal reserves are downward trend.[10]

According to the report of Petrovietnam (PVN), the total production of oil exploitation in 2017 reached 25.41 million tons, exceeding 1.60 million tons of oil equivalent compared to the Government plan assigned at the beginning of the year, but exploration increased reserves to only 4 million tons. In particular, oil exploitation reached 15.52 million tons, exceeding 1.32 million tons.[11]

In 2018, the oil production reached nearly 14 million tons (of which, the domestic oil production was about 11.3 million tons), down from the level of over 15.52 million tons in 2017.[12]

Figure 1: The amount of crude oil for export and import in the period of 2012–2018[13]

According to government statistics, in the period 2012–2017 crude oil exports were always more than imports, with an average export volume of 8.3 million tons/year, while imports averaged only about 750 thousand tons/year.

In 2018, the whole country exported 3.96 million tons of crude oil, down 41.8% from 2017 and less than half of the annual exports of crude oil in the period of 2012–2017. At the same time, imports reached 5.17 million tons, more than 4 times the figure of 1.18 million tons in 2017 and 7 times more than the annual import figure of the period 2012–2017.

In January and February 2019 the whole country imported more than 1.462 million tons of crude oil (worth US$635.4 million), an increase of more than 16 times in volume and 14 times in value from the same period in 2018.[13] The reason for the sharp increase is the oil demand for production by the Nghi Sơn Refinery.[14]

Oil production in many wells is declining naturally, due to exploitation for too long. In addition, the increase in reserves is so low that from 2018 to 2025, oil production will decrease steadily every year by 10% – equivalent to more than 2 million tons. Lack of capital is the main reason that PVN has not been able to boost oil and gas exploration activities in the past years to increase reserves. The increased output to compensate for the exploitation has reduced to a worrying level, affecting the sustainable development of Vietnam's oil and gas industry. Only a few years from 2018, the total oil and gas production will be only 1/3 of the current production.[15]

According to the 2018 report of the MOIT, production of natural gas has increased gradually from 2011 to 2016, but has decreased slightly in 2017 when only reached 9.8 billion m3.[16]

First half of 2018, natural gas exploitation was estimated at 5.3 billion m3, up 1%; liquefied gas was estimated at 437.6 thousand tons, up 18.5% compared to the same period in 2017. Natural gas production was likely to not increase in 2018 when output by the end of 10 months of 2018 reaches 8.39 billion m3.[16] That shows the overall picture of the mining industry in general, the gas industry in particular is increasingly gaining development, basically meeting the requirements, there is no shortage of supply.[17]
However, after 2020, Vietnam's natural gas fields will decline and it is necessary to import tens of billions of cubic meters of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to supply power plants. Current gas fields are sufficient to meet 100% of domestic demand, but will begin to decline from 2022. Therefore, in the near future, Vietnam will have to import LPG to serve domestic demand, especially electricity production in gas power plants.[18]

According to theoretical calculations, the total hydropower capacity of our country is about 35,000 MW, of which 60% is concentrated in the North, 27% is distributed in the Central and 13% in the South. Technical potential (potentially feasible to exploit) is about 26,000 MW, equivalent to nearly 970 planned projects, can annually produce more than 100 billion kWh, of which small hydroelectricity comes in particular 800 projects, with a total power of about 15–20 billion kWh/year.[19]

In 2017, reports said that large hydropower power plants with capacity of over 100 MW were almost fully exploited. Plants with favorable locations and low investment costs have also been constructed. Remaining in the near future, small capacity hydropower projects will be invested for exploitation.

According to the assessment, Vietnam's small hydropower potential is about 4,000 MW, of which the source with a capacity of 100 kW-30 MW accounts for 93–95%, while the type of source with a capacity of under 100 kW only accounts for 5 – 7%, with total capacity over 200 MW.[19]

As of 2018, there were 818 hydropower project power plants in the whole country with total installed capacity of 23,182 MW. In which, 385 plants with the total installed capacity of 18,564 MW have been put into operation, 143 projects were being constructed with a total installed capacity of 1,848 MW and 290 investment projects with a total installed capacity of 2,770 MW. There are many dams and hydropower stations in Vietnam.[20]