2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term.[1] Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
 
Nominee Martin Heinrich Heather Wilson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 395,717 351,259
Percentage 51.0% 45.3%
County results
Heinrich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Wilson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Bingaman
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico

Background

Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew
  • Martin Chávez, former Albuquerque mayor and 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee (withdrew to run for U.S. House)[4][5]
  • Andres Valdez, anti-police brutality Social Justice activist[6]

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Hector
Balderas		 Martin
Heinrich		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 24% 47% — 29%
Magellan Strategies July 17–18, 2011 636 ± 3.9% 21% 54% — 25%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 309 ± 5.6% 30% 47% — 23%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 270 ± 6% 27% 51% — 22%
Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling May 21–24, 2012 741 ± 3.6% 26% 51% — 23%

Endorsements
Martin Heinrich
Federal officials
Statewide officials
New Mexico state senators
New Mexico state representatives
  • J. Paul Taylor
  • Joni Guiterrez
  • Bill O'Neill
  • Jeff Steinborn
  • Mimi Stewart
  • Danice Picraux
  • Eliseo Alcon
  • Eleanor Chavez
New Mexico Mayors

Source:[11]

Unions
Organizations

Source:[14]

Hector Balderas
Statewide officials
New Mexico state senators
New Mexico state representatives
  • Jim Trujillo
  • Antonio Lujan
  • Joseph Cervantes
  • Miguel Garcia
  • Mary Helen Garcia
  • Lucky Varela
  • Thomas Garcia
New Mexico Mayors

Source:[15]

Results
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Martin Heinrich 83,432 58.9
Democratic Hector Balderas 58,128 41.1
Total votes 141,560 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Greg Sowards, businessman[17]
  • Heather Wilson, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[18]

Withdrew

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Bill
English		 John
Sanchez		 Greg
Sowards		 Heather
Wilson		 Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies April 26–27, 2011 801 ± 3.5% — 17% 2% 59% 11% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 4% 24% 8% 52% — 12%
Magellan Strategies July 17–18, 2011 799 ± 3.5% 2% 21% 5% 56% — 16%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 300 ± 5.7% 3% 20% 6% 55% — 16%
Albuquerque Journal May 21–24, 2012 504 ± 4.4% — — 20% 66% — 14%

Endorsements
Heather Wilson
Federal officials
Statewide officials
New Mexico state senators
  • Minority Leader Stuart Ingle
  • Minority Whip Bill Payne
  • Steven Neville
  • Bill Sharer
  • Clint Harden
  • John Ryan
  • Mark Boitano
  • Gay Kernan
  • Vernon Asbill
  • Sander Rue
  • Bill Burt
  • Sue Wilson Beffort
  • Carroll Leavell
  • Rod Adair
New Mexico state representatives
  • Minority Leader Tom Taylor
  • David Chavez
  • Bill Gray
  • Jim Hall
  • Conrad James
  • Dave Doyle
  • Nora Espinoza
  • Nate Gentry
  • Jimmie Hall
  • Jane Powdrell-Culbert
  • Larry Larranaga
  • Bill Rehm
  • Dianne Miller Hamilton
  • Jim Smith
  • James White
  • Tim Lewis
  • Dennis Roch
  • Anna Crook
  • Shirley Tyler
  • Tom Anderson
  • Zachary Cook
  • Alonzo Baldonado
  • Paul Bandy
  • James Strickler
  • Don Bratton
  • Don Tripp
  • Cathryn Novich-Brown
  • Bob Wooley
New Mexico Mayors

Source:[23]

Results
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Heather Wilson 63,631 70.0
Republican Greg Sowards 27,214 30.0
Total votes 90,845 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Martin Heinrich (D) $3,883,992 $2,174,712 $1,763,753 $89,424
Heather Wilson (R) $4,048,847 $2,416,328 $1,632,517 $0
Jon Barrie (I) $705 $1,150 $0 $445
Source: Federal Election Commission[25][26][27]

Top contributors

[28]

Martin Heinrich Contribution Heather Wilson Contribution
League of Conservation Voters $108,634 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
JStreetPAC $67,860 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000
University of New Mexico $24,221 Kelly PAC $15,000
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP $23,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $14,050
Council for a Livable World $20,044 Devon Energy $13,250
National Rural Letter Carriers' Association $19,000 Murray Energy $12,800
Comcast Corporation $11,250 Yates Petroleum $12,600
Presbyterian Healthcare Services $11,150 Livingston Group $12,249
Intel Corp $10,500 Publix Super Markets $11,000
American Optometric Association $10,250 Westport Construction $10,500

Top industries

[29]

Martin Heinrich Contribution Heather Wilson Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $322,120 Retired $355,880
Retired $270,598 Oil & Gas $217,500
Lobbyists $156,480 Leadership PACs $206,225
Environmental organizations $145,365 Financial Institutions $163,888
Leadership PACs $100,000 Lobbyists $113,549
Health Professionals $95,729 Lawyers/Law Firms $106,852
Pro-Israel $83,860 Real Estate $95,990
Public Sector Unions $67,000 Misc Finance $72,407
Democratic/Liberal $64,300 Business Services $72,078
Casinos/Gambling $58,550 Mining $69,200

