Tornado outbreak of February 5–7, 2020

Rounding out the final day of January, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began highlighting the potential for a prolonged period of severe weather across the Southern United States in the extended range forecast.[2] General 15% severe probabilities yielded to a Slight risk across portions of the central Gulf Coast region valid on February 5.[3] This outlook underwent significant expansions northward on February 4,[4][5] and an Enhanced risk was introduced from extreme northeast Louisiana into northwestern Alabama shortly before the beginning of the tornado outbreak.[6]

On the morning of February 5, a major upper-level trough was progressing eastward across the Central United States, supporting broad southwesterly winds in advance of it.[7] At the surface, a stationary front existed from northwestern Alabama into a low-pressure area over northern Louisiana, transitioning into a cold front southwestward into southeastern Texas. Despite high instability and favorable wind shear profiles, storms were initially slow to organize across Mississippi as widespread cloud cover prevented the northward progression of the warm sector and temperatures warmed aloft.[8] This trend was only temporary, however, with an abrupt increase in tornadic activity throughout the afternoon hours. Numerous tornadoes occurred throughout Mississippi into Alabama, including several strong and long-tracked tornadoes.[9] Into the overnight hours, southerly low-level winds continued to provide a moist environment, with dewpoints in the upper 60s °F. Storms intensified along an eastward-progressing cold front over Mississippi, aided by generally parallel wind shear profiles and cooling upper-level temperatures as the trough approached from the west.[10] Ahead of the front, additional supercells formed and produced tornadoes,[11] including an exceptionally long-lived EF2 tornado across Jasper, Clarke, and Lauderdale counties in Mississippi.[9] An EF1 tornado southeast of Demopolis, Alabama, destroyed two manufactured homes, causing one death and one injury.[12]

Throughout February 6, an Enhanced risk of severe weather existed across a large section of the Southeastern United States.[13] Overnight severe thunderstorms in Mississippi and Alabama continued to persist and shift eastward throughout the early morning hours.[14] Despite only modest instability across northeastern Georgia into central North Carolina,[15] the presence of a very moist and strongly-sheared environment led to many more tornadoes, including two EF2 tornadoes in North Carolina south of Kings Mountain and east of Kannapolis. The line of strong to severe thunderstorms continued eastward throughout the afternoon of February 6, producing hundreds of damaging wind reports before shifting offshore.[16] The next morning, following a brief reprieve in severe thunderstorm activity, the SPC outlined a Marginal risk across eastern Virginia and central Maryland. Here, a secondary front supported an intensifying line of thunderstorms in a low instability but high wind shear environment.[17][18] In defiance of forecasts, this band of convection produced hundreds of damaging wind reports across the Mid-Atlantic over the course of four hours.[19] In addition, five tornadoes were confirmed throughout the Washington, DC, area, making this the largest wintertime tornado outbreak on record there.[20]