2020 Queensland state election

The 2020 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 31 October 2020 to elect the 57th Parliament of Queensland. All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of the unicameral parliament will be up for election. The two-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, will seek a third term against the Liberal National opposition, led by Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington. This will be the first election in Queensland where both major political parties are led by women,[1] and the second in any Australian state or territory after the 1995 ACT election.

2020 Queensland state election
31 October 2020
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
 
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Deb Frecklington Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) 12 December 2017 (2017-12-12) 2 February 2015 (2015-02-02)
Leader's seat Inala Nanango Traeger
Last election 48 seats 39 seats 3 seats
Current seats 48 seats 38 seats 3 seats
Seats needed 9 44
 
Leader No leader No leader Jason Costigan
Party Greens One Nation NQ First
Leader since N/A N/A 18 November 2019 (2019-11-18)
Leader's seat N/A N/A Whitsunday
Last election 1 seat 1 seat New party
Current seats 1 seat 1 seat 1 seat
Seats needed 46 46 46
Incumbent Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ).

Date

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following this election held every 4 years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Under the legislation, the caretaker period will commence on 5 October 2020, 26 days prior to the election date.[2]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, consideration is being given to holding this election as a full postal ballot.[3]

Background
Main articles: 2017 Queensland state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election

At the 2017 election, Labor won majority government with 48 of 93 seats. The Liberal Nationals won 39 seats. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party won three seats, One Nation won one seat, the Greens won one seat and Independent Sandy Bolton won the seat of Noosa.

Labor has won all but one state election since 1989, and has only been out of government for five years since then. It lost its majority in 1996, giving way to a Coalition minority government that was defeated in 1998. In 2012, it suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history, but regained power in 2015.

Registered parties

Since the previous election, 2017, four political parties have been registered by Queensland's Electoral Commission: the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, North Queensland First (the party of former Liberal National MP Jason Costigan), the Animal Justice Party, and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party.

Parties registered in Queensland are:

Polling

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Graphical summary
Primary vote.
Two-party-preferred vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last state election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Poll results
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LNP Green ON Other ALP LNP
7 June 2020 YouGov[4] 32% 38% 12% 12% 6% 48% 52%
7 February 2020 YouGov[5] 34% 35% 10% 15% 6% 50% 50%
30 August 2019 YouGov[6] 32% 37% 13% 13% 5% 49% 51%
13–14 February 2019 YouGov[7] 35% 35% 11% 8% 11% 52% 48%
7–8 November 2018 YouGov[8] 36% 34% 11% 10% 9% 53% 47%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov[9] 35% 37% 11% 10% 7% 51% 49%
9–10 May 2018 YouGov[10] 38% 35% 10% 12% 5% 53% 47%
7–8 Feb 2018 YouGov[11] 37% 36% 10% 10% 7% 52% 48%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition
25 Nov 2017 election 35.4% 33.7% 10.0% 13.7% 7.2% 51.2% 48.8%
21–24 Nov 2017 Newspoll[12] 36% 34% 10% 13% 7% 52.5% 47.5%
24 Nov 2017 Galaxy[13] 37% 35% 9% 12% 7% 52% 48%
20 Nov 2017 ReachTEL[14] 34% 30% 10% 17% 9% 51% 49%
Better premier/approval polling
Date Firm Better premier Palaszczuk Frecklington
Palaszczuk Frecklington Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
12 June 2020 Liberal National Party[15] 42% 19% - - - -
7 June 2020 YouGov[5] 44% 23% 49% 33% 26% 29%
7 February 2020 YouGov[5] 34% 22% 29% 44% 23% 33%
30 August 2019 YouGov[16] 34% 29% 34% 45% 30% 30%
13–14 February 2019 YouGov[7] 47% 27% 48% 38% 31% 35%
7–8 November 2018 YouGov[8] 43% 26% 46% 37% 35% 29%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov[9] 41% 38% 31% 26%
9–10 May 2018 YouGov[10] 47% 27% 46% 38% 31% 28%
7–8 Feb 2018 YouGov[11] 42% 31%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition

Notes

    References
    1. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland-election-2017/meet-the-women-who-run-queensland-20180208-p4yzr2.html
    2. "Constitution (Fixed TermParliament) Amendment Act 2015". Queensland Government. 2015. Archived from the original on 10 April 2020. Retrieved 10 April 2020.
    3. Election could be a full postal vote Seniors News 10 April 2020
    4. "YouGov: Labor's vote shrivels, as LNP surges". Courier Mail.
    5. "YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 7 February 2020. Archived from the original on 7 February 2020. Retrieved 7 February 2020.
    6. "YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to state LNP in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 30 August 2019. Archived from the original on 21 December 2019. Retrieved 15 September 2019.
    7. "YouGov Galaxy: Labor 35, LNP 35, Greens 11, One Nation 8 in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 10 November 2018. Archived from the original on 30 August 2019. Retrieved 30 August 2019.
    8. "YouGov Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 10 November 2018. Archived from the original on 10 November 2018. Retrieved 10 November 2018.
    9. "YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to state Labor in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 12 August 2018. Archived from the original on 12 August 2018. Retrieved 12 August 2018.
    10. "YouGov Galaxy: 53-47 to state Labor in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 13 May 2018. Archived from the original on 16 April 2019. Retrieved 13 May 2018.
    11. "YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to state Labor in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 12 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 12 February 2018.
    12. "Queensland election: swing to ALP but Hanson strings attached". The Australian. Retrieved 25 November 2017.
    13. "Queensland Election 2017 galaxy poll predicts win for Labor and Premier Annastacia Palaszcuk". The Courier Mail. Retrieved 23 November 2017.
    14. "Labor leads LNP by 2 points in Qld: Poll". Sky News. Archived from the original on 23 November 2017. Retrieved 21 November 2017.
    15. Wardill, Steven (2020). "Deb Frecklington trails Annastacia Palaszczuk in popularity contest: LNP polling". Courier Mail.
    16. "YouGov Galaxy: 51–49 to State LNP in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 30 August 2019. Archived from the original on 24 December 2019. Retrieved 24 December 2019.
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