Climate change in Turkey

Bananas growing in Rize Province on the Black Sea

Turkey is one of the countries which will be most affected by global warming.[1] Annual temperatures in Turkey are rising[2] as are maximum temperatures.[3] Turkey emits 1% of global greenhouse gases[4] and emissions are forecast to rise substantially[5] because the energy policy of Turkey is to heavily subsidize local coal.[6]


Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey

Turkey emitted 500 Mt CO2eq in 2016, about 6 tons per person.[7] Almost three quarters was from the energy sector,[7] mainly coal-fired power stations.[8]

Effects

Turkey is forecast to be more severely effected than many other countries,[9] but effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.[10]

Weather

The weather is becoming more extreme.[11] During the 21st century temperatures are forecast to rise by 2-3°C on average and precipitation to significantly reduce.[12] However as well as more droughts more floods are predicted, due to rain falling instead of snow.[13]

Cities

Urban heatwaves,[14] droughts,[15] storms,[16] and flooding,[17] may increase.[18] Sea level rise is forecast to affect city infrastructure, for example Istanbul Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.[19] Xeriscaping of green spaces has been suggested,[20] however Istanbul does not have a climate change action plan merely an inactive website.[21]

Glaciers

The glaciers on Mount Ararat are retreating.[22]

Agriculture

Agriculture is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.[23] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.[1] Irrigated agriculture will decline as water stress increases and increasing food imports will hit Turkey’s trade balance.[23] Damage to agriculture [24] is predicted to greatly increase.[23] Pine nut production has been severely reduced.[25]

Fishing

The warming of Lake Van is reducing oxygen for pearl mullet.[26]

Politics

Turkey has not yet ratified the Paris Agreement or Kigali Amendment and has no carbon tax or emissions trading scheme; and Turkey’s national communications to the UNFCC tend to be months or years late.[27] Also "given the fact that a new coal-fired power plant has a minimum of 40 years of economic life, Turkey's coal rush could create an inextricable carbon lock-in."[9] In Istanbul in 2015 Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.[28]

Education

Climate change education is supported by the EU.[29]

Misunderstandings about climate change

Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).[30] Warming of seawater by nuclear power plants is wrongly thought by some to be significant in hindering adaptation to climate change,[10] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO2[31] (research on this due 2019 is being funded by the EBRD).

Mitigation

Turkey’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), submitted in 2015, are up to 21 percent reduction in GHG emissions from the Business as Usual (BAU) level by 2030[32] but that would still result in a large rise in emissions[33] and has been described as “critically insufficient”.[34]

Energy

As Turkey has plenty of water (for the moment), wind and sunshine it would be relatively easy for the country to escape from carbon lock-in [35] if Turkey’s energy policy was changed to remove fossil fuel subsidies.

Economics

Turkey's own carbon emissions cost Turkey money, even without considering possible carbon tariffs from other countries.[36] Plans and policies specified in the 2015 INDC[32] are claimed to be insufficient to meet Turkey’s INDC emissions target.[37] The long-term impact of climate change on any economy is highly uncertain and very difficult to estimate.[38] However short-term co-benefits of climate change mitigation have been estimated at over US$50/tonne CO2 abated for health alone for middle income countries generally.[39][40] Boğaziçi University have developed an decision support tool and integrated assessment model for energy and environmental policy for Turkey[41][42] and one study puts the health benefits at 2.9 – 3.6 billion EUR per year[43] (mainly a substantial increase in GDP due to reduced PM 2.5 air pollution[44][45] ) and another that by creating a national emissions trading market at a 50USD/tonne carbon price the INDC commitment could be met at a cost of 0.8% of GDP by 2030 (but did not estimate the benefits).[46] Another study suggests that a revenue neutral carbon tax might be best for the economy.[47] Countries without a carbon tax or emissions trading could be vulnerable to future carbon tariffs imposed by the EU[48][49], the UK or other export partners.[50]

Finance

Turkey receives by far the most EU climate change financing[51] and the EBRD is investing.[52]

Reforestation and other land use changes

Reforestation and changes in land use may offset 10% to 15% of fossil fuel emissions,[53] but this estimate is highly uncertain[54] as warmer and dryer air in the south and west may make it difficult to sustain the present forest cover.[55] However government and the NGO the TEMA Foundation are encouraging reforestation and in 2015 stated that by 2050 “forests are envisioned to stretch across over four-fifths of the country's territory”.[56]

Soil

Three quarters of the land is deficient in soil organic carbon[57] and this is being mapped to be added to Turkey's national soil database.[58]

