Climate change in Pakistan

The effects of climate change and global warming on Pakistan, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of Pakistan. In Pakistan, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of Pakistan has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Pakistan makes a tiny contribution to total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, less than 1% (among the lowest in the world)[1] but it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, and it has very low technical and financial capacity to adapt to its adverse impacts.[2]

Climate Change Mitigation Pakistan’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are low compared to international standards. In 2008 Pakistan’s total GHG emissions were 310 million tons of CO2 equivalent. These comprised: CO2 54%; Methane (CH4) 36%; Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 9%; Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.7%; and Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds 0.3%. (Source: National GHG inventory 2008). The energy sector is the single largest source of GHG emission in Pakistan; it accounts for nearly 51% of these emissions and is followed by the agriculture sector (39%), industrial processes (6%), land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) (3%) emissions and waste (1%) (Source: National GHG inventory 2008). As such, the most important targets for mitigation efforts focused on reduction of GHG emissions are the energy and agriculture sectors. In the energy sector, integration of climate change and energy policy objectives is particularly important as today’s investment will “lock in” the infrastructure, fuel and technologies to be used for decades to come. Similarly, the building and transport infrastructure put in place today should meet the design needs of the future. Therefore, greater attention must be paid to energy efficiency requirements in building codes and long-term transport planning.[3]

According to research led by Dr. Adil Najam at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, by 2040 the cost of climate change to agriculture in Pakistan is likely to be up to 8% of productivity but that good climate adaptation practices could result in a net productivity gain of up to 40+%.

Threats

The important climate change threats to Pakistan are:[4]

  • Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts;
  • Projected recession of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) glaciers due to global warming and carbon soot deposits from trans-boundary pollution sources, threatening water inflows into the Indus River System (IRS);
  • Increased siltation of major dams caused by more frequent and intense floods;
  • Rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to reduced agricultural productivity;
  • Further decrease in the already scanty forest cover, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to allow natural migration of adversely affected plant species;
  • Increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and the breeding grounds of fish;
  • Threat to coastal areas due to projected sea level rise and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures;
  • Increased stress between upper riparian and lower riparian regions in relation to sharing of water resources;
  • Increased health risks and climate change induced migration.

The above threats lead to major survival concerns for Pakistan, particularly in relation to the country’s water security, food security and energy security.

Disaster Preparedness

Disaster Preparedness Climate change is likely to increase climate-related natural disasters with the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides triggered by heavy rains and urban flooding due to congestion of storm drainage. Climate change projections are scenario based, and hence have some degree of uncertainty. Nonetheless, there are strong indications that in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, climate change is intensifying the above-mentioned hazards. Pakistan is already experiencing climate change impacts which are too visible to ignore. Most disasters or hazards that lead to destruction cannot be prevented; their impact however, can be minimized by adaptation and preparedness measures.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Pakistan crafts plan to cut carbon emissions 30% by 2025". The Express Tribune. 10 June 2015. Retrieved 10 June 2015.
  2. ↑ Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change
  3. ↑ Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change
  4. ↑ Pakistan National Policy on Climate Change
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