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Likely D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[32] Lean D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[33] Likely D November 5, 2012

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Martin
Heinrich (D)		 Heather
Wilson (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 50% 39% — 11%
Public Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 732 ± 3.6% 47% 42% — 11%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 47% 40% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports February 14, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% 43% 5% 7%
Rasmussen Reports April 3, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 42% 7% 6%
Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 526 ± 4.3% 48% 43% — 9%
Public Policy Polling July 13–16, 2012 724 ± 3.6% 48% 43% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 41% 5% 7%
Albuquerque Journal September 3–6, 2012 667 ± 3.8% 49% 42% — 8%
Public Policy Polling September 7–9, 2012 1,122 ± 2.9% 50% 41% — 9%
We Ask America September 25–27, 2012 1,258 ± 2.85% 52% 41% — 7%
Public Policy Polling October 2–3, 2012 778 ± n/a% 51% 41% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 8, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 52% 39% 4% 5%
Albuquerque Poll Journal October 9–11, 2012 658 ± 3.8% 48% 39% 4% 9%
Public Policy Polling October 23–24, 2012 727 ± n/a% 52% 44% — 3%
Albuquerque Poll Journal October 23–25, 2012 662 ± 3.8% 50% 42% 3% 6%

Results
United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2012[34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Martin Heinrich 395,717 51.01% -19.60%
Republican Heather Wilson 351,259 45.28% +15.95%
Independent American Jon Barrie 28,199 3.63% N/A
Independent Robert L. Anderson (write-in) 617 0.08% N/A
Total votes '775,792' '100.0%' N/A
Democratic hold

See also

References
  1. Cillizza, Chris (February 19, 2011). "Bingaman won't run for Senate in 2012". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 19, 2011.
  2. Trygstad, Kyle (April 26, 2011). "Balderas Enters N.M. Senate Race Against Heinrich". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  3. Trygstad, Kyle (April 2, 2011). "Heinrich Makes N.M. Senate Bid Official". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  4. Haussamen, Heath (June 29, 2011). "Chávez is running for Congress; Denish isn't". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  5. Catanese, David (June 29, 2011). "Chavez sets up primary for Heinrich seat". Politico. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  6. "Andres Valdez Out of U.S. Senate Race". Associated Press. Albuquerque Journal. February 14, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  7. Catanese, David (July 6, 2011). "Diane Denish endorses Balderas". Politico. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  8. Trygstad, Kyle (July 6, 2011). "Denish to Endorse Balderas in N.M. Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  9. Catanese, David (April 25, 2011). "Ben Ray Lujan won't run for Senate". Politico. Retrieved April 25, 2011.
  10. Trygstad, Kyle (December 6, 2011). "Martin Heinrich Nabs Raúl Grijalva's Support in Senate Race". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  11. "Individual Endorsements". Martin Heinrich for Senate. Archived from the original on May 9, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  12. "NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC Announces New Endorsements in Key House, Senate Contests to End War on Women". NARAL Pro-Choice America. April 3, 2012. Archived from the original on May 12, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  13. "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Martin Heinrich for U. S. Senate". Martin Heinrich for Senate. February 21, 2012. Archived from the original on October 1, 2012. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  14. "Endorsements". Martin Heinrich for Senate. Archived from the original on May 9, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  15. "Endorsements". Balderas for Senate 2012. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  16. "Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 5, 2012 – State of New Mexico" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2013. Retrieved August 3, 2012.
  17. Haussamen, Heath (December 16, 2010). "Sowards announces candidacy for Senate". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  18. Haussamen, Heath (March 7, 2011). "Wilson formally enters U.S. Senate race". NMPolitics.net. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  19. "Republican Candidate Bill English Withdraws from New Mexico U.S. Senate Race, Endorses Sowards". Tea Party Tribune. January 11, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  20. Trygstad, Kyle (February 9, 2012). "Republican John Sanchez Drops New Mexico Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  21. Burns, Peter (February 18, 2011). "Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson will not run for Senate". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved February 18, 2011.
  22. "Pearce re-election committee has balance of $682K". Las Cruces Sun-News. April 17, 2012. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  23. "Endorsements". Heather Wilson for United States Senate. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  24. Peters, Joey (January 5, 2012). "Independent With Libertarian Bent Announces Bid For US Senate". Santa Fe Reporter. Retrieved May 13, 2012.
  25. Heinrich Campaign Finances
  26. Wilson Campaign Finances
  27. Barrie Campaign Finances
  28. Top Contributors 2012 Race: New Mexico Senate, Center for Responsive Politics
  29. Donors by Industries (opensecrets.org)
  30. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  31. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  32. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  33. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  34. http://www.sos.state.nm.us/uploads/files/Pages%20from%20ALLNMG12%20CAN%20STATEWIDE.pdf
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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