Renewable energy and energy efficiency

National and international investments are being made in renewable energy and energy efficiency, for example by the EBRD. Smart meters are being installed but at a slow pace.[59]

Buildings

Building standards do not take into account the climate differences across Turkey; and the existing 2005 Environment Act, Energy Efficiency Regulation and green building certificates are often not properly implemented; adopting the EU standard (2018/844/EU amending the Directive on the energy performance of buildings) to increase the proportion of passive houses has also been suggested by academics.[60]

Transport

Cities could be improved to make local journeys by bicycle safer.[61]

Adaptation

Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered[62] but Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.[54]

References

  • Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl (May 2017). "Climate friendly Green Economy Policies" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center.
  • Atilgan, Burcin; Azapagic, Adisa (2016). "An integrated life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity generation in Turkey". Energy Policy. 93.
  • Jensen, Génon K. (May 2014). "THE UNPAID HEALTH BILL: HOW COAL POWER PLANTS IN TURKEY MAKE US SICK" (PDF). Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL).
  • ŞAHIN, Ümit (April 2016). "TURKEY'S COAL POLICIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMY AND HEALTH" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center.
  • ŞAHIN, Ümit (February 2018). "CARBON LOCK-IN IN TURKEY" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center.
  • "SIXTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF TURKEY Under The UNFCCC" (PDF). Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. 2016.
  1. 1 2 "Küresel ısınma". Kocaeli Province water board. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  2. ↑ Şen, Prof. Dr. Ömer Lütfi. "CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY". Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  3. ↑ "Monthly and Seasonal Trend Analysis of Maximum Temperatures over Turkey" (PDF). International Journal of Engineering Science and Computing. 7 (11). November 2017. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  4. ↑ "Each Country's Share of CO2 Emissions". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  5. ↑ "BROWN TO GREEN: G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY" (PDF). Climate Transparency. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  6. ↑ "Fossil Fuel Support - TUR", OECD, accessed September 2018.
  7. 1 2 "Statistics on Environment, 2016". Turkish Statistical Institute. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
  8. ↑ CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: Highlights (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2017. p. 97.
  9. 1 2 "WARMING A FROZEN POLICY: CHALLENGES TO TURKEY'S CLIMATE POLITICS AFTER PARIS". Turkish Policy Quarterly.
  10. 1 2 İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİN YEREL ETKİLERİ RAPORU (PDF). TEMA Vakfı Proje Ekibi WWF-Türkiye Proje Ekibi. March 2015. ISBN 978-975-7169-77-2.
  11. ↑ "Extreme weather threatens Turkey amid climate change fears". Daily Sabah. 17 May 2018.
  12. ↑ Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (2016), p. 22
  13. ↑ "Temperature to increase significantly in Turkey in 30 years due to global warming, warns climate expert". Hürriyet Daily News. 19 March 2018.
  14. ↑ "Turkey reeling from African heat wave". Daily Sabah. 2 July 2017.
  15. ↑ "Gov't forced to take measures amid below average rainfall across Turkey". Hürriyet Daily News. 21 January 2018.
  16. ↑ "Lightning electrifies Istanbul, northwestern Turkey skies as thunderstorms take over". Daily Sabah. 24 July 2018.
  17. ↑ "Istanbul flood result of Turkey's climate change". ANADOLU AGENCY. 27 July 2017.
  18. ↑ ŞEN, ÖMER LÜTFİ. "CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY". MERCATOR-IPC FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM. Retrieved 27 September 2018.
  19. ↑ "Temperature to increase significantly in Turkey in 30 years due to global warming, warns climate expert". Hürriyet Daily News. 19 March 2018.
  20. ↑ Çetin, Nefise; Mansuroğlu, Sibel; Kalaycı Önaç, Ayşe. "Xeriscaping Feasibility as an Urban Adaptation Method for Global Warming: A Case Study from Turkey". Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 27 (3): 1009–1018. Retrieved 27 September 2018.
  21. ↑ "İstanbul Climate Change Action Plan Preparation Project". Retrieved 27 September 2018.
  22. ↑ Baldasso, V.; Soncini, A.; Azzoni, R.S.; et al. (2018). "Recent evolution of glaciers in Western Asia in response to global warming: the case study of Mount Ararat, Turkey". Theor Appl Climatol.
