Korean peace process

Korean peace process
Date After Korean War 1950-53 (After Korean War 1950-53)
Also known as Ending the Korean War 1950-53
Organized by President of the South Korea Moon Jae-in,
Chairman of DPRK Kim Jong-un,
President of the United States Donald Trump,
President of the China Xi Jinping,
Participants  South Korea
 North Korea
 United States
 China
Outcome Ending the Korean War 1950-53, Restoration of diplomatic relations between South and North Koreas

The Korean peace process was initiated in 2018 in order to overcome the long-term Korean conflict and denuclearize the Korean peninsula. A series of summits were held between North Korea's Kim Jong-un, South Korea's Moon Jae-in, and Donald Trump of the United States.

Background

In 1945, at the end of World War Two, Korea was divided. In 1950, war broke out between North and South Korea. The United States intervened to defend the South and has continued a military presence to the present day. Sporadic conflict continued between the two sides.

At the end of the Cold War, North Korea lost its supporters in the Soviet Bloc.[1] In December 1991 North and South Korea made an accord, the Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression, Exchange and Cooperation, pledging non-aggression and cultural and economic exchanges. They also agreed to prior notification of major military movements and established a military hotline, and to work on replacing the armistice with a "peace regime".[2][3][4]

In 1994, concern over North Korea's nuclear program led to the Agreed Framework between the US and North Korea.[5] In 1998, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung announced a Sunshine Policy towards North Korea. An Inter-Korean summit was held in 2000. Continuing concerns about North Korea's development of nuclear missiles led in 2003 to the six-party talks that included North Korea, South Korea, the US, Russia, China, and Japan.[6] In 2006, however, North Korea resumed testing missiles and on October 9 conducted its first nuclear test.[7] A second inter-Korean summit was held in 2007.[8] By 2017, estimates of North Korea's nuclear arsenal ranged between 15 and 60 bombs, probably including hydrogen bombs. In the opinion of analysts, the Hwasong-15 missile is capable of striking anywhere in the United States.[9]

Thaw at the Winter Games

Kim Jong-un meeting with South Korean envoys at the Workers' Party of Korea main building, 6 March 2018

In May 2017 Moon Jae-in was elected President of South Korea with a promise to return to the Sunshine Policy.[10] In his New Year address for 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un proposed sending a delegation to the upcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea.[11] The Seoul–Pyongyang hotline was reopened after almost two years.[12] At the Winter Olympics, North and South Korea marched together in the opening ceremony and fielded a united women's ice hockey team.[13] As well as the athletes, North Korea sent an unprecedented high-level delegation, headed by Kim Yo-jong, sister of Kim Jong-un, and President Kim Yong-nam, and including performers like the Samjiyon Orchestra.[14] The delegation passed on an invitation to President Moon to visit North Korea.[14] Following the Olympics, authorities of the two countries raised the possibility that they could host the 2021 Asian Winter Games together.[15] On 1 April, South Korean K-pop stars performed a concert in Pyongyang entitled "Spring is Coming", which was attended by Kim Jong-un and his wife.[16] Meanwhile, propaganda broadcasts stopped on both sides.[17]

April 2018 inter-Korean summit

Kim and Moon shake hands in greeting at the demarcation line.

On 27 April, a summit took place between Moon and Kim in the South Korean zone of the Joint Security Area. It was the first time since the Korean War that a North Korean leader had entered South Korean territory.[18] North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korea's President Moon Jae-in met at the line that divides Korea.[19] The summit ended with both countries pledging to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.[20][21] They also vowed to declare an official end to the Korean War within a year.[22] As part of the Panmunjom Declaration which was signed by leaders of both countries, both sides also called for the end of longstanding military activities in the region of the Korean border and a reunification of Korea.[23] In 2018, a majority of South Koreans approved the new relationship.[24] Also, the leaders agreed to work together to connect and modernise their railways.[25]

On 5 May, North Korea adjusted its time zone to match the South's.[26] In May, South Korea began removing propaganda loudspeakers from the border area in line with the Panmunjom Declaration.[27]

May 2018 inter-Korean summit

Moon and Kim met on 26 May to discuss Kim's upcoming summit with Trump.[28] The summit led to further meetings between North and South Korean officials during June.[29] On June 1, officials from both countries agreed to move forward with the military and Red Cross talks.[30] They also agreed to reopen a jointly operated liaison office in Kaesong that the South had shut down in February 2016 after a North Korean nuclear test.[30] The second meeting, involving the Red Cross and military, was held at North Korea's Mount Kumgang resort on June 22 where it was agreed that family reunions would resume.[31]

