Next Cantabrian regional election

The next Cantabrian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Parliament of the autonomous community of Cantabria. All 35 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Next Cantabrian regional election
No later than 28 May 2023
All 35 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Miguel Ángel Revilla María José Sáenz de Buruaga Pablo Zuloaga
Party PRC PP PSOE
Leader since 1983 22 January 2019 16 July 2017
Last election 14 seats, 37.6% 9 seats, 24.0% 7 seats, 17.6%
Current seats 14 9 7
Seats needed 4 9 11
 
Leader TBD Cristóbal Palacio
Party Cs Vox
Leader since — 20 March 2019
Last election 3 seats, 7.9% 2 seats, 5.1%
Current seats 3 2
Seats needed 15 16
Incumbent President

Miguel Ángel Revilla
PRC

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Cantabria was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Cantabria, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Cantabrian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Cantabria and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Cantabrians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 35 members of the Parliament of Cantabria were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][3]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Cantabria expires four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Parliament are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Cantabria and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms.[1]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[5]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Regionalist PRC 14 14
People's PP 9 9
Socialist PSOE 7 7
Citizens Cs 3 3
Mixed Vox 2 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Cantabria, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Candidate Ideology Previous result Gov.
Votes (%) Seats
PRC Miguel Ángel Revilla Regionalism
Centrism		 37.64% 14 Y
PP María José Sáenz de Buruaga Conservatism
Christian democracy		 24.04% 9 N
PSOE Pablo Zuloaga Social democracy 17.61% 7 Y
Cs TBD Liberalism 7.94% 3 N
Vox Cristóbal Palacio Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 5.06% 2 N
Podemos TBD Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 3.14% 0 N

On 19 December 2019, Félix Álvarez resigned as leader of Citizens (Cs) in Cantabria, citing "disagreements" with the party's leadership after a scandal broke out over the one-day hiring of Cs former leading candidate for the Congress of Deputies in the region, Rubén Gómez, a contract which Álvarez had publicly denied from having taken place.[6]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 18 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Cantabria.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PRC Lead
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1][p 2] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 32.5
12		 30.0
12		 18.6
7		 5.0
2		 5.9
2		 3.5
0		 1.4
0		 – 2.5
SyM Consulting[p 3][p 4] 6–8 May 2020 807 67.6 37.9
14/15		 21.2
8		 20.4
8		 4.3
0		 6.8
2/3		 5.5
2		 1.5
0		 – 16.7
SW Demoscopia[p 5][p 6] 30 Jan–7 Feb 2020 800 ? 32.5
13		 22.4
8		 22.5
9		 3.9
0		 8.6
3		 [lower-alpha 1] [lower-alpha 1] 7.1
2		 10.0
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 65.7 21.0
8		 25.9
10		 23.2
9		 4.8
0		 14.9
5		 [lower-alpha 1] [lower-alpha 1] 8.7
3		 2.7
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 65.7 37.6
14		 24.0
9		 17.6
7		 7.9
3		 5.1
2		 3.1
0		 1.9
0		 – 13.6

Notes
  1. Within Unidas Podemos.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "EP (17My): Cantabria – victoria de Revilla, pero la Presidencia pende de un hilo". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  2. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  3. "Estimación oleada Cantabria Mayo 2020. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 14 May 2020.
  4. "CANTABRIA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 14/05/2020: IU 1,5%, PODEMOS 5,5% (2), PSOE 20,4% (8), PRC 37,9% (14/15), Cs 4,3%, PP 21,2% (8), VOX 6,8% (2/3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 May 2020.
  5. "El PRC perdería a la mitad de sus votantes sin Miguel Angel Revilla como candidato". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 17 February 2020.
  6. "CANTABRIA. Encuesta SW Demoscopia: UP 7,1% (2), PSOE 22,5% (9), PRC 32,5% (13), Cs 3,9%, PP 22,4% (8), VOX 8,6% (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 February 2020.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 8/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Cantabria". Organic Law No. 8 of 30 December 1981. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 September 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 5/1987, de 27 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea Regional de Cantabria". Law No. 5 of 27 March 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. "Parliament of Cantabria elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  6. "Dimite Felisuco como portavoz de Ciudadanos en Cantabria por desavenencias con la dirección". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 December 2019. Retrieved 17 February 2020.
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