  23. 1 2 3 Dudu, Hasan; Çakmak, Erol H. (2018). "Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey". Climate and Development. 10 (3): 275–288. doi:10.1080/17565529.2017.1372259. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  24. ↑ Ağaçayak, Tuğba; Keyman, E. Fuat. "WATER AND FOOD SECURITY IN TURKEY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  25. ↑ "Climate change hits Turkey's richest highland villages". Daily Sabah.
  26. ↑ "Lake Van warms up, threatening ecosystem". IHLAS NEWS AGENCY. 21 February 2018.
  27. ↑ "Seventh National Communications - Annex I". UNFCC. Retrieved 3 October 2018.
  28. ↑ "Islamic Declaration on Climate Change" UNFCCC, 18 August 2015
  29. ↑ "Enhancing Required Joint Efforts on Climate Action Project".
  30. ↑ Yalcin, Fatma Aggul; Yalcin, Mehmet (2017). "Turkish Primary Science Teacher Candidates' Understandings of Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion". Journal of Education and Training Studies. 5 (10).
  31. ↑ Aksoy, Niyazi; Gok, Ozge Solak; Mutlu, Halim; Kılınc, Gizem (2015). "CO2 Emission from Geothermal Power Plants in Turkey". Proceedings World Geothermal Congress.
  32. 1 2 "REPUBLIC OF TURKEY INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION" (PDF).
  33. ↑ "The Emissions Gap Report 2017 page 9" United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
  34. ↑ "Turkey". Climate Action Tracker. Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  35. ↑ Şahin (2018), p. 5
  36. ↑ "New study finds incredibly high carbon pollution costs – especially for the US and India". The Guardian. 1 October 2018.
  37. ↑ "Achieving Turkey's INDC Target: Assessments of NCCAP and INDC Documents and Proposing Conceivable Policies". Sustainability. 10 (6): 1722. 2018.
  38. ↑ Stoerk, Thomas; Wagner, Gernot; Ward, Robert E T (1 August 2018). "Policy Brief—Recommendations for Improving the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Estimates of Climate Impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 12 (2): 371–376.
  39. ↑ "Multiple benefits from climate change mitigation: assessing the evidence". London School of Economics.
  40. ↑ "MONETIZING THE HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF A CARBON TAX". Niskanen Center. Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  41. ↑ Isik, Mine. "Development of the Boğaziçi University Energy Modeling System (BUEMS) and its Application on Economic and Technological Implications of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions in Turkey". ResearchGate. Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  42. ↑ "Boğaziçi Üniversitesi'nden Türkiye'nin enerji politikalarına yön verecek araştırma". Boğaziçi University. Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  43. ↑ Jenson (2014), p. 6
  44. ↑ "Air Pollution and Health in Turkey Facts, Figures and Recommendations" (PDF). Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL). Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  45. ↑ "Pant by numbers: the cities with the most dangerous air – listed". The Guardian. 13 February 2017.
  46. ↑ "Researchers examine Turkey to assess the impact of 2015 Paris climate commitments on a national economy". MIT. 31 July 2018.
  47. ↑ Bavbek, Gökşin (October 2016). "Assessing the Potential Effects of a Carbon Tax in Turkey" (PDF). Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) Energy and Climate Change Climate Action Paper (6).
  48. ↑ "Carbon tariffs are EU's secret weapon in trade battle". Daily Telegraph. 5 June 2018.
  49. ↑ "Pollution Costs at Decade High Squeeze Industry, Coal in Europe". Bloomberg. 24 August 2018.
  50. ↑ "Carbon Tariffs: A Climate Necessity?". Kluwer Regulating for Globalization. Retrieved 11 October 2018.
  51. ↑ "Questions raised about EU climate financing as Turkey takes biggest share". devex. 18 April 2018.
  52. ↑ "Turkey: Notes from a state of (climatic) emergency". Climate Home.
  53. ↑ Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (2016), p. 18
  54. 1 2 "The Carbon Brief Profile: Turkey". Carbon Brief. Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  55. ↑ "PROVINCE BASED FOREST COVER (%)". CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY.
  56. ↑ "What can Africa learn from Turkey's reforestation?". World Economic Forum. 29 October 2015.
  57. ↑ "Turkish soil at risk as worldwide desertification spreads". Daily Sabah. 19 June 2018.
  58. ↑ SONMEZ; et al. (March 2017). "Turkey's National Geospatial Soil Organic Carbon Information System" (PDF). GLOBAL SYMPOSIUM ON SOIL ORGANIC CARBON.
  59. ↑ "Analysis: Smart energy investments in Turkey". Smart Energy International. 29 August 2017.
  60. ↑ Aşıcı (2017), pages 8 and 30
  61. ↑ Aşıcı (2017), page 32
  62. ↑ "Turkey's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan" (PDF). General Directorate of Environmental Management, Department of Climate Change, August 2012, Ankara (2nd edition). Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning (Turkey). Retrieved 1 October 2018.

See also

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