2018 North Korea–United States summit

Kim and Trump at Singapore

Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un on June 12, 2018, in Singapore, in the first summit meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea. They signed a joint statement, agreeing to security guarantees for North Korea, new peaceful relations, reaffirmation of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, recovery of soldiers' remains, and follow-up negotiations between high-level officials. Immediately following the summit, Trump announced that the US would discontinue "provocative" joint military exercises with South Korea, and he wishes to bring the U.S. forces back home at some point, but he reinforced that’s not part of the Singapore equation.[32][33]

Aftermath of Singapore summit

Questions about compliance

On June 26, CNN reported that satellite images from June 2018 show that North Korea was making numerous improvements to the infrastructure at a nuclear research facility.[34] However, the media source 38 North, an American agency which monitors North Korea, told CNN that only two small roof buildings had been newly erected, which might be used for hospitality roles for senior officials or nuclear inspectors. Other improved infrastructures were already developed before the Trump-Kim Summit.[35][36] On June 30, NBC reported that, according to an assessment by the U.S. intelligence agencies, North Korea might have increased production of fuel for nuclear weapons at multiple secret sites after the summit, though if the process of enrichment had occurred, it must have begun before the summit.[37][38] On August 3, experts monitoring U.N. sanctions against North Korea sent a report to the UN Security Council saying North Korea "has not stopped its nuclear and missiles programs" and is still violating sanctions by transferring coal at sea and flouting an arms embargo and financial sanctions.[39][40] However, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri-Yong Ho said in a privilege speech at the ASEAN summit, that a “good-faith implementation of the Joint Statement (between the USA and DPRK) would be necessary”. Referring to this same speech, the North Korea monitoring specialist Group, 38 North, believes that in order to achieve the goal to denuclearize, a scheme of ALL TAKE-NO GIVE will never work with DPRK.[41][42][43][44][45]

Progress of joint statement

The director of USC Korean Studies Institute David C. Kang published the analysis of North Korea's solution on NYTimes. Trump administration should proceed with the necessary action items of U.S. side to ask DPRK for giving up their Nuclear Weapons. He emphasized that unilateral disarmament of DPRK will be impractical, and the "phased" and "synchronous" approach with "step by step" negotiations will be a reasonable way with respect to the Joint statement on Singapore summit. DPRK showed more than eight types of various actions of their parts in several ways; a moratorium on missile/nuclear test, dismantled a primary Punggye-ri atomic test site and satellite launching site at Sohae, shutdown ICBM assembly facility near Pyongyang, returned 55 U.S. Soldiers killed in the Korean War, removed domestic anti-American propaganda and has released three American Citizens arrested in DPRK as a condition or action items of the summit. However, U.S. has done only one action; just cancelled the war game of USFK. It is the United States's turn to show concrete actions according to the Singapore agreement with North Korea's safety concerns, and Pyongyang would make any further moves to denuclearize depending on Washington's progress.[46][47] N. Korean minister Ri Yong-ho says the U.S. is backtracking or no progress of US side on Sentosa deal although North Korea has made a set of measures that they recently taken including a cessation on nuclear and missile testing and the removal of a primary nuclear site.[48] Pompeo requested North Korea to hand over its nuclear arsenal by 60 to 70 percent within six to eight months. However, Pyongyang did not accept the proposal.[49] North Korean foreign minister releases an announcement criticising unilateral denuclearization, and Ri Yong-ho emphasises that it is fair to perform “balanced, simultaneous, step-by-step implementation” of Joint Statement between US and DPRK.[50] There are four action items on the joint statement, the first and second items are the establishment of the new U.S.-DPRK relations, the third one is denuclearization, and the final thing is recovering POW/MIA remains. Currently, there are three nuclear bomber fighters in USFK: B-1, B-2, B-52, and North and South Korea are still technically at war. DPRK urged US to guarantee DPRK's security by the declaration of ending the Korean war 1950-53 for giving up DPRK's nuclear program and nuclear weapons.[51] Doug Bandow who was a special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, suggested US to provide DPRK with a safety framework such as a peace treaty to abandon their nuclear program as Muammar Gaddafi trusted American's proposal, but he was miserably killed after disarming his weapons program as there was no systematic security guarantee of Muammar. [52]

