Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies.[1]
Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations by SSP across the 21st century (projected by MAGICC6, a simple/reduced complexity climate model). Each dotted point represents an average of simulated values generated from 6 climate models (AIM/CGE, GCAM4, IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, REMIND-MAGPIE, & WITCH-GLOBIOM).[2]
SSPs mapped in the challenges to mitigation/adaptation space
The scenarios are:
- SSP1: Sustainability (Taking the Green Road)
- SSP2: Middle of the Road
- SSP3: Regional Rivalry (A Rocky Road)
- SSP4: Inequality (A Road divided)
- SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development (Taking the Highway) [3]
They will be used to help produce the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on global warming, due in 2021.
The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments. These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating elements of the narratives to each other.[1] In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying the scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP (per capita).[4] The SSPs can be combined with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways.[4]
References
- UNECE, 15 May 2019.
- SSP Database (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) - Version 2.0 https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/
- Carbon Brief, 19 April 2018.
- "SSP Database". tntcat.iiasa.ac.at. Retrieved 2019-11-09.
- Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang (2017-01-01). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change. 42: 153–168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. ISSN 0959-3780.
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van den Berg, Maarten; Harmsen, Mathijs; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Girod, Bastien (2017-01-01). "Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm". Global Environmental Change. 42: 237–250. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008. ISSN 0959-3780.
- Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri; Klimont, Zbigniew; Gusti, Mykola; Johnson, Nils; Kolp, Peter; Strubegger, Manfred; Valin, Hugo; Amann, Markus; Ermolieva, Tatiana (2017-01-01). "The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century". Global Environmental Change. 42: 251–267. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004. ISSN 0959-3780.
- Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Herran, Diego Silva; Dai, Hancheng; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Kainuma, Mikiko (2017-01-01). "SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". Global Environmental Change. 42: 268–283. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009. ISSN 0959-3780.
- Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Eom, Jiyong; Hartin, Corinne; Kim, Sonny; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Moss, Richard; McJeon, Haewon (2017-01-01). "The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality". Global Environmental Change. 42: 284–296. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010. ISSN 0959-3780.
- Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna (2017-01-01). "Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century". Global Environmental Change. 42: 297–315. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015. ISSN 0959-3780.
Sources
- "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)" (PDF).
- Meinshausen, Malte (2019). "Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change". In Teske, Sven (ed.). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals. Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5°C and +2°C. Springer International Publishing. pp. 459–469. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12. ISBN 9783030058432.CS1 maint: ref=harv (link)
- Hausfather, Zeke (2018-04-19). "Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change". Carbon Brief. Retrieved 2019-09-13.
- Riahi et al., The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153-168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009
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