Pompeo's subsequent visits to North Korea

On July 6–7, Pompeo travelled to North Korea for the third time to continue the negotiations with General Kim Yong-chol, Kim's right-hand man. After the meeting, Pompeo stated that the talks had been productive and that progress had been made "on almost all of the central issues". However, the North Korean state media criticized the meeting soon after, saying the U.S. had shown a "gangster-like attitude" and calling the demands of the Trump administration "deeply regrettable".[53] Notwithstanding the stern reports, Pompeo delivered a letter from Kim to Trump, in which the latter expressed his hope for successful implementation of the US-North Korea Joint Statement and reaffirmed his will for improving the relations between the countries.[54]

Pompeo announced on August 23, 2018, that he would return to North Korea the following week for the fourth round of talks.[55] The following day, Trump tweeted that he had asked Pompeo not to make the trip because he felt "we are not making sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."[56] Concerning the cancellation of Pompeo’s planned North Korea trip, Vox summarized the background based on the reports by the Washington Post and CNN that North Korea delivered an irate letter to Pompeo and the letter was shown to Trump in the Oval Office on Friday, and Trump tweeted the cancellation of Pompeo's trip. The message from DPRK was North Korea's evident disappointment as Washington had shown no real eagerness to sign a peace treaty to end the Korean War.[57][58][59] S. Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha urges continued U.S.- DPRK talks despite Trump's cancellation of Pompeo trip. Kang spoke to Pompeo by telephone on 25 Aug, and expressed concern over the cancellation of the trip while calling for continued discussions on peace and resolution of North Korea’s nuclear program. Kang also stated “it is more imperative to concentrate diplomatic efforts on the faithful fulfilling of what has been agreed in the 2018 Trump-Kim and the inter-Korean summit while sustaining the energy for talks on the long-term standpoint”. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono revealed appreciation for Pompeo’s “prompt communication” with South Korea, and Japan would be pleased to cooperate with the U.S. for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.[60][61]

Return of remains of US soldiers

After the Trump-Kim summit, North Korea searched for and returned the remains of U.S. POWs and MIAs from the Korean War.
The remains of US soldiers in DPRK start the journey to the U.S. after 65 years.
The US war remains were delivered from the eastern DPRK city of Wonsan by U.S. military transport plane C-17 Globemaster to the Osan Air Base near Seoul in South Korea.

On June 27, Pompeo said North Korea was planning to hand over presumed remains of U.S. soldiers killed during the Korean War in the near future.[62] In preparation, the U.S. military had moved 158 metal coffins through the DMZ border between North and South Korea one week earlier.[63]

Following Pompeo's second visit to Pyongyang, a lower ranks meeting took place on July 15 regarding the retrieving of remains of US soldiers from the Korean War. Pompeo called the talks "productive" and said the two sides had reached firm commitments on the issue.[64] On July 27 North Korea handed over 55 boxes of human remains, thus starting to fulfill their pledge in the Singapore declaration. The remains were saluted in a ceremony in their honor by US soldiers.[65] More than 36,000 American troops died during the Korean War, but some 7,700 remains unaccounted for, including 5,300 believed to have died in North Korea. Earlier, 220 remains were recovered during the years 1996-2005.[66] North Korea reported to the U.S. Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency that they couldn't be sure how many individuals were represented in each of the 55 boxes.[67]

There was uncertainty about the nationality of the war remains,[68] whether the individuals were American or from other countries that took part in the Korean War, such as Australia, Belgium, France. and the Philippines.[69] Kelly McKeague, the director of the POW/MIA Accounting Agency, said a preliminary review showed that the remains are "consistent" with being American and are from the Battle of Chosin Reservoir.[70] The next phase would be matching the dental records, x-rays and DNA testing to further analyze the remains for possible identification. McKeague expressed his opinion that North Korea needs to allow the resumption of joint U.S.-North Korean searches of battlefields and POW camp graveyards to discover more war remains as soon as practical.[71]

Shutdown of ICBM assembly facility near Pyongyang

The Voice of America (VOA) reported on July 25; there is evidence that North Korea has dismantled an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) construction facility near Pyongyang. It was confirmed by analyzing satellite images taken around the Mar. 16 with the latest satellite images in July. It was the investigated place of the factory that the Hwasong-15 ICBM that North Korea test-launched on Nov. 29, 2017, was assembled at this plant and then moved on a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL). Kim Jong-un was at this vehicle factory that was connected to the ICBM assembly factory when he gave the command for the transfer of the TEL carrying the Hwasong-15 ICBM. State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert announced that the U.S would be looking for DPRK's consent for allowing the Verification process of the denuclearization of North Korea. Heather also added “Verification is obviously something that is paramount. Verification from legitimate groups and done by legitimate countries." [72]

Destruction of missile test site

North Korea dismantled the various significant parts and permanent structure of the Sohae ICBM missile & Satellite Launching Station.
The DPRK Government had begun to dismantle a ICBM rocket launching and testing engine site to demonstrate its commitment to denuclearization. CBS News identified the site; it's the freshest of North Korea’s recognised major missile testing facilities.[73]

On July 24, it was reported that North Korea had begun to dismantle a rocket launching and testing site near Tonchang, an action which Kim had pledged to Trump. South Korean President Moon called the move "a good sign for North Korea’s denuclearization".[74] The North Korea monitoring specialist group 38 North found that the Sohae Station, a satellite-launch site in North Korea, was being demolished. Satellite imagery shows that several significant structures were destroyed: a missile-launching stand and a building near a launchpad for satellites. 38 North suggested that it is an essential beginning step towards achieving a commitment made by Kim Jong Un at the June 12 Singapore Summit.[75] On 7 August, there is more progress on Dismantling Facilities at the Sohae Satellite and Missile Launching Station. it entails the demolition of the test stand’s concrete foundations, launch pad’s gantry tower and pad foundation, etc. While the previous dismantlement of the vertical engine test stand on 23 July, represents a fulfilment of Chairman Kim’s arrangement with President Trump conducted publicly during the post-Singapore Summit press conference, activity at the launch pad and concrete foundation appears to go exceeding that pledge. These activities, however, must be viewed cautiously as “principal steps” since neither are presently permanent or irreversible. Concerning 38North's scrutiny, it would characterize more durable and irreversible actions as there is no identified facility with equivalent capabilities elsewhere in the DPRK.[76]

Negotiation process between US and DPRK

In August during the ASEAN Regional Forum 2018, North Korea's nuclear program was the critical agenda item. ASEAN forum foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling for a "complete denuclearization" which is the same phrase used in the joint statement issued after the summit, and represents a change from last year's call for a "complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization".[77] South Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha has said that she had "considerable" consultations over the issue of the declaration to a formal end of the 1950-53 Korean war with the Chinese and U.S. foreign ministers.[78] Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said "everyone can announce a declaration ending the war if they do not want the war to happen again".[79] North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said he was “alarmed” by U.S. insistence on maintaining sanctions until North Korea denuclearizes and what he said was U.S. reluctance to declare a formal end to the Korean War.[80] United States Forces in Korea maintains several nuclear bomber fighters and DPRK is demanding USA safety guarantee for giving up nuclear weapon programs of Pyongyang.[51]

Reaction within North Korea

DPRK removed the anti-American propaganda after the Singapore summit, and Pyongyang cancelled the annual anti-US rally.[81][82]

North Korea staged a grand parade for its 70th anniversary without its ICBM ballistic missiles.[83][84]

The North Korea monitoring specialist group 38 North revealed the several new evidence of movement of DPRK that support the current slogan “all for the economy” approach of DPRK, in contrast to the previous slogan "all for the military”. Especially, the motto fits into this wider picture that Kim’s widely publicized “on-the-spot guidances” in July 2018 and Kim’s repeated and open criticisms of sloppiness and bad financial performances of the concerned officials of North Korea.[85] Kim also explains his focus by leading "on-the-spot guidances” tours to the several farms, factories and construction sites.[86][87][88]

North-South Relations

South Korea announced on 23 June 2018 that it would not conduct annual military exercises with the US in September, and would also stop its own drills in the Yellow Sea, in order to not provoke North Korea and to continue a peaceful dialog.[89] On 1 July 2018 South and North Korea have resumed ship-to-ship radio communication, which could prevent accidental clashes between South and North Korean military vessels around the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West (Yellow) Sea.[90] On 17 July 2018, South and North Korea fully restored their military communication line on the western part of the peninsula.[91]

South Korea and North Korea competed as "Korea" in some events at the 2018 Asian Games.[92] The co-operation extended to the film industry, with South Korea giving their approval to screen North Korean movies at the country's local festival while inviting several moviemakers from the latter.[93][94][95] In August 2018 reunions of families divided since the Korean War took place at Mount Kumgang in North Korea.[96]

South Korea’s defense ministry announced that North and South Korea initially agreed on the plans to reduce guard posts and equipment along the DMZ on its border with DPRK.[97] The announcement came after that Pyongyang has begun dismantling critical facilities at a satellite launching station in the accomplishment of a pledge by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Singapore summit with President Trump.[98] U.S. General Vincent Brooks responded, "I have some concerns about what that means militarily for the ability to defend along the Military Demarcation Line". However, he assessed the risk as being to "a reasonable degree" and said that the move represents an outstanding opportunity to reduce tensions on the DMZ.[99]

Third inter-Korean summit in 2018

Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in holding the Declaration after signing the "Pyongyang Joint Declaration of September 2018".
Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un on Mt. Paektu

On 13 August, Blue House announced that South Korea's President plans to attend the third inter-Korean summit with leader Kim Jong-un at Pyongyang in September as expected. The agenda would be finding the strategy of the breakthrough in its hampered talks with U.S and solution for the denuclearization on the Korean peninsula.[100][101][102] Chinese state media Xinhua, greeted the decision of holding the next inter-Korea leaders'summit in Pyongyang. Xinhua expressed that U. S. has had a vital impact on the "Korean Peninsula issue" and requested on Washington to play a more dynamic role in regional matters. Xinhua also viewed negatively the United States' North Korea policy with "maximum pressure" although Pyongyang has made efforts to "shut down" the Punggye-ri primary nuclear test site, return the remains of the U.S. soldiers from the 1950-53 Korean War, and stimulate negotiations between North and South.[103] S. Korea Blue House announced the confirmed date of the 3rd Inter Korean summit which is 18–20 September.[104] In Pyongyang, an agreement titled the “Pyongyang Joint Declaration of September 2018” was signed by both Korean leaders[105] The agreement calls for the removal of landmines planted throughout the JSA from both sides of the North-South Korean border.[106] The DPRK agreed to dismantle their nuclear complex in the presence of international experts if the U.S. takes correlative action.[107] Moon became the first South Korean leader to give a speech to the North Korean public when he addressed 150,000 spectators at the Arirang Festival on 19 September.[108]

On September 5, during the meeting with South Korean special envoy Chung Eun-yong about the 3rd Inter Korean summit, Kim Jong-un declared that he wants to accomplish the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula before the US leader Donald Trump completes his first term which is January 2021.[109][110]

Request for second North Korea–United States summit

US President has received a letter from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un asking for a second meeting, and the White House is already staring at scheduling one, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders stated while plans were moving to make it happen, no details had been finalized.

Regarding the letter from DPRK, the National Security Adviser John Bolton announced the U.S. was waiting on Pyongyang to take steps toward denuclearization, but he stressed that "President Trump can't make the North Koreans walk through the door he is holding open".[111][112][113]

Controversy

On August 29, the Atlantic reported on an interview with Moon Chung In who is the special envoy from South Korea. His understanding is that the diplomatic team of Mike Pompeo is having difficulties discussing with the defense team National Security Adviser John Bolton; This divided stance between the US Diplomatic team and the US defense team may have played a significant role in the delay of the signing of the promised peace declaration. The Hill reported on the U.S. presidents verbal agreement with DPRK to end the Korean War on both the June 1st meeting at the White House, and during the Summit held in Singapore. However, soon after the Summit meeting, the U.S. demanded denuclearization from North Korea before signing on the Peace Declaration document.[114] [115][116] [117] [118][119]

References

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  67. ↑ 3 Aug 2018:Remains returned from North Korea ‘consistent’ with being American and from the Korean War, Pentagon says | CNBC News
  68. ↑ USA-NEWS - 2 Aug 2018:Korean War remains returned by North Korea could take years to identify, Pentagon says | USA TODAY News
  69. ↑ TIME-NEWS - 5 Aug 2018:North Korea Handed Over Only a Single Dog Tag With 55 Sets of U.S. War Remains | TIME News
  70. ↑ ABC-NEWS - 5 Aug 2018:Remains from North Korea likely American soldiers who fought at Chosin Reservoir | abc News
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  74. ↑ "President Moon confirms shutdown of rockets site". July 26, 2018.
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  76. ↑ "More Progress on Dismantling Facilities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station". Aug 7, 2018.
  77. ↑ asia.nikkei.com - 5 Aug 2018: Let's offer North Korea a peace treaty officially ending the Korean War
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